決心差很多 越南「全產品履歷」，台灣「產地證明」

 【雙魚之論】英文拷到 G / D 找中文翻譯

Tariffs are within the jurisdiction of sovereign nations or independent customs territories. If two countries have inconsistent standards for determining the origin of goods, the importing country (e.g., the U.S.) holds authoritative judgment over the tariffs applied to imported items.
Over the past decades, Taiwan has profited significantly in this part, relying on the relatively lenient "Certificate of Origin" review process, essentially continuing to play both sides. In contrast, Vietnam has provided to the US a comprehensive "product history" of its entire supply chain, demonstrating that the proportion of components from a third country (e.g., China) is below a certain threshold, thereby adhering to U.S. customs regulations.
Comparing Taiwan and Vietnam, there is a clear disparity in their recognition and resolve to address the tariff war.

關稅，是主權國家或獨立關稅區的管轄權限，因此，若兩國對於產定認定的標準不一致，進口物品的關稅，當然以徵收關稅的一方（美方）之認定具權威性。
台灣，過去幾十年在這部份獲利不少，因此，止步於「產地證明」一個很鬆散的審查證書，等於還在兩面取巧；但越南卻提出整個供應鏈履歷的「產品履歷」，證明第三國（中國）的零組件在一定比例以下，從而尊重美國海關的規定。
比較台越兩國，面對關稅戰的認知與決心實在差很多。

中國商品美台定義不同 恐淪為中洗產地    大紀元 20250429

美國對中共祭出145%高關稅，立委吳秉叡29日表示，台美對商品原產地的認定有落差，可能會引發台灣幫中共「洗產地」的疑慮，政府若還不調整，「要等著垮台嗎？」行政院長卓榮泰說，未來要透過談判機制，希望把雙方不同的標準對齊，或者進行改進。

再現「和平白癡」 韓國議員提案獨善其身

【雙魚之論】英文拷到 G / D 找中文翻譯
On April 29, the bill asserting that Taiwan’s conflict with China is irrelevant to South Korea—and thus calling on the South Korean government to refrain from any involvement, whether through military, economic, political means, or even public statements—was introduced by a congressman who served as former Minister of Justice of South Korea. Even more striking, the bill also seeks to prohibit the deployment of the 28,500 U.S. troops stationed in Korea to any overseas missions. Notably, it was co-signed by at least 21 lawmakers from across party lines, indicating that this is not a fringe or partisan position. However, the sheer ignorance these individuals display toward the geopolitical realities of the region is nothing short of astonishing.認為台灣被中國侵略與韓國沒有關係，從而提出要求政府不干預台灣事務，不僅要避免使用軍事資源、經濟或政治等手段，也不要發表任何言論或行動，反而還要求2.85萬名駐韓美軍不能向海外部署的法案是韓國的前法務部長。至於同意提案而簽署的有跨黨派至少21名議員，顯然不是少數或政黨的意見。但這些人對地緣政治現實的無知程度，實在令人瞠目結舌。

南韓議員提案要求政府禁止介入台海衝突 駐韓美軍也不許動用    自由 20250429

由南韓前法務部長曹國創立的「祖國革新黨」議員金峻亨今（29日）向國會提出「避台」法案，要求政府宣布，若台灣發生緊急事態時，不要以任何方式進行干預，該提案已經獲得至少21名議員贊成。

朝鮮助俄參戰公開化

俄總參謀長公開證實朝鮮出兵援俄 俄外交部：永遠不會忘記朝鮮朋友    法廣 20240427

俄羅斯官方周六（4月26日）證實藉助朝軍之援收復庫爾斯克，首次正式承認朝鮮派兵參戰，強調俄朝軍事同盟。克林姆林宮公開了總統普京與俄羅斯武裝力量總參謀長格拉西莫夫視頻會議的內容。

四軸心國齊聚烏克蘭戰場 中共更深入烏克蘭作戰

【雙魚之論】英文拷到 G / D 找中文翻譯
Strategic Commentary: Escalation Indicators in the Ukraine Conflict (April 28, 2025)

In addition to Iran’s longstanding involvement in the Ukraine war through the supply of drones to Russia, new developments have emerged.
On April 8, reports surfaced that Ukrainian forces captured two of six Chinese soldiers allegedly fighting alongside Russian units.
On April 26, Russia officially confirmed the participation of North Korean troops.
On April 28, intelligence indicated a rotational deployment of China's elite 82nd Group Army, specifically the 127th Medium Combined Arms Brigade, into the Ukrainian theater.

解放軍到烏克蘭戰場 Oceanner＠X 20250428

解放軍到烏克蘭戰場    Oceanner＠X 20250428

25/4/28. 消息指出，部分人士已分析確定被派到烏俄前線的中國解放軍部隊，如第127中型合成旅(約6000人)的部分成員輪調到烏克蘭

第127中型合成旅隸屬於第82集團軍，而第82集團軍是中國裝備最精良、訓練最有素的集團軍，任務是戍衛北京，軍部在河北省保定市，評估新裝備並更新作戰模式

 “Some analysts have identified specific PLA units deployed to Russia/Ukraine. For example, personnel from the 127th Medium Combined Arms Brigade (CAB) (about 6,000 personnel), the best unit in PLA history, rotate into Ukraine. The 127th CAB is part of the 82nd Group Army (GA), which is the best equipped and trained GA in China. The 82nd GA is tasked to guard Beijing and evaluate the latest equipment and update doctrine”

https://x.com/Oceanworldfree/status/1916692746162631117?fbclid=IwY2xjawJ8Bo9leHRuA2FlbQIxMABicmlkETE5SWJvTGl3d2VXQ3FzNFFjAR6_P5MICO9y-p007JSHYzcPczX4E391DoulxeE1IrAhTxYpAu6oVWwgBN59Pw_aem_ZfLxXvfsjViF6L2_j4BTSQ
 

台灣中國關係獨一無二，無法比擬綠卡或楓葉卡

【雙魚之論】英文拷到 G / D 找中文翻譯
中國居住證與定居證有何不同 差異一次看懂
fter the 2024 election, the Kuomintang (KMT), recognizing that it was unlikely to return to power on its own anytime soon, turned to cooperation with the Taiwan People's Party (TPP) to secure control of the Legislative Yuan. As a result, beyond exhibiting political confusion and a lack of direction, the KMT has increasingly resorted to labeling its competitors without regard for the facts.
At first glance, statements by Kinmen legislator Chen Yu-jen reported in the media may seem reasonable. However, there are two major issues: First, the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) explicitly cited the Act Governing Relations between the People of the Taiwan Area and the Mainland Area as its legal basis, yet Chen insisted there was no legal foundation. Second, she compared the “Residence Permit for Taiwan Residents” (issued by the PRC as a prerequisite for obtaining a mainland Chinese ID) to foreign residency permits such as the U.S. Green Card or Canada’s Permanent Resident Card, arguing that the former should be deemed legitimate just like the latter. What she omitted, however, is that Taiwan and China are in a sui generis relationship—a unique legal arrangement—which therefore requires special legislation to regulate cross-strait interactions. As the legal maxim goes, generalia specialibus non derogant—a law governing a specific subject matter (lex specialis) overrides a law that governs general matters (lex generalis).
As a legacy of post–Pacific War territorial questions, Taiwan’s sovereignty remains undetermined—it could belong to a state, become independent, form a union, or follow another path. In the meantime, it operates under self-governance. This autonomous status means that Taiwan exercises jurisdiction without full sovereignty, and that it stands in a relationship of mutual non-subordination with China. To avoid sovereignty disputes between Taiwan and China, the current legal framework regulates only matters of jurisdiction. Furthermore, given China’s ongoing preparations for aggression and annexation, the PRC’s “Residence Permit for Taiwan Residents” cannot be equated with the U.S. Green Card or Canadian PR Card, nor can it be allowed to enable Taiwanese nationals to hold dual identification.
The same principle applies at the technical level of administrative management: it is essential first to distinguish clearly between the two regions and their respective populations. Doing so ensures that, whether the future holds separation or integration, any course of action can be implemented more smoothly. If these distinctions are not defined now, any future resolution of Taiwan’s status could become unenforceable in practice.
Deliberately blurring identities to facilitate future decisions—perhaps that’s exactly what Beijing has in mind.
Chen Yu-jen and her KMT colleague Weng Hsiao-Ling appear particularly concerned about civil rights—perhaps they themselves have applied for a “Residence Permit for Taiwan Residents”? If so, their qualifications as legislators would naturally be void.

2024年選後，國民黨自覺執政無望但與民眾黨合作就可以掌握立法權，於是政治表現得無方向感的混亂之外，更變得不管事實如何只管貼標籤。
報導中金門立委陳玉珍所言乍看之下合理，但一者陸委會明明有說明依據的是《兩岸人民關係條例》，但陳玉珍硬說無法律依據；二者，她又比照美國綠卡、加拿大楓葉卡等他國居留權例子，認定作為辦理中國大陸居民身分證前置作業的「台灣居民定居證」也應一體合法，她卻不提台灣與中國是特殊狀態，故設置了特別法管理台灣與中國人民來往的事務。特別法優於普通法，故優先適用。
作為太平洋戰爭後領土地位議題，台灣主權尚未確認誰屬—可能屬於某國，可能獨立或其他，無論如何現在是自治狀態。自治狀態表示台灣的管轄權不在其主權之下，或稱與中國互不隸屬。在迴避台灣與中國的主權糾紛下，法律架構下僅規範管轄事務。再加上中國對台灣有侵略與併吞的議題與實質準備，因此，「台灣居民定居證」無法比照綠卡或楓葉卡，允許雙重存在。
在行政管理的技術層次也是一樣的，必須要先區分兩地與其上的人民，對未來無論是分隔或統合處理上都很便利。若不先定義清楚，台灣地位未來有了決定，就無法執行。將身分搞混以利於未來的決定，大概就是北京的心思吧？
報導中陳玉珍似乎很在意公民權，大概自己也有申請「台灣居民定居證」吧？若是如此，立委資格就自然取消。

持大陸定居證恐失台灣身分？陳玉珍打臉：那美國綠卡呢    中時 20250424

在中國設戶籍，即喪失台灣身分

【雙魚之論】英文拷到 G / D 找中文翻譯
〈臺灣地區與大陸地區人民關係條例〉九條之一　　　臺灣地區人民不得在大陸地區設有戶籍或領用大陸地區護照。

違反前項規定在大陸地區設有戶籍或領用大陸地區護照者，除經有關機關認有特殊考量必要外，喪失臺灣地區人民身分及其在臺灣地區選舉、罷免、創制、複決、擔任軍職、公職及其他以在臺灣地區設有戶籍所衍生相關權利，並由戶政機關註銷其臺灣地區之戶籍登記；但其因臺灣地區人民身分所負之責任及義務，不因而喪失或免除。 

在陸設籍喪失台灣身分 陸委會：包含持中國身分證與定居證    中央社 20240523

怪事！北京中路式拱橋 Balanced Arch（潮白河橋），起火坍塌

【雙魚之論】英文拷到 G / D 找中文翻譯
似乎是（預鑄）混凝土床版，很奇怪的設計。但是從照片，看不出拱肋的結構為混凝土拱或鋼拱。
另外，怎會起火？起火會導致橋塌？原來是有臨時工程在進行中。也有說起火好幾次。
從照片遠端看起來是在錨碇部進行什麼高溫工程（換填Grouting）反而鋼絞索與夾具失去連結力。

黃海變內海 中韓「離於島」（蘇岩礁）爭議將在起

 【雙魚之論】英文拷到 G / D 找中文翻譯

In 2007, a dispute arose between China and South Korea over a submerged reef in the East China Sea known as “Ieodo” (also called Socotra Rock), which lies 4.5 meters below the high-tide line. At the time, South Korea dropped a commemorative coin onto the reef to assert its territorial claim. China, needing South Korea’s electronic technology, refrained from taking aggressive action; instead, the two sides only agreed on a Provisional Maritime Zone (PMZ). Still, many believed that reigniting the dispute was only a matter of time.
Now, China has installed an aquaculture facility on the reef, converted from an oil drilling platform. Based on its past behavior in the South China Sea, it is expected that China will soon expand the structure into an artificial island and subsequently declare territorial waters, an exclusive economic zone, and continental shelf rights around it. The strategic goal appears to be turning the Yellow Sea into a de facto Chinese inland sea.
Meanwhile, South Korea’s presidential election is scheduled for June 3, with the country on the verge of electing a pro-China candidate, Lee Jae-myung, who currently holds close to 50% in the polls.

2007年中韓之間就因為位於東海，高潮線以下4.5公尺的礁石「離於島」（蘇岩礁）有過爭議，當時韓國投下銅板標示為領土。因為中國需要韓國的電子技術，故暫且不搶佔，只協議「臨時措施區」（PMZ）。但判斷重啟爭議只是時間問題。
現在中國則以改裝自鑽油平台的養殖漁業設施，佔據該礁石。根據南海經驗，不久之後就會擴張為人造島，並宣示領海、專屬經濟區、大陸棚等主權與主權權利。其效果旨在將黃海內海化。但韓國即將在6月3日選出親中的總統李在民，他現在持有近50％支持率。

中國在黃海建大型平臺 韓媒：與中國佔有南海如出一轍    央廣 20250423

韓國外交部21日證實中國在黃海（韓國稱「西海」）與韓國的爭議海域「臨時措施區」（PMZ）擅自安裝了一座大型海上建築。《朝鮮日報》引述韓國政府指「中國侵犯海洋主權」，如果中國當局不願意拆除，韓國將在該水域安裝對應建築。

習近平像黑幫老大 李顯龍夫人何晶轉貼Michael Petraeu文章

李顯龍夫人何晶轉貼文：習近平像黑幫老大    NOWnews 2020421

新加坡前總理李顯龍夫人何晶今（21）日在臉書又出現驚人之舉，她轉發了一篇新加坡評論平台的文章，標題直酸中國國家主席習近平執政12年來「一直表現得像個黑幫老大」，掀起議論。

何晶在臉書轉發新加坡評論平台《Critical Spectator》的文章，這篇文章是波蘭籍評論員皮崔尤烏斯(Michael Petraeus)撰寫，文章以「如果習近平過去12年沒有像個黑幫老大一樣行事，中國今天在世界上會擁有更大的影響力」為題，內容一開始便大酸，「習近平在東南亞持續不斷的魅力攻勢真是滑稽可笑，暴露出中國目前的處境有多麼糟糕，竟然要皇帝本人來懇求與十多年來一直被他無恥掠奪的鄰國合作。」

文中提及，想像一下習近平談「抵制對抗」和「保護主義」。正是這個人將九段線強加於東協國家，違反國際法宣稱南海大部分地區為北京所有，在有爭議的島嶼上建造中國軍事設施，並利用海警騷擾其他國家的船隻，現在他竟然敢站出來說「親愛的朋友們！讓我們共同努力！讓我們抵制對抗！」

建立美國優先的國務院組織

Building an America First State Department    Dos 20250422 / 割蘿蔔外電譯站翻譯

Press Statement

盧比歐發佈美國國務院組織改造的草案圖，具體變動的內容如下：

一、最高層級的改變

川普關稅 「大聲說話，手持大棒」Speak loudly and carry a big stick

【雙魚之論】英文拷到 G / D 找中文翻譯
川普列舉的8項非關稅型態的貿易障礙，是美國與各國多年貿易談判中的議題，一點都不新。
川普只是面對沉痾，修改羅斯福總統「大棒外交」（Big Stick Diplomacy）的「溫和說話，手持大棒」Speak softly and carry a big stick，變成「大聲說話，手持大棒」Speak loudly and carry a big stick.而已

The desire to reform the global trading system and put American industry on

NON-TARIFF CHEATING: Currency Manipulation VATs which act as tariffs and export subsidies Dumping Below Cost Export Subsidies and Other Govt. Subsidies Protective Agricultural Standards (e.g., no genetically engineered corn in EU) Protective Technical Standards (Japan’s bowling ball test) Counterfeiting, Piracy, and IP Theft (Over $1 trillion a year) Transshipping to EVADE Tariffs!!!

非關稅欺騙： 貨幣操縱 增值稅作為關稅和出口補貼 低於成本傾銷 出口補貼和其他政府補貼 保護性農業標準（例如，歐盟禁止基因工程玉米） 保護性技術標準（日本的保齡球測試） 假冒、盜版和知識產權盜竊（每年超過1萬億美元） 轉運（洗產地）以逃避關稅！！！

 

沈榮欽論〈重建全球貿易體系的使用手冊〉

〈重建全球貿易體系的使用手冊〉　A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System    沈榮欽FB 20250417

一夜之間，幾乎所有台灣媒體的標題都是「美債危機要爆了？楊金龍憂金融市場崩潰」，不過這個標題有相當的誤導性。

史蒂芬米蘭（Stephen Miran）是美國哈德遜灣資本管理公司的高級研究員，川普於去年 12 月提名他為經濟顧問委員會主席候選人，於是他在 11 月寫的《A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System》一時之間洛陽紙貴，等到他上個月上任之後，之前傳說的《海湖莊園協議》就在華爾街金融圈熱議，台灣金融圈更吵得沸沸揚揚，比美國還熱。

Grok：特里芬困境（Triffin Dilemma）

Q：進一步說明Triffin Dilemma，以及為何「美國需維持貿易逆差以提供全球儲備資產，導致美元高估」

Grok：特里芬困境（Triffin Dilemma）進一步說明

特里芬困境是由經濟學家羅伯特·特里芬（Robert Triffin）於1960年代提出的理論，用以描述在布雷頓森林體系下，美元作為全球儲備貨幣所面臨的結構性矛盾。該困境揭示了一個核心問題：作為全球儲備貨幣的發行國，美國必須提供足夠的美元流動性以滿足國際貿易和金融需求，但這可能導致貿易逆差和美元信心危機，從而威脅其貨幣穩定性。以下詳細解釋其機制及其與美元高估、貿易逆差的關聯。

社會力的反撲 記419「守護台灣、拒絕統戰」大會

At the April 19 recall rally organized by civic groups on Ketagalan Boulevard, three national flags were identified—the flags of the United States, Japan, and the Republic of China (Taiwan)—but notably, no political party banners were present. This phenomenon carries several important implications:

1. The rally was not led by the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, though they may have offered some support;
2. It signaled a societal backlash against deviant politics and unaccountable politicians;
3. Civil society, particularly non-governmental organizations, took the initiative—reaffirming the existence of a “Taiwan Consensus”;
4. This civic force, driven primarily by young people, especially females, reflects a collective desire to move beyond Taiwan’s historical trauma and focus on building the future;
5. After twelve years of evolution, the idea of a “Taiwan Consensus” first proposed by former President Tsai Ing-wen in 2012 presidential campaign has come to represent a shared conviction: to resist communism and safeguard Taiwan. It is a common determination that our democratic and free way of life must not be forcibly altered by the Chinese Communist Party;
6. This principle—resisting communism and safeguarding Taiwan—can be encapsulated in a single term: “Republic of China (Taiwan)”;
7. If the Kuomintang continues to oppose this civic force and maintains its pro-CCP orientation (including keeping disruptive legislators and Chairman Eric Chu in place), it will have no political future.

民間團體419在凱達格蘭大道舉行的大罷免集會，注意到出現三國國旗—美國旗、日本旗，但無政黨旗。此現象證明幾個意義：
1.　集會不是民進黨主導（雖然可能有幫忙）；
2.　這是社會力的反撲走偏的政治與政客；
3.　社會力出面，確認了「台灣共識」；
4.　以年輕人與女性為主導的社會力，台灣歷史悲情的一頁終要翻過去—注重未來，而非過去）；
5.　前總統蔡英文在2012年提出所謂的「台灣共識」，就是「反共保台」—沒有人希望我們的民主自由的生活被共產黨以武力橫加改變；
6.　「反共保台」彙整為一個名詞，就是「中華民國台灣」；

7.　直接抵觸社會力，國民黨除非改變其親共路線（包括罷免作亂的立委、換下朱立倫主席）否則並無政治未來可言。