州長與委員長 譚慎格＠自由 20230319

【縛雞之論】英文拷到 G / D 找中文翻譯
"Because conducted in concealed, secret diplomacy is not binding on any third parties in the international community or any stateman within the country. In extreme cases, it may even be non-binding for the parties involved. In other words, secret diplomacy is very unstable.
In my writing, after briefly reviewing the history, my impression is that throughout the decade between approximately 1960 and 1970, the United States and Chiang Kai-shek were negotiating the "preliminary issue of normalization of U.S.-China relations," including the United Nations seat and the qualification for the Security Council, but without involving the issue of Taiwan's status. Even if it ultimately led to the establishment of diplomatic relations between the United States and China, during this period, the issue of Taiwan's status was only tentatively mentioned, and there was no commitment to change its status. The Nixon guarantee was deceiving Chiang Kai-shek on the surface, but in a deeper sense, it was keeping the promise without changing Taiwan's status. They used language to mislead Chiang Kai-shek to create unrealistic expectations.
The most critical point in this article is that "the United States will retain its military presence in Taiwan until a peaceful resolution of cross-strait relations is reached." The "August 17 Communique" of 1982 appeared to stop arms sales, but the "Taiwan Relations Act" kept the promise.
In this regard, Carter's reckless normalization with the PRC was despicable!"

秘密外交，因為是秘密進行，外界無從得知，因此，對第三國或本國國內任何人都無約束力。極端的說，甚至於對當事人也無約束力。換言之，秘密外交很不穩定。
在我的寫作中，簡讀了這段歷史，得到的印象是：在整個10年當中，即約1960～1970之間，都在美蔣折衝「美中正常化的前置議題」，即包括聯合國席位、安理會資格、但並未牽涉到台灣地位的問題，即便最後是歸結到美中建交。更精確的說，期間有稍微提及台灣地位問題，但是都是試探性的嘗試—重點是並未有任何改變台灣地位的承諾。而尼克森的保證，從表面上看，是欺騙蔣介石，在更深一層看，在未改變台灣地位的背景下，也是守住承諾的，他們用的是語言技巧，讓蔣介石誤解而有不切實際的期待。
本文很重要的顯示是「美國將保留在台灣的軍事力量，直到兩岸關係出現和平解決的時候。」1982年的〈八一七公報〉似乎在停止軍售，但〈台灣關係法〉又守住承諾。
在這方面，卡特莽撞的和中共建交，真的是混蛋！

州長與委員長    譚慎格 20230319

我並不想暗示目前拜登政府和習近平政權之間，可能有什麼秘密承諾。我只是想提醒讀者，秘密諒解和私下保證是對美國外交原則的詛咒。

威爾遜（Woodrow Wilson）總統提出的「十四點和平原則」（Fourteen Points），要求「公開和平條約，以公開的方式締結，外交必須始終在眾目睽睽之下坦誠進行。」

不管人命 中國軍艦干擾民航機的GPS與VHF高度儀

【縛雞之論】英文拷到 G / D 找中文翻譯
3/16，澳洲航空飛行員發出通告：中國軍方在南海干擾民航機VHF通訊。另外，多數飛行員也在澳洲西北外海經歷可能來自戰艦的干擾使GPS無法運作。但並未有危及安全的報告。

澳航通知飛行員警惕中共軍方干擾信號    大紀元 20230320

澳航（Qantas）提醒其飛行員，警惕來自中共軍方的無線電和全球定位系統（GPS）的干擾信號。

該航空公司在週四（3月16日）發布的一份指令中說，在西太平洋和南中國海發現了干擾信號。

據《衛報》報導，澳航表示，一些飛機遇到了「據稱代表中國（中共）軍方」的超高頻（VHF）頻道的干擾，以及來自「澳洲西北大陸架」船隻的GPS干擾。

瑞士秘密金庫快炸開 中國權貴嚇趴 自由 20230319

【縛雞之論】英文拷到 G / D 找中文翻譯
Switzerland’s demands included the reciprocal exchange of bank customer data. This is how the OECD model treaty differs from the US anti-tax evasion legislation known as FATCA, the Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act enetered into forces on January 1, 2014 step by step. In addition, with the OECD model, trusts must disclose the beneficial owners and data exchange is limited to the field of taxation and therefore respects privacy concerns. -- Switzerland to back OECD tax treaty

瑞士秘密金庫快炸開 中國權貴嚇趴    自由 20230319

瑞士中立國地位及嚴格的保密措施，成為全球富豪秘密金庫，當然也成為不法分子藏金處，更是中國紅色權貴藏錢首選。在美中對峙劇烈下，瑞士股市還是中企籌資管道，IPO數量暴增。不過，俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭後，瑞士的銀行業加速制裁俄國，造成許多中國客戶憂心忡忡，唯恐小金庫曝光，近日瑞士信貸爆雷，動搖瑞士金融業信譽，中國紅色權貴快要睡不著了。

自從全球金融危機及稅務醜聞連環爆後，各國政府聯手打擊逃漏稅犯罪，瑞士也做出大讓步，在2014年經濟合作組織（OECD）的歐洲財長會議上，瑞士簽下訊息交換協議，同意自動對其它國家交出外籍人士帳戶詳細資料。

由於瑞士金融業保密傳統成為全球富豪權貴藏金處，財富管理業務規模龐大，至少佔了全球3分之1。在過去10年中，亞洲富豪已經成為了瑞士更重要的收入來源，瑞士打算要交出帳戶資料，中國權貴快崩潰。

中國紅色權貴藏金瑞士

儘管瑞士政府從未披露中國人在該國的資產規模，但2014年國際調查記者聯盟公布的文件顯示，瑞士銀行業為許多中共政治精英及其子女設立帳戶，包括前總理溫家寶的兒子。

這批文件顯示，有至少2萬名來自中國和香港富豪擁有離岸公司，涉及中共高層紅二代家族。還有5名中共中央政治局常委家屬，在英屬維京群島和庫克群島等離岸金融中心擁有離岸公司。網路更盛傳，有100名中國人在瑞士存了1.12兆美元（約台幣34兆），這些人甚至透過子女赴海外就學，將錢轉移到瑞士。

近1年來，藏金在瑞士的中國紅色權貴們最擔心的就是財富被供出。資料顯示，俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭後，瑞士加入制裁行列，約7500名俄羅斯富豪在瑞士存了461億瑞士法郎（約台幣15.3兆）的資產，一部分遭到凍結。

其中，瑞信凍結176 億瑞士法郎（約台幣5839億）的俄羅斯資產，金額超過俄羅斯在瑞士所有資產的1/3。瑞銀凍結的俄羅斯資產占其全球財富管理投資資產的 0.3%，約 75 億瑞士法郎（約台幣2488億）。

這讓中國紅色權貴們心慌，金融時報近日採訪了瑞士10家最大銀行中的6家銀行的高層主管，一致聲稱，去年年底，這絕對是（亞洲）客戶關注的話題。他們問我們，他們的錢放在這裡是否安全…現在，制裁問題已經出現在客戶面前。

一位銀行負責亞洲業務的瑞士銀行業董事則直言，有幾百位原本希望開立帳戶的外國客戶，現在沒有了。另一位瑞士銀行高層則透露，其實，目前大多數中國客戶是成功的小企業家，財富在1000萬~5000萬瑞士法郎（約台幣3.3億至16.6億）之間。

還有一件令中國權貴富豪們坐立不安的，就是瑞士信貸近期爆雷問題。瑞信近年醜聞連環爆，信譽掃地，上週每日存款流失超過 100 億瑞士法郎，瑞士官方為了保存瑞士金融業的信譽，瑞士央行出手輸血500億瑞士法郎，近期還找上瑞士銀行併購瑞信，搶親者陸續浮出水面，最後花落誰家，不僅全球關注，中國權貴們也緊盯事態發展。

 

 

評「台獨是緣起的」 國史館長陳儀深就廖文毅《台灣民本主義》中譯本新書發表會致詞

【縛雞之論】英文拷到 G / D 找中文翻譯
台獨是緣起的——台獨既不是異端邪說，也沒有那麼神聖　陳儀深館長開幕致詞稿2023.03.18下午

很痛心，在台灣，為平等揭示史實，國史館長還要不斷揭示自己的立場的公正性，而不是讓史實講話就好。

What exactly Taiwanese independence is, and why do people seek it?

台獨是緣起的——台獨既不是異端邪說，也沒有那麼神聖 陳儀深館長開幕致詞稿2023.03.18下午

台獨是緣起的——廖文毅《台灣民本主義》中譯本新書發表會    陳儀深館長開幕致詞稿2023.03.18下午

姚嘉文資政、人權館詹副館長，政治受難前輩（蔡寬裕先生、）陳中統先生、陳欽生先生，台灣教授協會會長陳俐甫教授、前會長鄭欽仁教授、艾琳達女士，以及為這本新書撰寫導論的吳叡人教授、蘇彥圖教授、參加座談的宋承恩教授，其他與會的各位女士先生：

感謝大家出席今天下午國史館舉辦的新書發表會，我知道同樣這個時間有另外的新書會以及類似性質的活動，各位還是願意撥冗來到這裡，尤其感謝。

在中訪俄之前 波蘭援贈烏克蘭4架MIG-29

北約成員首例！波蘭將提供烏克蘭4架米格-29戰機 CNN：對盟友施壓加強軍援    新頭殼 20230317

北約（NATO）成員國首例！波蘭總統杜達（Andrzej Duda）16 日宣布將援助烏克蘭 4 架 米格-29 戰機（MiG-29），這將是象徵西方堅挺基輔的重大舉措。

據美國《有線電視新聞網》（CNN）報導報導，杜達表示，未來數天內，我們將向烏克蘭移交四架運作正常的米格-29 戰機。在人道主義和軍事上支持烏克蘭，捷克和波蘭絕對走在前面。

瑞士信貸為何爆雷？

【縛雞之論】英文拷到 G / D 找中文翻譯
對小百姓而言，印象中傳奇且守口如瓶的瑞士銀行，就是瑞銀UBS（資產1.15兆瑞士法郎）與瑞士信貸Credit Suisse（資產7250億瑞士法郎）。
好奇的是，為何沙烏地阿拉伯拒絕增資？理論上，2015年兩家銀行已經有過嚴厲管制了。

瑞士信貸為何爆雷？「金融業悲劇懶人包」　借1.6兆度難關「步上矽谷銀行後塵可能性曝光」    風傳媒 20230316

近日的國際金融圈相當風聲鶴唳，自前幾日矽谷銀行（SVB）宣布破產之後，瑞士信貸（Credit Suisse簡稱CS）也爆雷，而主要的導火線就是因為沙烏地阿拉伯銀行拒絕增資，以及瑞信坦言全年業績自2022起就接連虧損。《風傳媒》帶您一次性了解。

賴清德的觀點 文明價值

【縛雞之論】英文拷到 G / D 找中文翻譯
In his speech, Vive President Lai Ching-te highlights the value of civilization. Contrast to another candidate-to-be New Taipei City Mayor Hou You-Yi's poor slogan: working hard and being persistent, which aims at the power play perspective, shows a difference miles apart.
Despite being a brief speech, the full text cannot be found anywhere. It is a missed opportunity for Vice President Lai Ching-te to publicly present his vision for his future governance as he moves toward the presidency.
The text of the remark is not on the Presidential Office webpage or Lai Ching-te's Facebook. It is a serious failure on the part of Lai Ching-te's staff.
Furthermore, the reporting by the Presidential Office and journalists, which resembles that of Xinhua News Agency, makes readers have a problem distinguishing which is original quotes and which is paraphrased content. Their reporting falls short of professional standards.

賴清德的致詞內容，就是文明的價值。相對於侯侯的權力觀點，相差何止千里。
遺憾的是，明明就是簡短的致詞，卻片找不到致詞全文。這是副總統賴清德邁向總統之路，對外公開未來施政觀點的起手式，可惜全文連總統府，或賴清德FB上面也沒有。這是賴清德幕僚的失職。
另外，總統府與天下記者的報導，寫法很像新華社，根本看不出哪裡是原文用語，或者哪裡是轉述。很糟糕的訓練。

副總統出席「2023半導體世紀對談－全球晶片戰爭與臺灣的關鍵實力」    總統府 20230316

張忠謀：工作文化是台灣人一大優勢，美國人做不到 天下雜誌 2023316

【縛雞之論】英文拷到 G / D 找中文翻譯
I agree with the views of Morris Chang, founder of TSMC.
The convergence of the chip industry in Taiwan, dynamic memory in South Korea, chip design in the United States, and advanced materials in Japan is due to cultural factors. These factors result in cost-effectiveness and create a positive cycle that amplifies convergence.
Last winter, in a closed-door meeting, I pointed out that many people view the semiconductor industry as Taiwan's "silicon shield" - an asset to protect Taiwan from China's aggression. However, that may not be the case when considering the mindset of the communists.
To make the shield workable, China must benefit from Taiwan's chip industry, meaning that the interests of the two are aligned.
If China acknowledges that it cannot derive any benefits from Taiwan's chip industry due to strict sanctions, then Taiwan's chip development could be detrimental to China. Consequently, China may not hesitate to attack Taiwan, without considering whether the chip industry will be impacted or destroyed in the conflict. Under such circumstances, Taiwan's chip industry is not a factor that protects Taiwan but rather a factor that encourages China's aggression.
Therefore, the best tactic is to make China need Taiwan and be unable to produce an independent and advanced chip industry at the same time.

美國摧毀TSMC？真是笑話。戰爭下，TSMC自然無法運作。是誰啟動戰爭呢？

【縛雞之論】英文拷到 G / D 找中文翻譯
It is reported that Robert C. O'Brien, an American attorney who served as the 27th United States national security advisor from 2019 to 2021, anticipated that the US would destroy TSMC if the PRC invades Taiwan.
However, some people are not sure whether the theory O'Brien "raised" was due to media misunderstanding of his expression, but it is highly possible.
TSMC, which relies on high-end materials and machine maintenance from manufacturers abroad, would cease to function within weeks if Taiwan were to be blockaded by the PLA.
TSMC would cease to function not because of the US's destruction, but due to the nature of the system, as explained by Morris Chan and Mark Liu in TV interviews."

Robert C. O'Brien    Twitter 20230314

Chip plants require energy, equipment & expertise from abroad; all would be denied if the PRC invaded. Most importantly, Taiwan’s skilled engineers, scientists & executives would flee for freedom. A PRC invasion will never result in the CCP controlling the world chip market. 3/3 

The only nation that has military plans to capture Taiwan & its industrial base is the People’s Republic of China. America only has plans to protect Taiwan & its people. The fact is that Taiwans chip plants won’t function if the PRC invades. 2/3 

Because Taiwan is free, enjoys the rule of law & has some of the most ingenious hardworking people in the world, it has prospered. Its incredible semi-conductor industry is a prime example of Taiwan’s success. It is the envy of the world - and is eyed by Beijing. 1/3

MQ-9侵犯什麼？

【縛雞之論】英文拷到 G / D 找中文翻譯

1. Does Russia have a legitimate basis for establishing an airspace regime under the guise of a special military operation during an invasion of another sovereign state?
2. Is it justifiable for Russia to create a temporary airspace regime, despite potential implications for sovereignty and international law?
3. Can the US military's drone legitimately claim rights if it intentionally disables its transponder?

Russian ambassador views US drone’s Black Sea flight as provocation    TASS 20230315

… The Russian Defense Ministry said that Russian airspace control systems have detected an American MQ-9 unmanned aerial vehicle on Tuesday, flying over the Black Sea near the Crimean Peninsula towards the state border of the Russian Federation. The drone flew with its transponders off, violating the boundaries of the temporary airspace regime established for the special military operation, communicated to all users of international airspace, and published in accordance with international standards. 俄羅斯國防部表示，俄羅斯防空系統週二探測到一架美國MQ-9無人機，飛越克里米亞半島附近的黑海，朝向俄羅斯聯邦的國家邊界。無人機在關閉應答器的情況下飛行，違反了為特別軍事行動建立的臨時空域管制的邊界，與國際空域的所有用戶進行通信，並按照國際標準運作。

The ministry added that as a result of quick maneuvering, the drone went into an unguided flight with a loss of altitude and collided with the water surface. The ministry stressed that the Russian aircraft did not use on-board weapons, did not come into contact with the unmanned aerial vehicle, and returned safely to their home airfield. 該部補充說，由於快速機動，無人機進入無法導引飛行，失去高度並與墜落水面。國防部強調，俄羅斯飛機無使用機載武器，未與無人機發生接觸，安全返回本國機場。

MQ-9 Reaper is a modular reconnaissance and strike unmanned aerial vehicle developed by General Atomics Aeronautical Systems. It is equipped with a turboprop engine and can develop a speed of more than 400 kilometer per hour. The maximal flight duration is 24 hours. The drone is capable of carrying air-to-surface and air-to-air missiles, and laser-guided bombs. MQ-9「死神」是通用原子航空系統公司研製的模塊化偵察打擊無人機。它配備渦輪螺旋槳發動機，時速可達 400 多公里。最長飛行時間為 24 小時。該無人機能夠攜帶空對地和空對空導彈以及雷射導引炸彈。

算了吧，中國的外交業績

囚犯部隊：政府徵 傭兵赦？

【縛雞之論】英文拷到 G / D 找中文翻譯
Taiwanese news reports tend to focus on sensational details rather than essential aspects of a story. A recent case in point is the report on Russian government's evil conscription of prisoners with severe sentences for high-risk field combat. In fact, it has been long practiced in war history.
It is not a new invention, many countries utilized the approach throughout history. However, It is crucial to emphasize that the same government that conscripted the prisoners is also responsible for granting them amnesty since they are effectively integrated into mercenary organizations under its authority.
The situation in Russia differs from previous examples, as the government conscripted the prisoners, who were then pardoned and released by the mercenary organization—an illegal civilian group. Although the organization issued advices, its actions still constituted a significant legal flaw. This situation highlights the probability of Russia's gradual disintegration as a nation.
Considering these circumstances, one may question the wisdom of Xi Jinping's recent visit to Russia. Is it a lack of judgment or anything else?

台灣的報導常常沒抓到重點，只強調聳動的部份。從報導來看，俄國徵召罪犯從事高危險的戰鬥行為，是政府的權力，也是歷史上各國政府出現過的行為。不過，由政府以公權力為名義徵召，並使其加入傭兵組織，也應該由政府以公權力為赦免。
從報導看來，似乎是政府徵召，但卻由傭兵（民間非法組織）赦免與釋放。雖然傭兵組織有告誡，但在法律程序上有重大缺失。它代表的意義是，俄羅斯在慢性解體中。
再聯想一下，此時去俄國訪問的習近平是缺乏智慧，或是有其他原音？

縱虎歸山！俄首批參戰囚犯存活半年獲赦免 遭告誡「不要強姦女人」    自由 20230315

俄羅斯為了擴充兵力徵召囚犯上戰場，參戰滿6個月後若幸運存活，這些囚犯將獲得特赦。俄國傭兵組織「瓦格納集團」（Wagner Group）頭目普里格津（Yevgeny Prigozhin）日前宣布，第一批被招募來參戰的囚犯已經完成了他們的契約，犯罪前科被一筆勾銷，如今們可以在俄羅斯自由做想做的事情。