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2024-03-02

大條事情 俄羅斯將開闢烏西戰線?


The Republic of Moldova has been an independent state since 1991, following the dissolution of the USSR. The name The Republic of Moldova was designated by the United Nations. In contrast, Transnistria, an eastern strip that split from Moldova in 1991-1992, declared itself independent as the Pridnestrovian Moldovan Republic (PMR) and remains outside the control of the Moldovan government.
While Moldovan is the primary language in Transnistria, an autonomous region of Moldova, and should be considered an internal part of Moldova; However, some envision it as an enclave-like territory with close ties to Russia for 220 thousands Russian citizens reside there, besides 1,000 Russian soldiers.
The recent resolution by the Transnistrian parliament, addressed to the Russian State Duma (lower house) and Federation Council (upper house), requests diplomatic, economic, and military protection from Russia against pressure from Moldova. This move could potentially create a new western front for Russia in the ongoing conflict with Ukraine, encircling the latter, and further escalating tensions with NATO.

1991 年蘇聯解體後,摩爾多瓦共和國 (聯合國指定名稱) 成為一個獨立國家。相比之下,脫離摩爾多瓦 (1991-1992 ) 的東部地區「聶斯特河沿岸區」 (Придне斯特羅維亞摩爾達維亞共和國),宣稱自己獨立,目前仍未受摩爾多瓦政府控制。
雖然摩爾多瓦語在「聶斯特河沿岸區」通行,且該區曾被視為摩爾多瓦的自治區,但有些人認為它應被視為摩爾多瓦的內部領土;然而,另一些人則將其視為與俄羅斯關係密切的飛地,因為除了駐紮那裡的 1,000 名俄羅斯士兵以外,該地區還有大約 22 萬俄羅斯公民居住。
最近,「聶斯特河沿岸區」議會通過了一項決議,向俄羅斯國家杜馬 (下議院) 和聯邦委員會 (上議院) 尋求外交、經濟和軍事保護,以抵禦來自摩爾多瓦的壓力。此舉可能為俄羅斯在與烏克蘭的持續衝突中開啟新的西部戰線,包圍烏克蘭並進一步加劇與北約的緊張局勢。

東歐小國摩爾多瓦分離區要求俄羅斯保護 美:密切觀察    太報 20240301

東歐小國摩爾多瓦親俄分離主義人士控制的聶斯特河沿岸區Transnistria數百名官員週三(2/28)在該區首府蒂拉斯浦(Tiraspol)召開會議,要求俄羅斯保護協助其經濟,對抗摩爾多瓦的「壓力」。親歐的摩爾多瓦政府駁斥此舉為搏版面的政治宣傳。

2024-03-01

「互不隸屬」,主體也有不同

The European Parliament passed resolutions concerning the EU's 2023 Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) and Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) on Wednesday, February 28, 2024, emphasizing that Taiwan and China are not subordinate to each other.
This is a slight difference from President Tsai's statements, where she first said "the Republic of China and the People's Republic of China should not be subordinate to each other[1]" in her National Day Ceremony address in 2021, and later stated "the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China are not subordinate to each other[2]" on January 14, 2024.
The use of "Taiwan and China" compared to "ROC" and "PRC", or "ROC (Taiwan)" and "PRC", reflects the complex nature of the cross-Strait issue. On one hand, the status of Taiwan remains undetermined since the end of WWII, while on the other hand, Taiwan and China have a history of armed conflicts and China claims sovereignty over Taiwan.

歐盟議會於 2024 2 28 日(星期三)通過了有關歐盟 2023 年共同外交與安全政策 (CFSP) 和共同安全與防禦政策 (CSDP) 的決議,強調台灣和中國互不隸屬。
這與蔡英文總統的聲明略有不同。蔡總統在 2021 年的國慶典禮致辭中首先表示「中華民國和中華人民共和國互不隸屬」,並於 2024 1 14 日進一步表示「中華民國(台灣)和中華人民共和國互不隸屬」。
使用「台灣和中國」與「中華民國」和「中華人民共和國」,或「中華民國(台灣)」和「中華人民共和國」等字眼,反映了兩岸問題的複雜性。一方面,台灣自二戰結束以來,其地位仍未確定;另一方面,台灣和中國存在武裝衝突歷史,而中國則宣稱擁有台灣主權。

歐洲議會:台灣、中國互不隸屬 只有台灣民選政府 可在國際上代表台灣人民    自由 20240301

歐洲議會大會廿八日通過「共同外交暨安全政策」(CFSP)及「共同安全暨防禦政策」(CSDP)兩項年度執行報告決議案。外交部指出,這是繼去年底通過「歐中關係」報告,反對中國持續扭曲聯合國大會第二七五八號決議文後,首次強調台灣與中國互不隸屬只有台灣民選政府可以在國際上代表台灣人民。

2024-02-29

核武,還是威懾的工具

聯合報引述報導不精準(無法閱覽FT),甚至有矛盾,自由時報就好多了。
或許有背後的因素FT沒有報導,比方說俄羅斯對烏克蘭使用核武的門檻較高,原因可能不僅在美國因素,而包括了大國不相互使用核武的協議,這樣一來對象就包括中國。實際上,俄羅斯卻防範中國,有率先使用的規劃。
總之,核武是一種威懾工具,無論在戰術或戰略領域,甚至於在外交領域的威脅要率先使用也是一樣的思考。

俄文件揭戰術核武門檻 領土被入侵就動用    自由 20230229

英國「金融時報」廿八日報導,俄羅斯外洩的軍事機密文件首度披露俄國動用戰術核武的條件,如敵方入侵俄國領土;俄軍也已演練過在與主要世界強權爆發衝突的初期階段,就動用核武,演練的假想情況還包括中國入侵俄國。

侵烏戰爭兩週年的外交威懾 Diplomatic Dance of Deterrence on Ukraine

Two years into the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, there have been a series of dialogues about deterrence.
Seeing Russia's renewed aggression in recent weeks, including Putin's flight on a modernized Tu-160M nuclear-capable bomber, is seen by some as an attempt to intimidate Europeans at a time when US support is thrown into doubt by the upcoming presidential election.
In response, French President Emmanuel Macron made a statement at the "Conference in Support of Ukraine" on February 26, stating that the West should not allow Russia's invasion to expand to other countries. He declared, "We will do everything we must so that Russia does not win." Macron proposed that the West should not rule out any option, including deploying ground troops to Ukraine, which represents a typical measure of deterrence response.
Following Macron's call to increase support for Ukraine, US President Joe Biden rejected the idea of deploying US troops to the country. He stated, "It's a sovereign decision that every NATO ally would have to make for themselves," and "There will be no US troops on the ground in a combat role there."
President Biden kept his course, aids is better than fights, as reflected in his December 2023 statement:  “Pay up now or you'll pay more later, forced to send U.S. troops to fight Russian soldiers when an emboldened Russian President Vladimir Putin moves in on a NATO member country.” It highlights his consistent foreign policy stance.
On the other hand, Vladmir Putin expressed “In this case, we need to talk not about the likelihood, but about the inevitability [of a conflict]. That’s how we evaluate it,” through his press secretary Dmitry Peskov.  A modest one, less than deploying tactical nuke in Belarus last year.

2024-02-23

灰色地帶極限施壓:撈無沒差,有就賺到

專家:中國試圖在與台灣的海事爭端中改變現狀建立新基線,台灣應訴諸國際尋求支持    VOA 20240222

華盛頓—從上星期以來中國與台灣在金門附近海域發生的一連串海事爭議引起國際關注,許多人擔憂台海緊張持續升溫,美國政府呼籲北京克制並與台北展開有意義對話,有分析人士也認為這是中國對台灣加壓灰色地帶手段,試圖改變台灣對其周邊海域的控制權,台灣必須訴諸國際,與週邊有同樣遭遇的國家共同採取反制作為,以免中國更加「得寸進尺」。

軍購改授權自製?

It is a common knowledge of warfare that munitions, not platform, kills the enemy.  Though there are huge aids from NATO and the countries that have shared values, the lesson war on Ukraine tells us that all country should maintain its capacity to produce munitions.

付錢卻買不到武器!美議員談軍售交付延遲:部分可由台灣自製    TVBS 20240222

美國聯邦眾議院「美國與中國共產黨戰略競爭」特別委員會主席蓋拉格(Mike Gallagher)今(22)日率跨黨派重量級議員訪團來台,致詞時表示中國大陸正分裂國家、盟友、自由世界,但他強調這種策略正在失敗,不論是民主黨還是共和黨,台灣的民進黨與國民黨,台美團結一致,反對專制的侵略。另外,針對美國軍售交付延遲嚴重一事,委員會民主黨首席議員克利胥納莫提(Raja Krishnamoorthi)也說,美國軍事防衛產業正面臨非常大的壓力,建議有些武器也可由台灣協助製造,降低世界武器供應鏈的壓力

蓋拉格率訪團在台北賓館舉行小型媒體見面會,致詞時他指出,中國共產黨日趨增加的侵略性對台海和平造成威脅,而這次中國特別委員會前來就是找出,美國要如何與其對抗已恢復和平,如今中國在國際舞台上企圖分裂國家、自由的世界,但他非常有信心,因為中國的分裂策略正在失敗,美國的民主黨、共和黨、台灣藍綠兩黨,兩國人民團結一致,共同反對其專制的侵略。

蓋拉格表示,中國這樣的獨裁專制表面上看起來很平靜穩定,實則存在許多混亂,而民主國家就像海洋,表面上看似混亂,但在波濤洶湧的海浪下,是平靜強大的,更是無法被擊敗。他說道自由的人民知道什麼是危險,他們正在為正義挺身而出,因此,民主黨和共和黨支持台灣和美國的自由,因為台灣的走向就是世界的走向。

另外,針對美國軍售交付延遲嚴重一事,委員會民主黨首席議員克利胥納莫提(Raja Krishnamoorthi)也說,美國軍事防衛產業正面臨非常大的壓力,最快的解決方法,就是讓這些生產軍事武器的產業能夠得到長期的承諾。以子彈生產為例,應該給予公司數年的訂單,而不是只有一年的訂單,這樣公司就會做更長遠的投資,來滿足長時間的軍事需求。

克利胥納莫提認為,美國應開始思考哪些軍事武器台灣可以協助製造,部分無須轉移過多智慧技術的武器,像是155公釐榴彈砲,正是全世界都短缺的,而台灣有潛力成為美國製造155公釐榴彈砲的合作夥伴。另外有些武器也可由台灣協助製造,降低世界武器供應鏈的壓力。

蓋拉格透露,武器交付延遲是重大問題,正因為這是可解決的,讓人更加沮喪,在美國內部體系中,對外軍售權被分散在國務院、國防部,對內分配給軍事委員會及眾議院外交委員會。而最好的解決方式就是持續撥款給為彈藥生產公司,讓他們生產效率能獲得最大提升。他也提出,會把台灣列為魚叉飛彈優先交付的對象,將美國庫存內200枚魚叉飛彈重新配置,並儘速交貨給台灣,


2024-02-21

20240215 NASA 首度繞飛台灣進行資料蒐集! 阿中出任務 但飛機不同啦,是Gulfstream 3

https://zh-tw.flightaware.com/live/flight/N520NA/history/20240214/2358Z/RPLC/RKPC

管碧玲:「未來我方船舶若遇大陸海警登檢,可依據標準程序不停留或轉彎避開」,是真的嗎?

【雙魚之論】英文拷到 G / D 找中文翻譯

Regarding the incident in Kinmen waters on February 14, 2024:

It is essential to recognize that Kinmen and Matsu lie within the waters delineated by China's territorial baseline, as per the tenets of sovereignty and jurisdiction, or internal waters, established by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Consequently, these waters fall under Chinese territorial sovereignty, encompassing both territorial seas and waters. However, it is acknowledged that Taiwan exercises effective control over these areas. Notably, under UNCLOS, Taiwan cannot unilaterally demarcate baselines or claim the full rights associated with territorial waters. In lieu of this, Taiwan establish "restricted or prohibited water areas and restricted zones," subject to existing power dynamics and mutual understandings. This specific issue is demonstrably fraught with political sensitivity.

The recent incident, initiated by China with no doubt, carries significant political weight. Resolving this situation necessitates negotiation and compromise on both sides. However, the claim by Taiwanese authorities that Taiwanese vessels are not obligated to obey orders from the China Coast Guard or other Chinese law enforcement agencies presents a potential complication. By issuing such an "order," the Taiwan Ocean Affairs Council may inadvertently provide legal grounds for China to argue that their vessels are similarly exempt from complying with Taiwanese law enforcement directives.
In conclusion, it is imperative to approach cross-border matters with due diligence and recognize the intricate legal and political considerations involved.

正如20240214 金門水域事件,主權與管轄權所言,金門與馬祖是位於中國領海基線內的水域,中國的領土與領海,台灣有效管轄,所以台灣無法劃定基線與主張領海等,只能設立「限制或禁止水域及限制區域」,政治上非常敏感。
此事當然是中國主動生事端,但是此事政治性很強,總要協商與妥協,但台灣這邊主管機關聲稱台灣船隻不需要聽從中國執法機關的命令,這可是會出事的。海委會如此「命令」,等於反向給中國法理證據,中國船隻無須遵從台灣方面的執法命令。
跨境事務畢竟不能喊爽就好。

管碧玲1句話陷人民於危險?前大使轟:義和團所屬海委會    中時 20240221

金門觀光船19日遭大陸海警強制登檢,兩岸金廈海域緊張情勢升溫。海委會主委管碧玲20日在立法院受訪時表示,對陸方登檢傷害人民情感表達遺憾,未來我方船舶若遇大陸海警登檢,可依據標準程序不停留或轉彎避開,並第一時間通知海巡協助。前駐紐西蘭代表介文汲20日在《盧秀芳辣晚報》節目強調,沿岸方有行政管轄權,有權要所有船隻接受檢查。管碧玲可說犯了陷人民於危險之罪,海委會也淪為「義和團海委會」。

2024-02-20

20240214 金門水域事件,主權與管轄權



【雙魚之論】英文拷到 G / D 找中文翻譯

On February 14, during the Lunar New Year Festival, a suspected Chinese smuggling speedboat capsized after crossing the border and refusing inspection in the Kinmen waters. Famous commentator Huang Peng-hsiao cited data from the Taiwan Coast Guard Administration to point out numerous suspicions, proving that the Chinese crossing-border speedboat was not an ordinary fishing boat and even had political implications.
On February 18, China issued a statement denying the existence of the Kinmen Restricted and Prohibited Waters and expanding its regular law enforcement activities to the area. This is a latest denial following Beijing’s denial of the "median line of the Taiwan Strait" in recent years, and it once again confirms China's unilateral hawkish behavior.
The incident escalated when the China Coast Guard boarded a Kinmen tourist boat for half an hour. This turned our side's simple law enforcement action into an expansion of the other side's law enforcement scope.
From our perspective, this matter is also embarrassing.
The status of Kinmen and Matsu is unique. While considered sovereign territories of China, they are currently under the jurisdiction of Taiwan, a territory with its own complex and contested legal status.  Under the context, Taiwan has not demarcated territorial waters and other areas based on the baseline of the territory in accordance with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. Instead, it has authorized the Ministry of National Defense, in accordance with Article 29.2 of the "Regulations Governing Relations between the People of the Two Sides of the Taiwan Strait," to designate restricted or prohibited waters and restricted areas. The Ministry subsequently announced these designations on June 7, 2004, with "(93) Mengshih No. 0930001493."
The special status of Kinmen and Matsu—being sovereign territories of China but under Taiwan's jurisdiction and located within China's territorial baseline—allows Beijing to play them politically. Taiwan finds it difficult to refute these claims based on law and can only resort to its own strength and factual evidence. However, with China's proximity and size, enforcing the law in these areas will be very challenging for Taiwan's Coast Guard.
Additionally, fierce competition between the United States and China has led to mutual distrust, and the so-called coordination channels between the two sides of the Strait have been blocked for years. Some commentators believe that this incident is a test China has thrown to the new president of Taiwan. If that is the case, the incident is unlikely to be resolved before May 20th. It is worth noting that the six China Coast Guard patrols on the 18th and the boarding and inspection of Taiwan’s tourist boat on the 19th  do not necessarily indicate an escalation of the incident.
The biggest fear is that China will besiege Kinmen and Matsu, or take down one of them, to pressure Taiwan into negotiations and acceptance. However, judging from the fact that six Coast Guard vessels patrolled on the 18th (still outside the restricted area) and boarded and inspected the ship on the 19th (location unknown), there is no immediate indication that the incident is likely to escalate.

2024-02-18

20240216 納瓦尼之死白宮記者會 Taimocracy翻譯

【雙魚之論】英文拷到 G / D 找中文翻譯
As major countries call on Russian President Putin to be held accountable for the death of Alexei Navalny in a prison in the Arctic Circle, the spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated, "This is Russia's internal affair, and we do not intend to have a comment on it."
Indeed, when reports emerge of numerous high-ranking Chinese officials dying under unclear circumstances either inside or outside of prison, how should officials of the Chinese Communist Party respond?
在主要國家紛紛要求俄羅斯總統普丁要對納瓦尼(Alexei Navalny)死於北極圈的監獄中時,中國外交部發言人表示「這是俄羅斯的內政。我不會發表評論。
的確如此,當中國傳出許多高官在監獄中或外面不明原因死亡時,中共官員還能怎樣回答?

20210616 〈美俄會談共同宣言〉拜登白宮記者會 Taimocracy翻譯,2024/02/18修訂)

慟納瓦尼之死 西方追究普丁責任    中時 20240218

拜登籲國會批准援以烏台預算案 澤倫斯基控普丁謀殺 歐洲各地俄使館現抗議潮

俄羅斯總統普丁政敵之一的俄羅斯反對派領袖納瓦尼(Alexei Navalny16日於北極獄中逝世,享年47歲。美國總統拜登16日盛讚納瓦尼勇於對抗普丁政權的惡行,表示普丁必定對納瓦尼之死有責任,此事再度證明普丁的暴虐。西方各國元首也稱讚納瓦尼對俄羅斯的貢獻,同時紛紛要求對普丁追究相關責任

納瓦尼之死──這是俄羅斯的內政。中共不發表評論

【雙魚之論】英文拷到 G / D 找中文翻譯
烏俄戰爭:蘇聯二次解體?
As major countries call on Russian President Putin to be held accountable for the death of Alexei Navalny in a prison in the Arctic Circle, the spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated, "This is Russia's internal affair, and we do not intend to have a comment on it."
Indeed, when reports emerge of numerous high-ranking Chinese officials dying under unclear circumstances either inside or outside of prison, how should officials of the Chinese Communist Party respond?
在主要國家紛紛要求俄羅斯總統普丁要對納瓦尼(Alexei Navalny)死於北極圈的監獄中時,中國外交部發言人表示「這是俄羅斯的內政。我不會發表評論。
的確如此,當中國傳出許多高官在監獄中或外面不明原因死亡時,中共官員還能怎樣回答?

20210616 〈美俄會談共同宣言〉拜登白宮記者會 Taimocracy翻譯,2024/02/18修訂)

慟納瓦尼之死 西方追究普丁責任    中時 20240218

拜登籲國會批准援以烏台預算案 澤倫斯基控普丁謀殺 歐洲各地俄使館現抗議潮

俄羅斯總統普丁政敵之一的俄羅斯反對派領袖納瓦尼(Alexei Navalny16日於北極獄中逝世,享年47歲。美國總統拜登16日盛讚納瓦尼勇於對抗普丁政權的惡行,表示普丁必定對納瓦尼之死有責任,此事再度證明普丁的暴虐。西方各國元首也稱讚納瓦尼對俄羅斯的貢獻,同時紛紛要求對普丁追究相關責任

Hamas人質也有美國公民

【雙魚之論】英文拷到 G / D 找中文翻譯
The reason President Biden responded to the question from the press on February 16 is enlightening. Biden mentioned that not all the hostages taken by Hamas are Israeli citizens; there are also US citizens among them. If we need to rescue the hostages, a temporary ceasefire is necessary. This is not just an issue within the sole jurisdiction of Israel; the US also has the right to be involved, and the Israeli government must consider and respect this.
This also sheds light on the Taiwan issue: there are many foreign citizens .

拜登總統於216日回答記者的問題,是具有啟發性的。拜登提到哈馬斯扣押的人質並非全是以色列公民;其中也有美國公民。如果我們需要解救這些人質,則需要進行臨時停火。這不僅是以色列單方面管轄的問題;美國也有參與的權利,以色列政府必須考慮並尊重此事。
這也為台灣問題提供了一些啟示:這裡有很多外國公民。

拜登總統白宮記者會(以色列暫時停火問題)    The White House 白宮 20240216

Q:  Thank you, Mr. President.  Switching gears for a moment.  Have the Israelis presented a credible evacuation plan for the nearly 1.5 million displaced Palestinians sheltering in Rafah?  And what would the consequences be for Israel if they move ahead with a full-scale ground invasion without clear measures to protect civilians there?  謝謝你,總統先生。暫時切換一下議題。以色列是否為在拉法避難的近150萬流離失所的巴勒斯坦人提出了可靠的疏散計畫?如果以色列在沒有明確措施保護當地平民的情況下進行全面地面入侵,將會產生什麼後果?
THE PRESIDENT:  Well, first of all, I’ve had extensive conversations with the Prime Minister of Israel over the last several days — almost an hour each.  And I’ve made the case — and I feel very strongly about it — that there has to be a — a temporary ceasefire to get the prisoners out, to get the hostages out.  And that is underway.  I’m still hopeful that that can be done.
首先,過去幾天我與以色列總理進行了廣泛的交談——每次交談近一個小時。我已經提出了理由——我對此有非常強烈的感覺——必須暫時停火,以釋放囚犯、釋放人質這一切正在進行中。我仍然希望能夠做到這一點。
And in the meantime, I don’t anticipate — I’m hoping that that you — that the Israelis will not make any massive land invasion in the meantime.  So, it’s my expectation that’s not going to happen. 
同時,我希望你們以色列人不會同時進行任何大規模的土地入侵。所以,我期望不會發生。
There has to be a ceasefire temporarily to get those hostages — and, by the way, there are — we’re in a situation where there are American hostages, American citizens that are being held hostage.  It’s not just — not just Israelis; it’s American hostages as well.  
必須暫時停火才能解救這些人質——順便說一句,我們現在的情況是,有美國人質,有美國公民被扣為人質。這不只是──不只是以色列人;這不只是以色列人。這也是美國人質。
And, you know, my hope and expectation is that we’ll get this hostage deal.  We’ll bring the Americans home.  And the deal is been negotiated now, and we’re going to see where it takes us.  
而且,你知道,我的希望和期望是我們能夠達成這項人質協議。我們會把美國人帶回家。這筆交易現在已經談判完畢,我們將看看它將帶我們走向何方。


2024-02-16

太平洋島國領導人警告美國未能通過資助法案為中國打開大門

太平洋島國領導人警告美國未能通過資助法案為中國打開大門 Pacific Island leaders warn US failure to pass funding bill opens door to China    The Guardian 20240216 / Taimocracy翻譯

The Federated States of Micronesia, the Marshall Islands and Palau say Congress needs to approve fresh support announced by Joe Biden 密克羅尼西亞聯邦、馬紹爾群島和帛琉表示,美國國會要批准拜登宣佈的新支援

Pacific leaders have warned the US government that a delay in approving funding packages for the region threatens to play into the hands of Beijing, which is seeking to shift allegiances in the Pacific and draw away as many of Taiwan’s diplomatic allies as possible. 太平洋地區領導人警告美國政府,延宕批准該地區的一攬子資金計劃可能會落入北京的手中,北京正試圖改變對太平洋地區的效忠,並盡可能多地吸引台灣的外交盟友。

2024-02-13

以侵略者的資產來賠償 Making Aggressors Pay for Their Crimes

Since the outbreak of the War on Ukraine, Western countries have swiftly imposed a series of sanctions on Russia, with financial sanctions being the most severe.
These financial sanctions include freezing the overseas assets of Russian oligarchs and enterprises, and notably disconnecting Russia from the SWIFT system, which effectively downgrades all Russian commercial banks to the level of local credit cooperatives.
The EU has also compiled a list of 1473 individuals and 206 entities whose funds and economic resources (such as real estate) have been frozen. However, there are still challenges in identifying these assets.
EU member states also froze the assets of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (CBR) and prohibited any EU operators from engaging in financial transactions with this entity. Nevertheless, what the long-term impact of these asset freezes?

The key challenge lies in the fact that the CBR’s reserves enjoy the protetion by international customary law, and the confiscation requires the establishment of legal instruments at the international level. In November 2022, motivated by the principle that "Russia must pay for the devastation of Ukraine," the European Commission proposed utilizing Russian assets for reconstruction purposes. The European Commission has recommended designating certain Russian entities as criminal or terrorist organizations in order to seize their assets.
Pertinently, the CBR reserves are intricately linked to the conclusion of a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, as well as the subsequent lifting of sanctions. The aforementioned peace agreement should encompass issues such as war reparations and the transfer of funds to Ukraine. However, in light of Russia's overarching policy objective of complete conquest of Ukraine, coupled with its persistent non-compliance with the Minsk agreements, the EU may be compelled to modify the relevant international norms (without necessarily awaiting the conclusion of a peace agreement) and confiscate CBR reserves through international agreements in order to secure adequate funding for reconstruction efforts.

侵烏戰爭一開始,西方各國立即制裁俄羅斯,最嚴厲的是金融制裁,凍結俄羅斯寡頭與企業海外資產不說,特別是將俄羅斯踢出SWIFT,等於所有俄羅斯商業銀行降級地方信用合作社。歐盟也羅列凍結屬於1473人和206個實體的資金和經濟資源(如房地產)。但在識別這些資產方面也有困難。歐盟成員國也凍結俄羅斯聯邦中央銀行(CBR)資產,並禁止任何歐盟運營商與該實體進行金融交易活動。但凍結資產之後呢?

困難點是中央銀行儲備受到國際習慣法等保護沒收則需要在國際層面建立法源202211月,歐洲聯盟委員會基於「俄羅斯必須為烏克蘭的毀滅付出代價」,提議使用俄羅斯資產來重建。歐盟委員會建議將一些俄羅斯實體認定為犯罪或恐怖組織來沒收。至於CBR儲備與俄烏締結和平協議、解除制裁有關,和平協議要包括戰爭賠款和將資金轉移到烏克蘭等議題。基於俄羅斯的政策目標是完全征服烏克蘭及俄羅斯不遵守〈明斯克協議〉的事實。因此,歐盟(無需等待和平協議)將被迫改變這方面的國際慣例,通過國際協議沒收CBR儲備,以獲得足夠的重建資金。[1]



[1]  王雲程,〈由烏克蘭看台海:從軍事援助到政軍想定〉,許文堂陳俐甫主編《台灣對戰爭的想定》,台灣教授協會(台北:2023),p.171