調整美國對台政策以適應新的戰略現實 Adapting US Taiwan policy for a new strategic reality Ryan Hass / Jude Blanchette 20260320

【雙魚之論】
This joint seminar hosted by the Brookings Institution and the RAND Corporation featured a critical review of diverse perspectives regarding U.S. policy toward China and Taiwan. Among the viewpoints presented, Jennifer Kavanagh’s proposal is the most detached from reality. She suggests that “Washington could use the pullback of its support for Taiwan’s defense to pursue a grand bargain with Beijing, whereby Beijing commits to engage in cross-Strait dialogue and reduce its military pressure against Taiwan.” Her recommendation is essentially a rehash of a failed historical policy—specifically the August 17 Communiqué of 1982—yet it is being repackaged as a fresh initiative to break the current deadlock and influence policy.

Fittingly, Matt Turpin’s article provides a robust rebuttal to this stance. He argues that “America’s declaratory policies on Taiwan were designed for a different era. America’s ‘One China’ policy and its posture of strategic ambiguity were compromises intended in part to secure China’s commitment to peaceful means in pursuit of unification.” He contends that China has effectively invalidated this approach through its massive military buildup and increasingly aggressive actions toward Taiwan.

---

這Brookings Institute與RAND聯合舉辦的研討會，對美國的對中、對台政策有不同觀點的檢討。其中，Jennifer Kavanagh的「華盛頓可以利用減少對台灣國防支援的契機，與北京達成一項「大協議」，促使北京承諾開展兩岸對話並減少對台軍事壓力。」最脫離現實：其建議明明是證實失敗的政策歷史——即1982年的〈八一七公報〉，卻反過來以新姿態要解決僵局、影響政策。果然，Matt Turpin的文章以簡單的「美國對台政策的表態是為不同的時代而設計的。美國的「一個中國」政策及其戰略模糊姿態，部分是為了確保中國承諾以和平方式實現統一而做出的妥協。他認為，中國大規模的軍事擴張和日益咄咄逼人的對台行動，已經使這項策略失效。」做了堅實反駁。

調整美國對台政策以適應新的戰略現實 Adapting US Taiwan policy for a new strategic reality    Ryan Hass / Jude Blanchette 20260320

顏慧欣辭職信與加入CPTPP的被滲透 Yen’s resignation letter and the possible CCP’s infiltration

【雙魚之論】
Ever since President Tsai’s administration, Taiwan has paid lip service to joining the CPTPP, yet it has failed to make any actual progress—a situation that is deeply dubious. The reason for this is Taiwan’s own lethargy. This resignation letter might expose a few things, potentially even pointing toward an 'infiltration' plot by CCP.

台灣從小英總統時期起，表面上一直要加入CPTPP，實際上卻一直無法加入，甚至於也無進度一事，非常啟人疑竇。原因出在台灣方面的怠惰。這辭職封信，或許可以交代一些事情，甚至於「被滲透」的情節。

顏慧欣辭職信    EMMY追劇時間 20260327

「院長 鈞鑒，前年五月上旬，職有幸受邀參與國際經貿談判相關事務，非常期待能夠盡自己所能，為攸關台灣整體競爭力的重要政策貢獻一份心力。因而從長年服務的中華經濟研究院轉任此職，承蒙鈞長賦予重任，感到十分感激與榮幸。

不過，實際參與行政院貿辦（OTN）的工作後，職心中頗感憂慮。例如過去多次由國家領導人層級對外宣示的爭取加入CPTPP一事，實際上在執行層次充滿消極敷衍的態度，無具體計畫與時程；職在過去一年半多次提出建言，不但未獲採納，甚至遭到嚴厲駁斥。

又OTN自2007年設立至今已逾十八年，肩負如此重要的任務，卻仍屬任務編組性質，且完全沒有培養高階談判人才的制度，導致人才出現嚴重斷層；在決策流程與公文查考制度上，也有待強化。職雖一再提出建言，但始終未獲接納。身為副手，職也反覆思考，該如何在不違反行政倫理的前提下，向鈞長報告這些情況。後因台美關稅談判開始，職權衡情勢輕重，暫時擱置了這個念頭。

然而，近日因健康因素，經醫師診斷與綜合評估後，必須自即日起辭去公職，專心調養身體。雖然萬分珍惜您所託付的責任，也深感能夠全力以赴、竭誠奉獻是一種榮幸，但我也必須考量自身狀況，避免影響OTN的運作效能。因此，懇請鈞長准予即日起辭職。未來若身體康復，而台灣仍有需要，我必當竭盡所能，不負所望。

陳永康：武獲流程

星期專論》伊朗與委內瑞拉對台灣的啟示 費學禮＠自由 20260315

【雙魚之論】
Both Richard Fisher’s article and the subsequent article by John Tkacik coincidentally mention the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) aggression and Taiwan’s government continuity plans (also known as a government-in-exile). This involves the “recognition of government” under international law, which in turn leads to an implied “recognition of statehood,” or at least the “recognition of belligerency” under the laws of war. As a result, Taiwan would possess all the qualifications of a quasi-state entity.

TRA下「台灣治理當局」的ROC與任何接替的當局 雲程 Defining the ROC, the governing authorities on Taiwan, and Its Successor Authorities Under the TRA Framework by HoonTing

【雙魚之論】
We can gain profound insights into Taiwan’s international status through the writings of John J. Tkacik Jr., which is precisely why I highly recommend his work.

星期專論》拒止：台海戰爭與台灣獨立 譚慎格＠自由 20260322

【雙魚之論】
This article is of paramount importance. It offers profound insights and eye-opening revelations regarding Taiwan’s status, which is precisely why I highly recommend the work of John J. Tkacik Jr.
這篇文章太重要了，我們可以從中學到與恍然大悟很多有關台灣地位的知識，這是我非常推薦譚慎格文章的原因。
有關格陵蘭　Grok：格陵蘭的自治（特別是二戰期間總督同意美國建立基地）
中立的丹麥被德國佔領時
豈止德國：代替希特勒被處罰的孩子！

星期專論》拒止：台海戰爭與台灣獨立    譚慎格＠自由 20260322

中國在台灣海峽戰爭中的最高目標，是將台灣併吞為中華人民共和國的一省。因此，國際社會承認台灣的法理獨立，正是中國領導階層極力防堵的結局。同理，美國若採取拒止中國達成該目標的戰略，將使北京的算計複雜化，有效嚇阻大規模的敵對行動。數十年來，中國不斷警告「台獨意味著戰爭」。不過，反之亦然：「戰爭也意味著台獨」。一套全面性的拒止戰略（strategy of denial）將可確保，在中國入侵或佔領台灣時，台灣仍可獲得法理獨立的結果，即使僅止於對一個淪陷國家的外交承認。

確保中國入侵 台灣仍可獲法理獨立

Terafab：沒有新典範豈有新工廠 No meaningful factory without a paradigm shift

【雙魚之論】
Elon Musk has announced "Terafab"—an initiative for self-developed and self-manufactured chips for internal use. What remained unclear initially was whether this represented a shift in business model (from pure-play foundry to in-house production), a change in manufacturing structure (from vertical disintegration to vertical integration), or an entirely new technological breakthrough.

中國不停新造人工島 意在封鎖海域 non-stop making islands, Beijing can block sealanes

【雙魚之論】
When facing a rogue opponent, to avoid continuous damage without any means of recourse, one must decide whether to maintain the conduct of a gentleman or at least acquire the capacity for self-defense. This is precisely the situation Vietnam faces regarding China’s persistent island-building in the South China Sea.

美國原油對台日韓國安的重要性 The Strategic Importance of U.S. Crude Oil to the National Security of Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea

【雙魚之論】
“Japan funding investments in Alaska and U.S. shale oil fields” has long been known—and Taiwan is doing the same.

以海盜手法繞過制裁 Bypassing Sanctions with Pirate-Like Tactics

【雙魚之論】
Just like with “blocking,” the key to “sanctions” still lies in their actual effective enforcement—otherwise, they are merely a piece of blank paper.

陸軍幫海軍：伊朗潛艦在家被HIMARS+PrSM擊沈 Land Power Strikes Sea: Iranian Sub Sunk in Port by HIMARS + PrSM

【雙魚之論】
Using HIMARS paired with ATACMS or PrSM the US and Israel forces sunk Iranian naval vessels in the port, including a KILO class submarine. This represents a new application of weapons and tactics. The CCP will surely feel the impact upon seeing this—it is essentially one of Taiwan's naval scenarios of "long-range precision strikes at the source." The other scenario involves striking the rocket forces' radars, launchers, rocket warehouses, and launch positions. This shows that the army can also contributes in naval and air warfare. No wonder the blue-white legislators in Taiwan are so insistent on blocking arms purchases from the U.S.

癱瘓憲法，國民黨立委翁曉鈴忠於誰？ Paralyzing the Constitution: To Whom Is KMT Legislator Weng Hsiao-ling Loyal?

癱瘓憲法，國民黨立委翁曉鈴忠於誰？Paralyzing the Constitution: To Whom Is KMT Legislator Weng Hsiao-ling Loyal?

【雙魚之論】
This article is heartbreaking to read. Because paralyzing another constitutional organ through legislation, yet providing no remedial measures, this matter turns the proposer Weng Hsiao-ling into a “motiveless destroyer of the constitution”—she is already disloyal to the ROC Constitution. The question is: to whom are she and her colleagues truly loyal?

本文讀起來痛心。因為以法律癱瘓他部門憲政機關卻無補救措施，這件事情使得提案人翁曉鈴成為「缺乏動機的憲政破壞者」——已經不忠誠於憲法。問題是，她與其同僚忠誠於誰？

憲法法庭不能停：總統直選三十年，從法律角度談民主韌性     楊貴智＠思想坦克 20260313

2024年12月20日，立法院三讀通過《憲法訴訟法》修正案，規定憲法法庭必須至少10名大法官參與評議，且作成違憲宣告時，同意人數不得低於9人。當時大法官大量出缺，這個門檻顯然無法達到。法案的設計者很清楚自己在做什麼：不用廢掉憲法法庭，讓它不出判決就夠了。一座無法裁判的法院，跟不存在沒有差別。

封鎖海峽以癱瘓美軍 Blocking the Strait of Hormuz: Paralyzing U.S. Military Operations in the Persian Gulf

封鎖海峽以癱瘓美軍　Blocking the Strait of Hormuz: Paralyzing U.S. Military Operations in the Persian Gulf
【雙魚之論】
As I mentioned earlier, Iran launched unprovoked attacks on neutral neighboring countries as a prelude to blocking the Strait of Hormuz. However, it now appears that Iran's ambitions go far beyond that: it seeks to completely seal off the strait through mine-laying and suicide drone boats, thereby fully isolating key U.S. military facilities in the Persian Gulf. These include Qatar's Al Udeid Air Base, Bahrain's Naval Support Activity Bahrain (headquarters of the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet), and Kuwait's Camp Arifjan (forward headquarters of U.S. Army Central, serving as the primary logistics, supply, and army command center). In other words, Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is aimed at completely paralyzing U.S. naval and land operations in the Persian Gulf.

為了封鎖海峽先攻擊鄰國---應懲罰伊朗的如意算 Punishing Iran’s Scheme: The Use of Aggression as a Pretext for Blockade

為了封鎖海峽先攻擊鄰國---應懲罰伊朗的如意算　Punishing Iran’s Scheme: The Use of Aggression as a Pretext for Blockade

【雙魚之論】
The strategic intent behind Iran's actions has come to light. The extensive mining of the Strait of Hormuz exposes why Iran initiated attacks against Gulf states regardless of their neutrality.
By manufacturing a state of war, Iran aims to establish a legal basis for blockading the strait. Victim nations across Europe and Asia must demand punitive damages for the economic harm incurred. This situation also provides the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force a pivotal role in clearing Iran’s mines.
原來如此，直到伊朗在荷姆茲海峽全面佈雷，我們才突然理解：為何伊朗要主動攻擊所有海灣國家——目的在造成武裝衝突，甚至戰爭的既存事實，以便為封鎖海峽建立法律藉口。
這樣的心思，受害國家（包括歐洲與亞洲國家）應該可以對其造成的經濟損害進行懲罰性求償。因為伊朗佈雷，日本海上自衛隊又有貢獻國際社會的機會了。

CNN：伊朗開始在荷姆茲海峽布雷 川普警告不清除將面臨軍事後果    自由 20260311

國民黨阻擋軍購 作者書生之見忽略了中共巨大的滲透力量 KMT Halts U.S. Arms Deals: The Author's Ivory-Tower Analysis Fails to See the CCP's Huge Infiltrating Influence

【雙魚之論】
The author discusses in theory the reasons why the Kuomintang opposes arms purchases. It's well organized, particularly in emphasizing that for small countries, armaments are meaningful in increasing the cost of aggression to deter invasion rather than seeking victory, thus making it still significant for small countries to strengthen their armaments.

美國戰爭部長皮特·赫格塞斯在美洲反卡特爾會議上的演講 戰爭部 20260305 Taimocracy翻譯

【雙魚之論】
In his speech at the Americas Counter Cartel Conference (held in conjunction with the Shield of the Americas initiative) on March 5, 2026, U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth highlighted a shift from defense to offense, the necessary use of military force in law enforcement contexts when required, the defense of geographic borders, a minilateral (small-circle) alliance combined with a unilateral fallback option, and the readiness to launch unilateral strikes when necessary. These points collectively illustrate America's new determination and the current phase of its policy.

「溫伯格主義」（Weinberger Doctrine）

【雙魚之論】
美國戰爭部長在雷根論壇提及「溫伯格主義」（Weinberger Doctrine）

美國戰爭部長皮特·赫格塞斯演講 Pete Hegseth＠雷根國防論壇 20251206 Taimocracy 翻譯
美國戰爭部長皮特·赫格塞斯演講 Pete Hegseth＠雷根國防論壇 20251206 Taimocracy 翻譯
20251215　余茂春受邀TAUP演講

20260307「美洲之盾」　Joint Security Declaration
20260307「美洲之盾」與美洲國家組織、門羅主義之關係　The Shield of the Americas vs. OAS and Donroe Doctrine
20260307「美洲之盾」啟動　Start of the Shield of the Americas

 

「溫伯格主義」（Weinberger Doctrine） 是美國軍事政策史上一個極具影響力的原則框架，由雷根政府時期（1981–1989）的國防部長卡斯帕·溫伯格（Caspar Weinberger）於1984年11月28日在華盛頓國家新聞俱樂部發表的演說《The Uses of Military Power》中正式提出。

PrSM的成功，國民黨必定拼死擋軍購 PrSM Success: KMT will Block Arms Purchases at all costs

【雙魚之論】
The PrSMs have done significant contribution in the attack on Iran 2-3 years before its scheduled deployment in 2027-2028. That is the commitment of Pete Hegseth’s famous remark, “the Arsenal of Freedom,” on December 19, 2025.“We mean to increase acquisition risk in order to decrease operational risk. Let me say that again — we mean to increase acquisition risk in order to decrease operational risk. By taking greater calculated risk in how we build, buy and maintain our systems, we will gain speed to more quickly provide capabilities to the battlefield.

20260307「美洲之盾」 Joint Security Declaration

【雙魚之論】
很有趣，看起來像是「行政協定」而非條約。優點是無須國會審核、反應較快速，甚至使用軍事武力對付以民為偽裝的毒品恐怖主義，缺點是其合法性基於行政部門的意願。
The signed Joint Security Declaration is available here.
Secretary Hegseth's remarks are available here.

The Shield of the Americas 的核心文件主要是 Doral Charter（多拉爾憲章），這是2026年3月7日在佛羅里達州Doral（Trump National Doral度假村）峰會結束時，由美國總統川普與參與國領導人共同簽署的宣言性文件。它也被稱為 Joint Security Declaration 或 Commitment to Countering Cartel Criminal Activity 的延伸形式。

20260307「美洲之盾」與美洲國家組織、門羅主義之關係 The Shield of the Americas vs. OAS and Donroe Doctrine

與美洲國家組織（OAS）的功能是否重複？
是的，有部分重疊但本質上不同，而且Trump政府刻意避開OAS的全面多邊框架。

• OAS（Organization of American States，美洲國家組織） 是1948年成立的正式多邊機構，涵蓋美洲35個國家（包括美國、加拿大、幾乎所有拉美與加勒比國家），功能廣泛：
• 促進民主、人權、選舉監督
• 區域安全、衝突調解
• 經濟合作、發展援助
• 集體安全條約（里約條約）
• 決策通常需共識或多數，包含左翼、中間、右翼政府