陸軍幫海軍：伊朗潛艦在家被HIMARS+PrSM擊沈 Land Power Strikes Sea: Iranian Sub Sunk in Port by HIMARS + PrSM

【雙魚之論】
Using HIMARS paired with ATACMS or PrSM the US and Israel forces sunk Iranian naval vessels in the port, including a KILO class submarine. This represents a new application of weapons and tactics. The CCP will surely feel the impact upon seeing this—it is essentially one of Taiwan's naval scenarios of "long-range precision strikes at the source." The other scenario involves striking the rocket forces' radars, launchers, rocket warehouses, and launch positions. This shows that the army can also contributes in naval and air warfare. No wonder the blue-white legislators in Taiwan are so insistent on blocking arms purchases from the U.S.

癱瘓憲法，國民黨立委翁曉鈴忠於誰？ Paralyzing the Constitution: To Whom Is KMT Legislator Weng Hsiao-ling Loyal?

癱瘓憲法，國民黨立委翁曉鈴忠於誰？Paralyzing the Constitution: To Whom Is KMT Legislator Weng Hsiao-ling Loyal?

【雙魚之論】
This article is heartbreaking to read. Because paralyzing another constitutional organ through legislation, yet providing no remedial measures, this matter turns the proposer Weng Hsiao-ling into a “motiveless destroyer of the constitution”—she is already disloyal to the ROC Constitution. The question is: to whom are she and her colleagues truly loyal?

本文讀起來痛心。因為以法律癱瘓他部門憲政機關卻無補救措施，這件事情使得提案人翁曉鈴成為「缺乏動機的憲政破壞者」——已經不忠誠於憲法。問題是，她與其同僚忠誠於誰？

憲法法庭不能停：總統直選三十年，從法律角度談民主韌性     楊貴智＠思想坦克 20260313

2024年12月20日，立法院三讀通過《憲法訴訟法》修正案，規定憲法法庭必須至少10名大法官參與評議，且作成違憲宣告時，同意人數不得低於9人。當時大法官大量出缺，這個門檻顯然無法達到。法案的設計者很清楚自己在做什麼：不用廢掉憲法法庭，讓它不出判決就夠了。一座無法裁判的法院，跟不存在沒有差別。

封鎖海峽以癱瘓美軍 Blocking the Strait of Hormuz: Paralyzing U.S. Military Operations in the Persian Gulf

封鎖海峽以癱瘓美軍　Blocking the Strait of Hormuz: Paralyzing U.S. Military Operations in the Persian Gulf
【雙魚之論】
As I mentioned earlier, Iran launched unprovoked attacks on neutral neighboring countries as a prelude to blocking the Strait of Hormuz. However, it now appears that Iran's ambitions go far beyond that: it seeks to completely seal off the strait through mine-laying and suicide drone boats, thereby fully isolating key U.S. military facilities in the Persian Gulf. These include Qatar's Al Udeid Air Base, Bahrain's Naval Support Activity Bahrain (headquarters of the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet), and Kuwait's Camp Arifjan (forward headquarters of U.S. Army Central, serving as the primary logistics, supply, and army command center). In other words, Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is aimed at completely paralyzing U.S. naval and land operations in the Persian Gulf.

為了封鎖海峽先攻擊鄰國---應懲罰伊朗的如意算 Punishing Iran’s Scheme: The Use of Aggression as a Pretext for Blockade

為了封鎖海峽先攻擊鄰國---應懲罰伊朗的如意算　Punishing Iran’s Scheme: The Use of Aggression as a Pretext for Blockade

【雙魚之論】
The strategic intent behind Iran's actions has come to light. The extensive mining of the Strait of Hormuz exposes why Iran initiated attacks against Gulf states regardless of their neutrality.
By manufacturing a state of war, Iran aims to establish a legal basis for blockading the strait. Victim nations across Europe and Asia must demand punitive damages for the economic harm incurred. This situation also provides the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force a pivotal role in clearing Iran’s mines.
原來如此，直到伊朗在荷姆茲海峽全面佈雷，我們才突然理解：為何伊朗要主動攻擊所有海灣國家——目的在造成武裝衝突，甚至戰爭的既存事實，以便為封鎖海峽建立法律藉口。
這樣的心思，受害國家（包括歐洲與亞洲國家）應該可以對其造成的經濟損害進行懲罰性求償。因為伊朗佈雷，日本海上自衛隊又有貢獻國際社會的機會了。

CNN：伊朗開始在荷姆茲海峽布雷 川普警告不清除將面臨軍事後果    自由 20260311

國民黨阻擋軍購 作者書生之見忽略了中共巨大的滲透力量 KMT Halts U.S. Arms Deals: The Author's Ivory-Tower Analysis Fails to See the CCP's Huge Infiltrating Influence

【雙魚之論】
The author discusses in theory the reasons why the Kuomintang opposes arms purchases. It's well organized, particularly in emphasizing that for small countries, armaments are meaningful in increasing the cost of aggression to deter invasion rather than seeking victory, thus making it still significant for small countries to strengthen their armaments.

美國戰爭部長皮特·赫格塞斯在美洲反卡特爾會議上的演講 戰爭部 20260305 Taimocracy翻譯

【雙魚之論】
In his speech at the Americas Counter Cartel Conference (held in conjunction with the Shield of the Americas initiative) on March 5, 2026, U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth highlighted a shift from defense to offense, the necessary use of military force in law enforcement contexts when required, the defense of geographic borders, a minilateral (small-circle) alliance combined with a unilateral fallback option, and the readiness to launch unilateral strikes when necessary. These points collectively illustrate America's new determination and the current phase of its policy.

「溫伯格主義」（Weinberger Doctrine）

【雙魚之論】
美國戰爭部長在雷根論壇提及「溫伯格主義」（Weinberger Doctrine）

美國戰爭部長皮特·赫格塞斯演講 Pete Hegseth＠雷根國防論壇 20251206 Taimocracy 翻譯
美國戰爭部長皮特·赫格塞斯演講 Pete Hegseth＠雷根國防論壇 20251206 Taimocracy 翻譯
20251215　余茂春受邀TAUP演講

20260307「美洲之盾」　Joint Security Declaration
20260307「美洲之盾」與美洲國家組織、門羅主義之關係　The Shield of the Americas vs. OAS and Donroe Doctrine
20260307「美洲之盾」啟動　Start of the Shield of the Americas

 

「溫伯格主義」（Weinberger Doctrine） 是美國軍事政策史上一個極具影響力的原則框架，由雷根政府時期（1981–1989）的國防部長卡斯帕·溫伯格（Caspar Weinberger）於1984年11月28日在華盛頓國家新聞俱樂部發表的演說《The Uses of Military Power》中正式提出。

PrSM的成功，國民黨必定拼死擋軍購 PrSM Success: KMT will Block Arms Purchases at all costs

【雙魚之論】
The PrSMs have done significant contribution in the attack on Iran 2-3 years before its scheduled deployment in 2027-2028. That is the commitment of Pete Hegseth’s famous remark, “the Arsenal of Freedom,” on December 19, 2025.“We mean to increase acquisition risk in order to decrease operational risk. Let me say that again — we mean to increase acquisition risk in order to decrease operational risk. By taking greater calculated risk in how we build, buy and maintain our systems, we will gain speed to more quickly provide capabilities to the battlefield.

20260307「美洲之盾」 Joint Security Declaration

【雙魚之論】
很有趣，看起來像是「行政協定」而非條約。優點是無須國會審核、反應較快速，甚至使用軍事武力對付以民為偽裝的毒品恐怖主義，缺點是其合法性基於行政部門的意願。
The signed Joint Security Declaration is available here.
Secretary Hegseth's remarks are available here.

The Shield of the Americas 的核心文件主要是 Doral Charter（多拉爾憲章），這是2026年3月7日在佛羅里達州Doral（Trump National Doral度假村）峰會結束時，由美國總統川普與參與國領導人共同簽署的宣言性文件。它也被稱為 Joint Security Declaration 或 Commitment to Countering Cartel Criminal Activity 的延伸形式。

20260307「美洲之盾」與美洲國家組織、門羅主義之關係 The Shield of the Americas vs. OAS and Donroe Doctrine

與美洲國家組織（OAS）的功能是否重複？
是的，有部分重疊但本質上不同，而且Trump政府刻意避開OAS的全面多邊框架。

• OAS（Organization of American States，美洲國家組織） 是1948年成立的正式多邊機構，涵蓋美洲35個國家（包括美國、加拿大、幾乎所有拉美與加勒比國家），功能廣泛：
• 促進民主、人權、選舉監督
• 區域安全、衝突調解
• 經濟合作、發展援助
• 集體安全條約（里約條約）
• 決策通常需共識或多數，包含左翼、中間、右翼政府

20260307「美洲之盾」啟動 Start of the Shield of the Americas

The Shield of the Americas（美洲之盾）是美國總統川普在2026年3月於佛羅里達州Doral（他的高爾夫球場）舉辦的一場峰會中正式宣布的一項多國安全與軍事合作倡議。

主要內容與目的

這項計畫的核心是建立一個區域性聯盟（有時被稱為「美洲反毒梟聯盟」或Americas Counter-Cartel Coalition），重點針對以下幾個議題：

國民黨積極反對台菲在印太軍事合作 KMT legislators refute Taiwan-Philippines Military Collaboration in the Indo-Pacific

國民黨積極反對台菲在印太軍事合作　KMT legislators refute Taiwan-Philippines Military Collaboration in the Indo-Pacific

【雙魚之論】
KMT Legislator Lai Shyh-bao, Jonathan Lin （賴士葆、林沛祥） have publicly opposed to Taiwan’s financing base renovations in the Philippines aimed at countering the PLA. Are they unaware that the Indo-Pacific strategy is an integrated whole, or have they become mouthpieces for Red China?

海戰與戰時國際法的生動教材 Naval Warfare and the Law of Armed Conflict: A Vivid Case Study

【雙魚之論】
The case of the sunken Iranian warship and the seeking refuge in neutral ports (India/Sri Lanka) is a practical lesson in international maritime law during wartime.

1. Duty to Rescue: Protecting survivors is a non-negotiable duty. They cannot be refused help or targeted for military reasons, regardless of their combatant status.
2. Neutral Port Limits: Refuge in neutral ports is restricted (usually 24 hours). Neutral nations must ensure their waters aren't used for military advantage. Rescued troops are typically interned to preserve the host's neutral status.
3. Rules of Capture: Capturing enemy ships on the high seas is allowed but requires humane treatment of survivors; capture of neutral vessels is strictly regulated.

伊朗軍艦被擊沈、進入中立第三國（印度、斯里蘭卡）港口尋求庇護等，是個戰時國際法的生動教材。
1.  救助優先：遇難者保護是絕對義務，不得因軍事考量拒絕或攻擊（即使敵方）。

2.  中立庇護有限：中立港口提供24小時臨時避難，但交戰方軍艦可同時停留中立港口，中立國須防止濫用；獲救戰鬥人員常被拘留以維持中立。

3.  拿捕有條件：公海拿捕敵方較自由，但須尊重遇難者；對中立方嚴格限制。

 

伊朗軍艦無處可去 由印度收留並安置183名船員    自由 20260307

洗錢天堂UAE要開始制裁伊朗 UAE, the money laundring heaven, is going to sanction Iran

【雙魚之論】
In the previous article titled 〈獨裁者必耗盡國家財富〉　Dictators Inevitably Deplete a Nation's Wealth, it is mentioned that the so-called sacred mission for long-term rule claimed by dictators is, in reality, merely an excuse to plunder national wealth.

獨裁者必耗盡國家財富 Dictators Inevitably Deplete a Nation's Wealth

【雙魚之論】
Financial and trade sanctions are highly effective tools, but the majority of countries must unite for them to work properly. In other words, the sanctioned country must have harmed the interests of most nations—including the interests of the existing order and system—and this naturally takes time to materialize.

美以源頭打擊，伊朗開火即死 US/Israel Source Strikes: Iran Fires, It Dies

【雙魚之論】
Countries with actual war experience or those preparing to invade others will naturally stockpile ammunition in large quantities. Their military-industrial systems can rapidly ramp up production capacity, and during wartime, they often employ secrecy, disinformation, or deliberate mix of truth and falsehood in propaganda. As a result, no one truly knows the exact size of their ammunition reserves.

戰火一開，軍火孔急 War breaks out, ammo runs short fast.

【雙魚之論】
The Iranian regime's current retaliatory policy is almost equivalent to Germany's "unrestricted submarine warfare" during the two world wars, where even civilian lives and assets are not spared. The consequences of this policy are clear: any third-party country whose civilian assets are attacked will have to wage war—otherwise, its fundamental function as a state—protecting the nation and its people—will be completely eroded. For a republic, this could lead to regime change; for a monarchy, it could spark revolution, or, as in the cases of UAE and Qatar, massive capital flight by foreign investors.

「脫北朝鮮人」是韓國的公民？

【雙魚之論】
This is an interesting piece of news. Taiwan uses the concepts of "household registration" and "jurisdiction" to sidestep the contradiction of whether it and the People’s Republic of China constitute "one country." Similarly, South Korea previously used the term "departure" (defection) as a definition to avoid the same "one country" dilemma.

Now, South Korea is changing the terminology for "North Korean defectors" to "Buk-hyang-min" (literally, "people whose hometown is in the North") and has officially set the English translation as "North Korean-born citizens." This reclassification emphasizes that they are equal citizens protected under the South Korean Constitution and law, and underscores that their citizenship remains intact even if they reside in a third country outside of South Korea.

The crux lies in the word "citizens"—is this a concept tied to a "State" or a "Constitution" (jurisdiction)? If it is a single state, then (at least according to the South Korean Constitution) North Korean citizens equal South Korean citizens. If they are two separate states, then North Korean citizens do not equal South Korean citizens. Currently, the two sides of the Korean Peninsula hold diverging concepts of themselves and each other: South Korea views it as "one state, two governments," while North Korea has shifted to the doctrine of "two hostile states."[1]

---

這條消息，有趣。台灣是以「戶籍」與「法域」來迴避與中華人民共和國是否為「一國」的矛盾。韓國過去是以「脫離」來定義，也是迴避「一國」的矛盾。現在，韓國要將「脫北者」用語改為「北鄉民」，並正式將英文翻譯定為North Korean-born citizens（北韓出生公民），並依據南韓憲法與法律受到保護的平等公民，並凸顯即使居住在南韓以外的第三國，其公民身分仍然維持。
關鍵是citizens，是國家或憲法（法域）下的概念？若是一國家，則（至少依據韓國憲法）朝鮮公民＝韓國公民。若是兩國家，則朝鮮公民≠韓國公民。而朝鮮半島上韓朝對於自己和對方抱持不同概念——韓國：一國兩府；朝鮮：兩敵對國。

南韓擬將脫北者改稱「北鄉民」　英文官方翻譯出爐    中央社 20260305

《伊朗問題其實就是中共的大問題》 蔡漢勳 20260302

【雙魚之論】
Senior journalist Tsai Han-hsun （蔡漢勳） likely adapted and expanded this text from Zineb Riboua's article, 'The Real Purpose of Iran’s Airstrikes is China.' Compared to Riboua’s original piece, Tsai’s version is more accessible and benefits from a superior structural layout, making the two well worth a side-by-side comparison.
Ultimately, from this perspective, an 'atypical' U.S.-China war has already begun."

蔡漢勳大概依據Zineb Riboua的〈伊朗空襲的真正目的在於中國〉一文擴充內容改寫而成為FB上的本文。本文比Riboua原文容易閱讀，本文也有段落編排上的優勢，兩文可以做比對。
總之，從這角度看，一種非典型的美中戰爭已經開打了。
伊朗空襲的真正目的在於中國　The Iran Strike Is All About China Zineb Riboua@Hudson Institute 20260301 Taimocracy翻譯

《伊朗問題其實就是中共的大問題》    蔡漢勳 20260302

Zineb Riboua@Hudson Institute 20260301

The Iran Strike Is All About China

中共衛星向德黑蘭提供美軍兵力部署的即時情報，包括：偵測F-35A、F-15E、A-10C戰機及薩德（THAAD）系統抵達約旦空軍基地的動態。伊朗總統懇求習近平將伊朗視為「友好且堅定的盟友」！北京之所以回應，是因為伊朗在美國壓力下崩潰，中共戰略走廊將被切斷。自冷戰結束以來，從未出現過如此機會，可對中共戰略佈局施加這種「毀滅程度的打擊」！

《伊朗問題其實就是中共的大問題》

伊朗空襲的真正目的在於中國 The Iran Strike Is All About China Zineb Riboua@Hudson Institute 20260301 Taimocracy翻譯

【雙魚之論】
Since the onset of "Trump 1.0" in 2017, his national security strategy has consistently focused on addressing the global threat posed by China, spanning issues from immigration to technology theft. In the context of this article, Iran is viewed through a geopolitical lens. China’s strategic objective is to subvert the "American Century," and to achieve this, Beijing must drain and disperse American resources. While Iran and Venezuela have become dependencies of the CCP, Russia remains a more equal ally—all of which Trump is addressing systematically.