如雲朵的手，「扛200斤麥子，十里山路不換肩」

朝鮮修憲：從「半國」地位邁向「一國」 DRPK's new constitution: from "half-State" to "State"

【雙魚之論】
Since the end of 2024, North Korea has been politically asserting that the Korean Peninsula should move toward becoming “two States” (rather than the post-war concept of two “half-States”). Now, it is implementing this position through constitutional amendments. In the new constitutional revisions, North Korea has deleted references to “unification” and defined the Republic of Korea as its “primary enemy and unchanging main enemy.” This move has effectively stripped the political foundation of South Korea’s unification-oriented President Lee Jae-myung of any legitimacy.

Taiwan is Taiwan 中國對民航安全宣戰 馬明漢 Michael Mazza＠自由 20260503

【雙魚之論】
中國施壓馬達加斯加、模里西斯和塞席爾，關閉對台灣總統訪問友邦航班必經的「飛航情報區」（FIR）服務，這是史無前例的大事——將公共事物化為私人資產。

TWO KINGS

20260501 UAE要退出OPEC與OPEC+ Tai Yu＠FB 20260428

【雙魚之論】
伊朗戰爭會觸發的必然，比想像的更大，不只針對伊朗、中東權力局勢，更牽涉處理中國挑釁與石油世紀的權力比重。如果油價與供應無虞，制裁就會失去著力點，而核能也會暫時卡住。

20260501 UAE要退出OPEC與OPEC+    Tai Yu＠FB 20260428

震撼消息：當全球目光都集中在荷姆茲海峽（StraitofHormuz）的頭條新聞時，幕後正在發生自1973年石油危機以來從未見過的大事。

日本自衛隊軍階改稱，更接近一般軍隊了

孤狼之後，查爾斯三世對美國進行國事訪問

【雙魚之論】
就在美國東時間4/27，川普將接待查爾斯國王進行的國事訪問，結果在訪問前兩天4/25川普再度遭受槍手企圖刺殺。幾此都是「孤狼犯案」？此次若被得逞，查爾斯國王能來美國還是不能？我對孤狼一說，很不以為然。特別是4月28日星期二上午的活動冠蓋雲集，維安可能要升級到NORAD層級。

美國總統唐納德·J·川普和第一夫人梅拉尼婭·川普將歡迎大不列顛及北愛爾蘭聯合王國國王查理三世陛下和王后卡米拉陛下進行國事訪問    白宮 20260425

美國總統唐納德·J·川普和第一夫人梅拉尼婭·川普將於2026年4月27日星期一至4月30日星期四在華盛頓特區迎接大不列顛及北愛爾蘭聯合王國國王查理三世陛下和王后卡米拉陛下進行國事訪問。這次訪問是川普政府第二任期內的首次正式國事訪問。

美國支持摩洛哥對於西撒哈拉的完全主權 The US supports Morocco’s full sovereignty over its southern provinces in Western Sahara.

【雙魚之論】
The US supports Morocco’s full sovereignty over its southern provinces in Western Sahara.
美國支持摩洛哥對於西撒哈拉的完全主權，有意思～

美國和摩洛哥簽署新的國防合作路線圖    MWN 20260416

拉巴特—美國和摩洛哥簽署了一項新的國防合作路線圖，塑造了兩國在關鍵領域之一的夥伴關係。

失蹤的過路費：國家失敗的徵兆 Missing Fees: A Sign of a Failing State

【雙魚之論】
Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz to collect transit fees. Records show that 80 ships were released at a fee of $2 million each, which should have generated $160 million in revenue. However, not a single dollar was actually received. Could this be intentional? Reports suggest it was due to flawed process design.

當世界受苦時，中國忙著囤積 While the World Suffers, China Hoards

【雙魚之論】
The IEA’s March Oil Market Report noted that against the backdrop of rapidly declining domestic oil and gas inventories worldwide—following Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz—China’s inventories surged. In terms of growth rates: with the exception of Middle Eastern countries, whose stocks rose only because they were unable to export, global inventories fell by 85 million barrels, and Asian inventories overall dropped by 31 million barrels. China, however, saw a substantial increase of 40 million barrels—30% more than the total decline across the rest of Asia, and nearly half the magnitude of the global decrease. It is clear that as China becomes a rising power, it looks out only for its own interests.

貝森特：中國「一直是不可靠夥伴」 Bessent: China has been an unreliable partner

【雙魚之論】
"U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, regarded as the most authoritative interpreter of Donald Trump’s policies, stated in an interview that the message conveyed by Trump’s visit to China in May is one of 'stability.' This is a veiled phrasing; 'stability' implies that no definitive conclusions are expected to emerge from the summit.

以毒攻毒：美國的反封鎖 vs. 英法的虛張聲勢 Tit for Tat: Dealing with Rogues the U.S. Way vs. the Anglo-French Facade

【雙魚之論】
Traditionally, the standard response to a blockade was a counter-blockade. However, the United States has gone a step further; for the first time in history, it is imposing blockade measures on those whom the blockading nation has selectively spared as part of its extortionary tactics. Since rogues only understand the language of force, the only way to deal with them is to "fight fire with fire."

反美者家屬的永久居留權與財富岌岌可危 Green Cards and Assets of Anti-American Relatives in Jeopardy

【雙魚之論】
In his book Smart Power, Joseph Nye argues that America’s greatest strength lies in the global appeal of its democratic lifestyle, followed by its network of allies. However, opportunists have exploited this, leading to the phenomenon where "living in the U.S. is the lifestyle, while opposing the U.S. is the career."

現代「天方夜譚」——評伊朗〈10點和平計畫〉 Modern The Arabian Nights: on Iran’s Peace draft

【雙魚之論】
On April 8, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council unveiled a so-called “Ten-Point Peace Plan.” Yet rather than serving as a genuine basis for negotiation, the proposal reads more like a politically driven declaration detached from reality—either formulated without prior working-level consultations or never intended for meaningful engagement, but instead aimed at consolidating domestic political interests.

懦弱的丹麥 Denmark’s "Weak-Knee" Syndrome: A Lesson from History HoonTing

Denmark’s "Weak-Knee" Syndrome: A Lesson from History by HoonTing

At a time when the United States, Japan, and the European Union have reaffirmed that UN General Assembly Resolution 2758 does not determine Taiwan's status—emphasizing that Taiwan is not a province of China—Denmark, an EU member state, has inexplicably buckled. Following the lead of the South Korean government in February, Denmark has begun labeling Taiwan as "CHINA (TAIWAN)." There is little doubt that these changes are the result of relentless pressure from Beijing.

牽制美國，中國供給伊朗固態燃料 The Pinning Attack: China Supplies Iran with Solid Fuel to Restrain the US

【雙魚之論】
The Telegraph reports that four or five Chinese cargo ships have docked at Iranian ports since the start of the conflict, carrying sodium perchlorate, a critical precursor for up to 785 solid-fuel missile boosters. Of particular concern is the lack of any viable mechanism to intercept or halt these shipments.

失去理智轟鄰國，制裁伊朗恰得其所 Losing the Plot: Bombing Neighbors Makes Sanctions Against Iran Fully Justified

【雙魚之論】
Despite their gradual nature, economic sanctions against violators of international law and the rules-based order can prove more crippling than physical military strikes. The case of the UAE and Iran stands alongside the 2022 sanctions against Russia as a primary example. In light of the UAE’s status as Iran’s second-largest trading partner—accounting for 22.6% of its foreign trade ($28.2 billion) in 2024—strikes against Emirati as well as other countries’ civilian targets, including hotels and oil refineries, signal a breakdown in the Iranian regime’s governance. More accurately, it portrays the IRGC as a 'state within a state,' a rogue entity colonizing Iran from within.

革命衛隊：內部殖民與恐怖統治　Internal Colonization of the IRGC’s Terror

 

阿聯不忍了！港媒爆伊朗經濟命脈被砍斷「北京中鏢」全面封殺千億油資    三立 20260405

為報復工業設施屢遭攻擊，阿拉伯聯合大公國近期針對境內由伊朗操控的空殼公司展開強力掃蕩。此舉旨在切斷伊朗伊斯蘭革命衛隊的經濟命脈，並連帶阻斷透過香港、新加坡轉售石油的中國買家，藉此對德黑蘭施加致命打擊。

革命衛隊：內部殖民與恐怖統治 Internal Colonization of the IRGC’s Terror

革命衛隊：內部殖民與恐怖統治　Internal Colonization of the IRGC’s Terror

Just as the CCP colonizes China and the Workers' Party colonizes North Korea, Iran is a nation internally colonized by the Revolutionary Guard (IRGC). These entities position themselves above the state, parasitizing national resources and the people’s interests while remaining exempt from national laws; they are essentially "states within a state" or terrorist organizations.
Otherwise, it would be inconceivable that, under such circumstances, the Revolutionary Guard would choose to attack neighboring countries in an attempt to retaliate against the world by escalating the conflict.
This is sheer vengeance, not a rational calculation. Therefore, the free world must track the names and movements of IRGC cadres at all levels, freezing their assets and pursuing them for trial on behalf of the Iranian people, no matter where they may hide.

一如「中共」殖民中國、「朝共」殖民朝鮮一樣，伊朗是被「革命衛隊」內部殖民的國家。他們都是在國家之上，寄生國家資源與人民利益而不受國法管制的「國中之國」或恐怖主義團體。
否則，根本無法想像在這情形下，革命衛隊會選擇攻擊周邊國家，企圖藉由擴大戰事來報復世界。
這是赤裸裸的復仇，並非理性計算。所以自由世界要標記各級幹部的名字與行蹤，替伊朗人民天涯海角凍結資產與逮捕受審。

思考美國對台灣的基本優先事項 Thinking through America’s baseline priorities on Taiwan Kharis Templeman＠Brookings Insitute 20260320

思考美國對台灣的基本優先事項    Kharis Templeman＠Brookings Insitute 20260320

【雙魚之論】
The author Kharis Templeman presents an intriguing observation: neither the United States nor China wishes to go to war over Taiwan. However, the U.S. interest lies in preserving Taiwan’s autonomy, while China’s interest lies in restricting it. This creates a state of coercive bargaining, where each side attempts to shift the other's position while being unable to yield their own. Specifically, for the U.S., explicitly committing to protect Taiwan or abandoning military support would represent a fundamental change in stance that weakens its bargaining power. Similarly, if China were to renounce the use of force, it would be seen as accepting Taiwanese independence, thereby undermining its own position.

只剩下洩憤？「中國遊客」在美國中央司令部放置炸彈 Nothing Left but Spite? "Chinese Tourists" Plant Bomb at U.S. Central Command

【雙魚之論】
An ordinary tourist can't identify, infiltrate, and sabotage—or more accurately, harass—MacDill Air Force Base, which serves as a critical command center for the U.S. military. The actions of these tourists were inevitably carried out under instructions from Beijing.