政治重建下的〈台灣保證法〉
戰後台灣政治重建路途即將結束 答案絕非一國兩制
美國眾議院以414對0，無異議通過〈台灣保證法〉，預料參議院也將通過。在中國瘋狂打壓台灣國際參與空間下，此舉意義重大。
With 414 votes in favor, zero against, the U.S. House of Representative
passed the Taiwan Assurance Act (TAA).
The Senate is expected to pass in a short time. This move has a significant point while China
is squeezing the international participation space.
台美關係從1979年後沉寂很長時間。1994年才有〈台灣政策檢討〉，讓翌年李登輝得以訪美。遺憾的是，之後又繼續不動。
The Taiwan-U.S. relation has staged for decades since 1979, until 1994,
the U.S. Congress passed “Taiwan Policy Review,” allowing President Lee
Teng-hui visited the U.S. next year.
台美關係在2002年出現轉折。透過〈外交授權法〉，允許現任官員任職AIT、台北正副處長可進入外交部與總統府等八項政策。不久，美國派駐現役軍人到AIT安全合作組、聯絡事務組工作。而2005年，AIT公布新館計劃。
The Taiwan-U.S. relation reached a turning point in 2002, the Congress
passed the Foreign Authorization Act and allowing incumbent service personnel
to work in AIT, AIT Director and deputy of Taipei Office could enter Taiwan’s
governmental offices, including the Presidential Hall and the Ministry of
Foreign Affairs etc. Soon, the U.S. sent
the service personnel to AIT’s Security Cooperation Office, Liaison
Office. AIT announced its new compound
project in Nei-hu in 2005.
2018年起台美關係飛快進展：在〈台灣旅行法〉、〈亞洲再保證倡議法〉外，更有大量提案在國會審議中，不僅具體補充〈台灣關係法〉，時機上更配合了AIT新館落成啟用。
The Taiwan-U.S. relation flies high since 2018. Besides the pass of Taiwan Travel Act and
Asian Re-Assurance Initiatives, more proposals are drafted, which complimented
the Taiwan Relations Act in detail, and gifts to celebrate the opening of AIT
new compound.
〈台灣保證法〉除支持台灣參與國際組織、軍售常態化、將台灣納入雙邊或多邊軍事演練外；最重要的是，授權總統派駐將級主官到台北擔任武官[1]。台北指的就是6日正式運作的AIT內湖新館，讓它未來具有實質大使館的地位；而將級軍官則與台灣駐美軍事代表團團長軍階相當。這豈是偶然？
Besides calling for supporting Taiwan in the participation of
international organizations, routine arms sales to Taiwan, and accept Taiwan’s
joining bilateral or multilateral military exercises, TAA also “requires that a
flag or general officer serve as the U.S. defense attaché in Taipei.” The term “Taipei” refers to AIT’s new compound,
which opened on May 6 serve as de facto U.S. Embassy. In addition to the commanding power of “a
flag or general officer” functions in time of emergency, the term echoes the
similar rank of the Head of R.O.C. Defense Mission to the U.S. It is not a coincidence.
戰後影響台灣政治發展，是佔領與冷戰兩大主軸。首先，台灣被盟軍佔領後開始政治重建；盟軍總部在1946年以〈SCAPIN
677〉將台灣割離日本管轄權範圍；原本應於對日和約確認台灣地位歸屬，卻因中國代表權與韓戰而延宕至今。其次，在冷戰時代，解決台灣問題的實際策略是：以中蘇分裂為契機，美國鼓勵中國融入國際社會—中共放棄輸出革命，則美中建交；若中國接受國際規則民主了，台灣地位便可透過「一中政策」來解決。
There are two major trends: the military occupation and the Cold War,
influence Taiwan’s post-war political development together. Firstly, Taiwan carried out political
reconstruction, shortly after the proxy occupation of the U.N. The Supreme Commander of the Allied Powers
issued SCAPIN 677 separating Japan’s administrative authority over Taiwan in
January 1646. However, the status did
not decide in the Treaty of Peace with Japan.
Secondly, a practical option to solve Taiwan Question in the Cold War
era was: taking the advantages of the split of Sino-U.S.S.R., the U.S.
encouraged Beijing to accept the world order, giving up exporting revolution,
the U.S. would establish diplomatic tie with China. The scenario the U.S expected is that Taiwan
Question will be solved under the model of “one China policy” consequently if
communist China accepts the rules and global order.
兩大主軸的交集是：台灣在美國鼓勵下透過民主化走向自治。
The above trends share single ground: Taiwan keeps evolving to a fully
democratic and self-ruled society under the encouragement of the U.S.
美中建交頭20年，雙方關係似按原先的設想發展—北京放鬆管制、發大財；美國賺錢、台灣民主。
The first two decades since 1979, the U.S.-China relations seemed
developed precisely on the track of the scenario: Beijing lifted the strict
rule, getting wealthy; the U.S. enterprises making business within the Iron Curtain,
and Taiwan becoming a democratic and free country.
但2010年前後事態有轉變，中共試圖用「天下觀」重塑亞洲和世界秩序，不願韜光養晦。美國終於不再容忍中國的貪婪本質。近日國務院政策規劃署主任之「美中之爭是文明衝突」說，表明美中對峙遠非貿易爭端，而是鐵了心的中長期戰略轉換。
However, something changed around 2010.
Reluctant to self-restraint, the Chinese communists intend to reshape
the balance power of Asia and even rebuild the existing global order by its
concept of “Heaven and Earth.” The U.S.
finally refused to tolerate greedy China.
That is the nature of the U.S.-China confrontation now. Kiron Skinner, the Director of Policy
Planning at the United States Department of State, said that the strife between
the U.S. and China is “a clash of civilizations”. Despite the controversy of stances, her
remark addressed the long term shift of the U.S. strategy.
這幾年台美關係飛快進展，標誌著前述戰略轉換。顯然，台灣地位會順勢切斷「一中」，朝更加獨立自主的方向發展。戰後七十五年，台灣政治重建路途即將收束，答案決非一國兩制。剩下的，只是白宮的時機判斷。
The fact that U.S.-Taiwan relation evolves dramatically in these couple
of years signifies the above strategic shift of the U.S. Obviously, the status of Taiwan will be
separated from the deal with China accordingly and toward an independent and
self-ruled Dominion. Taiwan’s 75 years
long post-war reconstruction is about to go to the end, the answer is
definitely not “One State, Two Systems.”
It is upon the political judgment of the White House.
【孿生文章】從將軍武官看〈台灣保證法〉
[1] Requires that a flag or
general officer serve as the U.S. defense attaché
in Taipei. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flag_officer In many countries, a flag officer is a senior
officer of the navy, specifically those who hold any of the admiral ranks; the
term may or may not include the rank of commodore.
In some countries, such as the United
States, India, or Bangladesh it may apply to all armed forces, not just the
navy. This means generals can also be considered flag officers.
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