美國務院官員：美中之爭是文明衝突 自由20190503

【Comment】

Kiron Skinner, the Director of Policy Planning at the United States Department of State, revealed that China “a fight with a really different civilization,” the first time in the US history.

Well, how about Japan of the Pacific War?

But the comment of the competition between the US and China is a confrontation of civilizations was right. 

China defies and denies the exited international rules.  She means to establish her own that prefers Beijing’s interests.

That also implies that it is not only CPC, but also the Chinese culture that causes the problems.

I expect to read the new "Letter X'."

喬治肯楠：蘇聯行為的根源（中譯文）--1/4

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美國務院官員：美中之爭是文明衝突    自由20190503

首個非白人強權對手 意識形態與西方不同 威脅更大

〔編譯茅毅／綜合報導〕相當於助理國務卿等級的美國國務院政策規劃主任史金納（Kiron Skinner），四月二十九日在美國智庫「新美國」（New America）舉辦的論壇中表示，美國與中國乃「全然不同的文明和不同意識形態的對抗」，而美國此前從未面臨過這種對抗。她還提到，這將是美國首次有一個非白種人的強權競爭對手。

政策規劃主任掌管國務院的內部智庫，傳統上由美國外交政策當權派人士擔任，首倡「圍堵」蘇聯政策的肯楠、前世銀總裁沃佛維茲等人，均曾出任這項要職。非裔美籍的史金納為哈佛大學政治學及國際關係博士。她在前述論壇中，提出其對何以美中之爭不同於美蘇冷戰的看法，並以德國政治理論家卡爾．馬克思對蘇聯的影響為例，證明冷戰乃「西方集團內部」的對抗。

史金納指稱，中國與西方自由世界存在文明和意識形態衝突，將對美國造成更大、更長期的威脅。美中的競爭不限於兩國的國家利益，亦存在於更廣泛的領域。美中的競爭與對抗程度，甚至超過美蘇。蘇聯信奉的馬克思主義，本質上仍是一種西方意識形態，因此美蘇的文明及意識形態對抗，仍只是西方家族內部的對抗，但中國目前的意識形態及文明結構，卻與西方認知截然不同。此外，哈佛大學教授艾利森也在其著作中警告，美中恐注定一戰。

許多專家不認同文明衝突說

史金納這番話引發美國的中國觀察家諸多批評，認為文明衝突過度簡化了此一美國面臨的最大挑戰。據華盛頓郵報二日報導，相較於美國總統川普大部分的外交政策，他對抗中國的做法在華府備受歡迎。許多人士同意，中國的貿易政策不公平、違反人權，在南海及台灣海峽擺出的侵略姿態也很危險。但川普政府針對北京當局所用的言詞，美國許多中國專家卻並非總是認同，他們不認為川普政府與中國國家主席習近平統治的中國紛爭屬「文明衝突」，較少專家認為種族乃美中之爭的核心。

五角大廈主管前副助理部長鄧志強（Abraham Denmark）就說，史金納的言論，反映出「根本誤解了中國本身和美國面對的挑戰」。智庫卡內基國際和平基金會研究員史文（Michael Swaine）也說，這是「相當駭人、基於種族主義者的評估」。智庫卡托研究所（Cato Institute）副主任萊斯特（Simon Lester）表示，美國一向有部分人士持續尋找一個強大的敵手，可能與美國競爭優勢的地位及世界的控制權。「文明衝突」乃哈佛大學教授杭亭頓於一九九○年代提出，他認為世界分為西方、中國、伊斯蘭等七或八個文明集團，冷戰後衝突的主要根源將來自文化。

State Department preparing for clash of civilizations with China    the Washington Examiner 20190430

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s team is developing a strategy for China based on the idea of “a fight with a really different civilization” for the first time in American history.

“This is a fight with a really different civilization and a different ideology and the United States hasn't had that before,” Kiron Skinner, the director of policy planning at the State Department, said Monday evening at a security forum in Washington, D.C.

Skinner is leading an effort to develop a concept of U.S.-China relations on the scale of what she called “Letter X” — the unsigned essay by George Kennan, who assessed “the sources of Soviet conduct” in 1947 and outlined the containment strategy that guided American strategists for the rest of the Cold War.  China poses a unique challenge, she said, because the regime in Beijing isn’t a child of Western philosophy and history.

“The Soviet Union and that competition, in a way it was a fight within the Western family,” Skinner said, noting Karl Marx’s indebtedness to Western political ideas.  “It’s the first time that we will have a great power competitor that is not Caucasian.”

Skinner credited retired Army Gen. H.R. McMaster, who served as White House national security adviser from March 2017 to March 2018, with recognizing the need for a National Security Strategy organized around the return of great power competition with Russia and China.  But those two rivals are not equivalent, she said, identifying Russia as a mere “global survivor” that pales in comparison to China.

“We see it as a more fundamental long-term threat,” Skinner told New America CEO Anne Marie Slaughter.  “In China, we have an economic competitor, we have an ideological competitor, one that really does seek a global reach that many of us didn't expect a couple of decades ago.”

Slaughter, who served as the head of policy planning for the State Department from 2009 to 2011, suggested that Skinner was offering the U.S.-China relationship as the "clash of civilizations" outlined in another landmark essay that discussed how geopolitics would change after the collapse of the Soviet Union.  Skinner concurred.

"Some of those tenets, but a little bit different," she answered.  "I think we have to take the rose-colored glasses off and get real about the nature of the threat.  And, I think we also have to give a kind of respect for, I think, what the Chinese seek to accomplish."

Trump has made a trade war with China one of the major undertakings of his administration, in pursuit of a trade deal to rebalance the relationship between the world’s two largest economies.  U.S. officials have also rebranded the Asia Pacific region as the Indo-Pacific, partly as a nod to China’s surge in Africa and the potential for India to function as a counter-weight to the Communist power.

But Pompeo has sounded the alarm about China’s influence around the world, warning of security threats in Europe and the Arctic, as well as predatory lending in the Western Hemisphere.

“Trade is not the only problem and maybe not the biggest in the long run with China,” Skinner said.  “But we're now looking more deeply and broadly at China.  And, I think State is in the lead in that broader attempt to get something like a Letter X for China, what Kennan wrote.  You can't have a policy without an argument underneath it.”

Pompeo’s team has rebuked China repeatedly for human rights abuses, especially the hostility to religious beliefs displayed by the regime’s mass detention of Uighur Muslims and the persecution of Christians and other religious minorities.  But Skinner suggested that human rights arguments might not be as useful against China as they were against the Soviet Union, which was weakened by a 1975 agreement that allowed Soviet dissidents to cooperate indirectly with Western powers to advocate for “the rights of emigration and religious freedom,” according to the State Department.

“It was a really important Western concept that opened the door really to undermine the Soviet Union, a totalitarian state, on human rights principles,” she said.  “That's not really possible with China.”