20250704 俄羅斯承認為塔利班阿富汗合法政府

【雙魚之論】
The timing is strikingly ironic: on the United States’ Independence Day, Russia formally recognized the Taliban’s “Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan,” a regime governed by a supreme leader under the banner of Islamic theocracy, devoid of separation of powers, clear legal frameworks, and mired in internal disorder. Contrary to expectations that China would be the first to fill the vacuum left by the U.S. withdrawal and recognize the new Afghan government, it was President Putin who took the lead.
From a geopolitical perspective, Putin’s announcement—following reports that he dismissed warnings from Russian intelligence agencies and sought to stabilize Russia’s partnership with China—appears aimed at safeguarding Russian interests in Central Asia while counterbalancing the regional influence of Iran and China. However, under international law, “premature recognition” of a new regime is generally viewed critically. If the recognized entity fails to maintain effective control or collapses, the recognizing state risks entanglement in legal and diplomatic complications.
Notably, while most states have refrained from formally recognizing the Taliban’s “Emirate,” many have chosen not to evacuate their embassies in Kabul, opting instead to remain and monitor the situation. The “Emirate,” for its part, has refrained from interfering with these diplomatic missions, seemingly awaiting broader international recognition. What does this situation suggest?
Historically, a parallel can be drawn to April 23, 1949, when the Chinese Communist forces entered Nanjing, the Capital of the Republic of China. By then, Chiang Kai-shek’s Nationalist government had already initiated a “phased evacuation and decentralized operations,” rendering its administrative structure fragmented and unsustainable, even before the formal establishment of the People’s Republic of China on October 1. Many foreign embassies chose to remain in Nanjing to observe developments rather than follow the Nationalist government’s relocation to Guangzhou, Chongqing then Chengdu.
By December 1949, the Nationalist government had retreated to Taiwan, proclaiming itself the “Republic of China.” However, foreign embassies did not relocate to Taipei. Even the unique case of the Vatican’s diplomatic mission never established an ambassadorial presence in Taipei. This indicates that, unlike during the Nanjing period, the international community did not widely recognize Chiang Kai-shek’s Taiwan-based regime as the “sole legitimate government representing China.” Despite Chiang’s declaration on March 1, 1950, to “resume duties,” his regime was regarded merely as a point of contact for post-war Allied affairs, not a sole legitimate governmental entity.
Another noteworthy case is the Afghan ceasefire in February 2020, during which the Biden administration issued a joint statement with the “Islamic Republic of Afghanistan” while simultaneously signing a peace agreement with the Taliban’s “Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.” The U.S. explicitly affirmed the “Islamic Republic” as a sovereign state and UN member, recognized as legitimate, while referring to the “Islamic Emirate” with the cumbersome designation: “the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, which is not recognized by the United States as a state and is known as the Taliban.” This phrasing categorizes the “Emirate” as a “belligerent” or “non-sovereign entity.” For Taiwanese observers, this bears a striking resemblance to the U.S. designation in the Taiwan Relations Act, which refers to Taiwan as “the governing authorities on Taiwan, recognized by the United States as the Republic of China prior to January 1, 1979.” In other words, the U.S., through domestic legislation, treats Taiwan as a “non-sovereign entity” with the status of a “belligerent.”

此事頗具諷刺意味：俄羅斯選擇在美國國慶日正式承認一個由最高領袖以神權名義統治、缺乏權力分立與明確規則、內政混亂的塔利班「阿富汗伊斯蘭酋長國」。原本預期中國會是填補美國勢力撤退後的空缺而首先承認阿富汗新政府，事實反倒是普丁率先出手。
地緣政治上，普丁在新聞〈報導稱普丁拒絕聽信俄國情報單位的警告，持續試圖和中國穩定夥伴關係〉後宣告承認阿富汗，表面上意在保護俄羅斯在中亞地區的利益，骨子裡也可制衡伊朗與中國等國的區域影響力。然而，國際法對「過早承認」新政權通常持負面態度。理由是，若被承認的政權無法維持有效控制，甚至最終崩潰，過早承認的國家可能陷入法律與外交困境。
更值得注意的是，儘管多數國家尚未正式承認塔利班的「酋長國」，但許多國家的駐喀布爾大使館並未撤離，而是選擇留守觀察局勢。「酋長國」方面也未侵犯各國使館，似乎在等待國際社會的正式承認。這是怎樣一種情境？
回顧歷史，1949年4月23日，中國共產黨軍隊攻入中華民國首都南京，當時蔣介石領導的國民政府已提前實施「分批疏散、分地辦公」，政府架構難以整合統一，不待稍後中華人民共和國於10月1日的建政，中華民國已是崩潰狀態。許多國家的駐南京大使館選擇留守觀察，而未隨國民政府遷往廣州、重慶或成都。
1949年12月，國民政府最終敗退台灣，雖自稱「中華民國」，但各國大使館並未隨之遷台。甚至連較為特殊的「梵蒂岡」使館也從未在台北設立大使級駐點。這表明，國際社會並未如同在南京時期一般，普遍承認遷台的蔣介石政權為「代表中國的唯一合法政府」。即使蔣介石於1950年3月1日宣布「復行視事」，其地位也僅被視為盟軍戰後事務的聯絡對象，而非完整的合法政府實體。
另一個值得關注的現象是，阿富汗停火案例中，拜登政府在2020年2月29日同時與「阿富汗伊斯蘭共和國」發表聯合聲明，並與塔利班的「阿富汗伊斯蘭酋長國」簽署和平協議。美國明確表示「共和國」是作為聯合國會員國，是美國認可的主權國家，具備合法地位；相對的，美國則以冗長的措辭稱「酋長國」為「美國不承認其為國家、通常被稱為塔利班的阿富汗伊斯蘭酋長國」（the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, which is not recognized by the United States as a state and is known as the Taliban），意即視其為「交戰團體」或「非主權實體」。做為台灣人，不免回顧美國在〈台灣關係法〉中對台灣的冗長稱呼，即「台灣統治當局（1979年1月1日前美國承認其為中華民國）」（the governing authorities on Taiwan, recognized by the United States as the Republic of China prior to January 1, 1979）。換言之，美國以國內法律承認台灣是具「交戰團體」地位的「非主權實體」。
1949年10月1日毛澤東的抉擇

塔利班執政首獲承認 俄羅斯認可為阿富汗合法政府    中央社 20250704

阿富汗塔利班（Taliban）政府今天宣布，俄羅斯成為第一個正式承認其統治的國家，還說俄羅斯此舉是「勇敢的決定」。

法新社報導，阿富汗外交部長穆塔奇（Amir Khan Muttaqi）與俄羅斯駐阿富汗大使澤諾夫（Dmitry Zhirnov）在喀布爾會晤後，宣布這項消息。

穆塔奇在社群平台X發布的會晤影片中表示：「這一勇敢的決定將成為他國榜樣…承認的進程既已展開，俄羅斯就走在了所有人的前面。」

塔利班外交部發言人塔卡爾（Zia Ahmad Takal）對法新社提及其正式國名「阿富汗伊斯蘭大公國」（Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan）說：「俄羅斯是第一個正式承認這個伊斯蘭大公國的國家。」

莫斯科的阿富汗事務特別代表卡布洛夫（Zamir Kabulov）告訴俄羅斯國家通訊社「俄羅斯新聞社」（Ria Novosti），俄國政府已經「承認」了塔利班政府。

俄羅斯外交部也對塔斯社（TASS）證實這項消息。

包括中國和巴基斯坦在內，多國接受塔利班在其首都派駐大使，但先前無一國正式承認這個伊斯蘭大公國。