美國危險的朋友 Eurasia 20240108 / Taimocracy翻譯

美國危險的朋友　Eurasia 20240108 / Taimocracy翻譯

AMERICA'S DANGEROUS FRIENDS America's enemies are becoming more dangerous, but even its friends could drag it into expanded conflicts this year.	美國危險的朋友 美國的敵人正變得越來越危險，但即使是它的朋友也可能在今年將其拖入擴大的衝突。
Volodymyr Zelensky. President Joe Biden has been Ukraine's staunchest supporter since Russia's invasion in February 2022. Having pledged to stay by Kyiv's side “as long as it takes,” he has shepherded $113 billion in military and other aid that has proven vital to Ukrainians' ability to defend themselves. Biden has done this even though he neither likes nor trusts President Zelensky. However, political support for Ukraine within the US has wavered as the war has dragged on, seriously undermining Biden's ability to keep the aid coming past this year. And if Donald Trump—who considers Zelensky a personal adversary—wins in November, Ukrainians can wave goodbye to their biggest backer (please see Top Risk #1). Cracks have also emerged within Ukraine, where infighting between Zelensky and Chief of the Armed Forces Valery Zaluzhny (over military strategy) as well as Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko (over Zelensky's allegedly authoritarian leadership) has spilled into the open, threatening Ukrainian political unity and fueling more skepticism among Kyiv's friends.	弗拉基米爾·澤倫斯基　自2022年2月俄羅斯入侵以來，喬·拜登總統一直是烏克蘭最堅定的支援者。他承諾「只要需要」就留在基輔身邊，他已經提供了1130億美元的軍事和其他援助，這些援助已被證明對烏克蘭人的自衛能力至關重要。拜登這樣做了，儘管他既不喜歡也不信任澤倫斯基總統。然而，隨著戰爭的拖延，美國國內對烏克蘭的政治支持已經動搖，嚴重削弱了拜登今年保持援助的能力。如果唐納德·川普——他認為澤倫斯基是其個人對手——在11月獲勝，烏克蘭人可以向他們最大的支援者揮手告別（請參閱最高風險 #1）。烏克蘭內部也出現了裂痕，澤倫斯基與武裝部隊總司令瓦列里·扎盧日尼（關於軍事戰略）以及基輔市長維塔利·克里琴科（關於澤倫斯基所謂的獨裁領導）之間的內訌已經公開化，威脅到烏克蘭的政治團結，並加劇了基輔朋友之間的更多懷疑。
Under pressure domestically and frustrated with both diminishing US support and increasing difficulties on the battlefield, a desperate Zelensky will be willing to take bigger risks to turn the war around and maintain his political standing before Trump potentially takes office (please see Top Risk #3). This includes more aggressive attacks against targets in Russia, Crimea, and the Black Sea, threatening a response from Russia and potentially forcing the United States to become more directly involved in the war.	在國內的壓力下，對美國支援減少和戰場困難增加感到沮喪，絕望的澤倫斯基將願意承擔更大的風險來扭轉戰爭，並在川普可能上任之前保持他的政治地位（請參閱最高風險#3）。這包括對俄羅斯、克里米亞和黑海的目標進行更積極的攻擊，威脅到俄羅斯的回應，並可能迫使美國更直接地捲入戰爭。
Benjamin Netanyahu. Israel is America's closest ally in the Middle East, the only democracy in the region, and the largest cumulative recipient of US foreign aid. It is no surprise that Biden—a self-described Zionist and longtime Israel supporter—strongly backed Israel's initial response to Hamas's 7 October attacks, despite his complicated relationship with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Since then, however, a public rift has opened between the two over the conduct and endgame of the war in Gaza. They are also at odds about the role the Palestinian Authority should play in Gaza's postwar governance as well as the viability of a two-state solution. Fundamentally, Biden wants to see the war end, while Netanyahu has political and personal reasons to keep it going or even escalate it.	班傑明·納坦雅胡　以色列是美國在中東最親密的盟友，是該地區唯一的民主國家，也是美國對外援助的最大累計接受國。毫不奇怪，拜登——自稱是猶太復國主義者和以色列的長期支援者——強烈支援以色列對哈馬斯10月7日襲擊的最初反應，儘管他與總理班傑明·納坦雅胡關係複雜。然而，從那時起，兩人之間就加薩戰爭的進行和結局產生了公開裂痕。他們對巴勒斯坦權力機構在加薩戰後治理中應發揮的作用以及兩國解決方案的可行性也存在分歧。從根本上說，拜登希望看到戰爭結束，而納坦雅胡有政治和個人原因讓它繼續下去，甚至升級戰爭。
Determined to stay in power and out of jail and emboldened by the possibility that his friend Trump returns to power in January 2025, Netanyahu will push back against pressure from Biden to end the war. He will ignore calls for restraint in Gaza while eyeing more conflict with Hezbollah in the north (please see Top Risk #2). He will also continue to inflame tensions in the West Bank and thwart any efforts to create a Palestinian state in the future. As a result, the United States will be inextricably tied to an intensifying conflict over which it has limited influence—one that will further strain US relations with the Arab world, the Global South, and even some allies, as well as create political challenges for Biden at home. Should Netanyahu decide to preemptively strike Hezbollah or even Iran itself, the US would find itself drawn into a much broader Middle East war.	納坦雅胡決心繼續掌權並出獄，並受到他的朋友川普在2025年1月重新掌權的可能性的鼓舞，他將抵制拜登要求結束戰爭的壓力。他將無視加薩要求克制的呼籲，同時著眼於與北部真主黨的更多衝突（請參閱最高風險#2）。他還將繼續加劇約旦河西岸的緊張局勢，並挫敗未來建立巴勒斯坦國的任何努力。因此，美國將與一場日益加劇的衝突密不可分，而這場衝突的影響力有限——這場衝突將進一步加劇美國與阿拉伯世界、全球南方甚至一些盟國的關係，並在國內給拜登帶來政治挑戰。如果納坦雅胡決定先發制人地打擊真主黨甚至伊朗本身，美國將發現自己被捲入了一場更廣泛的中東戰爭。
William Lai. Washington's long-standing “one China” policy and its security cooperation with Taiwan have been critical to deterring both a Chinese invasion and a declaration of independence from Taipei. Although Biden has repeatedly said the US would defend Taiwan against a Chinese attack, “strategic ambiguity” remains the official stance, and the president has no desire to risk a crisis with Beijing over the island. But the uneasy status quo in the Taiwan Strait will soon be tested if Taiwan elects Vice President William Lai, the ruling party candidate whom China views as the most pro-independence Taiwanese leader in a generation, as president (and his running mate Hsiao Bi-khim, Taiwan's former representative to the US, as vice president).	賴清德　華盛頓長期以來的「一個中國」政策以及與台灣的安全合作一直對阻止中國入侵和阻止台北宣布獨立至關重要。儘管拜登一再表示，美國將保衛台灣免受中國的攻擊，但「戰略模糊」仍然是官方立場，總統不想冒著與北京在台灣發生危機的風險。但是，如果台灣選舉執政黨候選人賴清德（中國認為是一代人以來最支援獨立的台灣領導人）擔任總統（以及他的競選搭檔、台灣前駐美國代表蕭美琴擔任副總統），台灣海峽的不安現狀將很快受到考驗。
While Biden will oppose any de jure independence moves from Lai, the domestic politics of the Taiwan issue will prevent the US president from objecting to the smaller, symbolic steps toward de facto autonomy Lai is likely to take. Yet even these will be enough to provoke a beyond-precedent military response from Beijing, such as violating Taiwan's airspace or waters or conducting ship inspections. Biden will be forced to respond to Chinese aggression with a show of resolve in support for Taipei that could jeopardize the US-China thaw and risk a dangerous cycle of escalation.	雖然拜登將反對賴的任何法理的獨立行動，但台灣的國內政治將阻止美國總統的反對，並將使賴採取更小、象徵性的步驟，走向事實上的自治。然而，即便如此，也足以激起北京前所未有的軍事反應，例如侵犯台灣領空或水域或進行船舶檢查。拜登將被迫以支援台北的決心來回應中國的侵略，這可能會危及美中解凍，並冒著危險的升級迴圈。
Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan will all continue to be major US allies. But their leaders' pursuit of their national—and, occasionally, personal—interests will further entangle Washington in growing conflicts.	烏克蘭、以色列和台灣都將繼續是美國的主要盟友。但是，他們的領導人對國家利益（有時是個人利益）的追求將進一步使華盛頓捲入日益加劇的衝突。

https://www.eurasiagroup.net/live-post/risk-5-axis-of-rogues