中國無視北韓挑釁，風險自負 China Ignores North Korea’s Provocations at Its Own Risk Min-yong Lee＠The Diplomat 20231122

【雙魚之論】英文拷到 G / D 找中文翻譯
普京與金正恩會晤：他們究竟談了些什麼 BBC 20230914
The author concludes that, in the face of the growing closeness between Russia and North Korea, particularly in the areas of military satellite cooperation, rocket development, and the miniaturization of nuclear bombs, China surprisingly remains silent. Despite North Korea being the only alliance of the People's Republic of China (PRC), the two nations do not share the same course. Responding to China’s attempt to curb North Korea's development of nuclear weapons, young North Korean officials claimed during a visit to Beijing in the Jiang Zemin era that they could potentially bomb Shanghai or Beijing with a nuclear weapon, asserting that China would never recover from such devastation.

This assertion has since become part of North Korea's laws, allowing preemptive nuclear strikes. If China continues to remain silent on North Korea's nuclear development, it poses a potential threat to China, creating a worse scenario in the future.

中國無視北韓挑釁，風險自負 China Ignores North Korea’s Provocations at Its Own Risk   Min-yong Lee＠The Diplomat 20231122

China was silent on North Korea’s launch of a military satellite, just as it has kept quiet on rapid advancements in Pyongyang’s missile program. Is a nuclear test next?  中國對朝鮮發射軍用衛星保持沉默，就像它對平壤導彈計劃的快速進展保持沉默一樣。接下來是核試驗嗎？ 

Poisonous mushrooms are growing quietly behind the deepening shadow of simultaneous international security crises. The war in Ukraine has continued for nearly two years, and Israel, which suffered civilian casualties from Hamas’ attacks on October 7, is engaging in a thorough revenge war that makes little distinction between civilians and combatants. Both conflicts have caused major waves in international politics and the economy.  毒蘑菇在同時發生的國際安全危機日益加深的陰影背後悄然生長。烏克蘭戰爭已經持續了近兩年，在10月7日哈馬斯的襲擊中遭受平民傷亡的以色列正在進行一場徹底的報復性戰爭，幾乎不區分平民和戰鬥人員。這兩場衝突都嚴重波及國際政治和經濟。

However, while the world’s attention was focused on Ukraine and Israel, pre-existing threats in the international community were not resolved but worsened. One of these issues is North Korea’s military provocation.  然而，當世界的注意力集中在烏克蘭和以色列時，國際社會先前存在的威脅並沒有得到解決，反而惡化了。其中一個問題是北韓的軍事挑釁。

On the evening of November 21, North Korea launched a military spy satellite. According to the North’s state media, the satellite succeeded in entering orbit. North Korea had previously attempted to launch a spy satellite in August, but the effort failed due to a problem with the rocket engine. Neighboring countries are paying attention to how North Korea solved the problem in three months.  11月21日晚，朝鮮發射了一顆軍事間諜衛星。據朝鮮官方媒體報導，這顆衛星成功進入軌道。朝鮮此前曾試圖在8月發射一顆間諜衛星，但由於火箭發動機出現問題，這一努力失敗了。周邊國家正在關注北韓如何在三個月內解決問題。

South Korea’s military authorities said Russia provided technical advice after the Russia-North Korea summit in September, including dispatching engineers to North Korea.  韓國軍事當局表示，俄羅斯在9月俄朝峰會後提供了技術建議，包括向朝鮮派遣工程師。

Pyongyang’s launch of a spy satellite constitutes a violation of United Nations Security Council sanctions against North Korea. In response, neighboring countries such as South Korea, the United States, and Japan immediately condemned North Korea’s provocative actions. However, China, which has the longest border with North Korea, is silent, ignoring the growing threat.  平壤發射間諜衛星違反了聯合國安理會對北韓的制裁。對此，韓國、美國和日本等鄰國立即譴責了北韓的挑釁行為。然而，與北韓邊界最長的中國保持沉默，無視日益增長的威脅。

This contrasts with the past, when the Chinese Foreign Ministry expressed regret over North Korea’s satellite launch in 2012. This time, the ministry’s spokesperson said only that China had “noticed” the satellite launch, then seemed to justify the act by adding, “The Korean Peninsula is in today’s situation for a reason.” With only tacit sympathy emanating from China, North Korea is preparing for another armed provocation.  這與過去形成鮮明對比，當時中國外交部對朝鮮在2012年發射衛星表示遺憾。這一次，該部發言人只說中國已經「注意到」了衛星發射，然後似乎為這一行為辯護，並補充說，「朝鮮半島處於今天的局勢是有原因的。」由於只有來自中國的默許同情，朝鮮正在為另一次武裝挑釁做準備。

It has been about a year since North Korea reportedly completed preparations for its seventh nuclear test. In April of this year, General Paul LaCamera, the commander of the U.S. Forces in Korea, stated that the technical preparations for North Korea’s upcoming nuclear test had been completed, and all that remained was a decision from top leader Kim Jong Un. If the North successfully miniaturizes nuclear warheads in the next test, there will be an acceleration not only in its intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) development but also in the advancement of tactical nuclear warheads.  據報導，朝鮮完成第七次核試驗的準備工作已經過去了大約一年。今年4月，駐韓美軍司令保羅·拉卡梅拉將軍表示，朝鮮即將進行的核試驗的技術準備工作已經完成，剩下的就是最高領導人金正恩的決定。如果朝鮮在下一次試驗中成功地將核彈頭小型化，那麼不僅其洲際彈道導彈（ICBM）的發展將加速，而且戰術核彈頭的發展也將加速。

North Korea’s willingness to use nuclear weapons has also grown to a worrying level. In September of this year, its nuclear force policy was enacted into law specifying the defensive purposes and the conditions for preemptive nuclear strikes. The law states that a nuclear strike will be automatically initiated if the leadership, including Kim Jong Un, is believed to be in danger. Particularly alarming is the potential use of nuclear weapons due to misperception and misjudgment. This makes the possession of a nuclear arsenal by North Korea, a regime with a closed decision-making structure, a colossal security threat to neighboring countries.  朝鮮使用核武器的意願也已經發展到令人擔憂的程度。今年9月，其核力量政策被制定為法律，明確了先發制人核打擊的防禦目的和條件。該法律規定，如果包括金正恩在內的領導人認為處於危險之中，將自動啟動核打擊。特別令人震驚的是，由於誤解和誤判，可能使用核武器。這使得朝鮮擁有核武庫，一個具有封閉決策結構的政權，對鄰國構成了巨大的安全威脅。

China should be the most vocal about this issue. While the United States aims to thwart Pyongyang’s ICBM development from a homeland defense perspective, China is more likely to suffer the repercussions of North Korea’s development of nuclear weapons. It is time for China to reassess its strategy toward North Korea, given Pyongyang’s maneuver to seek military cooperation with Russia.  在這個問題上，中國應該最直言不諱。雖然美國的目標是從國土防禦的角度挫敗平壤的洲際彈道導彈發展，但中國更有可能遭受朝鮮發展核武器的影響。鑒於平壤尋求與俄羅斯軍事合作的策略，現在是中國重新評估其對朝鮮戰略的時候了。

Regional powers are keen to eliminate security threats from surrounding forces to establish a security-threat-free zone. However, China has made the strategic error of disregarding Pyongyang’s nuclear development, thereby turning all of Northeast Asia into a danger zone.  地區大國熱衷於消除來自周邊勢力的安全威脅，以建立無安全威脅區。然而，中國卻犯了無視平壤核發展的戰略錯誤，使整個東北亞地區成為危險地區。

The most immediate risk is the exposure of numerous Chinese citizens to radioactive contamination. In 2018, the South Korean government conducted radiation exposure tests on North Korean defectors from Punggye-ri, where the nuclear test site is located. It confirmed genetic mutations in five out of 10 individuals who had been tested. The level of radiation exposure detected in these individuals was significantly higher than the standard threshold for cancer risk.  最直接的風險是許多中國公民暴露在放射性污染中。2018年，韓國政府對來自核試驗場所在豐溪里的脫北者進行了輻射暴露測試。它證實了10個接受測試的人中有5個的基因突變。在這些個體中檢測到的輻射暴露水平明顯高於癌症風險的標準閾值。

There have been reports in Hong Kong media that radiation levels have risen in Jilin province in China, which is 70 kilometers away from Punggye-ri. Experts believe that the ground around Punggye-ri may have become significantly weakened after six nuclear tests conducted over the past 25 years, leading to increased radiation leakage.  香港媒體報導稱，距離豐溪里70公里的中國吉林省的輻射水準有所上升。專家認為，在過去25年中進行了六次核試驗後，豐溪里周圍的地盤可能已經大大變弱，導致輻射洩漏增加。

Looking at the longer term, increasing military tensions in Northeast Asia due to North Korea’s armed provocation will pose an obstacle to China’s cooperation with the international community. The United States will strengthen its massive containment network against the China-Russia-North Korea coalition in the Indo-Pacific region to prevent the military provocations of Pyongyang. China could find itself isolated, with its economic growth engine potentially stalling, especially as NATO’s Asia expansion theory gains momentum and China-U.S. hegemonic competition intensifies.  從長遠來看，朝鮮的武裝挑釁導致東北亞的軍事緊張局勢加劇，將對中國與國際社會的合作構成障礙。美國將加強其在印太地區對中俄朝聯盟的大規模遏制網路，以防止平壤的軍事挑釁。中國可能會發現自己被孤立了，其經濟增長引擎可能會停滯不前，尤其是在北約的亞洲擴張理論獲得動力和中美關係發展的情況下。霸權競爭愈演愈烈。

Already, North Korea’s provocations are having an impact. Seoul and Pyongyang signed the 9.19 Military Agreement in 2018 to stop mutual hostilities and establish a buffer zone. However, on November 22, a day after North Korea launched a military spy satellite, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol approved the suspension of the clause forswearing reconnaissance and surveillance activities around the inter-Korean border.  朝鮮的挑釁行為已經產生了影響。首爾和平壤於2018年簽署了9.19軍事協定，以停止相互敵對行動並建立緩衝區。然而，11月22日，在朝鮮發射軍事間諜衛星的第二天，韓國總統尹錫悅批准暫停放棄在朝韓邊境周圍進行偵察和監視活動的條款。

In addition, if nuclear armament proponents gain traction in South Korea and Japan in response to North Korea’s nuclear threat, and a “nuclear domino effect” begins, China will ultimately become the most extraordinary victim. Beijing should acknowledge that Pyongyang has already crossed the red line and take a proactive stance in preventing North Korea’s military threats.  此外，如果核軍備支援者在韓國和日本獲得支援以應對朝鮮的核威脅，並開始出現「核骨牌效應」，中國最終將成為最特別的受害者。北京應該承認平壤已經越過了紅線，並採取積極主動的立場來防止北韓的軍事威脅。