PLA投資滾裝輪以搶進輜重 China Ramps Up Ro-Ro Ships

【雙魚之論】英文拷到 G / D 找中文翻譯
China Accelerates Construction of ‘Ro-Ro’ Vessels, with Potential Military Implications    CSIS 20231011

中國增建滾裝船 助武力犯台    台時 20231021

美國「新聞周刊」在一篇分析指出，中國最近大量建造滾裝船，此舉可能有助於武力犯台，因滾裝船可彌補解放軍攻台期間海軍運輸能力的不足。

　「新聞周刊」引述「戰略與國際研究中心」（CSIS）「中國實力計畫」提出的一份新報告，稱中國增加滾裝船的產量可能預示一種雙重策略。這些船除平時的運輸功能外，還可以在攻擊台灣時使用。

　台灣的政、軍高層數十年來都在試圖阻止來自海峽彼岸的兩棲入侵。

　滾裝船可將汽車、卡車、巴士和拖車運送至離岸地點。隨需求成長，滾裝船已成為中國製電動車運至世界各地的重要載具，然而中方戰略人員已考慮在攻台時利用滾裝船。

　CSIS在報告中說「滾裝船通常不具殺傷力，但中國軍事規劃者已注意到這種船的軍民兩用性，並正利用這些船來增強中國人民解放軍的戰力」。

　中國於2016年通過相關法律，強制中國海運企業必須配合「捍衛國家利益的軍事行動」意味中國在犯台期間可徵用企業的滾裝船。

　目前全球有700多艘滾裝船，中國企業運營的滾裝船數不到100艘。

　CSIS這篇分析指出，中國造船廠可能在2023至2026年間交付多達200艘滾裝船。

　報告稱「換句話說，解放軍缺乏足夠軍事設備運送大量部隊與裝備投入重點戰區。顯而易見的是它需動員更多額外裝備來對台進行大規模的聯合登陸作戰」。

 

China Ramps Up Building Ships That Could Help it Invade Taiwan    Newsweek 20231017

China has ramped up its production of roll-on/roll-off (ro-ro) ships that could be used during an assault on Taiwan.

A new report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) China Power Project has said that China's rising production of ro-ro vessels could signal a dual strategy to use these vessels in an attack on Taiwan. Political and military leaders in Taipei have spent decades trying to deter an amphibious invasion across the Taiwan Strait.

The roll-on/roll-off ships transport cars, trucks, buses, and trailers to offshore locations. The ro-ro vessels have become a pivotal means of transporting electric vehicles manufactured in China to locations worldwide as the demand for Chinese electric vehicles has grown. However, China's military strategists have mulled over the idea of using ro-ros during an attack on Taiwan.

"While ro-ros are generally innocuous, Chinese military planners have taken note of their dual-use capabilities and are making use of the ships to enhance the capabilities of the People's Liberation Army (PLA)," said the CSIS report.

Beijing passed a law in 2016 that makes it mandatory for Chinese maritime companies to assist with "military operations in defending national interests." The company's ro-ros could be called on during an attack on Taiwan.

While there are over 700 ro-ro ships worldwide, Chinese companies operate fewer than 100 of those ships. An analysis by authors of the CSIS said that Chinese shipyards may deliver up to 200 ro-ros between 2023 and 2026, a significant uptick in building these types of vessels, which have dual-use capabilities.

"In other words, the PLA lacks sufficient military hardware to transport large numbers of troops and equipment to key theaters. Most notably, the PLA would need to mobilize additional equipment to conduct a large-scale joint island landing campaign against Taiwan," said the CSIS report.

Collin Koh, a senior fellow at the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, told Newsweek that the ro-ros could be used in different ways.

"There are two scenarios to consider here; peacetime gray zone, and wartime contingency. In the first instance, the use of ro-ro vessels for gray zone would be rather limited, and in this case, it's worth mentioning that any civilian vessel of specific utility, not just ro-ro, can be utilized for such contingencies," Koh said.

He added that the ro-ros could be used for building a sea bridge between the mainland and Taiwan during an attack by Beijing.

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"In times of war, these ships are meant to: serve as follow-on forces transport across the strait following the establishment of a secure beach-head, which includes of course, Taiwanese ports that are seized and controlled by PLA forces on the onset of invasion; and to sustain the forces fighting on Taiwan through a 'sea bridge' to the mainland, from where the PLA can draw on rear logistics support," Koh said.

The ro-ros can cover the gap in the PLA's current naval capability to sustain an amphibious vehicle during an attack on Taiwan.

"On the whole, besides the obvious need for these kinds of vessels to conduct sustainment in times of conflict, the fact that Beijing invests in ro-ro vessels is also to do with the envisaged shortfalls in specialized military sealift capabilities, such as those large amphibious assault landing vessels of the Type-071 and Type-075. And a major enabler in this whole enterprise is the People's Republic of China's vast, highly productive shipbuilding industry." Koh added.

The ro-ro ships may appear to be the perfect approach for Beijing's naval strategy against Taiwan during a war, but on closer look, these vessels will also become a target. The CSIS report has alluded to the loophole in using the ro-ros as they will become an easy target by "attacking aircraft and warships armed with anti-ship missiles," and other experts have highlighted the same problem.

"The ro-ro vessels pose a threat in wartime insofar as the Chinese are able to provide sustainable air and naval protective cover for these ships. Beijing is able to ensure that this fleet of ro-ro vessels are themselves survivable and sustainable against enemy strikes at ports, where they're homeported at, and the supporting shipyard infrastructure," Koh said.

"In other words, these ro-ro vessels pose a threat in wartime so long as Beijing is able to maintain a secure 'sea bridge' across the Taiwan Strait; that is, naval and air dominance in the theater that can secure PRC forces against enemy action," Koh added.