葉倫演講〈美中經濟關係〉 美國財政部長葉倫＠約翰霍普金斯 / Taimocracy 20230420

葉倫演講〈美中經濟關係〉    美國財政部長葉倫＠約翰霍普金斯 / Taimocracy 20230420

Remarks by Secretary of the Treasury Janet L. Yellen on the U.S. - China Economic Relationship at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies    The Treasure Department 20230420

Good morning, everyone. Dean Steinberg, thank you for your kind introduction. And thank you for your service to our country. I’m grateful for your contributions – not only during your time in government but here at SAIS.  大家，早安。 Dean Steinberg，感謝你們的友好介紹。感謝你們為我們的國家所做的服務。我感謝你們的貢獻——不僅是在你們在政府任職期間，而且在 SAIS。

I’m particularly glad to be at this institution. SAIS has one of the oldest and most extensive China studies programs in the country. In 1979, the United States established full diplomatic relations with the People’s Republic of China. Just two years after, your university leaders had their own talks with their Chinese counterparts. The goal was to see whether Johns Hopkins and Nanjing University could partner together to educate future leaders.  我特別高興來到這個機構。 SAIS 擁有該國歷史最悠久、範圍最廣的中國研究項目之一。 1979年，美國與中華人民共和國建立正式外交關係。僅僅兩年後，你們的大學領導與中國同行進行了自己的會談。目的是看看約翰霍普金斯大學和南京大學是否可以合作培養未來的領導者。

The result: the establishment of the Hopkins-Nanjing Center in 1986 – one of the first Western academic programs in modern China. This collaboration has been tested by the realities and complexities of our bilateral relationship. But I believe the students on this campus have served as a reminder of the respect that the American and Chinese people have for each other. And they demonstrate that people around the world can learn from one another if we communicate openly and honestly – even and especially when we disagree.  結果：霍普金斯大學南京中心於 1986 年成立——這是現代中國最早的西方學術項目之一。我們雙邊關係的現實性和複雜對這種合作進行了考驗。但我相信這個校園裡的學生提醒我們，美國和中國人民相互尊重。它們表明，如果我們開誠佈公地交流，世界各地的人們都可以相互學習——即使我們意見不一致，尤其如此。

Since I began my career, the relationship between the United States and China has undergone a significant evolution. In the 1970s, our relationship was defined by rapprochement and gradual normalization. I watched President Nixon make his famous journey to China in 1972. And I heard our two countries begin to speak to each other again after decades of silence. In the years that followed, I saw China choose to implement market reforms and open itself to the global economy, driving an impressive rise into the second-largest economy in the world. Its development was supported by assistance from the World Bank and other international economic institutions. And the U.S. Congress and successive administrations played a major role in supporting China’s integration into global markets.  自從我開始我的職業生涯以來，美國和中國之間的關係先進生了重大變化。在 1970 年代，我們的關係以和解和逐漸正常化為特徵[1]。我看到尼克森總統在 1972 年進行了著名的中國之行。我聽到我們兩國在數十年的沉默之後再次開始相互交談。在隨後的幾年裡，我看到中國選擇實施市場改革並向全球經濟開放，並以驚人的速度崛起成為世界第二大經濟體。它的先進展得到了世界銀行和其他國際經濟機構的援助支持。美國國會和歷屆政府在支持中國融入全球市場方面先進揮了重要作用。

But in recent years, I’ve also seen China’s decision to pivot away from market reforms toward a more state-driven approach that has undercut its neighbors and countries across the world. This has come as China is striking a more confrontational posture toward the United States and our allies and partners – not only in the Indo-Pacific but also in Europe and other regions.  但近年來，我也看到中國決定從市場改革轉向更加國家驅動的方式，這種方式削弱了其鄰國和世界各國的利益。這是因為中國對美國以及我們的盟友和合作夥伴採取了更具對抗性的姿態——不僅在印太地區，而且在歐洲和其他地區。

Today, we are at a critical time. The world is confronting the largest land war in Europe since World War II – just as it recovers from a once-in-a-century pandemic. Debt challenges are mounting for low- and middle-income countries. Some nations, including our own, have faced pressures on their economic and financial systems. And a U.N. report released last month indicates that the Earth is likely to cross a critical global warming threshold within the next decade – if no drastic action is taken.  今天，我們正處於關鍵時刻。世界正面臨著二戰以來歐洲最大規模的地面戰爭——就在它從百年一遇的大流行病中恢復過來的時候。低收入和中等收入國家的債務挑戰越來越大。包括我們自己在內的一些國家的經濟和金融體系面臨著壓力。聯合國上個月先進布的一份報告表明，如果不採取嚴厲行動，地球可能會在未來十年內跨過全球暖化的臨界閾值。

Progress on these issues requires constructive engagement between the world’s two largest economies. Yet our relationship is clearly at a tense moment.  在這些問題上取得進展需要世界上最大的兩個經濟體之間的建設性接觸。然而，我們的關係顯然處於緊張時刻。

So today, I would like to discuss our economic relationship with China. My goal is to be clear and honest: to cut through the noise and speak to this essential relationship based on sober realities.   所以今天，我想談談我們與中國的經濟關係。我的目標是明確和誠實：消除噪音，根據清醒的現實談論這種重要的關係。

The United States proceeds with confidence in its long-term economic strength. We remain the largest and most dynamic economy in the world. We also remain firm in our conviction to defend our values and national security. Within that context, we seek a constructive and fair economic relationship with China. Both countries need to be able to frankly discuss difficult issues. And we should work together, when possible, for the benefit of our countries and the world.  美國對其長期經濟實力充滿信心。我們仍然是世界上最大和最具活力的經濟體。我們也堅信捍衛我們的價值觀和國家安全。在此背景下，我們尋求與中國建立建設性和公平的經濟關係。兩國都需要能夠坦誠地討論棘手的問題。在可能的情況下，我們應該共同努力，造福於我們的國家和世界。

Our economic approach to China has three principal objectives.  我們對中國的經濟方針有三個主要目標。

First, we will secure our national security interests and those of our allies and partners, and we will protect human rights. We will clearly communicate to the PRC our concerns about its behavior. And we will not hesitate to defend our vital interests. Even as our targeted actions may have economic impacts, they are motivated solely by our concerns about our security and values. Our goal is not to use these tools to gain competitive economic advantage.  首先，我們將確保我們的國家安全利益以及我們的盟友和夥伴的國家安全利益，我們將保護人權。我們將向中國明確表達我們對其行為的擔憂。我們將毫不猶豫地捍衛我們的切身利益。儘管我們的針對性行動可能會產生經濟影響，但它們的動機完全是出於我們對自身安全和價值觀的擔憂。我們的目標不是使用這些工具來獲得競爭性經濟優勢。

Second, we seek a healthy economic relationship with China: one that fosters growth and innovation in both countries. A growing China that plays by international rules is good for the United States and the world. Both countries can benefit from healthy competition in the economic sphere. But healthy economic competition – where both sides benefit – is only sustainable if that competition is fair. We will continue to partner with our allies to respond to China’s unfair economic practices. And we will continue to make critical investments at home – while engaging with the world to advance our vision for an open, fair, and rules-based global economic order.  其次，我們尋求與中國建立健康的經濟關係：一種促進兩國增長和創新的關係。一個按照國際規則行事的成長中的中國對美國和世界都有好處。兩國都可以從經濟領域的良性競爭中獲益。但健康的經濟競爭——雙方都受益——只有在競爭公平的情況下才能持續。我們將繼續與我們的盟友合作，共同應對中國不公平的經濟行為。我們將繼續在國內進行重要投資——同時與世界接洽，以推進我們對開放、公平和基於規則的全球經濟秩序的願景。

Third, we seek cooperation on the urgent global challenges of our day. Since last year’s meeting between Presidents Biden and Xi, both countries have agreed to enhance communication around the macroeconomy and cooperation on issues like climate and debt distress. But more needs to be done. We call on China to follow through on its promise to work with us on these issues – not as a favor to us, but out of our joint duty and obligation to the world. Tackling these issues together will also advance the national interests of both of our countries.  第三，我們尋求合作應對當今緊迫的全球挑戰。自去年拜登和習近平主席會晤以來，兩國同意加強圍繞宏觀經濟的溝通，以及在氣候和債務困境等問題上的合作。但還有更多工作要做。我們呼籲中國履行其在這些問題上與我們合作的承諾——不是為了幫助我們，而是出於我們對世界的共同責任和義務。共同解決這些問題也將促進我們兩國的國家利益。

I.  STATE OF OUR ECONOMIES  我們的經濟狀況

Let me begin by discussing the state of our economies.  讓我首先討論我們的經濟狀況。

In recent years, many have seen conflict between the United States and China as increasingly inevitable. This was driven by fears, shared by some Americans, that the United States was in decline. And that China would imminently leapfrog us as the world’s top economic power – leading to a clash between nations.  近年來，許多人認為中美之間的衝突越來越不可避免。這是由一些美國人對美國正在衰落的恐懼所驅動的。中國將很快超越我們成為世界頭號經濟大國——這將導致國家之間的衝突。

It’s important to know this: pronouncements of U.S. decline have been around for decades. But they have always been proven wrong. The United States has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to adapt and reinvent to face new challenges. This time will be no different – and the economic statistics show why.  了解這一點很重要：聲稱美國衰落已經存在了幾十年。但他們總是被證明是錯誤的。美國一再展示其適應和重塑以應對新挑戰的能力。這次也不例外——經濟統計數據說明了原因。

Since the end of the Cold War, the American economy has grown faster than most other advanced economies. And over the past two years, we have mounted the strongest post-pandemic recovery among major advanced economies. Our unemployment rate is near historic lows. Real GDP per capita has reached an all-time high, and we have experienced the strongest two-year growth in new businesses on record.  自冷戰結束以來，美國經濟的增長速度超過了大多數其他先進達經濟體。在過去兩年中，我們實現了主要先進達經濟體中最強勁的疫後復甦。我們的失業率接近歷史低點。實際人均國內生產總值達到歷史最高水平，我們也經歷了有記錄以來最強勁的兩年新業務增長。

This recovery is made possible by the strength of our economic fundamentals. Of course, this does not mean that our work is finished. Our top economic priority is to rein in inflation while protecting the economic gains of our recovery. A few weeks ago, the United States took decisive action to strengthen public confidence in the banking system after the failures of two regional institutions. The U.S. banking system remains sound, and we will take any necessary steps to ensure the United States continues to have the strongest and safest financial system in the world.  我們經濟基本面的實力使這種復甦成為可能。當然，這並不意味著我們的工作就完成了。我們的首要經濟任務是控制通貨膨脹，同時保護我們復甦的經濟收益。幾週前，在兩個地區性機構倒閉後，美國採取果斷行動加強公眾對銀行體系的信心。美國銀行體係依然健全，我們將採取任何必要措施確保美國繼續擁有世界上最強大和最安全的金融體系。

Over the past few decades, China has experienced an impressive economic rise. Between 1980 and 2010, China’s economy grew by an average of 10 percent per year. This led to a truly remarkable feat: the rise of hundreds of millions of people out of poverty. China’s rapid catch-up growth was fueled by its opening-up to global trade and pursuit of market reforms.  在過去的幾十年裡，中國經歷了令人矚目的經濟崛起。從 1980 年到 2010 年，中國經濟以平均每年 10% 的速度增長。這導致了一項真正了不起的壯舉：數億人擺脫了貧困。中國的快速追趕增長得益於其對全球貿易的開放和對市場改革的追求。

But like many countries, China today faces its share of near-term headwinds. This includes vulnerabilities in its property sector, high youth unemployment, and weak household consumption. In the longer term, China faces structural challenges. Its population is aging, and its workforce is already declining. And it has experienced a sharp reduction in productivity growth – amid its turn toward economic nationalism and policies that substantially increase the government’s intervention in the economy. None of these recent developments detract from China’s progress or the hard work and talent of the Chinese people. But China’s long-run growth rate seems likely to decline.  但與許多國家一樣，中國今天也面臨著短期不利因素。這包括其房地產行業的脆弱性、青年失業率居高不下以及家庭消費疲軟。長期來看，中國面臨結構性挑戰。它的人口正在老齡化，勞動力已經在減少。在轉向經濟民族主義和大幅增加政府對經濟干預的政策的過程中，它經歷了生產率增長的急劇下降。這些最近的事態先進展都不會減損中國的進步或中國人民的辛勤工作和才華。但中國的長期增長率似乎可能會下降。

Of course, an economy’s size is not the sole determinant of its strength. America is the largest economy in the world, but it also remains an unparalleled leader on a broad set of economic metrics – from wealth to technological innovation. U.S. GDP per capita is among the highest in the world and over five times as large as China’s. More than resources or geography, our country’s success can be attributed to our people, values, and institutions. American democracy, while not perfect, protects the free exchange of ideas and rule of law that is at the bedrock of sustainable growth. Our educational and scientific institutions lead the world. Our innovative culture is enriched by new immigrants, including those from China – enabling us to continue to generate world-class, cutting-edge products and industries.  當然，一個經濟體的規模並不是其實力的唯一決定因素。美國是世界上最大的經濟體，但在從財富到技術創新的廣泛經濟指標方面，它仍然是無與倫比的領導者。美國的人均 GDP 位居世界前列，是中國的五倍多。不僅僅是資源或地理，我們國家的成功可以歸功於我們的人民、價值觀和制度。美國民主雖然不完美，但保護了作為可持續增長基石的思想自由交流和法治。我們的教育和科學機構處於世界領先地位。包括來自中國在內的新移民豐富了我們的創新文化，使我們能夠繼續創造世界一流的尖端產品和產業。

Importantly, our economic power is amplified because we don’t stand alone. America values our close friends and partners in every region of the world, including the Indo-Pacific. In the 21st century, no country in isolation can create a strong and sustainable economy for its people. That’s why, under President Biden’s leadership, we’ve sought to rebuild and reinvest in our relationships with other countries.  重要的是，我們的經濟實力得到了增強，因為我們並非孤軍奮戰。美國珍視我們在世界每個地區的親密朋友和夥伴，包括印太地區。在 21 世紀，孤立發展的國家無法為其人民創造強大和可持續的經濟。這就是為什麼在拜登總統的領導下，我們尋求重建和重新投資我們與其他國家的關係。

All this to say: China’s economic growth need not be incompatible with U.S. economic leadership. The United States remains the most dynamic and prosperous economy in the world. We have no reason to fear healthy economic competition with any country.  綜上所述：中國的經濟增長非要與美國的經濟領導地位不相容不可。美國仍然是世界上最具活力和最繁榮的經濟體。我們沒有理由害怕與任何國家進行健康的經濟競爭。

II.  SECURING OUR NATIONAL SECURITY INTERESTS AND PROTECTING HUMAN RIGHTS  確保我們的國家安全利益和保護人權

There are many challenges before us. But the President and I believe that China and the United States can manage our economic relationship responsibly. We can work toward a future in which both countries share in and drive global economic progress. Whether we can reach this vision depends in large part on what both countries do in the next few years.  我們面前有許多挑戰。但總統和我相信，中國和美國能夠負責任地管理我們的經濟關係。我們可以努力實現兩國共同參與並推動全球經濟進步的未來。我們能否實現這一願景在很大程度上取決於兩國未來幾年的行動。 

Let me speak to our first objective: securing our national security and protecting human rights. These are areas where we will not compromise.  讓我談談我們的第一個目標：確保我們的國家安全和保護人權。這些是我們不會妥協的領域。

National Security  國家安全

As in all of our foreign relations, national security is of paramount importance in our relationship with China. For example, we have made clear that safeguarding certain technologies from the PRC’s military and security apparatus is of vital national interest.  與我們所有的外交關係一樣，國家安全在我們與中國的關係中至關重要。例如，我們已經明確表示，保護某些技術免受中國軍事和安全機構的侵害符合重大國家利益。

We have a broad suite of tools to achieve this aim. When necessary, we will take narrowly targeted actions. The U.S. government’s actions can come in the form of export controls. They can include additions to an entity list that restricts access by those that provide support to the People’s Liberation Army. The Treasury Department has sanctions authorities to address threats related to cybersecurity and China’s military-civil fusion. We also carefully review foreign investments in the United States for national security risks and take necessary actions to address any such risks. And we are considering a program to restrict certain U.S. outbound investments in specific sensitive technologies with significant national security implications.  我們有一套廣泛的工具來實現這一目標。必要時，我們將採取有針對性的行動。美國政府的行動可以採取出口管制的形式。它們可以包括對實體列表的補充，限制那些為人民解放軍提供支持的人的訪問。財政部擁有制裁權力，以應對與網絡安全和中國軍民融合相關的威脅。我們還仔細審查在美國的外國投資是否存在國家安全風險，並採取必要措施應對任何此類風險。我們正在考慮一項計劃，以限制某些美國對具有重大國家安全影響的特定敏感技術的對外投資。

As we take these actions, let me be clear: these national security actions are not designed for us to gain a competitive economic advantage, or stifle China’s economic and technological modernization. Even though these policies may have economic impacts, they are driven by straightforward national security considerations. We will not compromise on these concerns, even when they force trade-offs with our economic interests.   在我們採取這些行動時，讓我明確一點：這些國家安全行動不是為了我們獲得競爭性經濟優勢，也不是為了扼殺中國的經濟和技術現代化。儘管這些政策可能會產生經濟影響，但它們是由直接的國家安全考慮驅動的。我們不會在這些問題上妥協，即使它們迫使我們與經濟利益進行權衡。

There are key principles that guide our national security actions in the economic sphere.  有一些關鍵原則指導我們在經濟領域的國家安全行動。

First, these actions will be narrowly scoped and targeted to clear objectives. They will be calibrated to mitigate spillovers into other areas. Second, it is vital that these tools are easily understood and enforceable. And they must be readily adaptable when circumstances change. Third, when possible, we will engage and coordinate with our allies and partners in the design and execution of our policies.  首先，這些行動將縮小範圍並針對明確的目標。它們將被校準以減輕對其他領域的溢出效應。其次，這些工具必須易於理解和執行，這一點至關重要。當環境先進生變化時，它們必須能夠隨時適應。第三，在可能的情況下，我們將在政策的設計和執行中與我們的盟友和合作夥伴進行接觸和協調。

In addition, communication is essential to mitigating the risk of misunderstanding and unintended escalation. When we take national security actions, we will continue to outline our policy reasoning to other countries. We will listen and address concerns about unintended consequences.  此外，溝通對於降低誤解和意外升級的風險至關重要。當我們採取國家安全行動時，我們將繼續向其他國家概述我們的政策推理。我們將傾聽並解決對意外後果的擔憂。

Among our most pressing national security concerns is Russia’s illegal and unprovoked war against Ukraine. In my visit to Kyiv, I saw firsthand the brutality of Russia’s invasion. The Kremlin has bombed hospitals; destroyed cultural sites; attacked energy grids to cause widespread pain and suffering among civilians. Ending Russia’s war is a moral imperative. It will save many innocent lives. As I’ve said, it is also the single best thing we can do for the global economy. To help end Russia’s war, we have mounted the swiftest, most unified, and most ambitious multilateral sanctions regime in modern history. Our broad coalition of partners has also provided assistance to Ukraine so it can defend itself.  我們最緊迫的國家安全關切之一是俄羅斯對烏克蘭的非法和無端戰爭。在訪問基輔期間，我親眼目睹了俄羅斯入侵的殘酷。克里姆林宮轟炸了醫院；毀壞的文化遺址；攻擊能源網，在平民中造成廣泛的痛苦和苦難。結束俄羅斯的戰爭是道義上的當務之急。它將挽救許多無辜的生命。正如我所說，這也是我們能為全球經濟做的最好的事情。為了幫助結束俄羅斯的戰爭，我們建立了現代史上最迅速、最統一、最雄心勃勃的多邊制裁制度。我們廣泛的合作夥伴聯盟也向烏克蘭提供了援助，使其能夠自衛。

China’s “no limits” partnership and support for Russia is a worrisome indication that it is not serious about ending the war. It is essential that China and other countries do not provide Russia with material support or assistance with sanctions evasion. We will continue to make the position of the United States extremely clear to Beijing and companies in its jurisdiction. The consequences of any violations would be severe.  中國對俄羅斯的“無限制”夥伴關係和支持令人擔憂，表明它對結束戰爭並不認真。中國和其他國家不得向俄羅斯提供物質支持或協助逃避制裁。我們將繼續向北京及其管轄範圍內的公司表明美國的立場。任何違規行為的後果都將是嚴重的。

Human Rights  人權

Like national security, we will not compromise on the protection of human rights. This principle is foundational to how we engage with the world.  與國家安全一樣，我們不會在保護人權問題上妥協。這一原則是我們如何與世界打交道的基礎。

With our own eyes, the world has seen the PRC government escalate its repression at home. It has deployed technology to surveil and control the Chinese people – technology that it is now exporting to dozens of countries.  世界親眼目睹了中國政府在國內升級鎮壓。它已經部署了技術來監視和控制中國人民——它現在正在向數十個國家出口這些技術。

Human rights abuses violate the world’s moral conscience. They also violate the foundational principles of the United Nations – which virtually every country, including China, has signed onto. The United States will continue to use our tools to disrupt and deter human rights abuses wherever they occur around the globe.  侵犯人權違反了世界的道德良知。它們還違反了聯合國的基本原則——幾乎每個國家，包括中國，都簽署了這些原則。美國將繼續使用我們的工具來破壞和阻止在全球任何地方發生的侵犯人權行為。

In public and in private with Beijing, the United States has raised serious concerns about the PRC government’s abuses in Xinjiang, as well as in Hong Kong, Tibet, and other parts of China. And we have and will continue to take action. We have imposed sanctions on the PRC’s regional officials and companies for a range of human rights abuses – from torture to arbitrary detention. And we are restricting imports of goods produced with forced labor in Xinjiang.   在公開場合和私下場合，美國都對中國政府在新疆、香港、西藏和中國其他地區的侵權行為表示嚴重關切。我們已經並將繼續採取行動。我們已就一系列侵犯人權行為——從酷刑到任意拘留——對中國地方官員和公司實施制裁。我們正在限制進口新疆強迫勞動生產的商品。

Across these actions, we are working in concert with our allies – knowing that we are more effective when we all go at it together.  在這些行動中，我們與我們的盟友齊心協力——知道當我們齊心協力時，我們會更有效率。

III. TOWARDS HEALTHY ECONOMIC ENGAGEMENT  走向健康的經濟參與

As we protect our security interests and human rights values, we will also pursue our second objective: healthy economic engagement that benefits both countries.  在保護我們的安全利益和人權價值觀的同時，我們還將追求我們的第二個目標：使兩國受益的健康經濟參與。

Let’s start with the obvious. The U.S. and China are the two largest economies in the world. And we are deeply integrated with one another. Overall trade between our countries reached over $700 billion in 2021. We trade more with China than with any countries other than Canada and Mexico. American firms have extensive operations in China. Hundreds of Chinese firms are listed on our stock exchanges, which are part of the deepest and most liquid capital markets in the world. According to the Nature Index, the United States and China are each other’s most significant scientific collaborators. And China remains among the top sources for international students in the United States.  讓我們從顯而易見的開始。美國和中國是世界上最大的兩個經濟體。我們彼此深深地融合在一起。 2021 年，我們兩國之間的貿易總額超過 7000 億美元。我們與中國的貿易比加拿大和墨西哥以外的任何國家都多。美國公司在中國有廣泛的業務。數以百計的中國公司在我們的證券交易所上市，這些證券交易所是世界上最有深度和最具流動性的資本市場的一部分。根據自然指數，美國和中國是彼此最重要的科學合作者。中國仍然是美國國際學生的主要來源之一。

As I’ve said, the United States will assert ourselves when our vital interests are at stake. But we do not seek to “decouple” our economy from China’s. A full separation of our economies would be disastrous for both countries. It would be destabilizing for the rest of the world. Rather, we know that the health of the Chinese and U.S. economies is closely linked. A growing China that plays by the rules can be beneficial for the United States. For instance, it can mean rising demand for U.S. products and services and more dynamic U.S. industries.  正如我所說，當我們的切身利益受到威脅時，美國會維護自己的利益。但我們不尋求將我們的經濟與中國經濟“脫鉤”。我們經濟的完全分離對兩國來說都是災難性的。這將破壞世界其他地區的穩定。相反，我們知道中美經濟是正向息息相關的。一個遵守規則的成長中的中國可能對美國有利。例如，這可能意味著對美國產品和服務的需求增加以及美國工業更具活力。

Modern Supply-Side Investments at Home  投資國內的現代供應方

In April 2021, I delivered my first major international economic policy speech as Treasury Secretary. I said that “credibility abroad begins with credibility at home.” At a basic level, America’s ability to compete in the 21st century turns on the choices that Washington makes – not those that Beijing makes.  2021 年 4 月，我發表了我作為財政部長的第一次重大國際經濟政策演講。我說「國外的信譽始於國內的信譽」。在基本層面上，美國在 21 世紀的競爭能力取決於華盛頓做出的選擇，而不是北京做出的選擇。

Our economic strategy is centered around investing in ourselves – not suppressing or containing any other economy.  我們的經濟戰略以投資於我們自己為中心——而不是壓制或遏制任何其他經濟體。

In the two years since my speech, the United States has pursued an economic agenda that I call modern supply-side economics. Our policies are designed to expand the productive capacity of the American economy. That is, to raise the ceiling for what our economy can produce. To do so, President Biden has signed three historic bills into law. We’ve enacted the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law – our generation’s most ambitious effort to modernize roads, bridges, and ports and broaden access to high-speed Internet. We’ve mounted a historic expansion of American semiconductor manufacturing through the CHIPS and Science Act. And we are making our nation’s largest investment in clean energy with the Inflation Reduction Act. These actions have fortified U.S. strength in the industries of the future. And they are lifting our long-term economic outlook.  在我演講後的兩年裡，美國一直在推行我稱之為現代供給經濟學的經濟議程。我們的政策旨在擴大美國經濟的生產能力。也就是說，提高我們經濟的生產上限。為此，拜登總統簽署了三項具有歷史意義的法案，使其成為法律。我們已經頒布了《兩黨基礎設施法》——我們這一代人為實現道路、橋樑和港口現代化以及擴大高速互聯網接入所做的最雄心勃勃的努力。我們透過《CHIPS 和科學法案》實現了美國半導體製造業的歷史性擴張。我們正在透過《降低通貨膨脹法案》對清潔能源進行全國最大的投資。這些行動加強了美國在未來產業中的實力。他們正在提升我們的長期經濟前景。 

Our Vision and Conditions for Healthy Economic Competition  我們對良性經濟競爭的願景和條件

It’s important to understand the nature of the healthy economic competition that the United States is pursuing.  重要的是要了解美國所追求的健康經濟競爭的本質。

The United States does not seek competition that is winner-take-all. Instead, we believe that healthy economic competition with a fair set of rules can benefit both countries over time. A basic principle of economics is that sustained, repeated competition can lead to mutual improvement. Sports teams perform at a higher level when they consistently face top rivals. Firms produce better and cheaper goods when they compete for consumers. There is a world in which, as companies in the U.S. and China challenge each other, our economies can grow, standards of living can rise, and new innovations can bear fruit.  美國不追求贏者通吃的競爭。相反，我們相信，隨著時間的推移，具有一套公平規則的健康經濟競爭可以使兩國受益。經濟學的一個基本原理是，持續、重複的競爭可以導致共同進步。當運動隊始終面對頂級對手時，他們的表現會更高。企業在爭奪消費者時會生產更好、更便宜的商品。在這個世界上，隨著美國和中國的公司相互挑戰，我們的經濟可以增長，生活水平可以提高，新的創新可以結出碩果。

For example, China has benefited from American inventions like the personal computer and the MRI. In the same way, I believe that new scientific and medical developments from China can benefit Americans and the world – and spur us to undertake even more leading-edge research and innovation.  例如，中國受益於個人電腦和核磁共振成像等美國先進發明。同樣，我相信來自中國的新科學和醫學先進發展可以造福美國人和世界——並激勵我們進行更多的前沿研究和創新。

But this type of healthy competition is only sustainable if it is fair to both sides.  但這種良性競爭只有在對雙方都公平的情況下才能持續。

China has long used government support to help its firms gain market share at the expense of foreign competitors. But in recent years, its industrial policy has become more ambitious and complex. China has expanded support for its state-owned enterprises and domestic private firms to dominate foreign competitors. It has done so in traditional industrial sectors as well as emerging technologies. This strategy has been coupled with aggressive efforts to acquire new technological know-how and intellectual property – including through IP theft and other illicit means.  長期以來，中國一直利用政府支持幫助其企業以犧牲外國競爭對手為代價獲得市佔率。但近年來，其產業政策變得更加雄心勃勃和複雜。中國增加對國有企業和國內私營企業的支持力度，以戰勝外國競爭對手。它在傳統工業部門和新興技術領域都這樣做了。這一戰略與獲取新技術知識和知識產權的積極努力相結合——包括透過知識產權盜竊和其他非法手段。

Government intervention can be justified in certan circumstances – such as to correct specific market failures. But China’s government employs non-market tools at a much larger scale and breadth than other major economies. China also imposes numerous barriers to market access for American firms that do not exist for Chinese businesses in the United States. For example, Beijing has often required foreign firms to transfer proprietary technology to domestic ones – simply to do business in China. These limits on access to the Chinese market tilt the playing field in favor of Chinese firms. Further, we are concerned about a recent uptick in coercive actions targeting U.S. firms, which comes at the same moment that China states that it is re-opening for foreign investment.  在某些情況下，政府干預是合理的——例如糾正特定的市場失靈。但與其他主要經濟體相比，中國政府在更大範圍和廣度上使用非市場工具。中國還對美國公司的市場准入設置了許多壁壘，而在美國的中國企業並不存在這些壁壘。例如，北京經常要求外國公司將專有技術轉讓給國內公司——僅僅是為了在中國開展業務。這些對進入中國市場的限制使競爭環境向有利於中國公司的方向傾斜。此外，我們擔心最近針對美國公司的脅迫行動有所增加，而這恰逢中國表示將重新開放外國投資。 

The actions of China’s government have had dramatic implications for the location of global manufacturing activity. And they have harmed workers and firms in the U.S. and around the world.  中國政府的行動對全球製造業活動的定位產生了巨大影響。他們傷害了美國和世界各地的工人和公司。

In certain cases, China has also exploited its economic power to retaliate against and coerce vulnerable trading partners. For example, it has used boycotts of specific goods as punishment in response to diplomatic actions by other countries. China’s pretext for these actions is often commercial. But its real goal is to impose consequences on choices that it dislikes – and to force sovereign governments to capitulate to its political demands.  在某些情況下，中國還利用其經濟實力對脆弱的貿易夥伴進行報復和脅迫。例如，它以抵制特定商品作為對其他國家外交行動的回應。中國採取這些行動的藉口通常是商業性的。但它的真正目標是對它不喜歡的選擇施加後果——並迫使主權政府屈服於它的政治要求。 

The irony is that the open, fair, and rules-based global economy that the United States is calling for is the very same international order that helped make China’s economic transformation possible. And the inefficiencies and vulnerabilities generated by China’s unfair practices may end up hurting its own growth.  具有諷刺意味的是，美國所呼籲的開放、公平和基於規則的全球經濟正是幫助中國經濟轉型成為可能的國際秩序。中國的不公平做法造成的低效率和脆弱性最終可能會損害其自身的增長。

China’s senior officials have repeatedly spoken about the importance of allowing markets to play a “decisive role” in resource allocation – including in a speech just earlier this year. It would be better for China and the world if Beijing were to actually shift policies in these directions and meet its own stated reform ambitions.  中國高級官員多次談到讓市場在資源配置中發揮「決定性作用」的重要性——包括在今年早些時候的一次演講中。如果北京真正朝這些方向轉變政策並實現其既定的改革雄心，對中國和世界都會更好。

As we press China on its unfair economic practices, we will continue to take coordinated actions with our allies and partners in response. A top priority for President Biden is the resilience of our critical supply chains. In certain sectors, China’s unfair economic practices have resulted in the over-concentration of the production of critical goods inside China. Under President Biden’s leadership, we are not only investing in manufacturing at home. We are also pursuing a strategy called “friendshoring” that is aimed at mitigating vulnerabilities that can lead to supply disruptions. We are creating redundancies in our critical supply chains with the large number of trading partners that we can count on.  當我們就中國的不公平經濟行為向中國施壓時，我們將繼續與我們的盟友和合作夥伴採取協調一致的行動予以回應。拜登總統的首要任務是我們關鍵供應鏈的韌性。在某些領域，中國不公平的經濟行為導致關鍵產品的生產過度集中在中國境內。在拜登總統的領導下，我們不僅在國內投資製造業。我們還在推行一項名為「朋友外包」的戰略，旨在減輕可能導致供應中斷的漏洞。我們正在與我們可以依賴的大量貿易夥伴一起在我們的關鍵供應鏈中製造備援系統。

Of course, we know that the best way for us to strengthen the global economic order is to show the world that it works. Our investments in the international financial institutions and efforts to deepen our ties around the world are enabling more people to benefit from the international economic system. We are also accelerating our commitments in the developing world. For example, the United States and the rest of the G7 aim to mobilize $600 billion in high-quality infrastructure investments by 2027. Our focus is on projects that generate positive economic returns and foster sustainable debt for these countries. And when the international system needs updating, we will not hesitate to do so. The United States is working with shareholders to evolve the multilateral development banks to better combat today’s pressing global challenges – like climate change, pandemics, and fragility and conflict.  當然，我們知道加強全球經濟秩序的最佳方式是向世界展示它是有效的。我們對國際金融機構的投資以及深化我們與世界各國聯繫的努力正在使更多的人從國際經濟體系中受益。我們也在加速履行對發展中世界的承諾。例如，美國和其他七國集團的目標是到 2027 年動員 6000 億美元用於高質量的基礎設施投資。我們的重點是為這些國家產生積極的經濟回報和促進可持續債務的項目。當國際體系需要更新時，我們會毫不猶豫地這樣做。美國正在與各方合作，發展多邊開先進銀行，以更好地應對當今緊迫的全球挑戰——如氣候變化、流行病、脆弱性和衝突。

LEADING TOGETHER ON GLOBAL CHALLENGES  共同應對全球挑戰

As we set the terms of our economic engagement with China, we will also pursue our third objective: cooperation on major global challenges. It is important that we make progress on global issues regardless of our other disagreements. That’s what the world needs from its two largest economies.  在制訂與中國的經濟交往條款時，我們還將追求第三個目標：合作應對重大全球挑戰。重要的是，無論我們是否存在其他分歧，我們都要在全球問題上取得進展。這就是世界對其最大的兩個經濟體的需求。

As a foundation, we must continue to develop steady lines of communication between our countries for macroeconomic and financial cooperation. Economic developments in the United States and China can quickly ripple through global financial markets and the broader economy. We must maintain a robust exchange of views about how we are responding to economic shocks. My conversations with Vice Premier Liu He and China’s other senior officials have been a good start. I hope to build on them with my new counterpart.   作為基礎，我們必須繼續在我們各國之間建立穩定的宏觀經濟和金融合作溝通管道。美國和中國的經濟先進展可以迅速波及全球金融市場和更廣泛的經濟。我們必須就我們如何應對經濟衝擊保持積極的意見交流。我與劉鶴副總理和中國其他高級官員的談話是一個良好的開端。我希望與我的新對手一起在這些基礎上再接再厲。

Beyond the macroeconomy, there are two specific global priorities I’d like to highlight today: debt overhang and climate change. These issues can best be managed if both countries work together, and in concert with our allies and partners.  除了宏觀經濟，今天我還想強調兩個具體的全球優先事項：債務積壓和氣候變化。如果兩國共同努力，並與我們的盟友和合作夥伴保持一致，就可以最好地解決這些問題。

Debt Overhang  債務負擔

First, we must work together to help emerging markets and developing countries facing debt distress. The issue of global debt is not a bilateral issue between China and the United States. It is about responsible global leadership. China’s status as the world’s largest official bilateral creditor imposes on it the same inescapable set of responsibilities as those on other official bilateral creditors when debt cannot be fully repaid.  一是共同幫助面臨債務困境的新興市場和發展中國家。全球債務問題不是中美之間的雙邊問題。它關乎負責任的全球領導力。中國作為世界上最大的官方雙邊債權人的地位，在無法完全償還債務時，與其他官方雙邊債權人一樣，負擔一系列不可避免的責任。

China’s participation is essential to meaningful debt relief. But for too long, it has not moved in a comprehensive and timely manner. It has served as a roadblock to necessary action.  中國的參與對於有意義的債務減免至關重要。但是時間太久了，它並沒有全面及時地動起來。它已成為採取必要行動的障礙。

Earlier this year, I felt the urgency of debt relief firsthand during my visit to Zambia. Government and business leaders spoke to me about how Zambia’s debt overhang has held back critical public and private investment and depressed economic development. But Zambia is not the only country in this situation. The IMF estimates that more than half of low-income countries are close to or already in debt distress.  今年稍早，我在訪問尚比亞期間親身感受到了債務減免的緊迫性。政府和商界領袖向我講述了尚比亞的債務積壓如何阻礙了關鍵的公共和私人投資以及抑制經濟先進展。但尚比亞並不是唯一處於這種情況的國家。國際貨幣基金組織估計，超過一半的低收入國家接近或已經陷入債務困境。

The United States has had extensive discussions with Beijing about the need for speedy debt treatment. We welcome China’s recent provision of specific and credible financing assurances for Sri Lanka, which has enabled the IMF to move forward with a program. But now, all of Sri Lanka’s bilateral creditors – including China – will need to deliver debt treatments in line with their assurances in a timely manner. We continue to urge China’s full participation to provide debt treatments in other cases in line with IMF parameters. This includes urgent cases like Zambia and Ghana.  美國已與北京就加快債務處理的必要性進行了廣泛討論。我們歡迎中國最近為斯里蘭卡提供具體和可信的融資保證，這使國際貨幣基金組織能夠推進一項計劃。但現在，包括中國在內的斯里蘭卡所有雙邊債權人都需要及時提供符合其承諾的債務處理。我們繼續敦促中國充分參與，根據國際貨幣基金組織的參數，在其他情況下提供債務處理。這包括尚比亞和加納等緊急情況。

Prompt action on debt is in China’s interest. Delaying needed debt treatments raises the costs both for borrowers and creditors. It worsens borrowers’ economic fundamentals and increases the amount of debt relief they will eventually need.  在債務問題上迅速採取行動符合中國的利益。延遲必要的債務處理會增加借款人和債權人的成本。它惡化了借款人的經濟基本面，並增加了他們最終需要的債務減免額度。

More broadly, there is considerable room for improvement in the international debt restructuring process. With the IMF and World Bank, we are working with a range of stakeholders to improve the Common Framework process for low-income countries and the debt treatment process more generally. As I heard from Zambian officials, solving these issues is a true test of multilateralism.  更廣泛地說，國際債務重組進程還有相當大的改進空間。我們與國際貨幣基金組織和世界銀行一起，與一系列利益相關者合作，改進低收入國家的共同框架流程和更普遍的債務處理流程。正如我從尚比亞官員那裡聽到的那樣，解決這些問題是對多邊主義的真正考驗。

Climate Change  氣候變化

Second, we must work together to tackle longstanding global challenges that threaten us all. Climate change is at the top of that list. History shows us what our two countries can do: moments of climate cooperation between the United States and China have made global breakthroughs possible, including the Paris Agreement.   其次，我們必須共同努力應對威脅我們所有人的長期全球挑戰。氣候變化位居榜首。歷史向我們展示了我們兩國可以做什麼：美國和中國之間的氣候合作時刻使全球突破成為可能，包括《巴黎協定》。

We have a joint responsibility to lead the way. China is the largest emitter of greenhouse gases, followed by the United States. The U.S. will do its part. Over the past year, the United States has taken the boldest domestic climate action in our nation’s history. Our investments put us on track to meet U.S. commitments under the Paris Agreement and achieve net-zero by 2050. And they will have positive spillovers for the world, including through reductions in the costs of clean energy technologies. We are also working abroad to help countries make a just energy transition to reduce their carbon emissions. These transitions will also help expand energy access and provide economic opportunity for impacted communities and workers.  我們負有領導的共同責任。中國是最大的溫室氣體排放國，其次是美國。美國將盡自己的一份力量。在過去的一年裡，美國採取了我國歷史上最大膽的國內氣候行動。我們的投資使我們走上了實現美國在《巴黎協定》下的承諾並到 2050 年實現淨零排放的軌道。它們將對世界產生積極的溢出效應，包括透過降低清潔能源技術的成本。我們還在國外開展工作，幫助各國實現公正的能源轉型，以減少碳排放。這些轉變還將有助於擴大能源獲取範圍，並為受影響的社區和工人提供經濟機會。

We expect China to deliver on its commitments in our Joint Glasgow Declaration. This includes meeting mitigation targets and ending overseas financing of unabated coal-fired power plants. China should also support developing countries and emerging markets in their clean energy transitions. Further, we look forward to working together to boost private capital flows as co-chairs of the G20 working group on sustainable finance.  我們期待中國兌現其在〈格拉斯哥聯合聲明〉中的承諾。這包括實現減排目標和結束對未減排的燃煤電廠的海外融資。中國還應支持發展中國家和新興市場的清潔能源轉型。此外，作為 G20 可持續金融工作組的聯合主席，我們期待共同努力促進私人資本流動。  

We stand ready to work with China on the existential challenge of climate change. And we urge China to seriously engage with us and deliver on its commitments. The stakes are too high not to.  我們隨時準備與中國合作應對氣候變化帶來的生存挑戰。我們敦促中國認真地與我們接觸並履行其承諾。賭注太高了。

CONCLUSION  結論

Some see the relationship between the U.S. and China through the frame of great power conflict: a zero-sum, bilateral contest where one must fall for the other to rise.  一些人透過大國衝突的框架來看待美中關係：一場零和的雙邊競賽，一方必須倒下，另一方才能崛起。

President Biden and I don’t see it that way. We believe that the world is big enough for both of us. China and the United States can and need to find a way to live together and share in global prosperity. We can acknowledge our differences, defend our own interests, and compete fairly. Indeed, the United States will continue to proceed with confidence about the fundamental strength of the American economy and the skill of American workers. But as President Biden said, “we share a responsibility…to prevent competition from becoming anything ever near conflict.”  拜登總統和我不這麼看。我們相信世界對我們倆來說都足夠大。中國和美國能夠而且需要找到共同生活並分享全球繁榮的方式。我們可以承認我們的差異，捍衛自己的利益，公平競爭。事實上，美國將繼續對美國經濟的基本實力和美國工人的技能充滿信心。但正如拜登總統所說，「我們都有責任……防止競爭演變成近乎衝突的任何事物。」

Negotiating the contours of engagement between great powers is difficult. And the United States will never compromise on our security or principles. But we can find a way forward if China is also willing to play its part.  大國之間的協商接觸方式和範圍是很困難的。美國絕不會在我們的安全或原則上妥協。但如果中國也願意發揮自己的作用，我們就能找到前進的道路。

That’s why I plan to travel to China at the appropriate time. My hope is to engage in an important and substantive dialogue on economic issues with my new Chinese government counterpart following the political transition in Beijing. I believe this dialogue can help lay the groundwork for responsibly managing our bilateral relationship and cooperating on areas of shared challenge to our nations and the world.   這就是為什麼我計劃在適當的時候去中國旅行。我希望在北京的政治過渡之後與我的新中國政府副手就經濟問題進行重要和實質性的對話。我相信這次對話有助於為負責任地管理我們的雙邊關係以及在我們國家和世界面臨共同挑戰的領域開展合作奠定基礎。

As you know, I am an economist by trade. Economics is popularly seen as a field concerning the structure and performance of entire economies. But at its most granular level, economics is much more foundational. It’s the study of the choices that people make. Specifically, how people make choices under specific circumstances – of scarcity, of risk, and sometimes, of stress. And how choices by individuals and firms affect one another, and how they add up to a national or global picture.  如大家所知，我是一名貿易經濟學家。經濟學通常被視為一個涉及整個經濟體結構和表現的領域。但在最細的層面上，經濟學更為基礎。這是對人們做出的選擇的研究。具體來說，人們如何在特定情況下做出選擇——稀缺、風險，有時還有壓力。以及個人和公司的選擇如何相互影響，以及它們如何構成國家或全球圖景。

In other words, an economy is just an aggregate of choices that people make.  換句話說，經濟只是人們做出的選擇的總和。 

The relationship between the United States and China is the same. Our path is not preordained, and it is not destined to be costly. The trajectory of this relationship is the aggregate of choices that all of us in these two great powers make over time – including when to cooperate, when to compete, and when to recognize that even amid our competition, we have a shared interest in peace and prosperity.  美國和中國的關係是一樣的。我們的道路不是注定的，也不是注定要付出代價的。這種關係的軌跡是我們這兩個大國所有人隨著時間的推移做出的選擇的總和——包括何時合作，何時競爭，以及何時認識到即使在我們的競爭中，我們也有和平與和平的共同利益繁榮。

The United States believes that responsible economic relations between the U.S. and China is in the self-interest of our peoples. It is the hope and expectation of the world. And at this moment of challenge, I believe it must be the choice that both countries – the United States and China – make.  美國認為，美中之間負責任的經濟關係符合我們兩國人民的自身利益。這是世界的希望和期待。在這個充滿挑戰的時刻，我相信這一定是美國和中國這兩個國家做出的選擇。

Thank you. 謝謝大家。

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[1]  當開始回顧歷史，表示政策要轉彎