盧沙野的發言是描述一個完整的中共帝國 Lu's message is depicting a picture of the CCP Empire

【縛雞之論】英文拷到 G / D 找中文翻譯
The author James Palmer, a deputy editor at Foreign Policy, pointed out a subtle significance of Lu Shaye’s interview that is common in the CCP’s leadership: they will do whatever they can to prevent the break-up of the Chinese empire, just as the USSR experienced in 1990.
This explains why Beijing does not recognize the legitimacy of the independent states that emerged after the dissolution of the USSR, including Russia, which we must point out. Beijing recognized the USSR as a whole, not as a group of states such as Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan, etc. Lu’s acknowledgment of the post-Cold War world exposed the mindset of the CCP leadership.
The solid proof is that Lu is not the first time to reveal such a mindset, and although Lu’s comments were quickly denied by Beijing, he still received a promotion every time.
If such a mindset exists, Beijing, not just Xi, will view any criticism from Western countries as a plot to overthrow CCP rule. And that paranoid psychology cannot be cured.

《外交政策》副主編James Palmer指出了盧沙野採訪的一個微妙意義，這在中共領導層中很常見：他們將盡其所能阻止中華帝國的解體，就像蘇聯在1990年所經歷的那樣。
這就解釋了為什麼北京不承認蘇聯解體後出現的獨立國家的合法性，包括我們必須指出的俄羅斯。北京承認整個蘇聯，而不是俄羅斯、烏克蘭、白俄羅斯、哈薩克等國家集團。盧對冷戰後世界的承認暴露了中共領導層的心態。
確鑿的證據是，盧不是第一次透露出這種心態，雖然盧的言論很快被北京否認，但他每次都還是高升了。
如果存在這種心態，北京，而不僅僅是習近平，都會將西方國家的任何批評視為推翻中共統治的陰謀。而且這種偏執的心理是無法治癒的。

Chinese Diplomat Goes Off Message  中國外交官言論偏離官方    Foreign Policy 20230425

This week, China is dealing with the diplomatic fallout from ill-judged comments made by its ambassador to France, Lu Shaye. During a TV interview last Friday, Lu seemed to question the sovereignty of former Soviet states such as Ukraine. “Even these ex-Soviet countries don’t have an effective status in international law because there was no international agreement to materialize their status as sovereign countries,” he said. The remark prompted immediate outrage, especially among the Baltic states. 本周，中國正在處理其駐法國大使盧沙野（Lu Shaye）判斷失誤言論已經對中國持懷疑態度的外交後果。在上週五的一次電視採訪中，盧似乎質疑烏克蘭等前蘇聯國家的主權。“即使是這些前蘇聯國家在國際法中也沒有有效的地位，因為沒有國際協定來實現他們作為主權國家的地位，”他說。這句話立即引起了憤怒，特別是在波羅的海國家中。

European politicians already skeptical of China seized on Lu’s comments. Despite French President Emmanuel Macron’s recent red-carpet visit to Beijing, China’s relationship with much of Europe has declined since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic—and even more so since Russia invaded Ukraine last year. A stalled trade deal between China and the European Union now appears dead. Beijing’s reputation has especially suffered in Eastern Europe, thanks in part to its attempt to bully Lithuania over its relations with Taiwan.歐洲政界人士抓住了盧的言論。儘管法國總統埃馬紐埃爾·馬克龍最近對北京進行了紅地毯訪問，但自COVID-19大流行開始以來，中國與歐洲大部分地區的關係有所下降——自去年俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭以來更是如此。中國和歐盟之間陷入僵局的貿易協定現在似乎已經死了。北京的聲譽在東歐尤其受損，部分原因是它試圖在與台灣的關係上欺負立陶宛。

Yet Lu’s remarks diverge from China’s official position: Beijing has never questioned the legitimacy of former Soviet states and has enjoyed relatively good relationships with them for much of the last three decades. When asked about Lu’s comments on Monday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said, “China respects the status of the former Soviet republics as sovereign countries after the Soviet Union’s dissolution.” The Chinese Embassy in Paris removed the online transcript of Lu’s comments and said he spoke in a private capacity. 然而，盧的言論與中國的官方立場不同：北京從未質疑過前蘇聯國家的合法性，並且在過去三十年的大部分時間里與他們保持著相對良好的關係。當被問及盧周一的評論時，中國外交部發言人毛寧說，“中國尊重前蘇聯加盟共和國在蘇聯解體後作為主權國家的地位。中國駐巴黎大使館刪除了盧的線上評論記錄，並表示他以私人身份發言。

So, how did Lu make such a slip-up? The ambassador has a record of aggressive nationalist comments. Last year, Lu referred to the need to subject the Taiwanese public to “reeducation” after a hypothetical Chinese conquest; he also accused “foreign forces” of being behind the mass protests that eventually helped end China’s strict zero-COVID policy. In 2019, while he was ambassador to Canada, Lu accused Canada of “white supremacy” for detaining Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou on a U.S. extradition request. 那麼，盧是怎麼做出這樣的失誤呢？大使有激進的民族主義言論的記錄。去年，盧提到在假設的中國征服之後，需要對臺灣公眾進行「再教育」；他還指責 「外國勢力」 是大規模抗議活動的幕後黑手，這些抗議活動最終幫助結束了中國嚴格的COVID清零政策。2019年，在擔任駐加拿大大使期間，盧指責加拿大“白人至上”，因為他應美國引渡請求拘留了華為高管孟晚舟。

Lu has openly boasted about his so-called wolf warrior status, and so far the aggressive posturing seems to have boosted his career. After all, he landed the cushy post in France. But unlike some instances of wolf warrior diplomacy, Lu’s recent statement doesn’t align with any Chinese goal. He may have intended to say something more moderate, such as that post-Soviet territorial disputes are not fully resolved. 盧公開吹噓他所謂的戰狼身份，到目前為止，這種咄咄逼人的姿態似乎推動了他的職業生涯。畢竟，他在法國獲得了輕鬆的職位。但與一些戰狼外交不同，盧最近的聲明與中國的任何目標都不一致。他可能打算說一些更溫和的話，比如後蘇聯時期的領土爭端沒有完全解決。 

Russia’s war in Ukraine puts China in an awkward position. Beijing supports Moscow both because of their long-standing near-alliance and shared anti-Western sentiment, while its diplomatic language has stressed sovereignty and self-determination. However, China defines sovereignty on its own terms; its conception has never included Taiwan or Tibet. (It also sees the dissolution of the Soviet Union as a cautionary tale.) It’s possible some Chinese Communist Party (CCP) officials see the sovereignty of post-Soviet states as not fully determined—an idea that Lu could have repeated. 俄羅斯在烏克蘭的戰爭使中國處於尷尬的境地。北京支援莫斯科，因為他們長期的近乎同盟和共同的反西方情緒，而其外交語言強調主權和自決。然而，中國根據自己的條件定義主權；它的概念從未包括臺灣或西藏。（它還將蘇聯的解體視為一個警示故事。一些中國共產黨（CCP）官員可能認為後蘇聯國家的主權尚未完全確定——盧可能在重複表達這個想法。）

Ultimately, leaders in Beijing—and particularly Chinese President Xi Jinping—remain responsible for appointing figures such as Lu to key positions. (Last week, China faced backlash after its ambassador to the Philippines implied that Filipino workers in Taiwan might be at risk amid rising tensions.) Although the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs seemed to disavow Lu’s statement, it hasn’t apologized—and it almost never does to foreigners. 歸根結底，北京的領導人——尤其是中國國家主席習近平——仍然應任命盧這樣的人物擔任關鍵職位負責。（上周，中國駐菲律賓大使暗示，在臺灣的菲律賓工人可能面臨緊張局勢加劇的風險後，中國面臨強烈反對。儘管中國外交部似乎否認了盧的聲明，但它並沒有道歉——而且幾乎從不向外國人道歉。

Beijing may be institutionally incapable of fully walking back the comments since it could be seen as humiliating and would likely require approval from the very top. That’s a big problem when the government is sending wolf warriors such as Lu out to howl. 北京在制度上可能無法完全收回這些評論，因為它可能被視為羞辱，並且可能需要最高層的批准。當政府派像盧這樣的戰狼出去嚎叫時，這是一個大問題。