標準時鐘：東拉西扯，不幹正事
【縛雞之論】英文拷到 G / D 找中文翻譯
藉由The
Telegraph的報導，就能有效穿透大內宣所炮製出來的時鐘神話。
總之，就是不願瞭解戰場，不知身處何處，又拖拖拉拉，加上資源準備不足。
Dr Chase Nelson
Taiwan, hailed for its gold standard Covid strategy, now faces ‘potential
for lots of deaths’ Telegraph 20220506
As the ‘zero Covid’ stalwart flinches
at China's strict omicron lockdowns, has it done enough to follow Singapore and
South Korea's example?
Within a few
short weeks, Taiwan has been catapulted from a few hundred Covid-19 cases a day
to tens of thousands. The island now faces the daunting prospect of a vertical trajectory
of infections that could trigger unprecedented death
rates by this summer. 在短短幾週內，台灣已從每天數百例 Covid-19 病例猛增至數萬例。該島現在面臨感染軌跡垂直上升的可怕前景，這可能會在今年夏天引發前所未有的死亡率。
Anxious city
dwellers are trying to carry on as normal, but restaurants, gyms and schools are
emptying out as people try to adjust to a dramatic shift from the first two years
of the pandemic, when the country was seen as one of the world's few safe havens.
Taiwan successfully
fought back every new outbreak and curbed infections and deaths with
a “zero Covid” strategy that, like neighbouring China, relied on strict border controls and lengthy quarantine on
arrival. 和中國一樣，台灣依靠嚴格的邊境控制和抵達時的長時間隔離，透過清零戰略成功地抵抗每一次新的爆發並遏制了感染和死亡。
But now in the face of unprecedented surges driven by the highly contagious omicron variant, democratic Taiwan is diverging from authoritarian China. 面對由高度傳染性的omicron變種驅動的前所未有的激增案例，民主的台灣正在與威權的中國分道揚鑣。
While Beijing
is doubling down on its stringent “zero Covid” approach, Taiwan is shifting away
from a suppression strategy. This week, Taipei also condemned China’s stringent
lockdowns as “cruel” – jolting video from the modern city of Shanghai has revealed
hungry residents appealing for food, and citizens in Hebei province being bolted
into their homes.
Rather than emulating China, Taiwan has its sights on South Korea and Singapore – which have successfully reduced restrictions while keeping death rates low. 與其效仿中國，台灣將目光投向韓國和新加坡 But with little natural immunity and suboptimal vaccination rates among the vulnerable, experts predict Taiwan could face a rocky ride. 由於自然免疫力低下，弱勢群體的疫苗接種率不高，專家預測台灣可能會面臨坎坷的局面。
On Thursday
it breached 30,000 cases for the first time, and with
an average daily increase of 15 to 20 per cent, experts like Dr Chase Nelson,
a Taipei-based computational biologist, predict Taiwan
could peak at around 200,000 infections a day.
平均每天增加15％至20％，像台北的計算生物學家Chase Nelson博士這樣的專家預測，台灣的感染率可能達到每天約20萬的峰值。
Only 15 per
cent of the entire 23.5 million population remain unvaccinated, but one of Taiwan’s
biggest challenges lies in the alarming statistic that 21 per cent of
over-75s have resisted the jab – many of them over fears about side-effects.
That number
has barely shifted since the sudden turnaround from a few dozen cases a day to tens
of thousands within a few weeks.
“The outbreak
did give a kick in the pants to some people who had been waiting but it doesn’t
seem to be that substantial,” said Mr Nelson, who estimates that if the vaccine pick-up remains the same, it will take five
months for an additional 10 per cent of over-75s to get just one dose. 如果疫苗接種量保持不變，那麼另外10%的75歲以上的人將需要5個月的時間才能打一劑疫苗。
“A fraction are just not going to do it. It’s almost like they
would take a chance on something they can’t control the timing of, which is their
infection,” he added. 有一小部分人就是不打算這麼做。這幾乎就像他們會在他們無法控制時間的事情上冒險，這就是他們的感染。
The numbers could push Taiwan closer to Hong Kong, which has seen
more than 9,300 – largely elderly – deaths for its 7.3m population, rather than
nearby South Korea, which recently weathered more than 600,000 cases a day by getting
booster shots to more than 90 per cent of those aged 60 and above.
While fatalities
have so far remained low, experts warn that true
figures are being masked by a time lag of two to four weeks. 雖然到目前為止死亡人數仍然很低，但專家警告說，真實的數字被兩到四個星期的時間差所掩蓋。
An alarming
analysis last month in Taiwan’s Commonwealth Magazine estimated that some 22,000 senior citizens could die if vaccination rates
did not pick up, basing its calculation on Hong Kong’s fatality rates.
For two years, Taiwan was hailed globally as a gold standard for its handling of the pandemic,
keeping deaths below 1,000 and its economy afloat, but flaws in the country’s exit strategy risked an “underwhelming finish,”
warned Mr Nelson.
“I think it
is doing some things right and some things poorly,” he said. 我認為它做了一些正確的事情，也做了一些差勁的事情。 “I do think it is wise to recognise that maintaining absolutely zero
Covid with something as contagious as omicron is not a long-term viable strategy,
as is evidenced by Shanghai.”
‘Hospitals
beginning to be overwhelmed’
With vaccinations
fresh, and plateauing, now was a “well-calculated” time to drop restrictions during
an outbreak of the milder omicron variant, he said. This week, Taiwan’s health ministry
dropped quarantine on arrival to seven days.
“At the same
time, Taiwan has really done this quickly and they
missed an opportunity to say what they were planning and to prepare people for it,”
Mr Nelson added. 台灣確實做得很快，他們錯過了一個機會，沒有說出他們的計畫，沒有讓人們做好準備。 “They have instead had this feeling of making
up guidelines as they go along… There
is a lot of confusion, understandably, and I
don’t think that has been a wise move in terms of their strategy.” 他們反而有一種邊走邊編準則的感覺......有很多混亂，這是可以理解的，我認為就他們的戰略而言，這不是一個明智之舉。
Taiwan’s testing capacity, in particular, has been pushed to its limits, with long queues
snaking round pharmacies to obtain scarce home kits,
and lengthy waits for PCR tests. 尤其是台灣的檢測能力已被推到了極限，為了獲得稀缺的家用試劑盒而在藥店周圍排起了長隊，而且等待PCR檢測的時間很長。
“Testing capacity is being outstripped. Hospitals are
beginning to show signs of being overwhelmed
to some extent. I think that means the potential for a lot of deaths unfortunately,”
said Mr Nelson. 篩檢能力正在被超越。醫院在某種程度上開始顯示出不堪重負的跡象。我認為這意味著可能會有很多人不幸死亡。
Professor
Chan Chang-chuan from National Taiwan University College of Public Health pointed
to two major shortfalls as Taiwan sought to adjust to Covid-19 as endemic. 在台灣尋求調整到Covid-19的地區性流行時，我們發現了兩個主要的不足之處。
One had been
the failure to order enough Pfizer vaccines for the under-12s, he said. 一個是未能為12歲以下兒童訂購足夠的輝瑞公司疫苗
Last month,
Taiwan approved the use of the Moderna vaccine
for children aged 6-11, but while this mirrors similar moves in the UK and EU, the hesitancy of the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA)
to greenlight the shot for children has left Taiwanese parents uncertain. 台灣批准6-11歲的兒童使用Moderna疫苗，儘管這反映了英國和歐盟的類似舉措，美國食品和藥物管理局（FDA）對兒童注射疫苗的猶豫不決讓台灣父母感到不確定。
Secondly,
unlike Singapore, the authorities had not empowered
the primary healthcare system or prepared the public enough
to self-isolate and treat themselves at home. 當局沒有賦予基層醫療系統權力，也沒有讓公眾做好足夠的準備在家裡自我隔離和自我治療。
In recent
weeks, the country was shaken by the deaths of a two-year-old boy and 20-year-old
woman, who had a severe reaction to the virus and were diagnosed too late.
Singapore,
which began the shift already last summer to
treat Covid-19 like the flu, did much groundwork ahead of time and had not experienced
any deaths among children, said Prof Chan.
新加坡在去年夏天就已經開始轉變，像對待流感一樣對待Covid-19，提前做了很多基礎工作，沒有出現任何兒童死亡。
“They built
a recovery from home programme step by step and gave out instructions to give people
who are staying at home proper and timely medical advice, like telemedicine, phone
calls, consultations,” he said. 他們逐步建立了一個在家康復方案，並發出指示，給留在家裡的人提供適當和及時的醫療建議，如遠端醫療、電話、諮詢。
“People were
educated to be careful even if at home. They have the information,” he added. “By
doing this they reserved critical care capacity so the most needy can be treated.” 人們被教導，即使在家裡也要小心。他們掌握了相關訊息。這樣做，他們保留了重症監護能力，以便最需要的人能夠得到治療。
Taiwan was
adjusting to the rapidly changing situation but needed to step up measures to encourage
the elderly to vaccinate by restricting their access to crowded gatherings and offering
more healthcare assistance to allow them to take
the jab at home, said Prof Chan.
台灣正在適應迅速變化的形勢，但需要加強措施，鼓勵老年人接種疫苗，限制他們進入擁擠的聚會場所，並提供更多的保健援助，讓他們在家裡接種疫苗。
“In living
with Covid we have to control the pandemic to a risk
level that is acceptable.” 我們必須將大流行病控制在一個可以接受的風險水準
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