台灣清零轉共存 The Guardian 20220509

摘自何美鄉FB

【縛雞之論】英文拷到 G / D 找中文翻譯
The Telegraph與The Guardian都指出一個特徵：台灣中國香港都堅持採用清零政策。意味著一中三區？
很荒謬，身為專家副總統，需要出口轉內銷，規勸走鐘很久的防疫步調。政治效果是台北市長黨內初選？
拖拖拉拉，神話開始破滅　學中國的台灣未超前部署　The Telegraph報導
台灣清零轉共存　The Guardian 20220509

Once a zero-Covid poster child, Taiwan learns to live with the virus    The Guardian 20220509 / Taimocracy 摘譯

By rejecting super-strict lockdowns, the island is pioneering a new and ‘very successful’ approach at odds with China and Hong Kong 放棄超嚴格的封城，台灣正在找有別中國與香港獨自的防疫之路。

Taiwanese people don’t mind queueing. They’ll do it for a well-reviewed restaurant, promotional giveaways, or to take an Instagram photo at a popular tourist site. But at 3pm outside a Gongguan pharmacy in Taipei, there’s grumbling in the line. It’s an inconvenient time to leave work, but for now it’s one of the only ways to get your hands on a rapid Covid-19 test.

Twenty minutes after the sales window opens, a woman walks out to the waiting customers: they’ve sold out. People are frustrated, having waited for up to two hours, and some leave to try again tomorrow. Two elderly people lean over a phone, looking at a map for other pharmacies nearby.

The pharmacist tells the Guardian that the store is only given 78 tests each day, and always sell out in less than half an hour. She laughs when asked if they can request more.  每天只有78份快篩，半小時內完售。問藥房說可能多一點嗎？藥劑師大笑以對。

The disappointed customers rush to another pharmacy, where an employee with a megaphone says there are only tests left for the next four people. When one of those four says they aren’t there to buy a test, the woman in fifth place jumps and shrieks with joy.

An hour earlier, the central epidemic command centre (CECC) had reported more than 30,000 cases for the previous 24 hours – the first time Taiwan has seen such numbers in this pandemic.

Once a poster child for the success of zero-Covid, Taiwan is now dealing with an “Omicron tsunami”. 台灣正在奮戰Omicron海嘯。 In response – and in stark contrast to regional neighbours – health authorities have decided zero-Covid is no match for the new variant and have flipped the switch to “living with the virus”.

“It is the right decision, and it’s also the decision we had to make,” says Dr Chen Chien-jen, Taiwan’s former vice-president and professor of epidemiology.

Taiwan closed itself off in early 2020, and employed a regime of stringent contact tracing, social restrictions and personal hygiene measures which it kept even as vaccines and antivirals were developed. It defeated an outbreak of the Alpha strain and another of Delta in 2021. But after the highly virulent Omicron began affecting countries in November and December, Chen says he and other scholars advised the government to start shifting towards living with the virus.  台灣在 2020 年初閉關，並採取了嚴格的足跡追踪、社會限制和個人衛生措施，即使在開發疫苗和抗病毒藥物時也保持這種制度。在傳染性的 Omicron 在 11 月和 12 月開始影響各國之後，陳建仁說他和其他學者建議政府開始轉向與病毒共存。

“The CECC decided we should adopt the policy some time later when booster shots reached around 40-45% [several months away], but Omicron never waits for anyone,” he tells the Guardian. Instead, it began spreading through the community in March.  CECC 決定我們應該再等一等採用該政策，直到 [幾個月後]第三針覆蓋率達到約 40-45%，但 Omicron 從不等待任何人。

The ‘new Taiwanese model’

Hong Kong, Taiwan and China were until now the last three major economies still clinging to zero-Covid. 迄今為止，香港、台灣和中國是最後三個仍堅持清零疫情的主要經濟體。 In Hong Kong the policy failed and the virus overwhelmed the city with disastrous results. In China, a steadfast commitment to it has produced arduous and economically damaging lockdowns, especially in Shanghai, with no end in sight. Taiwan appears to have seen both options, and decided on a third.  對香港疫情擴散的災難與中國封城的經濟損害，台灣似乎已經看到了這兩種選擇，並決定選擇第三條路。

It’s called the “new Taiwanese model”: an acknowledgment that they can’t stop the spread of Omicron, but that they can try – to use an early pandemic-era phrase – to flatten the curve.  新台灣模式：既然無法消滅，就試著壓低曲線。

Cases are still rising and experts predict a peak is three weeks away, with as many as 3.5 million of Taiwan’s 24.5 million people expected to eventually be infected, and up to 16,000 dead. 高峰在三週之後：350萬人染疫，約1.6萬人身故。As daily tallies ticked past 30,000 this week, the CECC continued to ease restrictions, drop mandatory QR code check-ins, and reduce quarantine times. It urged people to maintain mask-wearing, work from home if they could, reduce gatherings, get vaccinated and take a rapid test if they felt symptoms. It’s also trusting people to self-report, and isolate or quarantine at home.  除過去的措施外，CECC要求自覺症狀者快篩。

So is it working? In many ways, yes. Chen notes the fatality rate of the outbreak is still extremely low, below 0.2%. This year 66 people have died with Covid-19, bringing Taiwan’s total to 919 out of more than 345,000 cases. More than 99.75% of Omicron cases are mild or asymptomatic, and residents and businesses are still going about their days without lockdowns or panic. Visitor groups are being gradually allowed to return.

Hospitals are not at capacity, thanks to Taiwan pre-emptively ending a policy of mandatory hospitalisation for all cases. The same policy in Hong Kong had filled its hospitals before the wave began, but in Taiwan just 44% of hospital ICU beds (more than 62% in Taipei) were full as of Friday.  香港在高峰前醫院就塞滿，台灣在醫院還有餘裕前改變強制住院政策。

Prof Yen Muh-yong, the director of the infectious disease department at Cheng Hsin hospital, says Taiwan’s diversion of cases away from hospitals has been “very successful in relieving pressure” so far. But he fears it still won’t be enough for this wave and urges more integration of local and district services, to create surge capacity in the workforce and reduce hospital crowds.  現在有效，但因應高峰與人潮？

As cases rise there are also criticisms, including that the government is more reactive than proactive. Yen says transitioning to coexistence was the right decision, “but the brain is giving directions the hands and feet are not coping with”.  感染者增加，但論者評政府被動多餘主動。決策（大腦）與執行（手腳）無法配合。

“The government did not plan in advance for the procedures and the preparedness to live with the Omicron tsunami.”  政府沒有事先計畫好程序，也沒有準備好與Omicron海嘯共處。

‘Everyone is nervous’  所有人都焦慮

Rules and regulations change almost daily and incrementally. The death of a two-year-old boy last month highlighted communication failures exacerbated by Taiwan’s entrenched bureaucracy. 。The child’s parents had wanted to send their son to hospital but got conflicting instructions from multiple health services. By the time they got him to hospital it was too late.  兩歲女童染疫而亡，肇因於父母遵守指引，而各機關的指引相互衝突，而延誤送醫時機。

In factories, migrant workers have once again been discriminated against with unequal rule enforcement and eased restrictions, and poor vaccination rates among the very old and very young remain too low. Many elderly people have refused to get vaccinated against Covid-19, and the government only recently allowed vaccination for under-12s, despite lobbying from anxious parents.  許多老年人拒絕接種 Covid-19 疫苗，儘管焦慮的父母不斷反應遊說，但政府最近才允許為 12 歲以下的人接種疫苗。

Across the capital city, hospitals are reporting crowds of patients who are not sick with Covid. A nurse and anaesthetist at a Taipei hospital tells the Guardian her colleagues are understaffed and overworked, and don’t feel well supported.  台北一家醫院的護士和麻醉師告訴衛報，她的同事人手不足，工作過度，感覺得不到很好的支持。

“Everyone is nervous and they want to have PCR tests so they come to the emergency room, but there are also the patients who need to get more care than other people.”  大家都很緊張，想進行 PCR 測試，所以來到急診室，但也有患者需要比其他人更多的照顧。

The nurse says there is not enough protective equipment or backup to replace staff who go on leave because they caught the virus, are a close contact, or need to care for family. Instead, they’re told to keep working as long as they test negative, and are still subject to a pandemic ban on health workers leaving the country.  沒有足夠的防護設備或備用設備來替代因感染病毒、密切接觸者或需要照顧家人而休假的工作人員。相反，他們被告知只要檢測呈陰性就繼續工作，並且醫護人員仍被禁止出國。

Chen says authorities are addressing the issues in hospitals, but concedes Taiwan didn’t prepare an adequate supply of rapid tests, and still don’t have enough despite growing official reliance on them. On Monday, in response to mounting criticism, the government reverted to allowing some retail stores to sell non-rationed tests at market prices, but it didn’t have access to brand details or supply levels.  陳建仁說，當局正在解決醫院量能問題，但承認台灣沒有準備足夠的快速檢測供應，儘管官方越來越依賴它們，但仍然沒有足夠的供應。 週一，為了回應越來越多的批評，政府恢復允許一些零售店以市場價格出售非配給快篩，但政府無法獲得品牌細節或供應量。

There is generally widespread support for Taiwan’s efforts. Perhaps one of the biggest hurdles for the “new Taiwanese model” was to flip the narrative from a fear-filled zero-Covid commitment to gradual coexistence. The lower severity of Omicron has helped, says Chen. Taiwan also came under more pressure to reopen after cautious neighbours like South Korea and Japan joined the US and Europe in opening.  也許「新台灣模式」的最大障礙之一是將敘事從充滿恐懼的清零承諾轉變為逐步共存。

Recent polling by the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation found an almost even split of 45% in favour of a coexistence policy compared to 46.3% who weren’t. In July 2021 – at the tail end of the Alpha outbreak – 58.8% of people were worried the government was lifting restrictions too soon. Support for the CECC and minister Chen’s handling of Covid has also increased in that time, from 66.4% of respondents to 77.7%.

Yen says government messaging has been “well disseminated and transparent”. “People are not happy about the deficiencies in testing kit supply, and they are crowding in emergency departments but this can all be improved,” he says.  「人們對檢測試劑盒供應不足感到不滿，而擠在急診室，但這一切都可以改善」。

Yen says “there will of course be casualties”, but waiting out the worst of the pandemic until vaccines, treatments and a milder strain came along has brought them a long way. Taiwan is no longer the poster child for zero-Covid, but is hoping it can model something else instead – a calm and steady transition to rejoin the world after more than two years locked away.  台灣不再是清零的代表，而是希望可以塑造出其他東西——在被封鎖兩年多後，平靜而穩定地重新加入世界。

Additional reporting by Xiaoqian Zhu