19910306 北約承諾不東擴的會議記錄出土

【縛雞之論】
19910306北約不東擴的會議記錄，2月間由Der Spiegel披露，真實性應可信任。但是，並未見到會議記錄的文件，故暫存疑。
但北約東擴如賴怡忠文章所述，有其歷史發展，如俄羅斯狀況高度不穩定如1991年8月強硬派短暫政變復辟、俄羅斯攻打車臣，波蘭、匈牙利、捷克斯拉夫組成「維謝格拉德集團」（Visegrad group）要求成為北約一員、保加利亞總統要與北約建立連結。歐盟無力應付南斯拉夫分裂戰爭悲劇（斯洛文尼亞、克羅埃西亞、波士尼亞、塞爾維亞、科索沃），要美國在1995年出面介入調停，及1999年直接對塞爾維亞出兵等。
無論如何，有情事變更的事由，所以難解。

Discovered documents show that Western leaders promised not to expand NATO    Norning Express 20220220

Minutes of the meeting on March 6, 1991 in Ho Chi Minh City. Bonn (Germany) among political officials of the foreign ministries of the United States, Great Britain, France and Germany repeatedly mentioned the “2+4” negotiations on German reunification. In it, the West made it clear to the Soviet Union that NATO would not expand beyond Germany’s eastern border.  1991年3月6日在胡志明市的會議記錄。波昂（德國）美國、英國、法國和德國外交部的政治官員之間反覆提到關於德國統一的「2+4會談」。在其中，西方國家向蘇聯明確表示，北約不會擴大到德國東部邊界之外。

The document quotes US Assistant Secretary of State for Europe and Canada, Raymond Seitz, as saying: “We made it clear to the Soviet Union – in the 2+4 negotiations, as well as in other negotiations – that we do not intend to benefit from the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Eastern Europe.” 該文件援引美國負責歐洲和加拿大事務的助理國務卿Raymond Seitz的話：「我們向蘇聯明確表示--在2+4談判以及其他談判中--我們不打算從蘇聯軍隊撤出東歐中獲益。」

“NATO should not expand to the east, formally or informally,” he added. 「北約不應正式或非正式地向東擴張」。

A British representative also mentioned the existence of a “general agreement” that allowing Eastern European countries to join NATO was “unacceptable”. 一位英國代表還提到存在一個「普遍共識」，即允許東歐國家加入北約是「不可接受的。」

West German diplomat Juergen Hrobog said: “We made it clear in the 2+4 talks that we are not going to expand NATO beyond the Elbe. Therefore, we cannot allow Poland and other Eastern European countries to become members of NATO.”  德國外交官Juergen Hrobog 說：「我們在2+4會談中明確表示，我們不會將北約擴大到易北河以外。因此，我們不能允許波蘭和其他東歐國家成為北約的成員。

Minutes later showed him referring to the Oder River, the boundary between East Germany and Poland. Mr. Hrobog further noted that West German Chancellor Helmut Kohl and Foreign Minister Hans-Dietrich Genscher also agreed with this view.  幾分鐘後，他提到了奧得河，這是東德和波蘭的邊界。德國總理Helmut Kohl 和外交部長Hans-Dietrich Genscher 也進一步同意這觀點。

The document was found by professor of political science at Boston University (USA) Joshua Shifrinson in the UK National Archives. This was once a secret document, but has since been declassified.  這份文件是由波士頓大學（美國）政治學教授Joshua Shifrinson 在英國國家檔案館發現的。這曾經是一份秘密檔案，但後來被解密了。

In a tweet on February 18, Professor Shifrinson said the document showed that “Western diplomats believe they have indeed fulfilled their commitment not to expand NATO”.  Shifrinson教授在2月18日的一條推文中說，這份檔表明「西方外交官認為他們確實履行了不擴大北約的承諾」。

“Senior policymakers deny ever making a commitment not to expand NATO. This document suggests otherwise,” he wrote.  「高級政策制定者否認曾經作出過不擴大北約的承諾。這份檔表明情況並非如此，」他寫道。

During a press conference in December 2021, Russian President Vladimir Putin said the West had promised the Soviet Union that NATO would not expand “even one centimeter” to the east, but had “blatantly deceived” to do so there.  在2021年12月的一次記者會上，俄羅斯總統弗拉普丁說，西方曾向蘇聯承諾，北約不會向東擴張「哪怕一釐米」，但卻「公然欺騙」，在那裡這樣做。 

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg later countered, asserting that NATO “never promised not to expand”.  北約秘書長Jens Stoltenberg 後來反駁說，北約「從未承諾不擴張」。

In March 1999, NATO admitted Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic. The next expansion was in 2004 with the accession of former Soviet republics such as Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, pushing NATO’s eastern border to just 135 km from Russia’s St.Petersburg.  1999年3月，北約接納了波蘭、匈牙利和捷克共和國。下一次擴張是在2004年，愛沙尼亞、拉脫維亞和立陶宛等前蘇聯共和國加入，將北約的東部邊界推到離俄羅斯的聖彼德堡僅135公里。

In a series of security proposals published in December, Russia demanded that NATO publicly abandon its expansion into former Soviet republics such as Ukraine and Georgia, and roll back US military forces. NATO’s 1997 boundary, among other requirements.  在12月公佈的一系列安全建議中，俄羅斯要求北約公開放棄對烏克蘭和喬治亞等前蘇聯共和國的擴張，並縮減美國的軍事力量。北約1997年的邊界，以及其他要求。

The US and NATO have rejected the above proposals, saying that the “open door” policy to welcome new members is the basic principle.  美國和北約拒絕了上述提議，稱歡迎新成員的「門戶開放」政策是基本原則。