Dear
businessman
There
is not a slit of cracking that I can lay a finger to tick an error, neither on
your analyses (Internatl & External) nor on the brilliant action list. To me, you are more of a bright political
observer than a businessman. I could not
agree more than what you have put down.
International
politics is not as clear cut as a business transaction. For instances, country A could do something
absolutely charitable to country B for no reason. Country C could do absolutely harmful action to
country D for reasons beyond comprehension.
Things like these are impossible to be seen in a business world. Yet, in the arena of International Politics,
they are happening everyday just like routines.
Between
PRC and the US, key Questions which puzzled the entire world are:
1.
What
does US expect PRC to be?
2.
What
does PRC expect from the world?
Frankly,
these two questions are not yet clear to the Whitehouse as well as Bejing. Neither knows the answer.
Given
nature of the issue as such, various schools of thoughts have popped out over
time, ranging from one extreme of McCarthyism to another extreme Kissinger school,
Uncle Sam has been on roller coaster up and down for 70 years. Yet, Uncle Sam finds no answer. On the other hand, Beijing has no such a
trouble, because Beijing has been locked herself within one postulation -
- the Chinese Nationalism. It becomes obvious that the disputes between
the two giants are derived from huge gap of mutual expectations, i.e., who say
what should be accepted as the standard.
The
issue of Taiwan is also painted with the color involving footprints of two
giants. Even the existence of KMT on
Taiwan at the expense of Taiwanese people is a sketch of US “Western Pacific”
arrangement since 1945. When Kissinger
knocked the PRC’s door back in the 70’s, he was too naïve to anticipate that
things can be turned out so badly.
Kissinger’s doctrine has been proved completely wrong on recent
years. However, too bad, it is already too late.
Undeniable,
Taiwan is only one of the many issues twined within the US/PRC confrontation, competition, and cooperation. Resolving Taiwan issue does not mean that
both giants will be in peace forever. There
are numerous issues under the Sun which are far more important than Taiwan
issue. For example, carbon release
issue, international seaway issue, environmental issue, intelligence property
rights, patent and piracy issue, human rights issue, as well as N Korea, slavery
issue in the Africa, exploitation of Natural Resources in South America - - - - 。Settling
down Taiwan does not mean that the result will benefit the world and the
region, not even to mention all other issues. In fact, it could be worsening. Why?
Because the Chinese Nationalism has not as yet demonstrate a trustworthy
pattern to convince the world that PRC is a reliable, civilized, advance
leading country. They are big, they are
husky, strong, yet they are barbaric.
That is the image that PRC has portrayed herself to the world so far.
Looking
at the question from this angle, you can realize that the Taiwan issue is not a
single “Pro China” or “Pro-Taiwan”. It
is intertwined with the complexity of the world. Based on this reason, we can comfortably say
that Taiwan cannot be easily swallowed by Beijing within a short time, no matter
how hard they try to so. Beijing has to
calculate the cost/benefit involved in grasping Taiwan into their hand. Other than satisfying the fictitious
nationalism pride, having Taiwan under PRC dominion can only result marginal
economic merits. Yet the cost involved and the sustaining maintenance cost can
be too huge to justify the merits. When
the total cost is far higher than the benefit for the next 50 years, will any
businessman invest in such a deal?
Besides, there is also risk to take and which can turns out to be the
biggest nightmare for Beijing.
Anyway,
the story can be kept going on and on.
I’d better stop right here.
Should you like to chit chat more, you can discuss it privately so that
we don’t pollute this public forum.
Best
regards
Ajin,
the nodding fortune teller under the coconuts tree
By Jasmine
回覆刪除Please please do discuss both of your opinions publicly. I really love to listen and learn!!
2005反分裂法下,國共制台,2015南海建島圈地,國共制美。
回覆刪除中國夢
刪除貓貓也希望 ajin桑 與 businessman桑的討論可以 繼續下去 !!請不要隱藏!! 寫英文沒關係 !! 貓貓會用翻譯軟體盡可能理解!! 不同觀點的交流真的會交織出不一樣的火花 說實話 這樣的討論 不是常有機會看到 從兩位討論過程中 貓貓了解不少 謝謝兩位!! 真的很期待 有後續的討論!!
回覆刪除貓尾巴合十