馬習會：逸名網友請問椰子樹老大！

【Comment】

以下是逸名網友指明給椰子樹老大的。在此貼出。

Dear Ajin,

Fully agree with you that this event should not be interpreted only from the perspectives of the cross-strait relationship or the impacts to the coming elections, we should observe this event via the geopolitical framework.  Followings are my amateur observations and your comments are more than welcome.   

Why now? External analysis.

The US policies toward China are under transition.  The past hypotheses that China will become, thru economic development, a tolerant nation if not free and a responsible stakeholder to the world are proven illusionary.  On the contrary, its intention and capabilities to challenge the current world order are growingly visible and China is never shy, in words and by actions, to test the limits.  China knows the US attitude is changing.  It also knows it has to break down the US-led coalition fast by carrots and sticks.  Recently, we can see China is doing everything it could to tear apart the coalition such as pledging big-ticket investments with the UK, sweetening the relations with Germany and Canada, portraying a seemly military alliance with Russia, softening its hard-line stance toward Japan, increasing the economic cooperation globally and etc., in order to build its sphere of influence.

Taiwan is surely a critical point to break.  China, I guess, has two goals - aggressive and passive.  Aggressive goal is to lock Taiwan into a framework that it can never break away - such as reiterating 92 consensus, increasing economic control through goods and service trade agreements and investments, etc.  Passive goal is to make sure Taiwan will not stand against Chinese interests (such as South China Sea) or join the US coalition of containment if DDP was in power.  China will not dialogue with DDP (unless it bowed to the one-China principle) and therefore Ma and KMT is a viable tool to balance DPP and make sure Taiwan and DDP will not break away the piggy fence they set for us.

Why now - Internal analysis.

As for the possible results of the coming elections - China is definitely concerned about the possible DDP’s landslide victory.  But its biggest fear is, if I were them, that KMT will shrink into a political dwarf in Taiwan due to the splits among different factions after the election.  This means pro-unification forces in the island would gradually diminish over time.  If KMT split and become a pure ethnic party (mainly mainlanders), this means Taiwan will further drift away from China in the long run.  Therefore, China needs to help KMT prevent a DDP landslide victory by minimizing the legislator seats lost in the election.  It also need to prevent the split of KMT, hence it might warn Ma to leave Wang Jin Ping alone.  Then why Ma is willing to dance with the wolf? I think the so-called historical place is a disguise.  I am sure Ma is worried about what might happen to him after the election.  Therefore, he needs a protector.  More interesting questions are will China prefer Ma chair KMT again in order to keep KMT in one piece? My guess is yes, China needs Ma to hold KMT together.  Ma also needs a position to keep him safe and preferably influencing Taiwan.  So, I guess Ma will replace Lien Chan as a key CCP proxy in Taiwan.  As for Eric Chu, I think he is out.

No role for the US? 

The biggest surprise to me is that the US has been totally left out in this show.  What does it mean to the US? How does the top officials in D.C.  perceive Ma's little trick of secret diplomacy? Will the US leak some information detrimental to Ma in the next few months? Or will the US strengthen its tie with Taiwan, for example accepting Taiwan into TPP, to pull Taiwan back to the Western camp? I don't know, but we need to closely monitor the changes.

  

What can we do if the candy were given after the meeting?

           If Ma and Xi announced some favorable news such as withdrawing missiles  aiming Taiwan (we all know this gesture is meaningless and not verifiable), special tax treatments for Taiwanese products, etc., and if Ma forcefully pass the trade agreements in the next few months in return, what can Tsai Yin Wen and Taiwanese do?

I guess not much.  The US wants Taiwan not be the first one to pull the trigger (meaning don't take any provocative action).  Once the agreements have been passed, it will be very difficult, if not impossible, for Tsai to overturn the agreements signed.  Tsai and Taiwan will be constrained to pace inside the cage built by China and Ma.  Taiwan can only wait patiently till the tension between the US and China become simmering and the wind turns favorable to us.  However, before that, we should

• Strengthen our economy by clearly mapping out our economic developments (such as consolidate industries and companies into ones like Samsung,
• Provide state supports and guidance to help our businessmen investing in South East Asia and globally,
• Aggressively join TPP and reduce over-reliance over China,
• Accept immigrants to rejuvenate the population in the short term and encourage birth rate by providing support systems to the young parents.
• Provide public housing (lease) to the weak but not drastically suffocate the construction businesses.
• Reform educations and get rid of the old school teachers,
• Rationalize the pension system and reduce unnecessary government spending, and
• Grow national armament industries and restore the glory of the armed forces.

Sadly, we have limited options and need to wait for the wind to change.  But we need to prepare in advance so we can sail to our destination smoothly and safely when the wind changes.  Borrowing a saying from Deng Xiao Ping, 韜光養晦

I am a businessman and I am never good at the politics.  These are very naïve viewpoints.  I would very appreciate if you all can share your views.