馬習會：椰子樹老大回覆網友

Dear businessman

There is not a slit of cracking that I can lay a finger to tick an error, neither on your analyses (Internatl & External) nor on the brilliant action list.  To me, you are more of a bright political observer than a businessman.  I could not agree more than what you have put down.

International politics is not as clear cut as a business transaction.  For instances, country A could do something absolutely charitable to country B for no reason.  Country C could do absolutely harmful action to country D for reasons beyond comprehension.  Things like these are impossible to be seen in a business world.  Yet, in the arena of International Politics, they are happening everyday just like routines.

Between PRC and the US, key Questions which puzzled the entire world are:

1.     What does US expect PRC to be?

2.     What does PRC expect from the world?

Frankly, these two questions are not yet clear to the Whitehouse as well as Bejing.  Neither knows the answer.  

Given nature of the issue as such, various schools of thoughts have popped out over time, ranging from one extreme of McCarthyism to another extreme Kissinger school, Uncle Sam has been on roller coaster up and down for 70 years.  Yet, Uncle Sam finds no answer.  On the other hand, Beijing has no such a trouble, because Beijing has been locked herself within one postulation - -  the Chinese Nationalism.   It becomes obvious that the disputes between the two giants are derived from huge gap of mutual expectations, i.e., who say what should be accepted as the standard.

The issue of Taiwan is also painted with the color involving footprints of two giants.  Even the existence of KMT on Taiwan at the expense of Taiwanese people is a sketch of US “Western Pacific” arrangement since 1945.  When Kissinger knocked the PRC’s door back in the 70’s, he was too naïve to anticipate that things can be turned out so badly.  Kissinger’s doctrine has been proved completely wrong on recent years.  However, too bad,  it is already too late.

Undeniable, Taiwan is only one of the many issues twined within the US/PRC confrontation,  competition, and cooperation.  Resolving Taiwan issue does not mean that both giants will be in peace forever.  There are numerous issues under the Sun which are far more important than Taiwan issue.  For example, carbon release issue, international seaway issue, environmental issue, intelligence property rights, patent and piracy issue, human rights issue, as well as N Korea, slavery issue in the Africa, exploitation of Natural Resources in South America  - - - - 。Settling down Taiwan does not mean that the result will benefit the world and the region, not even to mention all other issues. In fact, it could be worsening.  Why?  Because the Chinese Nationalism has not as yet demonstrate a trustworthy pattern to convince the world that PRC is a reliable, civilized, advance leading country.  They are big, they are husky, strong, yet they are barbaric.  That is the image that PRC has portrayed herself to the world so far.

Looking at the question from this angle, you can realize that the Taiwan issue is not a single “Pro China” or “Pro-Taiwan”.  It is intertwined with the complexity of the world.  Based on this reason, we can comfortably say that Taiwan cannot be easily swallowed by Beijing within a short time, no matter how hard they try to so.  Beijing has to calculate the cost/benefit involved in grasping Taiwan into their hand.  Other than satisfying the fictitious nationalism pride, having Taiwan under PRC dominion can only result marginal economic merits. Yet the cost involved and the sustaining maintenance cost can be too huge to justify the merits.  When the total cost is far higher than the benefit for the next 50 years, will any businessman invest in such a deal?  Besides, there is also risk to take and which can turns out to be the biggest nightmare for Beijing.

Anyway, the story can be kept going on and on.  I’d better stop right here.  Should you like to chit chat more, you can discuss it privately so that we don’t pollute this public forum.

Best regards

Ajin, the nodding fortune teller under the coconuts tree