【雙魚之論】
Although the U.S. Draft Proposal on Security Guarantees for Ukraine
is not but bundled together with the main body of the 28-point peace
agreement. This “add-on” mechanism expands the parties involved in the
peace agreement to include France, the United Kingdom, Germany, Poland,
Finland, the European Union, and NATO—and possibly even “non-NATO allies and
partners,” such as Japan, in the future. It is clearly designed for the alliance.
YouTuber Jiang Feng’s commentary elevates
the issue from a Russia-Ukraine conflict plus a mediator to the level of
U.S.–China strategic competition. He views this move as the United States
“snatching Russia—this piece of meat—out of China’s bowl,” a classic “aligning
with Russia to contain China,” thereby shattering China’s “aligning with Russia
to contain the U.S.” strategy.
This perspective carries considerable weight. If China’s aggressive competition
succeeds, the world order and even the model of civilization will be rewritten
in favor of CCP’s interests—that is the paramount concern. Only a clear, free
from brain-washed mindset can recognize and counter the CCP’s dark magic.
Seen from these multilayered angles, one can finally understand that Japanese Prime
Minister Sanae Takaichi’s hard-line stance is not an act on her own; rather, an
echo of the broader alliance. Any Beijing’s attempt to suppress Japan using its
decades-old playbook (including forcing self-blame on World War II,
agricultural sanctions, tourism bans, etc.) is destined to be futile.
〈美國對烏克蘭安全保證草案提案〉雖非〈28點和平協議〉本體,卻是綁在一起的。此一「外掛」設計,將和平協議關係方增加了:法國、英國、德國、波蘭、芬蘭、歐盟、北約,說不定還有「非北約盟國與夥伴」。這「外掛」是給盟國用的。
江峰的YT評論則從烏俄雙方+調停者,拉高到美中戰略競爭,並將此舉視為美國從中國的碗裡搶出俄羅斯這塊肉的「聯俄制中」,並讓中國的「聯俄制美」戰略破局。
這樣的看法有一定的道理,因為中國的侵略性競爭若成功,世界秩序與文明模式將被改寫為對中共有利,這是重中之重。必需要有不被洗腦的清楚思路才能認知並壓制中共的暗黑手段。
從以上多層次觀點看,也才會明瞭高市早苗的強硬立場並非獨自行為,而是同盟的呼應。中國要以過去幾十年的老套手段(包括反省二戰、農產與觀光制裁等)企圖壓制日本,將是徒勞無功的。
〈28點烏克蘭和平計畫〉!
〈美國對烏克蘭安全保證草案提案〉
美國確認,俄羅斯聯邦對烏克蘭領土跨越約定停戰線的重大、蓄意且持續的武裝攻擊,應被視為威脅跨大西洋共同體和平與安全的攻擊。在此類事件中,美國總統將依據憲法權力行使,並在與烏克蘭、北約及歐洲夥伴立即磋商後,決定恢復安全的必要措施。
北約成員國——包括法國、英國、德國、波蘭及芬蘭——確認烏克蘭的安全是歐洲穩定不可或缺的一部分,並承諾在任何相關違約事件中,與美國共同行動,確保統一且可信的嚇阻態勢。
本保證初始有效期為十年(10年),並可經簽署方互相同意延長。
本協議應由烏克蘭、美國、歐盟、北約及俄羅斯聯邦的代表簽署。
U.S. Draft Proposal on Security
Guarantees for Ukraine
The
United States affirms that a significant, deliberate, and sustained armed
attack by the Russian Federation across the agreed armistice line into
Ukrainian territory shall be regarded as an attack
threatening the peace and security of the transatlantic
community. In such an event, the President of the United States shall,
in exercise of constitutional authority and after immediate consultations with Ukraine, NATO, and European partners, determine
the measures necessary to restore security.
NATO members—including France, the United Kingdom, Germany, Poland, and
Finland—affirm that Ukraine’s security is an integral part of Europe’s
stability and commit to acting jointly with the United States in response to
any relevant breach, ensuring a unified and credible deterrent posture.
The
guarantee shall be in effect for an initial period of ten (10) years and may be
renewed by mutual consent of the signatories.
This
agreement shall be signed by representatives of Ukraine, the United States, the
European Union, NATO, and the Russian Federation.
NATO 第五條英文原文(官方正式文本)
繁體中文準確翻譯(外交級精確版本)
第五條
締約國同意,對歐洲或北美之一個或多個締約國的武裝攻擊,應視為對所有締約國的攻擊,並因此同意,如發生此種武裝攻擊,各締約國行使《聯合國憲章》第五十一條所承認之個別或集體自衛之自然權利,應立即單獨並與其他締約國共同對被攻擊之締約國或數締約國提供援助,採取其認為必要之行動,包括使用武裝力量,以恢復並維持北大西洋地區的安全。
任何此種武裝攻擊及因而採取的一切措施,應立即向安全理事會報告。此等措施於安全理事會已採取恢復並維持國際和平及安全之必要措施時,即應終止。
以下是《北大西洋公約》(North Atlantic Treaty)於1949年4月4日簽署的第五條完整原文(僅英文,來自北約官方網站):
Article
5
The Parties agree that an armed attack against one
or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack
against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack
occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective
self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations,
will will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith,
individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems
necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the
security of the North Atlantic area.
Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a
result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such
measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures
necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security.
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