【雙魚之論】
川普的20協議,像是「路線圖」—規定具體步驟的國際協議。但,評論者認為不夠詳細,有許多地方語焉不詳。
無論如何,這是國際共管領土,很傳統的作法但在國際保證的非軍事化之外還加上鉅資的經濟重建,目標是建立巴勒斯坦國。但此協議中並無巴勒斯坦權力機構(阿巴斯政府)的介入過渡階段治理的空間—先前無能力管制哈瑪斯,現在也無權力管理。阿巴斯只在最後需要建國合法性時擔任角色。
現在的情形是:哈瑪斯與加薩民兵在戰鬥。
Trump's 20-point Gaza peace plan in
full 川普20點加薩和平計畫全文
BBC 20251009
美國總統唐納德·川普表示,以色列和哈馬斯已「簽署」其 20 點加薩和平計劃的「第一階段」,這是朝著永久結束兩年戰爭邁出的重要一步。
9 月 29 日,他與以色列總理本雅明納坦亞胡在白宮共同宣布了該計劃,納坦亞胡表示以色列接受了這些條款。
10月3日,哈馬斯表示同意釋放被關押在加薩走廊的剩餘48名人質,以換取關押在以色列監獄的巴勒斯坦囚犯和加薩走廊的被拘留者,並同意將加薩地帶的治理權移交給巴勒斯坦技術官僚。
但該組織並未提及其他內容,其中最引人注目的是解除武裝的要求。
一旦停火生效,美國、卡達、埃及和土耳其的調解員將試圖讓雙方達成川普所說的「強大、持久和永久的和平」。
以下是白宮提供的總統計畫全文:
1. 加薩將成為一個去極端化的無恐怖區,不會對其鄰國構成威脅。
2. 加薩將重建,以造福飽受苦難的加薩人民。
3. 如果雙方同意此提議,戰爭將立即結束。以色列軍隊將撤至約定線,為釋放人質做準備。在此期間,所有軍事行動,包括空襲和砲擊,將暫停,戰線將保持凍結,直到完全分階段撤軍的條件具備。
4. 以色列公開接受本協議後72小時內,所有人質,無論生死,都將被遣返。
5. 所有人質獲釋後,以色列將釋放250名終身監禁囚犯,以及2023年10月7日後被拘留的1700名加薩人,包括所有在此過程中被拘留的婦女和兒童。每釋放一名以色列人質遺體,以色列將釋放15名已故加薩人的遺體。
6. 所有人質遣返後,承諾和平共處並解除武器的哈馬斯成員將獲得赦免。希望離開加薩的哈馬斯成員將獲得前往接收國的安全通道。
7. 本協議一旦接受,所有援助將立即送達加薩走廊。援助金額至少應與2025年1月19日達成的人道援助協議中規定的金額一致,包括修復基礎設施(水、電、污水處理)、修復醫院和麵包房,以及運送必要設備以清除瓦礫、開通道路。
8. 加薩地帶的分配和援助物資的進入將透過聯合國及其機構、紅新月會以及其他與任何一方均無任何關聯的國際機構進行,不受雙方干涉。拉法口岸雙向開放將遵循2025年1月19日協議規定的相同機制。
9. 加薩將由一個技術專家型、非政治性的巴勒斯坦委員會暫時過渡治理the temporary transitional governance of a technocratic, apolitical
Palestinian committee,負責為加薩人民提供日常公共服務和內政管理municipalities。該委員會將由合格的巴勒斯坦人和國際專家組成,並接受一個新的國際過渡機構—「和平委員會」the "Board of
Peace,"的監督和監管。該委員會將由唐納德·J·川普總統擔任主席,其他成員和國家元首將另行宣布,包括前首相東·布萊爾。該委員會將制定加薩重建的框架並負責資金管理,直至巴勒斯坦權力機構完成其改革方案(如川普總統2020年和平計畫和沙烏地阿拉伯-法國提案中所述),並能夠安全有效地重新控制加薩。該委員會將遵循最佳國際標準,建立現代化、有效率的治理體系,服務加薩人民,並有利於吸引投資。
10. 川普將召集一個專家小組,制定一項旨在重建和振興加薩的經濟發展計劃,這些專家曾幫助中東地區一些蓬勃發展的現代奇蹟城市誕生。許多善意的國際組織已經制定了許多深思熟慮的投資提案和令人興奮的發展理念,這些提案和理念將被納入考量,以整合安全和治理框架,吸引和促進這些投資,為加薩的未來創造就業、機會和希望。
11. 設立特別經濟區A special economic zone,與參與國協商優惠關稅及進入稅率。
12. 任何人都不會被強迫離開加薩,希望離開的人將可以自由離開,也可以自由返回。我們將鼓勵人們留下來,並提供他們建立更美好加薩的機會。
13. 哈馬斯和其他派系同意不以任何形式直接、間接地參與加薩的治理。所有軍事、恐怖主義和進攻性基礎設施,包括隧道和武器生產設施,都將被摧毀,不得重建。加薩將在獨立監察員的監督下進行非軍事化進程,包括透過商定的退役程序永久禁止使用武器,並由國際資助的武器回購和重返社會計劃提供支持,所有這一切都將由獨立監察員監督。新加薩將全力致力於建立繁榮的經濟並與鄰國和平共處。
14. 區域夥伴將提供保證,確保哈馬斯及其各派系履行其義務,確保新加薩不會對其鄰國或人民構成威脅。
15. 美國將與阿拉伯和國際夥伴合作,組成一支臨時國際穩定部隊(a
temporary International Stabilisation Force, ISF),並立即部署到加薩。ISF將對加薩經過審查的巴勒斯坦警察部隊進行培訓並提供支援,並將與在此領域擁有豐富經驗的約旦和埃及進行磋商。這支部隊將成為長期的內部安全解決方案。ISF將與以色列和埃及合作,協助確保邊境地區的安全,並與新近訓練的巴勒斯坦警察部隊合作。至關重要的是,防止彈藥進入加薩,並促進物資快速安全地流通,以重建和振興加薩。雙方將商定一個衝突消除機制。
16. 以色列不會佔領或吞併加薩。隨著臨時國際穩定部隊(ISF)控制並實現穩定,以色列國防軍(IDF)將根據以色列國防軍、ISF、擔保國和美國商定的與非軍事化相關的標準、里程碑和時間表撤軍,目標是建立一個安全的加薩,不再對以色列、埃及及其公民構成威脅。實際上,以色列國防軍將根據其與過渡當局達成的協議,逐步將其佔領的加薩領土移交給ISF,直至其完全撤出加薩,但會保留安全警戒線,直至加薩完全安全,免受任何死灰復燃的恐怖威脅。
17. 若哈馬斯延遲或拒絕這項提議,上述內容,包括擴大的援助行動,將在由以色列國防軍(IDF)移交給臨時國際穩定部隊(ISF)的無恐怖活動地區繼續進行。
18. 將在寬容與和平共處的價值觀基礎上建立跨宗教對話進程,透過強調和平帶來的好處,努力改變巴勒斯坦人和以色列人的思維方式和觀念。
19. 隨著加薩重建工作的推進和巴勒斯坦權力機構改革方案的忠實執行,最終可能為巴勒斯坦實現自決和建國提供一條可靠的道路,我們承認這是巴勒斯坦人民的願望。
20. 美國將建立以色列和巴勒斯坦的對話,就和平與繁榮共處的政治前景達成協議。
1. Gaza
will be a deradicalised terror-free zone that does not pose a threat to its
neighbours.
2. Gaza
will be redeveloped for the benefit of the people of Gaza, who have suffered
more than enough.
3. If
both sides agree to this proposal, the war will immediately end. Israeli forces
will withdraw to the agreed upon line to prepare for a hostage release. During
this time, all military operations, including aerial and artillery bombardment,
will be suspended, and battle lines will remain frozen until conditions are met
for the complete staged withdrawal.
4. Within
72 hours of Israel publicly accepting this agreement, all hostages, alive and
deceased, will be returned.
5. Once
all hostages are released, Israel will release 250 life sentence prisoners plus
1,700 Gazans who were detained after 7 October 2023, including all women and
children detained in that context. For every Israeli hostage whose remains are
released, Israel will release the remains of 15 deceased Gazans.
6. Once
all hostages are returned, Hamas members who commit to peaceful co-existence
and to decommission their weapons will be given amnesty. Members of Hamas who
wish to leave Gaza will be provided safe passage to receiving countries.
7. Upon
acceptance of this agreement, full aid will be immediately sent into the Gaza
Strip. At a minimum, aid quantities will be consistent with what was included
in the 19 January 2025 agreement regarding humanitarian aid, including
rehabilitation of infrastructure (water, electricity, sewage), rehabilitation
of hospitals and bakeries, and entry of necessary equipment to remove rubble
and open roads.
8. Entry
of distribution and aid in the Gaza Strip will proceed without interference
from the two parties through the United Nations and its agencies, and the Red
Crescent, in addition to other international institutions not associated in any
manner with either party. Opening the Rafah crossing in both directions will be
subject to the same mechanism implemented under 19 January 2025 agreement.
9. Gaza
will be governed under the temporary transitional governance of a technocratic,
apolitical Palestinian committee, responsible for delivering the day-to-day
running of public services and municipalities for the people in Gaza. This
committee will be made up of qualified Palestinians and international experts,
with oversight and supervision by a new international transitional body, the 「Board of Peace,「 which will be
headed and chaired by President Donald J. Trump, with other members and heads
of state to be announced, including Former Prime Minister Tony Blair. This body
will set the framework and handle the funding for the redevelopment of Gaza
until such time as the Palestinian Authority has completed its reform
programme, as outlined in various proposals, including President Trump's peace
plan in 2020 and the Saudi-French proposal, and can securely and effectively
take back control of Gaza. This body will call on best international standards
to create modern and efficient governance that serves the people of Gaza and is
conducive to attracting investment.
10. A
Trump economic development plan to rebuild and energise Gaza will be created by
convening a panel of experts who have helped birth some of the thriving modern
miracle cities in the Middle East. Many thoughtful investment proposals and
exciting development ideas have been crafted by well-meaning international
groups, and will be considered to synthesize the security and governance
frameworks to attract and facilitate these investments that will create jobs,
opportunity, and hope for future Gaza.
11. A
special economic zone will be established with preferred tariff and access
rates to be negotiated with participating countries.
12. No
one will be forced to leave Gaza, and those who wish to leave will be free to
do so and free to return. We will encourage people to stay and offer them the
opportunity to build a better Gaza.
13. Hamas
and other factions agree to not have any role in the governance of Gaza,
directly, indirectly, or in any form. All military, terror, and offensive
infrastructure, including tunnels and weapon production facilities, will be
destroyed and not rebuilt. There will be a process of demilitarisation of Gaza under
the supervision of independent monitors, which will include placing weapons
permanently beyond use through an agreed process of decommissioning, and
supported by an internationally funded buy back and reintegration programme all
verified by the independent monitors. New Gaza will be fully committed to
building a prosperous economy and to peaceful coexistence with their
neighbours.
14. A
guarantee will be provided by regional partners to ensure that Hamas, and the
factions, comply with their obligations and that New Gaza poses no threat to
its neighbours or its people.
15. The
United States will work with Arab and international partners to develop a
temporary International Stabilisation Force (ISF) to immediately deploy in
Gaza. The ISF will train and provide support to vetted Palestinian police
forces in Gaza, and will consult with Jordan and Egypt who have extensive
experience in this field. This force will be the long-term internal security
solution. The ISF will work with Israel and Egypt to help secure border areas,
along with newly trained Palestinian police forces. It is critical to prevent
munitions from entering Gaza and to facilitate the rapid and secure flow of
goods to rebuild and revitalize Gaza. A deconfliction mechanism will be agreed
upon by the parties.
16.
Israel will not occupy or annex Gaza. As the ISF establishes control and
stability, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will withdraw based on standards,
milestones, and timeframes linked to demilitarization that will be agreed upon
between the IDF, ISF, the guarantors, and the United States, with the objective
of a secure Gaza that no longer poses a threat to Israel, Egypt, or its
citizens. Practically, the IDF will progressively hand over the Gaza territory
it occupies to the ISF according to an agreement they will make with the
transitional authority until they are withdrawn completely from Gaza, save for
a security perimeter presence that will remain until Gaza is properly secure
from any resurgent terror threat.
17. In
the event Hamas delays or rejects this proposal, the above, including the
scaled-up aid operation, will proceed in the terror-free areas handed over from
the IDF to the ISF.
18. An
interfaith dialogue process will be established based on the values of
tolerance and peaceful co-existence to try and change mindsets and narratives
of Palestinians and Israelis by emphasizing the benefits that can be derived
from peace.
19. While
Gaza re-development advances and when the PA reform programme is faithfully
carried out, the conditions may finally be in place for a credible pathway to
Palestinian self-determination and statehood, which we recognise as the
aspiration of the Palestinian people.
20. The
United States will establish a dialogue between Israel and the Palestinians to
agree on a political horizon for peaceful and prosperous co-existence.
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