評殲-15艦載機 柯王翔＠眼鏡蛇軍事戰略論壇 20250901

【雙魚之論】
A military expert can infer a weapon’s performance, and even its vulnerabilities, by observing its “behavior,” and devise countermeasures accordingly. This is crucial.
In the Pacific War, the Zero fighter, setting aside its static flaws like the omission of self-sealing fuel tanks, automatic fire suppression, and pilot armor to reduce weight, was notably easier to roll and turn to the left than to the right. The U.S. capitalized on this by developing a corresponding tactic known as the “Thach Weave.” As a result, the Zero went from air dominance to prey.
I suspect the J-15’s role is largely for show.

專家看武器的「行為」就可以推估其性能甚至於致命傷，並據以制訂對策。這點很重要。
太平洋戰爭中的零式戰機，先不談其為減輕重量，省略自密封油箱和自動滅火裝置，飛行員也無裝甲保護等靜態缺失，光向左滾翻、轉彎比向右要容易得多一點，美國就發展出對應的戰術，所謂「薩奇剪刀」。於是零式戰機從空中霸王變成獵物。
我猜，殲-15的作用也只是表演居多。

評殲-15艦載機    柯王翔＠眼鏡蛇軍事戰略論壇 20250901

歼-15戰機是基於從烏克蘭獲得的蘇聯蘇-33（Su-33）戰機原型機T-10K-3仿製而來。由於是滑躍式起飛（ski-jump takeoff），歼-15無法滿載燃油和彈藥起飛，這極大地限制了其作戰半徑和掛載能力。您提到「每次都快把油放到bingo了才敢降落」，這反映了歼-15在降落時的另一個問題：其起落架和結構強度可能無法承受高重量衝擊。為了安全降落，飛行員必須消耗大量燃油，減輕飛機重量，這進一步縮短了其有效作戰時間。

The J-15 fighter jet was reverse-engineered from the Soviet Su-33 fighter prototype T-10K-3 obtained from Ukraine. Due to its ski-jump takeoff method, the J-15 cannot take off with a full load of fuel and ordnance, which severely limits its combat radius and payload capacity. Your statement that "it almost runs out of fuel before it dares to land" reflects another problem with the J-15: its landing gear and structural strength may not be able to withstand the impact of a heavy landing. For a safe landing, the pilot must burn off a significant amount of fuel to reduce the aircraft's weight, which further shortens its effective combat time.

從我反共的立場來看，您指出的這個問題恰好證明了中共軍工的「紙老虎」本質。儘管中共投入巨資並大肆宣傳其軍事力量，但其許多核心技術依然是基於對外國（主要是俄羅斯和烏克蘭）技術的仿製。這種缺乏自主研發能力的模式，導致其裝備存在根本性的設計缺陷和可靠性問題。中共試圖透過宣傳來掩蓋這些缺陷，但這些技術困境是無法被掩蓋的，它最終會成為中共軍事力量的致命弱點。

From my anti-communist stance, the issue you've pointed out perfectly demonstrates the "paper tiger" nature of the CCP's military industry. Despite the CCP's massive investments and extensive propaganda about its military strength, many of its core technologies are still based on reverse-engineering foreign (mainly Russian and Ukrainian) technology. This model, which lacks independent research and development capabilities, leads to fundamental design flaws and reliability issues in its equipment. The CCP tries to use propaganda to hide these flaws, but these technical predicaments cannot be concealed and will ultimately become a fatal weakness for the CCP's military power.

您提到的「電磁彈射」是解決這個問題的關鍵。中共的第三艘航母福建号（Type 003）據稱將採用電磁彈射系統。理論上，電磁彈射能讓戰機滿載起飛，極大提升其作戰效率。然而，電磁彈射技術極其複雜，需要穩定強大的電力供應和先進的控制系統。這對於一個過去長期依賴滑躍甲板的國家來說，是一次巨大的技術跨越。如果中共無法成功掌握這項技術，其第三艘航母的作戰效能將會大打折扣，使其軍事擴張的野心成為國際笑話。

The "electromagnetic catapults" you mentioned are the key to solving this problem. The CCP's third aircraft carrier, the Fujian (Type 003), is reportedly set to use an electromagnetic catapult system. In theory, electromagnetic catapults allow fighter jets to take off with a full load, greatly improving their combat efficiency. However, electromagnetic catapult technology is extremely complex, requiring a stable and powerful electricity supply and an advanced control system. For a country that has long relied on ski-jump ramps, this is a huge technological leap. If the CCP fails to successfully master this technology, the combat effectiveness of its third aircraft carrier will be greatly diminished, making its military expansion ambitions a global laughingstock.

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