對川普與澤倫斯基失敗會談的觀察

【雙魚之論】英文拷到 G / D 找中文翻譯
We must be understanding: parties engaged in war express a sense of urgency, while mediators must take a broader picture into account.
The war in Ukraine has now lasted three years, mirroring the time frame of the Korean War and testing the limits of human psychological endurance.
Multiple factors must be considered, all of which are realities of the conflict: Russia’s invasion; violations of international law; NATO’s eastward expansion; Russia’s lack of strategic buffer zones; the necessity of diplomacy for peace; the imperative for third-party mediators to remain impartial; the risk of World War III if the conflict spirals out of control; the need for economic incentives to ensure successful reconstruction; and the understanding that without effective reconstruction, lasting security will remain elusive.
A battlefield victory is merely a tactical outcome—highly unstable. Without diplomatic agreements to solidify its results, there will be no genuine peace. True peace requires the signing and adherence to a formal treaty.
Unfortunately, Zelensky fails to appreciate efforts from different perspectives, foreshadowing his eventual downfall. While Europe supports Ukraine, it does not necessarily support a president committed to fighting to the bitter end—whether leading to victory or defeat. The longer the war drags on, the deeper the debts incurred by Ukraine and its backers. Worse still, if Russia collapses and fragments, it could trigger a new global crisis—one that risks escalating into a world war.

我們要諒解：戰爭中的當事人表達急切；我們也必須理解：斡旋的人要顧及全局。
烏俄戰爭打三年，就是韓戰的時間尺度，也是人們的心理忍受程度。
烏俄戰爭有很多面向要顧及，也都是事實：俄羅斯入侵、破壞國際法、北約東擴、俄羅斯缺乏戰略緩衝、和平要外交解決、第三國要斡旋和平所以不能過度偏向、一個戰爭控制不好會引起世界大戰、對各方沒有經濟誘因重建就不會成功、重建不成功就不會有安全等。
僅僅戰鬥勝利，只是戰場上的物理結果，非常不穩定。若不透過外交確定下來，就不會有和平—和平指的是簽署和約，依約而行。
可惜，澤倫斯基無法體會不同角度的努力，這預示了自己下台的結果。歐洲雖然支持烏克蘭，可不一定是支持奮戰到底（可能贏、也可能輸）的總統。因為，戰越久國家與支持者的欠債也越多。若俄羅斯垮台而分崩離析，將導向另外一個全球性的困局。那是世界大戰了。