【雙魚之論】英文拷到 G / D 找中文翻譯
The article titled "Building an
Economic Superpower - Unveiling the Secrets of China's Rapid
Industrialization" discusses China's rapid economic ascent in a short
period, as mentioned in a YouTube video.
Using a perspective of developmental stage theory, the author Yi WEN explains
how China quickly became a global economic powerhouse and is expected to
continue its strong growth. The key, elements, according to the author, lies in
recognizing that developing countries like China lack a mature market and market
creators. Thus, government intervention is deemed necessary, with the
government playing a crucial role in coordinating the market and making
continuous investments, including in basic industries and infrastructure.
This perspective aligns with the ideas of Maynard Keynes, advocating for
government spending to supplement deficiencies in the economic cycle, as
expressed in the formula GDP = C + I + G + (X - M). Naturally, this approach is
well-suited for a communist society, where an all-encompassing and powerful
government is deemed necessary.
However, the author's argument clearly lacks connections to the international
community, ignoring that China's economy is an integral part of the global
economy, particularly in technology, and even with the broader context of world
civilization. This perspective was challenging to dispute for some time. As the
United States and China entered into a severe strategic competition, China's
economy faced challenges. Where did it go wrong?
Additionally, authoritarian politics does not naturally come to a halt; it
tends to overreach. For instance, in 2009, China boosted its economy by
investing in infrastructure. While this investment-dominated or supply-driven economy
can be effective in the short term; but over time, it encounters fatal flaws,
such as the inability of investments to circulate on their own.
Methodologically speaking, the author's mistake lies in a simplistic
extrapolation approach: "the future must inevitably be the same as the
past." This method relies on a straightforward projection without
considering whether the past has been proven correct or truthful. In other
words, the author remains a follower of a mechanical determinism similar to Karl
Marx's.
In the end, the author spent 40% of the content extolling the goals and ideals
of communism through slogans, deviating from theoretical discussions. The first
half and the second half are completely unrelated. Furthermore, towards the
conclusion, there is even direct praise for Xi Jinping's financial regulation,
technological surveillance, common prosperity, and labor division, wasting my
translation efforts in vain.
Making an Economy Superpower--Unlocking China's Secret of Rapid Industrialization文一，〈打造經濟超級大國——揭開中國快速工業化的秘密〉（China's Stagnating
Economy: How a Rising Superpower Fell From Grace），是在YT的影片中提及，遂予以翻譯。
作者以發展的階段論觀點，說明中國在短時間內成為世界經濟超強（還會繼續強下去），關鍵是他認為後進國家如中國，缺乏市場與缺乏市場創造者，所以需要政府的權威介入，政府主要權威功能是協調市場，以及連續投資（包括基礎工業與基本建設）。
這是類似Maynard Keynes的觀點，以政府支出來補充經濟循環中的不足部份，或GDP=C+I+G+(X-M)。當然，正好符合共產主義環境，必須有一個無所不能的偉大政府。
但作者的論述明顯缺乏與世界的關連（中國經濟也是世界經濟的一環，甚至科技更是如此），甚至於與世界文明的關連。這套說法在過去一段時間很難反駁，但當美中展開戰略競爭之後，中國經濟就不行了。原因出在哪裡？
另外，就是威權政治不會自動停止，總會操作過頭。如2009年中國以投資基礎建設拉抬經濟，這種投資或供給主導的經濟，短時間有效，時間一拉長就會遇到投資無法自行周轉的致命缺失。
在方法論上，作者的錯誤是：「過去是這樣，未來必然這樣」，這種簡單外推法。這還沒說「過去是這樣」是否已經證明是正確或真理。換言之，作者仍是一種馬克斯的機械論信徒。
最後，作者花了40％的篇幅以口號頌揚共產主義的目標與理想，偏離理論論述，前半部與後半部完全無關，甚至於在最後，直接頌揚習近平的金融管制、科技監控、共同富裕、勞動分工，白白浪費我的翻譯功夫。
https://s3.amazonaws.com/real.stlouisfed.org/wp/2015/2015-006.pdf
China's
Stagnating Economy: How a Rising Superpower Fell From Grace
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7bOSWQttmvU
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The rise of China is no doubt
one of the most important events in world economic history since the
Industrial Revolution. Mainstream economics, especially
the institutional theory of economic development based on a dichotomy of
extractive vs. inclusive political institutions, is highly inadequate in
explaining China’s rise. This article argues that only a
radical reinterpretation of the history of the Industrial Revolution and the
rise of the West (as incorrectly portrayed by the institutional theory) can
fully explain China’s growth miracle and why the determined rise of China is
unstoppable despite its current “backward” financial system and political
institutions. Conversely, China’s spectacular
and rapid transformation from an impoverished agrarian society to a
formidable industrial superpower sheds considerable light on the fundamental
shortcomings of the institutional theory as well as mainstream “blackboard”
economic models, and provides more-accurate reevaluations of historical
episodes such as Africa’s enduring poverty trap despite radical political and
economic reforms, Latin America’s lost decades and frequent debt crises, 19th
century Europe’s great escape from the Malthusian trap, and the Industrial
Revolution itself. |
中國的崛起無疑是自工業革命以來世界經濟史上最重要的事件之一。 主流經濟學，尤其是基於剝削式與包容式政治體制二分法的經濟發展制度理論，在解釋中國的崛起方面顯得極不足夠。 本文主張，只有對工業革命和西方崛起歷史的根本性重新詮釋（正如制度理論所錯誤描繪的）才能充分解釋中國的經濟奇蹟以及為何中國堅定的崛起是不可阻擋的，儘管其目前的「落後」金融體系和政治體制。 相反地，中國從一個貧困的農業社會迅速轉變為強大的工業超級大國，不僅揭示了制度理論以及主流「黑板」經濟模型的基本缺陷，還提供了對歷史事件的更為準確的重新評估，如非洲盡管進行了激進的政治和經濟改革仍陷入持久貧困陷阱，拉丁美洲的失落十年和頻繁的債務危機，19世紀歐洲擺脫馬爾薩斯陷阱的偉大轉折，以及工業革命本身。 |
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6. Conclusion: |
結論 |
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A New Stage Theory of Economic
Development Poverty or backwardness or the lack of industrialization is
always and everywhere a social coordination-failure problem. The problem arises because
creating markets and the corresponding economic organizations (based on the
principle of the division of labor) are extremely costly and require gigantic
coordination efforts and trust from all market participants. In a most fundamental
sense, the “free” market is a public good, and the most fundamental one,
whereas its pillar is social trust. All market transactions, such as
those involving transportation, information, communication, exchange,
management, negotiation, organization, payment, and contract enforcement
involve social trust and coexist with fraud, economic risk, and political
uncertainty. These transaction costs all depend on political stability and
social order and are merely elements (attributes) of this fundamental public
good. Because of the colossal costs in
providing this most basic public good and in building social trust, what is
fundamentally missing in agrarian countries is not democracy or modern
efficient high-tech firms, but rather the basic market creators. So, development is first and
foremost a problem rooted in both missing markets and missing
market-creators, in both market-coordination failures and government
failures. |
新的經濟發展階段理論，強調貧困、落後或缺乏工業化始終都是一個社會協調失敗的問題。 之所以出現這個問題，是因為創建市場和相應的經濟組織（基於勞動分工原則）的成本非常高，需要所有市場參與者的巨大協調努力和信任。從最根本的意義上講，「自由」市場是一種公共產品，也是最基本的產品，而其支柱是社會信任。 所有市場交易，如涉及運輸、資訊、通信、交換、管理、談判、組織、支付、履行契約等，都涉及社會信任，與欺詐、經濟風險、政治不確定性並存。這些交易成本都取決於政治穩定和社會秩序，而只是這一基本公共產品的要素（屬性）。 由於提供這一最基本的公共利益和建立社會信任所需的巨大成本，對於農業國家而言，根本缺乏的不是民主或現代高效的高科技公司，而是基本的市場創造者。 因此，發展始終是最先與最終的問題，其根源在於缺乏市場和缺乏市場創造者，在於市場協調失敗，也在於政府的失敗。 |
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The benefits of the market are
largely social while its costs (of creation and participation) are largely
private. Hence, historically, a natural process of mass-market
formation/fermentation has been a lengthy evolutionary process. It was initially accomplished
mainly by a powerful and colossal merchant class that acted collectively
under a nationalistic mercantilist spirit and backed fiercely by their
government. It took England and Europe hundreds of years to accomplish this
historical task of mass-market creation in the 16th to 18th centuries after
the Great Voyage and the discovery of America. The 1688 English Glorious
Revolution, as unique as it may be in Western history, was in many ways a
consequence of this lengthy market-creation and state-building process. It concentrated the political
power of the merchant class in the parliament. It ensured that all commercial
and international trade policies of the monarch truly reflected and protected
the interests of the merchant class who were the pivotal force of wealth
creation and the main taxpayers who financed the monarch’s repeated wars
against other European powers. It meant that “despotic power
was only available intermittently before 1688, but was always available thereafter.”
It showed “how a state can become powerful by reliably paying its debts to
citizens and to foreigners, as Venice, Genoa, Lubeck, Hamburg, and the Dutch
Republic had long shown…. A parliamentary monarchy that could borrow reliably
was one that could intervene in the balance of power on the Continent.” (D. What China’s development
experience showed to the world is that the centuries-long Western-style
“natural” and lengthy market-fermentation process can be dramatically
accelerated and re-engineered by the government, by its acting as the market
creators in place of the missing merchant class, yet without repeating the
Western powers’ old development path of barbaric primitive accumulations
based on colonialism and imperialism and slave trade. |
市場的利益很大程度上是社會性的，而其成本（創造和參與）在很大程度上是私人的。因此，從歷史上看，大眾市場形成/發酵的自然過程是一個漫長的進化過程。 它最初主要是由一個強大而龐大的商人階級完成的，他們在民族主義重商主義精神下集體行動，並得到政府的大力支援。在大航海和美洲發現之後的16至18世紀，英國和歐洲花了數百年時間才完成這一創造大眾市場的歷史任務。 1688年的英國光榮革命，儘管在西方歷史上可能是獨一無二的，但在許多方面都是這個漫長的市場創造和國家建設過程的結果。它把商人階級的政治權力集中在議會中。 它確保君主的所有商業和國際貿易政策真正反映和保護商人階級的利益，商人階級是創造財富的關鍵力量，也是資助君主與其他歐洲列強反覆戰爭的主要納稅人。 這意味著「專制權力在1688年之前只是間歇性地存在，但此後總是一直存在。」它展示了「一個國家如何透過可靠地償還對公民和外國人的債務而變得強大，正如威尼斯、熱那亞、呂貝克、漢堡和荷蘭共和國長期以來所表明的那樣......一個能可靠借貸的議會君主制是一個可以干預歐洲大陸權力平衡的君主制。」（D. McCloskey，2010 年，第 314 頁）
中國的發展經驗向世界表明，政府可以大大加快和重新設計長達幾個世紀的西方式「自然」和漫長的市場發酵過程，透過扮演市場創造者來代替缺乏的商人階級，而不會重複西方列強基於殖民主義、帝國主義和奴隸貿易的野蠻原始積累的舊發展道路。 |
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China’s development experience
thus suggests a new model (theory) of economic development, which can be
labeled as the New Stage Theory (NST), or “Embryonic” Development Theory
(EDT). NST is closely related to the old stage theory of List (1841), Marx (1867),
and Rostow (1960) and the other schools of development theory, such as the
Structuralism and New Structuralism,223 as well as the ISI and the “Big Push”
theory of development (as advocated by Paul Rosenstein-Rodan in 1943, and
Kevin M. Murphy, Andrei Schleifer, and Robert W. Vishny in 1989).224 The NST suggests that measured
economic policies and development strategies matter the most in determining
whether nations fail or succeed. Institutions are endogenous and often
created to facilitate the execution or implementations of a nation’s development
policies and strategies. This general point is in line
with the arguments of Justin Yifu Lin (1996, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013).225 The
NST identifies missing markets and missing market creators as the key
problems of development (as already understood in one way or another by many
existing theories), and emphasizes the important role of government in
overcoming the coordination failures and colossal costs in market creation
and industrial organization.226 Similar to the old stage theory
and the structuralism, NST emphasizes that, even for later developed or
developing countries, industrialization must always go through several major
and distinctive stages sequentially, with each stage facing its own problem
of missing market and market creators. Hence, the development problem
cannot be solved by just one big push through a one-time colossal national
investment boom facilitated by foreign aid or a top-down approach. Successful
economic development requires many rounds of step-by-step sequential “big pushes”
from the bottom up by both the local and central governments. |
因此，中國的發展經驗提出了一種新的經濟發展模式（理論），可以稱為「新階段理論」（NST）或「萌芽」發展理論（EDT）。NST與李斯特（1841年）、馬克思（1867年）和羅斯托（1960年）的舊階段理論以及其他發展理論流派密切相關，如結構主義和新結構主義，223以及ISI和「大推動」發展理論（如1943年Paul Rosenstein-Rodan），1989 年Kevin M. Murphy, 新階段理論（NST）指出，衡量得當的經濟政策和發展策略在判斷一個國家是成功還是失敗方面具有最大的影響。機構是內生的，通常被建立以促進一個國家發展政策和策略的執行或實施。 此一般觀點與林毅夫（1996,2009,2011,2012,2013）的論點一致。225 新階段理論將缺乏市場和缺乏市場創造者確定為發展的關鍵問題（正如許多現有理論已經以某種方式理解的那樣），並強調政府在克服市場創造和產業組織方面的協調失敗和巨大成本方面的重要作用。226 與舊階段理論和結構主義類似，NST強調，即使對於後來的先進國家或發展中國家，工業化也必須始終依次經歷幾個主要而獨特的階段，每個階段都面臨著缺乏市場和市場創造者的問題。 因此，在外國援助或自上而下的方法推動下，一次性巨大的國家投資熱潮，不能僅僅透過一次大推動來解決發展問題。成功的經濟發展需要地方和中央政府自下而上地進行多輪循序漸進的「大推動」。 |
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In other words, because industry
is an organic system with enormous fixed costs of operations, it thus
requires a colossal market to render organized production profitable through
its enormous scale effects. But the market for mass-produced industrial goods
cannot be created by a single “big push” under import substitution or “shock
therapy.” It can only be created step by step in the correct order
(sequence). Hence, industrialization is an
organic “embryonic” development process of sequential market creations, with
each stage financed through “primitive” accumulations in earlier stages. Put alternatively, this
sequential embryonic development process goes through distinctive stages of
organizational evolution and structural transformations and each stage is
associated with newer and deeper market creation and involves newer and
larger and more roundabout industrial structures, which are financed by
savings accumulated from earlier stages and supported by the purchasing power
(demand) created in earlier stages. The essence of this
developmental process is to gradually build up the capacity of mass
production and mass distribution and mass supply chains and industrial
clusters to exploit the economies of scale in multiple steps through the push
and pull between demand and supply: this process sequentially overcomes the
problems associated with the curse of food security, the Malthusian trap, the
missing Industrial Trinity, the infant industry, the middle income trap, the
lack of competitiveness, the financial crisis, the debt problems, and so on
encountered by so many developing countries at various developmental stages
in various forms. Through this developmental
process, the industrial structure becomes more and more specialized and
roundabout, more and more capital intensive, as well as more and more
competitive. All industrial “organs” and “parts” become more and more
interchangeable and self-reproducible.
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換句話說，由於工業是一個具有巨大固定經營成本的有機體系，因此它需要一個巨大的市場，才能透過其巨大的規模效應使有組織的生產有利可圖。但是，大規模生產的工業品市場不能透過進口替代或「休克療法」下的單一「大推動」來創造。它只能以正確的順序（順序）逐步創建。 因此，工業化是連續市場創造的有機「萌芽」發展過程，每個階段都透過早期階段的「原始」積累提供資金。 換言之，這種連續的萌芽發展過程經歷了組織演變和結構轉型的獨特階段，每個階段都與更新和更深入的市場創造有關，並涉及更新、更大和更迂迴的產業結構，這些結構由早期階段積累的儲蓄提供資金，並由早期階段創造的購買力（需求）支援。 這一發展過程的本質是逐步建立大規模生產和大規模分銷以及大規模供應鏈和產業累積的能力，透過需求和供應之間的推拉，分多個步驟利用規模經濟：這一過程依次克服了與糧食安全詛咒相關的問題，瑪爾薩斯陷阱、缺乏的工業三位一體、幼稚產業、中等收入陷阱、缺乏競爭力、金融危機、債務問題等等，是許多發展中國家在不同發展階段以各種形式遇到的。 透過這一發展過程，產業結構越來越專業化、迂迴化，資本密集度越來越強，競爭也越來越激烈。所有工業「器官」和「零件」變得越來越可互換和自我複製。 |
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In particular, to catch up with
and evolve into a modern organic industrial economy similar to Great Briton,
France, Germany, Japan and the United States, an agrarian nation (even in the
21st century facing the third industrial revolution) must go through three
main stages to fully industrialize: (i) the proto-industrialization stage,227
(ii) the first industrial revolution (IR) stage, and (iii) the second IR
stage. Modern financial capitalism is
built on the second IR stage and is powerful because of the ability to mass
supply tangible reproducible capital, not because of the capacity to print
money or issue debts (which, after all, are backed by real reproducible
assets; otherwise the nations run into debt crisis such as in Argentina and
Greece). Each stage requires a “big push”
since successfully embarking on each higher stage requires collective actions
and public finance that are beyond the financial capacity of the individual
industries and firms; but the initial first stage is the most critical and
fundamental because the economic and industrial structures at higher stages
are all based and built on those of the proceeding earlier stages. Using
mathematics as a metaphor: one cannot hope to understand calculus without
learning algebra first, which in turn is impossible without knowing
arithmetic first. Within each stage of
industrialization, there can be three phases: the activation phase, the
takeoff phase, and the completion phase. The last phase of each stage
also constitutes the initial activation phase of the next higher stage. For
example, the three phases of the first IR are characterized respectively by
(i) the proto-industrialization featuring primitive commercialized agriculture
production, the division of labor, regional economic specialization, and
primitive capital accumulations through local and long-distance trade in
labor-intensive and low value added goods, (ii) the formation of large-scale
factories and the mass production of light consumer goods through
mechanization (e.g., the stage of using 100 million T-shirts to exchange for
a Boeing airplane as China did in the 1990s), and (iii) the demand-driven
boom in industrial trinity of energy, locomotive power, and transportation
infrastructure. The flagship industry in the
second phase (the takeoff phase) of the first IR stage is the super
income-elastic textile industry, and that for the third phase (the completion
phase) is the coal/oil and railroad/highway and steam/combustion engine
industries.228 |
特別是，為了趕上並演變成類似於大不列顛、法國、德國、日本和美國的現代有機工業經濟，一個農業國家（即使在面臨第三次工業革命的21世紀）必須經歷三個主要階段才能完全工業化： （i）原始工業化階段，227（ii）第一次工業革命（工業革命）階段，及（iii）第二次工業革命階段。 現代金融資本主義建立在第二個工業革命階段之上，之所以強大，是因為能夠大量提供有形的可再生產資本，而不是因為印鈔或發行債務的能力（畢竟，這些債務是由真正的可再生產資產支援的；否則，這些國家就會陷入債務危機，如阿根廷和希臘）。 每個階段都需要「大推動」，因為成功進入每個更高階段都需要集體行動和公共財政，這超出了個別行業和公司的財政能力；但最初的第一階段是最關鍵和最根本的，因為較高階段的經濟和產業結構都是建立在早期階段的基礎和基礎之上的。用數學打個比方：如果不先學習代數，就不能指望理解微積分，而如果不先學習算術，這又是不可能的。 在工業化的每個階段中，可以有三個時期：啟動期、起飛期和完成期。 每個階段的最後期也構成了下一個更高階段的初始啟動期。例如，第一個工業革命的三個時期的特徵分別是：（i）以原始商業化農業生產、分工、區域經濟專業化、透過勞動密集型和低附加值商品的本地和長途貿易實現原始資本積累的原始工業化，（ii）透過機械化形成大型工廠和大規模生產輕消費品（例如，像中國在1990年代那樣用1億件T恤換一架波音飛機的階段），以及（iii）能源、機車動力和交通基礎設施三位一體的工業驅動型需求驅動的繁榮。 第一工業革命的第二期（起飛期）的旗艦產業是超高收入彈性的紡織業，而第三期（完成期）的旗艦則是煤炭/石油、鐵路/公路和蒸汽/內燃機產業。228。 |
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This last phase of the first IR
stage also constitutes the initial activation phase of the second IR stage.
Driven by the increasing demand for the industrial trinity and machine tools
used in light industries naturally leads to the mass production of machinery,
electricity, minerals, cement, steel, chemicals, trucks, ships, and motive
engines. Hence, the high point of the
second IR stage (its takeoff phase) is the ability to reach the point of
mechanized production of engines and heavy machineries (including fine
precision lathes and instruments) that once enabled and powered the
mechanization of the first industrial revolution featuring the mass
production of light consumer goods. The flagship industry in the
second IR stage is the steel industry (for the activation phase), the
automobile and shipbuilding industry (the takeoff phase, where China is now),
and the financial industry (the completion phase). The full mechanization of
agriculture can be achieved only during the second and third phases of the
second IR stage when mass production of machinery (and crop storage
technology) becomes possible or profitable. So only the second IR can
fundamentally solve the curse of the food security problem that has hunted
human societies throughout the age of agricultural civilization.229 Unlike the old stage theories,
the NST does not suggest single once-for-all “Big Push” and determinism.
Every development phase or stage requires substantial amount of public
investment led by the government, or relies on the state to play a critical
role of strategic leadership, intermediation, market creation, and social
coordination.230 Great Britain went through the
initial phase of the first IR stage during 1600s-1760s, the takeoff phase of
the first IR stage during 1760s-1830s, and the finishing phase during
1830s-1860s. It entered the initial (activation) phase of the second IR stage
during 1830s-1860s, the second (takeoff) phase during 1860s-1890s (the time |
第一個工業革命階段的最後期也構成了第二個工業革命階段的初始啟動期。在對工業三位一體的需求不斷增長的推動下，輕工業中使用的工具機自然導致了機械、電力、礦物、水泥、鋼鐵、化學品、卡車、船舶和動力發動機的大規模生產。 因此，第二工業革命階段（的起飛期），其高潮是能夠達到發動機和重型機械（包括精密車床和儀器）的機械化生產點，這些發動機和重型機械曾經實現並推動了第一次工業革命的機械化，其特點是輕消費品的大規模生產。 第二工業革命階段的旗艦產業是鋼鐵行業（啟動期）、汽車和造船業（起飛期，中國現在所在的位置）和金融業（完成期）。 農業完全機械化只能在第二工業革命階段的第二期和第三期實現，屆時機械（和作物儲存技術）的大規模生產成為可能或有利可圖。因此，只有第二工業革命階段才能從根本上解決在整個農業文明時代困擾人類社會的糧食安全問題的詛咒。229 與舊的階段理論不同，NST並不建議單一「大推動」和決定論。每個發展階段或時期都需要由政府領導的大量公共投資，或依靠國家在戰略領導、仲介、市場創造和社會協調方面發揮關鍵作用。230 英國在1600—1760年代經歷了第一個工業革命階段的初始期，即1760—1830年代第一個工業革命階段的起飛期，以及1830—1860年代的完成期。它在1830—1860年代進入了第二工業革命階段的初始（啟動）期，在1860—1890年代（卡爾·馬克思撰寫《資本論》時）進入了第二（起飛）期，在 1890—1920年代進入了第三（完成）期。 |
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The United States went through
these stages, respectively, during 1700s-1820s (proto-industrialization),
1820s-1850s (first IR takeoff), 1850s-1880s (railroad and steel industrial
boom and activating second IR, caught Europe’s attention as a rising world
power),231 1880s-1910s (second IR takeoff, automobile industrial boom, took
over England and became the global manufacturing powerhouse and superpower,
activating financial industrial boom), 1910s-1940s (finishing second IR and
agricultural mechanization and financial industrial takeoff, activating the
welfare stage or post-industrial stage), 1940s-1970s (welfare stage takeoff
and activating information-technology stage of the third IR), 1970s-2000s
(finishing welfare stage and the information stage takeoff), 2000s-2030s
(information stage completion and finishing the third Industrial
Revolution).232 China has partially gone through
these stages during 1978-1988 (full fledged proto-industrialization,
activating first IR), 1988-1998 (finishing first IR, becoming global giant in
textiles and other light consumer goods, and activating industrial-trinity
boom in coal, steel, and infrastructure), 1998-2008 (continuing
industrial-trinity boom in energy, steel, infrastructure, communication,
chemicals and activating second IR), 2008-2018 (second IR takeoff, becoming
the “factory of the World” in heavy manufacturing, and taking over the United
States to become the largest exporter of machinery and capital goods and the largest
economy in GDP, and activating the financial industrial boom and RMB
internationalization), 2018-2028 (finishing second IR, completing
urbanization and agricultural modernization/mechanization, achieving RMB
dominance in global trade and capital flows, entering the age of financial
capitalism and becoming the financial center of the world,233 formally
entering the welfare stage with mature medical and healthcare industries,
activating the third industrial revolution in information technology and green
technology), 2028-2038 (full-fledged information-stage takeoff and becoming a
world leader in heavy and computational industrial technologies and catching
up with the U.S. in informational technologies), and 2038-2048 (finishing the
third industrial revolution and surpassing the U.S. to become the global
leader of technology innovations). |
美國分別在 1700—1820年代（原始工業化）、1820—1850年代（第一次工業革命起飛）、1850—1880年代（鐵路和鋼鐵工業繁榮並啟動第二次工業革命，引起歐洲作為崛起的世界大國的注意）、231 1880—1910年代（第二次工業革命起飛，汽車工業繁榮，接管英國並成為全球製造業強國）、1910—1940年代（完成第二次工業化和農業機械化和金融工業騰飛，啟動福利階段或後工業階段），1940—1970年代（福利階段起飛並啟動第三次工業革命的資訊技術階段），1970—2000年代（完成福利階段和資訊階段起飛），2000—2030年代（資訊階段完成並完成第三次工業革命）232。 中國在1978—1988年（全面實現原始工業化，啟動了第一個工業革命），1988—1998年（完成了第一個工業革命，成為全球紡織品和其他輕消費品巨頭，並在煤炭、鋼鐵和基礎設施領域啟動了三位一體的工業繁榮），1998—2008（能源、鋼鐵、基礎設施、通信、化工等領域持續出現三位一體的繁榮，並啟動了第二次工業革命），2008—2018年（第二次工業革命起飛，成為「世界工廠」）。重工業，並接管美國成為最大的機械和資本貨物出口國和GDP第一大經濟體，並啟動金融工業繁榮和人民幣國際化），2018—2028年（完成第二次工業革命，完成城鎮化和農業現代化/機械化，實現人民幣在全球貿易和資本流動中的主導地位，進入金融資本主義時代，成為世界金融中心，233正式進入醫療健康產業成熟的福利階段，啟動資訊技術和綠色技術的第三次工業革命），2028—2038年（資訊化階段全面起飛，成為重工業和計算工業技術的世界領導者，在資訊技術方面趕超美國），2038—2048年（完成第三次工業革命，超越美國成為全球技術創新領導者）。 |
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According to this NST
chronology, China’s overall degree of industrialization in 2014, from a
historical perspective, is equivalent only to that of the United States
around 1910s-20s, despite the fact that some Chinese frontier technologies
are only 20 to 30 years behind those of the United States. This estimation of China’s
overall degree of industrialization is also consistent with two independent
estimations based on (i) the rural/urban population share and (ii) per
capital income growth. China’s urban population share in 2014 reached around
52% in 2014, whereas the U.S. urban population share reached about 51% in
1920. Also, real U.S. per capital GDP
in the 1910s (1920s) was about one tenth (one eighth) of its current level,
which is about the same gap as current per capita GDP between China and the
United States. However, the most important
similarity between today’s China and early 20th century United States is not
the level of income or urban population share, but rather the momentum (force
and dynamism) of transformation and growth. The United States burst forth
onto the world stage with a spectacular run of industrial growth in its
manufacturing capability around the 1910s-20s, so did China in the 2010s.
Assuming that China’s per capital GDP can maintain a growth rate of 7% per
year while the U.S. can maintain a growth rate of 2% per year for the next
few decades, in only 40 more years (or 30 more years based on PPP) China will
catch up with the United States in per capita income, which is again roughly
consistent with the prediction based on the NST chronology.234 By then China’s economy will be
4 times larger than the U.S. economy, assuming similar population growth in
both countries. |
根據NST年表，從歷史角度來看，2014年中國的整體工業化程度僅相當於1910—20年代左右的美國，儘管中國的一些前沿技術僅落後於美國20至30年。 對中國總體工業化程度的估計也與基於（i）農村/城市人口份額和（ii）人均收入增長的兩個獨立估計一致。2014年中國城市人口佔比達到52%左右，而美國城市人口佔比在1920年達到51%左右。 此外，1910年代（1920年代）美國實際人均GDP約為當前水準的十分之一（八分之一），這與目前中美之間的人均GDP差距大致相同。 然而，今天的中國與20世紀初的美國之間最重要的相似之處不是收入水準或城市人口份額，而是轉型和增長的動力（力量和活力）。 美國在1910—1920年代左右以驚人的工業增長在世界舞臺上嶄露頭角，2010年代的中國也是如此。假設中國的人均GDP能夠保持每年7%的增長率，而美國在未來幾十年內能夠保持每年2%的增長率，那麼再過40年（或按購買力平價計算再過30年），中國的人均收入就會趕上美國。234 到那時，假設兩國人口增長相似，中國經濟將比美國經濟大4倍。 |
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But China must overcome a series
of key challenges before reaching there. First, across the developmental
stages, the mode of production (hard core technology) experiences
revolutionary changes, and so too does the method of management. Management
is the soft power of industrial revolutions. For example, around the turn of
the 19th century during the takeoff period of the First Industrial Revolution
(1760-1830), the British industries experienced a management revolution as
represented by the factory system. Around the turn of the 20th century during
its takeoff period in the Second Industrial Revolution (1880-1920), the
United States experienced a management revolution (as represented by the Hence, China’s second industrial
revolution cannot be accomplished without a management revolution in
industrial manufacturing, consumer service provision (including financial and
medical and retail services), and government administration (including local
taxation, public facility and the school system). A rapidly growing market
for large co-operations and rising market demand for managerial human
capital—skilled managers and administrators in all sectors at all levels—will
trigger China’s management revolution.
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但中國必須克服一系列關鍵挑戰才能實現這一目標。首先，在整個發展階段，生產方式（核心技術）經歷了革命性的變化，管理方法也是如此。管理是工業革命的軟實力。例如，大約在19世紀之交的第一次工業革命（1760—1830）的起飛時期，英國工業經歷了以工廠制度為代表的管理革命。 大約在20世紀初，在第二次工業革命（1880—1920）的騰飛時期，美國經歷了一場管理革命（以泰勒體系為代表）。今天的中國正處於第二次工業革命騰飛的時期，因此也面臨著產品品質和服務質量升級的瓶頸，因此迫切需要一場管理革命，不僅在公司和企業內部，而且在所有公共行政機構和地方政府部門。 因此，中國的第二次工業革命離不開工業製造、消費者服務（包括金融、醫療和零售服務）和政府管理（包括地方稅收、公共設施和學校系統）的管理革命。快速增長的大型合作市場和市場對管理人力資本（各級各行各業的熟練管理人員和管理人員）的需求不斷增長，將引發中國的管理革命。 |
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Second, China needs to create a
modern financial system that is both prudent and also more efficient in
channeling funds from unproductive agents (savers) in the society to
productive ones (entrepreneurs). For this, China has much to learn from the
long historical experiences (bad and good) of the Western capitalism since at
least the Dutch Republic (e.g., the tulip bubble). Third, China needs to invent a modern
education system (from elementary to college) that combines both its
traditional oriental conservative virtues that emphasize within-family and
school learning and Western liberal education that encourages creativity and
critical thinking. Last but not the
least, China needs to develop a public healthcare system and drug-and-food
administration system that can strike a balance between equality (mass
access) and quality and can balance the costs and benefits of such systems. Healthcare-pharmaceutical and
food processing sectors are two of the key industries where market mechanism
can fail dramatically and miserably because of the severe degree of
asymmetric information in the high-tech knowledge involved and the tremendous
spatial-natural monopoly power of doctors over patients and companies over
consumers. In such industries the classical demand-and-supply analysis and
price mechanisms simply go astray. However, despite these and other
formidable challenges, China’s fundamentals look good and future looks
bright. |
其次，中國需要建立一個既審慎又更有效的現代金融體系，將資金從社會中的非生產性代理人（儲蓄者）引導到生產性代理人（企業家）手中。為此，中國可以從西方資本主義的長期歷史經驗（好的壞的和好的）中學到很多東西，至少從荷蘭共和國開始（例如，鬱金香泡沫）。 第三，中國需要建立一種現代教育體系（從小學到大學），既要結合強調家庭內部和學校學習的傳統東方保守主義美德，又要結合鼓勵創造力和批判性思維的西方通識教育。最後但並非最不重要的一點是，中國需要發展一個公共醫療體系和藥品和食品管理系統，能夠在平等（大眾可及性）和品質之間取得平衡，並能夠平衡這些系統的成本和收益。 醫療保健製藥和食品加工部門是市場機制可能嚴重失敗的兩個關鍵行業，因為所涉及的高科技知識中的資訊嚴重不對稱，以及醫生對患者和公司對消費者的巨大空間自然壟斷力量。在這樣的行業中，經典的供需分析和價格機制簡直誤入歧途。然而，儘管面臨這些和其他艱巨的挑戰，中國的基本面看起來不錯，未來看起來很光明。 |
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The fundamental reason the
United Kingdom, instead of the Netherlands, kick-started the Industrial
Revolution was because of Great Britain’s successful creation of the world’s
largest textile market and commercial distribution system in the 17th to 18th
centuries. The fundamental reason the United States, instead of France and
Germany, overtook the U.K. to become the next world superpower was its much
larger unified domestic market (several times the size of the United Kingdom’s
domestic market), which enabled the United States to emulate the English
Industrial Revolution at a significantly larger scale and adopt mass
production and mass distribution not only in the textile industry but also in
almost any other industry, including the home-construction industry, the
automobile industry, and even the food-processing industry. This far more thorough adoption
of the mode of mass production has generated for the United States far larger
demand for energy, motive power, and infrastructures (e.g., the rail and
highway system), which in turn has generated for the United States far more
colossal productive force and capital supply and financial depth. And it thus
dominates the global trade and world capital flows. By the same token, the
fundamental reason that China, instead of India, is well-positioned to
overtake the United States to become the next superpower in the 21st century,
despite the fact that China’s current per capital income is only about one
tenth or one seventh of the U.S. level, is not because of its later-comer
advantage, but rather because of its correct state-led development strategy
and its much larger unified domestic market than the United States. China has a population 4 times
that of the United States and a unified domestic market with a continuously
upgrading worldrank network of infrastructure. On top of that, it has a
2000-year cultural tradition that emphasizes national unity and education and
a capable mercantilist government that embraces pragmatism ( This fourfold larger unified
domestic market and a business- and education oriented open society (fully
open to international competition and trade and student exchanges) will make
it profitable to adopt mass production in China in aspects and at levels
never seen in the United States, as is already been manifested in China’s rapid
buildup of a full-fledged domestic speed-train network (as noted previously,
stretching all the way south to Singapore and north to Russia and east to
Europe) and its gigantic international “One Belt, One Road” plan for building
the new “Silk Roads” across both Eurasia continent and the Indian and
Atlantic oceans. Behind this ambitious and
unprecedented infrastructure and market-creation program is China’s 50%
national saving rate (equivalent to 25% of U.S. GDP or 50% of U.S. GDP based
on PPP) and nearly $4 trillion dollar foreign reserves accumulated through
proto-industrialization in the 1980s and its first industrial revolution in
the 1990s and its second industrial revolution in the 2000s. |
英國（而非荷蘭）能啟動工業革命的根本原因，是英國在17至18世紀成功建立了世界上最大的紡織品市場和商業分銷系統。美國（而不是法國和德國）超越英國成為下一個世界超級大國的根本原因，是其更大的統一國內市場（是英國國內市場的幾倍），這使得美國能夠在更大的範圍內效仿英國工業革命，不僅在紡織業，而且在幾乎所有其他行業都採用大規模生產和大規模分銷。包括房屋建築業、汽車工業，甚至食品加工業。 這種採用更徹底的大規模生產模式，為美國帶來了對能源、動力和基礎設施（如鐵路和公路系統）的更大需求，這反過來又為美國帶來了更大的生產力、資本供應和金融深度。因此，它主導著全球貿易和世界資本流動。 同樣的道理，儘管中國目前的人均收入只有美國的十分之一或七分之一左右，但中國（而不是印度）有能力超越美國成為21世紀的下一個超級大國，其根本原因並不是因為它的後來者優勢，而是因為它正確的國家主導的發展戰略和比美國大得多的統一國內市場。 中國的人口是美國的四倍，擁有一個不斷升級的世界排名基礎設施網路的統一國內市場。除此之外，中國還擁有一個有著2000年文化傳統的國家，強調國家統一和教育，以及一個擁抱實用主義的（約翰·杜威的哲學而非教條性意識形態）能幹的重商主義政府，使得中國極具適應力，能夠適應以商業為導向的社會、政治和制度變革。 這個四倍大的統一國內市場，以及一個以商業和教育為導向的開放社會（對國際競爭、貿易和學生交流完全開放），將使得在中國採用大規模生產在各個層面和水平上都能取得前所未有的利潤，正如中國迅速建設完備的國內高速鐵路網所顯示的那樣（正如先前提到的，一路延伸至新加坡、北至俄羅斯、東至歐洲），以及其巨大的國際「一帶一路」計劃，旨在建設橫跨整個歐亞大陸以及印度和大西洋兩洋的新「絲綢之路」。 支撐這一雄心勃勃且史無前例的基礎設施和市場創建計劃的，是中國高達50%的國內儲蓄率（相當於美國GDP的25%，或基於購買力平價的美國GDP的50%），以及在1980年代的原始工業化、1990年代的第一次工業革命和2000年代的第二次工業革命中積累的將近4萬億美元的外匯儲備。 |
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A gigantic market creates a
gigantic demand for manufacturing innovations and engineering wonders. This
was how the United Kingdom surpassed the Netherlands to become the first
industrial superpower by inventing the spinning jenny and the steam engine in
the 18th century. This was also how the United
States surpassed the United Kingdom to become the next superpower by
inventing the Ford assembly line and the internet in the 20th century. This is also why China will
likely surpass the United States to become the new superpower in the 21st
century by inventing technologies that can shrink and flatten the earth once
again by many more hundreds of percent than what Columbus’s great voyage had
once achieved. The rise of the West, despite
its spectacular scale and thundering impact on humanities, still has not been
able to lift Africa (human’s common birthplace and land of origin) out of the
Malthusian poverty trap for several hundred years, because of the legacy of
Western colonialism and misguided development policies designed by
international organizations such as the IMF and the World Bank. But China offers the developing world a
“new” model of development based on the “old” iron logic of the Industrial
Revolution and capitalism. It is reasonable to hope that
with China’s rapid rise, with its domestic market larger than North America
and Europe and Russia and Japan all combined and its non-interventionist
pragmatism in international and geopolitical relations, may mean one step
closer to reach the “goal” or “historical end” set (implicitly) by the
English Industrial Revolution—the goal of capitalism to (re)create the whole
world according its own image (affluence based on mass production), the goal
of empowering every impoverished human being on earth with “bourgeois
dignity” and material wealth, and the goal of realizing the communism ideal
of “from each according to his ability; to each according to his
need.”235 |
巨大的市場創造了對製造創新和工程奇跡的巨大需求。這就是英國在 18 世紀透過發明珍妮紡紗機和蒸汽機而超越荷蘭成為第一個工業超級大國的原因。 這也是美國在20世紀透過發明福特裝配線和互聯網超越英國成為下一個超級大國的原因。 這也是為什麼中國很可能會超越美國，成為21世紀新的超級大國，因為中國發明的技術可以再次縮小和壓平地球，比哥倫布的偉大航行曾經取得的成就高出數百個百分點。 西方的崛起，儘管規模宏偉且對人類產生巨大的影響，仍未能在幾百年來將非洲（人類的共同故鄉和起源之地）從馬爾薩斯貧困陷阱中解脫出來，這是由於西方殖民主義的遺產和國際組織（如國際貨幣基金組織和世界銀行）制定的錯誤發展政策。但中國為發展中世界提供了一種基於工業革命和資本主義的「老」鐵的邏輯的「新」發展模式。 有理由期望，隨著中國的迅速崛起，其國內市場比北美、歐洲、俄羅斯和日本總和還要龐大，以及其在國際和地緣政治關係上的非干預實用主義，或許意味著更接近實現（隱含的）英國工業革命所設定的「目標」或「歷史終點」─資本主義的目標，即根據其自身的形象（基於大規模生產的富裕）重新創造整個世界，使地球上每一位貧困的人都能擁有「資產階級的尊嚴」和物質富裕，實現共產主義理念的目標，「各盡所能，各取所需」。235 |
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The prospects of China’s rise,
based on the iron logic of the Industrial Revolution and capitalism, explains
why the legendary investor and capitalist People worry about Chinese
economic growth and whether it can be sustained. It is worth remembering that
in the U.S. in the 19th century, we had 15 depressions, a horrid civil war,
few human rights, little rule of law, periodic massacres, you could buy and
sell congressmen (you can still buy and sell congressmen, but in those days
they were cheap) and in 1907 the whole system was bankrupt. This was just as the United
States was on the verge of becoming the most powerful country in the
world.”236 They are built to serve and
created to implement long-term development goals and to protect the fruits of
development. Different development strategies call for different institutions.
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基於工業革命和資本主義的鐵邏輯，中國崛起的前景解釋了為什麼傳奇投資者和資本家吉姆·羅傑斯（Jim Rogers）一再表示，「正如未來屬於19世紀的英國人和20世紀的美國人一樣，中國人將擁有21世紀...... 人們擔心中國的經濟增長以及它是否能夠持續下去。值得記住的是，在 19 世紀的美國，我們有 15 次大蕭條、一場可怕的內戰、很少的人權、很少的法治、定期的大屠殺，你可以買賣國會議員（你仍然可以買賣國會議員，但在那些日子里他們很便宜），1907 年整個系統破產了。 這恰逢美國即將成為世界上最強大的國家。236 羅傑斯先生可能沒有經濟理論來支援他對中國的大膽主張和樂觀評估，但他是基於他基本的商業直覺、歷史常識和一生的全球投資經驗做出這些主張的。237 制度是為實現長期發展目標和保護髮展成果而建立的。不同的發展戰略需要不同的機構。 |
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The rule of law and the notion
of private property are ancient, but their specific forms and content have
evolved over time according to the mode of production, the structure of the
economy, and the goals of development. The Law of Moses specified only
a dozen rules, but modern civil and corporate laws specify millions of rules
(as endogenous responses to business practices and social-economic
changes). Anticorruption is the endogenous
demand of any societies at any stage of development, because corruption (i)
undermines the government’s (or the ruling class’s) legitimacy, (ii) distorts
the fundamental notion of fairness— one of the key elements to organize a
civilization and society, (iii) goes against social norms and the rule of law
regardless of autocracy or democracy,238 (iv) endangers social-political
order, and (v) makes the state and national interests prone to foreign
(economic, political, or military) intrusions or invasions. However, anticorruption (enforcing the rule
of law) is extremely costly. This is why, historically, only
industrial capitalism at the critical juncture of finishing the second
industrial revolution—with its mighty financial and informational
technological capabilities in surveillance and with both the middle-income
working class and the government becoming critical stakeholders of the fruits
of industrialization based on increasingly intertwined vested interests in an
highly organic and organized society based on nationwide division of labor
and specialization—has been able to seriously combat and contain corruption
to a level that is no longer endemic and does not pose a serious threat to
further economic growth and prosperity.
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法治和私有財產的概念由來已久，但其具體形式和內容隨著生產方式、經濟結構和發展目標的不同而演變。 〈摩西律法〉只規定了十幾條規則，但現代民法和公司法規定了數百萬條規則（作為對商業慣例和社會經濟變化的內生反應）。 反腐敗是任何社會在任何發展階段的內生需求，因為腐敗（i）破壞了政府（或統治階級）的合法性，（ii）扭曲了公平的基本概念——這是組織文明和社會的關鍵要素之一，（iii）違背了社會規範和法治，無論專制還是民主，238 （iv）危害社會政治秩序，（v）使國家和民族利益容易受到外國（經濟、政治或軍事）入侵或侵略。然而，反腐敗（執行法治）的成本非常高。 正因為如此，從歷史上看，只有工業資本主義在完成第二次工業革命的關鍵時刻——憑藉其強大的金融和資訊技術能力進行監控，中等收入工人階級和政府都成為工業化成果的關鍵利益相關者，這些成果的基礎是建立在全國分工和專業化基礎上的高度有機和有組織的社會中日益交織在一起的既得利益能夠認真打擊和遏制腐敗，使其不再流行，不會對進一步的經濟增長和繁榮構成嚴重威脅。 |
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Hence, if rampant corruption
throughout the 19th and the early 20th centuries did not stop the United
States from finishing its second industrial revolution and rising to global
economic and political power, why would it stop today’s China given that
China is already in the middle of finishing its second industrial revolution
and already become a highly specialized society with every part of its
industrial apparatus and organs interdependent so much so that every social
class’s self-interest hinges critically on the continuous prosperity of the
nation which is endangered by corruption?
The time always comes to call for the industrial-age rule of law and
new forms of accountability of the government in any nation as the industrial
revolution unfolds and escalates.240 Modern Western institutions were
set to protect the fruits of the Industrial Revolution, which made all social
classes’ vested interests intertwined and mutually indispensable. Such
institutions became desirable and affordable because of the Industrial
Revolution. Universal suffrage, the rule of
law, protection against expropriation, the accountability of the government,
the capacity to provide social order and other public goods, the
redistribution of political power and mobility of social classes, the decay
of religion in its power of organizing societies and reining over the meaning
of life and family structures, the ability to defend equality and the modern
notion of human rights (including minority and children and women’s rights)
and reinforce distributional fairness across sexes and races…, these have all
been the consequence of the Industrial Revolution, the effects of unified
impersonal market exchanges, the outcomes of the rise of the middle income
class as stakeholders of the economy and the hundreds-fold appreciation of
the value of labor relative to capital, and the social-political response to
capitalistic mass production and mass distribution. |
因此，如果整個19世紀和20世紀初猖獗的腐敗沒有阻止美國完成第二次工業革命並崛起為全球經濟和政治大國，那麼，鑒於中國已經處於完成第二次工業革命的中間，並且已經成為一個高度專業化的社會，其工業機器和器官的每個部分都相互依存，以至於每個社會階級的自身利益關鍵取決於國家的持續繁榮，而國家正受到腐敗的威脅？隨著工業革命的展開和升級，任何國家都必須呼籲工業時代的法治和政府的新形式的問責制。240 現代西方制度旨在保護工業革命的成果，這使得所有社會階層的既得利益交織在一起，相互不可或缺。由於工業革命，這些機構變得可取且負擔得起。 普選權、法治、防止徵用、政府的問責制、提供社會秩序和其他公共物品的能力、政治權力的重新分配和社會階層的流動性、宗教在組織社會和控制生活意義和家庭結構方面的力量的衰敗、捍衛平等和現代人權概念（包括少數群體、兒童和婦女權利）的能力，並加強和加強跨性別和種族的分配公平......，這些都是工業革命的結果，統一的非個人市場交換的影響，中等收入階層作為經濟利益相關者的崛起的結果，勞動價值相對於資本的百倍升值，以及社會政治對資本主義大規模生產和大規模分配的反應。 |
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Genuine social equality is
achieved and based ultimately on the ability to participate in an impersonal
mass consumer culture sustained by mass production, not on the rhetoric or
mere declarations that “all men are created equal.” Capitalistic mass production is
the greatest invention of mankind since the discovery of agriculture, because
it is rooted in the principle of the division of labor (impersonal and
interpersonal cooperation) and the economies of scale, thus with tremendous
productive externalities and spillover effects coming from and feeding back
on all individuals’ actions. It is only through capitalistic
production based on the division of labor (including mental labor) and the
economies of scale that human societies can achieve affluence in goods and
services and knowledge and information and enter the stage of a welfare
state. Hence, capitalistic production is not and has never been a zero-sum
game, not even during the age of colonialism and imperialism. Therefore, just like the rise of
the United States has greatly benefited (instead of diminished, in absolute
terms) the United Kingdom and the welfare of the English working class, the
rise of China has also and will continue to benefit (instead of diminish) the
United States and the welfare of American people. For example, total American
exports to China since 1983 have increased by a stunning 50-folds in merely
30 years, yet its domestic inflation rate remained exceptionally low for
decades, thanks to China’s rise. |
真正的社會平等是實現的，最終建立在參與由大規模生產維持的非個人大眾消費文化的能力之上，而不是僅僅基於「人人生而平等」的言辭或宣言。 資本主義大規模生產是人類自農業發現以來最偉大的發明，因為它植根於（非個人和人際合作的）勞動分工和規模經濟的原則，因此具有巨大的生產外部性和溢出效應，這些效應來自並反饋給所有個人的行為。 只有透過以勞動分工（包括腦力勞動）為基礎的資本主義生產和規模經濟，人類社會才能實現商品和服務、知識和資訊的富裕，才能進入福利國家階段。因此，資本主義生產不是，也從來都不是零和遊戲，即使在殖民主義和帝國主義時代也是如此。 因此，正如美國的崛起極大地使英國和英國工人階級的福利受益（而不是絕對減少）一樣，中國的崛起也已經並將繼續使美國和美國人民的福利受益（而不是減少）。例如，自1983年以來，美國對中國的出口總額在短短30年內增長了驚人的50倍，但由於中國的崛起，其國內通貨膨脹率幾十年來一直保持在極低水準。 |
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By the same token, the possible
rise of India and Sub-Saharan Africa will be even more spectacular in due
time. But to make that happen, correct procedures of development, right
sequences of development, and proper strategies of development, based on the
historical logic of the Industrial Revolution (outlined in the NST)
matter. The last shall be first, The
slow shall be fast, Inches will be miles, Provided the road taken is right. |
出於同樣的原因，印度和撒哈拉以南非洲的可能崛起將在適當的時候更加壯觀。但要做到這一點，正確的發展程式、正確的發展順序和適當的發展戰略，基於工業革命的歷史邏輯（在NST中概述）很重要。 只要所採取的道路是正確的，慢發終必先至，千里始於足下，。 |
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