20231115 對藍白合的觀察 An weird agreement just hours before Biden-Xi's summit

【雙魚之論】英文拷到 G / D 找中文翻譯

The Kuomintang (KMT) and the People’s Party (P’sP) reached an agreement for the 2024 Presidential campaign today. They have decided to select one as the joint president candidate and the other as the vice president candidate from their respective presidential candidates through polls conducted from November 7 to 17. The composition of the cabinet, following the campaign's victory, will be based on the seats each party secures in the Legislative Yuan.

Observers view this agreement as a concession by Ko Wen-je, the presidential candidate of the P’sP. Given the P’sP's limited resources and the substantial budget required for the campaign, such a concession is deemed natural. Ko, as the leader of a smaller party, lacks the financial capacity to sustain a presidential candidacy. Conversely, if Ko were to win the campaign independently, it could spell disaster for the subsequent government.

For the first time since 1950, the KMT, a party originating from China, has nominated a native Taiwanese, Hou You-Yi, as the Presidential candidate. This is a significant development, indicating the KMT's success in localizing its influence. Consequently, many older and conservative KMT party members are hesitant to accept the outcome.

From an international perspective, the timing may be the most crucial factor, as the agreement was reached just hours before the Biden-Xi summit at the San Francisco APEC and two days before AIT Chairperson Laura Rosenberger warned against Beijing's intervention in Taiwan's presidential campaign.