The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan CSIS 20230109

【縛雞之論】英文拷到 G / D 找中文翻譯
An over-self-confident news presenter of Era Night Report concluded "oh my God, there will be serial battles and take time if China invaded Taiwan" when she saw a report with the title "The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan" by CSIS. That conclusion shows she does not know the military issues at all.
The War game is not a crystal ball or fortune-teller that exposes things in the future. Instead, it suggests our weak points, as many as the better. We then have time to make it up before the real war comes.
Considering how complicated war is, a war game can only predict how a war starts, not what will happen next.

The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan    CSIS 20230109

CSIS developed a wargame for a Chinese amphibious invasion of Taiwan and ran it 24 times. In most scenarios, the United States/Taiwan/Japan defeated a conventional amphibious invasion by China and maintained an autonomous Taiwan. However, this defense came at high cost. The United States and its allies lost dozens of ships, hundreds of aircraft, and tens of thousands of servicemembers. Taiwan saw its economy devastated. Further, the high losses damaged the U.S. global position for many years. China also lost heavily, and failure to occupy Taiwan might destabilize Chinese Communist Party rule. Victory is therefore not enough. The United States needs to strengthen deterrence immediately.  CSIS 為中國兩棲入侵台灣開發了兵棋推演，並重複了 24 次。在大多數情況下，美國/台灣/日本擊敗了中國的傳統兩棲侵略並維持了台灣自治。然而，這種防禦付出了高昂的代價。美國及其盟國損失了數十艘船隻、數百架飛機和數萬名軍人。台灣的經濟遭受重創。此外，高額損失多年來損害了美國的全球地位。中國也損失慘重，不能佔領台灣可能會動搖中國共產黨的統治。 因此，勝利是不夠的。美國需要立即加強威懾。

This project was funded by a grant from the Smith Richardson Foundation.