誰，不顧時代變遷，又在重操故計？

【縛雞之論】英文拷到 G / D 找中文翻譯
2011.09.16歐巴馬的國安顧問Tom Donilon透過〈金融時報〉搞過蔡英文。指稱蔡英文「當選台灣總統，海峽兩岸關係將可能再度緊張。」但發言人蕭美琴說：「美方的評論與美國官員在會見中對我們所說的不符」。現在，誰，不顧時代變遷，又在重操故計？

AIT：期待與賴清德合作 促進共享民主價值與利益    中央社 20230119

外媒近日報導，日前剛當選民進黨主席的副總統賴清德過去所提「務實的台獨工作者」論述，恐引起美方憂慮而難以放心。美國在台協會今天回應中央社詢問指出，美方期待與賴清德合作，促進雙方共享的民主價值與共同利益。

賴清德：務實認定台灣已是主權獨立國家 沒必要再宣布獨立

美國在台協會（AIT）今天就中央社記者的詢問，以聲明回應指出，「AIT祝賀賴清德在民進黨主席選舉中勝出。我們期待與賴主席合作，促進我們共享的民主價值和利益」。

賴清德15日當選民進黨主席，英國金融時報16日報導，賴清德很可能代表民進黨競逐2024總統大選，但賴清德過去所提「務實的台獨工作者」論述，已引發美國擔憂，報導引述美官員形容賴清德的兩岸立場「令人難以放心」。

報導引述華府智庫「德國馬歇爾基金會」印太計畫主任葛來儀（Bonnie Glaser）的話指出，相較總統蔡英文競選時，美國對蔡英文的了解比對賴清德更多，因為賴清德在出任行政院長、副總統之前，並未擔任任何知名的全國政府層級職位。

報導指出，當年還是律師的蔡英文曾協助談判，幫助台灣加入世界貿易組織（WTO），相對來說，賴清德的主要支持者在南部，支持台灣獨立的情緒濃厚，賴清德本人是醫生背景，2017、2020年先後出任行政院長、副總統，此前他擔任過台南市選區立委及台南市長，他因個人魅力及拒絕政治酬庸而廣受推崇。

金融時報的報導指稱，外國對賴清德的印象主要建立在他自稱的「台獨工作者」，他後續改稱自己是「務實」的台獨工作者，「但是傷害已經造成」。

報導引述，前白宮國安會台灣、中國事務主任簡以榮（Ivan Kanapathy）表示，「華府有人擔憂他的經驗及他在國際及兩岸事務的幕僚」。

不過，美台商業協會（USTBC）會長韓儒伯（Rupert Hammond-Chambers）提出不同看法，他認為，對賴清德傾向獨立的擔憂，主要是因不了解台灣內部政治論述，他認為賴清德現在「已經變得更謹慎」。

 

 

Taiwan presidential contender sparks US concerns over China tensions    FT 20230118

Victory for vice-president Lai Ching-te in ruling party poll foreshadows turbulent year in cross-Strait ties

Taiwan’s next presidential election is still a year away, but for Lai Ching-te, the vice-president and likely candidate of the ruling party, the campaign to convince the US that he is a safe pair of hands starts now. On Sunday, President Tsai Ing-wen’s ruling Democratic Progressive party elected Lai its chair, following Tsai’s resignation as party leader after the DPP’s defeat in local polls. With Tsai’s grip over her party weakened long before her final presidential term ends next year, DPP politicians expect Lai to become the party’s uncontested candidate to succeed her. That moves to centre stage a man virtually unknown outside Taiwan and often described as “deep green” — shorthand for more radical pro-independence leanings — foreshadowing an even more turbulent year in cross-Strait relations given China’s unprecedented military threats against Taiwan. In recent opinion polls, Lai is slightly behind Hou Yu-ih, the popular mayor of the country’s largest municipality from the Kuomintang (KMT), the more China-friendly opposition party. But Lai is seen as the clear winner of a presidential race if the KMT nominates its chair Eric Chu. “The United States doesn’t know Lai as well as we knew Tsai when she ran for president because he hasn’t been in any notable national positions before premier and VP,” said Bonnie Glaser, managing director of Indo-Pacific Program at the German Marshall Fund of the US. In contrast to Tsai, a trade lawyer who helped negotiate Taiwan’s accession to the World Trade Organization before running for office, Lai’s main support is in the south, the heartland of pro-independence sentiment. A physician by training, he served as a lawmaker and as mayor of Tainan, a DPP stronghold, before becoming premier in 2017 and vice-president in 2020. Lai’s career has been boosted by his charisma and an uncompromising push against pork barrel politics. But foreign perceptions of him have been shaped by the fact that he once described himself as a “political worker for Taiwan independence”. Lai subsequently added the attribute “pragmatic”. But the damage was done. “There are concerns in Washington about his experience and that of his advisers on international or cross-Strait affairs,” said Ivan Kanapathy, a senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and a former National Security Council official in the Trump White House. A US government official said it was “difficult to be reassured when you hear him declare that Taiwan is an independent nation”. Lai has repeatedly stated publicly that Taiwan is a sovereign, independent country, and includes this in his talking points in closed-door meetings with foreign counterparts. Taiwan’s vice-president Lai Ching-te is less familiar to diplomats abroad than President Tsai Ing-wen, who many expect him to stand to succeed for the ruling party © Annabelle Chih/SOPA Images/Shutterstock However, both DPP politicians and foreign observers with deep knowledge of Taiwan caution against reading this language as signalling the intention to formally declare independence — a move to which China has threatened to respond with war. Lai’s stance is in line with the position the DPP has held for more than 20 years, a position that made it electable for mainstream voters: that there is no need to declare independence because the country is independent already, and that its future must be determined by the Taiwanese people. “Anxiety about Lai being pro-independence is partly due to a lack of understanding of Taiwan’s domestic political discourse,” said Rupert Hammond-Chambers, president of the US-Taiwan Business Council, a lobby group. “The apprehension many express about him reflects more latent concern about the deep green every time an election comes around. To be fair, Lai has played in that pool, but he is becoming more careful now.” Tsai is a case in point. After she visited Washington in 2011 during her first presidential bid — which she lost against the incumbent Ma Ying-jeou from the KMT — the Obama administration expressed doubts that she might not be willing or able to keep cross-Strait relations stable. But since she took office in 2016, Tsai has won Washington’s trust with a more prudent approach to China and more reliable communication with the US than most past Taiwanese leaders, while US-China relations deteriorated over Beijing’s increasing belligerence. “Back then, Taiwan was viewed as the questionable actor, but now it’s all about containing China,” said an American observer involved in Taiwan policy in the past. The vice-president is already trying to build an international profile and allay US concerns. In recent months, Tsai has sent him on a few foreign trips and included him in more national security meetings. Lai has built a relationship with Sandra Oudkirk, the US quasi-ambassador in Taiwan. “He understands that as a mayor he could express his own views, but as a president he would be confined by a different set of limits,” said a person who advised him on foreign relations. “He knows that he will have to [be] more pragmatic, and so we are seeing an evolving Lai Ching-te now.” But although the vice-president closely hews to Tsai’s line in China affairs, there are differences in tone. In meetings with US counterparts, including with a delegation of former officials US president Joe Biden sent to Taiwan last March, Lai has called on America to abandon its ambiguous stance on whether it would come to Taiwan’s aid if the country were attacked by China — a desire many in Tsai’s administration share but avoid expressing too candidly. Recommended Anders Fogh Rasmussen Taiwan must not suffer the same fate as Ukraine Biden has said repeatedly that the US would defend Taiwan against a Chinese attack, but the White House has appeared to keep Washington’s position ambiguous by stating that its policy had not changed. Lai’s statements that Taiwan is an independent country also slightly differ from those of Tsai, who typically pledges to defend its sovereignty and also mentions the Republic of China, the country’s official name, seen as a reassurance that she views a formal declaration of independence as unnecessary. These nuances may be enough to keep Washington’s concerns alive. “US-China policy is on the move, and Taiwan policy will be more low-profile as the Biden administration tries to find ways to work with the Chinese,” Hammond-Chambers said. “It is possible that there will be a sharp, direct conversation with Lai at some point.”