新論述？一國兩制的替代方案

【縛雞之論】英文拷到 G / D 找中文翻譯
A new plan for Taiwan to substitute the outdated “One country, two systems”?
No matter what plan Wang Huning, the fourth in line of the CPC, proposes shortly concerning Taiwan, it is a “domestic” one, with no intention to convince the international community because the sacred promise toward Hong Kong and Macao, the “One country, two systems” has been torn down by Xi since 2018. Xi’s move wages a political war against the late Chairman Deng, who raised the “One country, two systems.”

日媒：習近平委由王滬寧 擘劃一國兩制替代方案    中央社 20230128

日本媒體披露，由於中共領導人習近平對香港採取強硬立場致台灣民意驟變，顯然北京高層已知一國兩制行不通，因此習重用被譽為「國師」的王滬寧，由他擘畫取代一國兩制的兩岸統一新論述。

「日經亞洲」（Nikkei Asia）26日報導，確保香港高度自治的一國兩制方案，原本是由已故領導人鄧小平倡議，更是中共訴諸對台和平統一的重要方略。

不過自習近平主政並下令對香港採取強硬立場後，台灣民意驟變，顯然一國兩制再也行不通，中共高層也心知肚明。

儘管如此，對於習而言這並非壞事，反而給予他良機得以捨棄鄧時代延續至今的一國兩制方案，以便制定屬於習主政時期的統一台灣方略。

熟悉中共內情的消息來源透露，若干分析指出，中國憑藉武力統一台灣的威脅迫在眉睫，但事實並非如此，首要是中共將先提出新的論述取代一國兩制，以此對台施壓。

這位消息人士研判，新論述將成為衡量對台統戰進展的指標，並藉此決定是否有必要動武。

但因當前兩岸關係非常緊張，難以預料中共何時拍板新的統一台灣方略，何況若新戰略僅被視為對台灣構成威脅，恐怕適得其反。

不具名權威人士指出，宣布新的對台統一戰略時機尚未確定，可能還得經歷一段時日，中國目前別無選擇，只能暫時採取觀望態度。

至於由誰來扛起擘劃統一新論述的重任？習近平則是委由王滬寧。

報導說，中共去年10月召開20大前，7席政治局常委中李克強、汪洋與王滬寧都是67歲，依據「七上八下」的不成文慣例還無需走人，經20大人事改組，這3人卻只有王滬寧留下來。

消息來源透露，由於習近平仍意圖尋求第4任，這回中共高層人事變革透露他布局的政治方略，那就是「王滬寧肩負為兩岸統一奠定基礎的重任」。

王滬寧是唯一學者出身的政治局常委，他曾在復旦大學任教國際政治，被視為中共意識形態的國師。江澤民的三個代表，胡錦濤的科學發展觀及習近平的新時代中國特色社會主義等論述，據信都是出自他的手筆。

中國官媒新華社18日報導，中國全國政協常委會公佈新一屆全國政協委員名單，其中包含在中共黨內排名第4的王滬寧，依照慣例他可望在3月接替汪洋擔任全國政協主席。

全國政協是中共最高的政治協商機構，主責統戰，包括拉攏台灣，如此王滬寧也有望擔綱中央對台工作領導小組副組長，這是中共處理台灣議題的最高決策機構，一般由中共總書記擔任小組組長。

此外，並未因「七上八下」限制而卸任反受重用的中共前外長王毅晉升政治局委員，並擔綱中共外交一把手中央外事辦主任，固然他得就外交事務向習近平負責，不過凡涉及對台工作的範疇，他也得向王滬寧報告。

這是因為預料王毅也將擔任對台工作領導小組秘書長，而王滬寧則是副組長，如此一來，中共的對台工作將由二王挑大梁。

 

Analysis: Xi puts top brain in charge of Taiwan unification strategy    NILLEI ASIA 20230126

Wang Huning tasked with creating alternative to 'one country, two systems'

A source familiar with the inner workings of the Chinese Communist Party has pulled back the curtain on General Secretary Xi Jinping's leadership reshuffle last October.

Why were some leaders retained to serve another term, while others were shown the door?

On the Politburo Standing Committee, there were three members who were 67 years old, technically under the retirement age of 68. All three of them could have stayed, but only one did.

The ones who stepped down were No. 2, Premier Li Keqiang and No. 4 Wang Yang. Only No. 5 Wang Huning stayed on and was promoted in the new lineup.

The source noted that this top leadership change hints at Xi's political strategy as he aims for a fourth term. "Wang Huning's mission is to lay the groundwork for Taiwan unification."

If Wang Huning was retained to handle the Taiwan file, this would be the result of the failure of the "one country, two systems" in Hong Kong.  

After massive pro-democracy demonstrations shook Hong Kong in 2019, Beijing quickly enacted a national security law for the special administrative region. It spelled the end of a free Hong Kong.

Over a million people took part in a mass protest in Hong Kong on June 9, 2019. (Photo by Takeshi Kihara) 

The "one country, two systems" formula, which guaranteed a high degree of autonomy for Hong Kong, was originally proposed in the era of paramount leader Deng Xiaoping as an important strategy for the future peaceful unification with Taiwan.

But after Xi rose to power and ordered a hardline stance on Hong Kong, Taiwanese public opinion changed dramatically. Clearly, the "one country, two systems" game plan will not work any more. 

The top leaders know this. Xi himself has stopped referring to the formula as a means of achieving Taiwan unification. At the Chinese Communist Party's 20th national congress, where he secured a third term, he did not read out the portion about "one country, two systems" in relation to Taiwan.

For Xi, this is not all bad. It gives him a golden opportunity to ditch a Deng-era legacy and work out his own Taiwan unification strategy. And for this crucial task, he has tapped Wang Huning. 

On Jan. 18, state-run Xinhua News Agency announced the new members of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, the country's top political advisory body. The inclusion of Wang Huning signaled that he would assume the role of CPPCC chairman, succeeding Wang Yang.

One of the CPPCC's role is to set strategies for China's "united front work," including drawing Taiwan to the Chinese side.

Under this framework, Wang Huning is also expected to become the deputy director of the Central Leading Group for Taiwan Affairs, the party's top decision-making body on China's Taiwan policy. The top director is Xi.

Wang Yi, right, will report to Wang Huning on security policies involving Taiwan unification and relations with the U.S. (Source photo by Reuters) 

So what role will Wang play in formulating a Taiwan policy during Xi's third term?

One source knowledgeable of China-Taiwan relations noted that Wang will be tasked with writing a theoretical unification strategy fit for the Xi era. 

"One may assume that a threat of China using force to unify Taiwan is imminent, but this is not the case. The first step is to launch a new theory that will replace Deng's one country, two systems. Then pressure will be put on Taiwan based on it," the source explained.

The source expects this theory to become a yardstick with which to measure progress and to decide if a military operation is necessary.

Wang is a rare politician. He has served three successive supreme leaders -- Jiang Zemin, who died recently at the age of 96; Hu Jintao, 80; and Xi, 69 -- each time asked to stay on as the leader's brain.

On security issues, Xi is said to respect the advice of the seasoned Wang. 

When Xi held talks with the rambunctious Donald Trump, Wang always sat beside him to offer advice. Nobody knew what Trump might say, and Xi needed somebody who could think quickly.

Wang's experience in writing important documents related to security and his past as a professor of international politics at Fudan University prepared him well.

The ability to write in ways that pleases the top leader of the time, however unclear it may seem to outsiders, is perhaps the most important skill to have in the Communist Party.

Chinese President Xi Jinping meets representatives of officers and soldiers of the command center, conveys sincere greetings to all of its members and delivers an important speech during his inspection to the CMC joint operations command center, on Nov. 8, 2022   © Xinhua/AP

Wang Huning will be supported by Wang Yi, the 69-year-old former foreign minister, who was promoted to the Politburo. His promotion went against the party's traditional retirement rule that stipulates that officials do not assume new higher posts after they are 68.

Wang Yi also became director of the party's Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission, making him China's top-ranking diplomat.

Needless to say, the top diplomat reports to Xi on foreign affairs and security matters. But for policies involving Taiwan unification and relations with the U.S., Wang Huning is also in Wang Yi's reporting line. 

This is because Wang Yi will become secretary general of the Central Leading Group for Taiwan Affairs, where Wang Huning will serve as deputy director. Wang Yi once served as the director of the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, China's government.

As a Politburo Standing Committee member, Wang Huning in one of China's top seven and has a much higher level of authority than Wang Yi, a Politburo member. 

Xi wants to chalk up an achievement in regard to Taiwan at any cost over the next five years, which would help his quest to seek a fourth term as head of the party in 2027.

China's policies related to Taiwan will be spearheaded by these two Wangs. 

Taiwan's Vice President William Lai assumes the chairmanship of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party in Taipei, Taiwan, Jan. 18. 

Taiwan will hold an election next January to choose President Tsai Ing-wen's successor. Tsai will retire in May that year after serving two four-year terms. She cannot run for a third term.

The ruling Democratic Progressive Party and opposition Chinese Nationalist Party, also known as the Kuomintang, or KMT, have already entered campaign mode.

Tsai resigned as head of the DPP after the party suffered a resounding defeat in recent local elections. The DPP chose 63-year-old Vice President Lai Ching-te, also known as William Lai, as its new head. He has become the frontrunner in the presidential race.

Unlike local elections, which are affected by regional political structures, Taiwanese voters choose their president based on his or her policy toward China, and the DPP and KMT are already locked in a fierce war of words.

The DPP warns that if the KMT were to come to power, Taiwan would become "a Hong Kong without freedom." The KMT has responded by saying that if the DPP remains in power, Taiwan will be embroiled in war. 

Xi acquired ultimate power in October. While the use of force against Taiwan is not deemed imminent, Xi could launch an offensive at the snap of his fingers.

Last summer, China held military exercises around Taiwan and fired missiles. The display of force came in response to then U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to the island. Since then, Taiwan has become increasingly alarmed at the possibility of a military invasion by China.

Russia's all-out invasion of Ukraine has also shocked the island.

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is said to be preparing to visit Taiwan.   © AP

China hopes to see the independence-leaning DPP ousted from power in 2024. But as relations between China and Taiwan are extremely tense, it is difficult to decide upon the timing of working out a new Taiwan unification strategy.

If the content of the new strategy is taken as merely a threat against Taiwan, it could backfire. Although China wants to support the KMT, it could end up saving the DPP.

"China will have no choice but to take a wait-and-see attitude for the time being," one pundit said. "The timing of announcing a new Taiwan unification strategy is probably undetermined. It may be still a long way off."

Now Kevin McCarthy, who succeeded Pelosi as House speaker, is said to be preparing to visit Taiwan. 

Some think such a visit would come as early as April. If McCarthy makes the trip, there is a strong possibility he would provoke China to again encircle with military drills.

During the military exercises after Pelosi's visit, China fired five missiles into Japan's exclusive economic zone near Yonaguni Island, Okinawa Prefecture. The island in the East China Sea, Japan's westernmost point, sits a little more than 150 kilometers from Taipei.

April would be a time when the nomination race begins to heat up for both of Taiwan's parties. 

If McCarthy, a Republican, does visit Taiwan, how might the trip affect Taiwan's presidential battle? How might China's new Taiwan team respond? And how would Taiwanese voters react?