Pelosi不行，高階軍官行？別鬧了！NYT

【縛雞之論】英文拷到 G / D 找中文翻譯
The executive branch is not above the legislative branch in the “trias politica,” or the horizontal separation of powers system. It is exactly the essential point the one-party system state or communist China can never comprehend.
In the article “Will China Move on Taiwan?,” the author presents two better ways for the U.S. to support Taiwan instead of the visit of the Speaker of the House of Representatives. They could be: sending a top military officer to Taiwan or concluding a bilateral trade agreement with Taiwan.
I have to say that the author's suggestions are in contrast to his premises -- the executive power has no power to instruct anyone in the legislative branch to do something.
And what is more, Beijing will strongly oppose the visit of a top military officers at any rate because CCP is turning any “issue” into a “principle” by showing its long-lasting anger. So, what is the point?

白宮指拜習本週通話將談台灣 CNN披露裴洛西正邀美兩大黨人士訪台    自由 20220727

美國國家安全會議發言人柯比26日在1場記者簡報會中表明，即將進行的美國總統拜登和中國國家主席習近平之電話會談，會談到台灣議題。

他另對美國有線電視新聞網（CNN）主播柏曼（John Berman）直言，北京在民主黨美國聯邦眾議院議長裴洛西可能的訪問台灣行程前夕所說的「逐步升級」言論，「顯然無濟於事、大可不必」。CNN於26日引述對裴洛西此次出訪計畫知情的消息人士報導，她正計畫在接下來幾週內訪台，做為其亞洲行的1站。她並已邀請民主黨及共和黨人士隨行。

路透27日報導，柯比說拜、習兩人屆時將談到台灣緊張情勢、俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭、如何管控美中競爭。拜登25日透露，兩人本週可望通電話，這將是他們第5度「熱線」。柯比還說，在拜習通電話前，預料拜登不會就是否解除美國對中國商品課徵貿易關稅的政策做出決定。

拜登及其執政團隊已持續論辯是否要藉由解除部分的對中關稅，當作提振美國經濟的方法之一。柯比提到，他不認為關稅議題將是兩人這次通話的一大重點。柯比坦言，美中關係存在緊張的議題，但仍有可能可以相互合作的領域，諸如氣候變遷。柯比並強調，拜登欲透過此次通話，確定美中的溝通管道依然暢通。

美國「國會山莊報」（The Hill）26日則報導，柯比另對柏曼說，裴洛西根本還沒正式宣布其將訪台，美國亦未改變其有關兩國的政策。中國外交部發言人趙立堅25日在該部例行記者會中指稱，有關裴洛西可能訪台一事，北京正「嚴陣以待」，若美方「一意孤行」，中方「必將採取堅定有力措施，捍衛國家主權和領土完整」。

華府智庫「德國馬歇爾基金會」（GMF）亞洲計畫主任葛來儀23日亦曾推文寫道，中國誤以為拜登能夠阻止裴洛西訪台。CNN則引述多名拜登政府官員報導，美國國安官員正私下設法使裴洛西相信，值此高度敏感時刻，其訪台可能造成的風險。

五角大廈官員與白宮官員上週已向裴洛西就台灣和該地區升高的緊張情勢做簡報。除了她此行的安全，還有未來幾個月中共就將召開第20次全國代表大會（20大），中國政府最近卻公布其近兩年來最差的經濟表現，習近平會發覺自己處於一個政治敏感的境地，可能利用回應裴洛西訪台的方式，達到在國內政治上得分。雖然拜登幕僚知道習近平可能會有哪些回應的方式，惟並不確定他將選擇「哪個方向」。

另一方面，紐約時報「交易錄」（DealBook）題為「中國會對台灣動手嗎？」（Will China Move on Taiwan?）一文寫道，若干分析家認為，對美國而言，欲表明對台灣的支持，有比裴洛西率代表團訪台造成的風險小的方式。華府可以派一名美軍高階將領、或與台灣簽署一項雙邊貿易協定，可以有助台灣降低對中國的經濟依存。

 Will China Move on Taiwan?

An escalation from Beijing would have far-reaching economic consequences.

By Andrew Ross Sorkin, Vivian Giang, Stephen Gandel, Lauren Hirsch, Ephrat Livni and Jenny Gross

July 26, 2022

China’s threat against Taiwan

Although U.S. officials say they are not aware of any specific piece of intelligence indicating that China may move soon against Taiwan, the Biden administration has become increasingly anxious that this could happen. One big fear is that Beijing will cut off access to all or part of the Taiwan Strait, through which U.S. naval ships regularly pass. Any escalation in tension between China and Taiwan would have far-reaching consequences for the global economy and businesses.

The internal worries have sharpened in recent days, as the administration works to dissuade House Speaker Nancy Pelosi from going through with a proposed visit to Taiwan next month, write The Times’s Edward Wong, David E. Sanger and Amy Qin. Some analysts say there are less risky ways for the U.S. to demonstrate support for Taiwan than having Pelosi visit. Instead, Washington could send a top military officer or sign a bilateral trade agreement, which could help the island reduce its economic reliance on Beijing. Chinese officials have denounced Pelosi’s plans and threatened retaliation.

The risks to Taiwan from Chinese aggression have gained urgency since Russia’s attacks on Ukraine. And Chinese officials are acutely aware that the Biden administration has been applying lessons learned from the Russian invasion by pushing Taiwan to order missiles and smaller arms for asymmetric warfare. The goal is to make sure the democratic island has enough effective armaments and defense systems to deter Chinese leaders from trying to attack it.

A Chinese invasion of Taiwan also has the potential to cause a national security crisis for the U.S. If China cuts off exports of semiconductors from Taiwan, the U.S. military, which relies on them, would face a critical problem. A single firm, the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, supplies more than 90 percent of the global supply of the most advanced category of mass-produced semiconductors. In the U.S., the Senate is expected to vote on a bill that would provide more than $52 billion for companies that build semiconductor factories in the country.

The heightened tensions come as the consequences of China’s economic slowdown are being felt globally. Taiwan’s semiconductor industry is flourishing, but rising raw material prices, gummed-up supply chains made worse by lockdowns in China, and the effects of the war in Ukraine pose significant risks to the island’s economy. “All of these are global challenges, but Taiwan is at the tip — at the most important juncture of these risks,” Syaru Shirley Lin, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said at an event in May. Any further downturn in China’s economy would have an outsized effect on Taiwan, whose exports to China hit a record last year.