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2022-07-26

Pelosi to visit Taiwan? The game of big Chicken

【縛雞之論】英文拷到 G / D 找中文翻譯
When Ike visited Taiwan on June 18, 1960, the CCP shelled Kinmen (Quemoy) on the next day Ike left.
The CCP has to do something signifying its lie that Taiwan is a province of China.
This time the scenario would be similar: The PLA held a massive maneuver around Taiwan when Speaker Pelosi left Taiwan, and some PLA fighters might fly over Taiwan.
But if Pelosi postpones her trip to Taiwan, again, the U.S. would be a "big Chicken" in the eyes of the PLA.

China strengthens warning to US about Nancy Pelosi’s planned Taiwan trip     FT 20220725

Beijing alarms White House by privately suggesting possible military response to Speaker’s visit Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi plans to visit Taiwan in August.

China has issued stark private warnings to the Biden administration about the upcoming trip to Taiwan by Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the US House of Representatives, triggering alarm bells among White House officials who oppose her visit.

Six people familiar with the Chinese warnings said they were significantly stronger than the threats that Beijing has made in the past when it was unhappy with US actions or policy on Taiwan.

China has publicly threatened “strong measures” if Pelosi proceeds with the planned visit in August.  But one person said China had expressed “stronger opposition” to the US in private than before.

Several other people familiar with the situation said the private rhetoric went even further by suggesting a possible military response. Beijing has not been explicit about its potential reaction. Its military could try to block Pelosi from landing in Taiwan or take other actions to impede her visit, such as using fighter jets to intercept her US military aircraft. Several people said the White House was trying to assess whether China was making serious threats or engaging in brinkmanship in an attempt to pressure Pelosi to abandon her trip.

US national security adviser Jake Sullivan and other senior National Security Council officials oppose the trip because of the risk of escalating tension across the Taiwan Strait, according to two people familiar with the debate.

The NSC declined to comment on whether the administration had urged Pelosi to cancel her trip. John Kirby, NSC head of strategic communications, said on Friday that the NSC team provided “context, facts and geopolitical relevant information” and that the Speaker made her own decisions. The controversy over the trip has sparked concern among Washington’s allies who are worried that it could trigger a crisis between the US and China, according to several of the people with knowledge of the situation.

In another illustration of the heightened concern, US ambassador to China Nick Burns abruptly cut short a visit to Washington this week and returned to Beijing, partly because of the mounting worries about Taiwan and also to prepare for an upcoming phone call between President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping. The state department declined to comment.

Biden this week said he expected to speak to Xi by the end of the month. The leaders are expected to discuss Taiwan, which has emerged as a serious flashpoint.

China has flown an increasing number of warplanes into Taiwan’s “air defence identification zone” since Biden came to office. In May, Biden said the US would intervene militarily to defend Taiwan from any Chinese attack.

The controversy about Pelosi’s trip erupted after the Financial Times revealed that she planned to visit Taiwan to show support. The island counrty has come under rising pressure from China in the context of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has elevated fears of Chinese military action. Pelosi and her delegation will also visit Japan, Singapore, Indonesia and Malaysia.

The timing of the visit is sensitive for China, coming in the same month as the August 1 anniversary of the founding of the People’s Liberation Army. It may also coincide with the Communist party leadership’s annual conclave in the coastal resort of Beidaihe, where cadres discuss policy but also sometimes tackle power struggles.

The conclave is even more important this year as Xi will have to lay the ground for securing an unprecedented third term as party head at the Chinese Communist party’s 20th Congress in November.

Since the US normalised relations with China and switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979, it has maintained a “one China” policy under which it recognises Beijing as the sole government of China while only acknowledging Beijing’s position that Taiwan is part of China.

Beijing has accused Biden of diluting that policy by taking steps such as sending a high-profile delegation of former US officials to Taipei this year.

Pelosi would be the most senior US politician to visit Taiwan since then-Republican Speaker Newt Gingrich travelled to Taipei in 1997. Beijing is opposed to any moves that appear to confer legitimacy on Taiwan as an independent country or make the US relationship more formal.

Some experts said China erroneously believed the White House was coordinating the visit because Pelosi and Biden belong to the same party, even though Congress is independent and Biden has no power to block her travel plans. Recommended Interview Mark Milley US military chief warns of ‘significant’ increase in Chinese aircraft intercepts The Pentagon this week briefed Pelosi on the scenarios that could occur if she travelled to Taipei. Following that briefing, Biden told reporters that “the military thinks it’s not a good idea right now” for Pelosi to proceed.

But US officials have said that the military simply outlined the various risks attached to such a visit. At a news conference the following day, Pelosi said Biden had not raised any concern about the trip, which she refused to confirm. However, she indirectly referred to it by saying that Biden appeared to be pointing to some of the scenarios that could occur if she visited Taiwan.

“I think what the president was saying is [that] maybe the military was afraid our plane would get shot down or something like that by the Chinese,” she said. “I’ve heard it anecdotally, but I haven’t heard it from the president.”

Pelosi’s office did not respond to a request for comment about whether she might abandon her trip.

People briefed on national security affairs in Taipei said the risk that Beijing might markedly step up military aggression in response to Pelosi’s visit was more pronounced than last year given the rising tension. “Previously the gangster was wearing a suit, but now he is directly taking the knife out,” said a senior Taiwanese official.

 

 


5 則留言:

  1. 1945,二戰結束。10月25日,依照盟軍最高統帥麥克阿瑟元帥(麥帥)發佈的《一般命令第一號》規定,陳儀代表接受在台日軍第10方面軍司令官安藤利吉將軍的投降,並作為盟軍中國戰區蔣中正特級上將的代表,軍事接收臺灣。(From Wiki)
    1947,2月28日下午3時,陳儀宣布戒嚴,出動軍警鎮壓台灣省行政長官公署請願民眾。
    1947,5月16日,首任台灣省政府主席魏道明在台北宣誓就職,宣布解除戒嚴令。
    1949,Generalissimo 蔣介石帶 Republic of China Armed Forces 入台。
    1950,3月,Generalissimo 蔣介石在陽明山中山樓復行視事。
    1950,美國總統艾森豪訪台。
    1952,舊金山對日和約4月28日生效。
    1979,臺灣關係法生效。
    1996,台灣第一次總統民選/直選。
    1997,代表美國政府之一的美國眾議院議長訪台。

    Q1:
    放在雲程大的佔領與流亡模型,「盟軍台澎佔領地」是否轉變成「友善領土」(臺灣關係法下的 Taiwan Government) ?

    Q2:金門馬祖則是這個 Taiwan Government ,以「中華民國」實施的佔領地?

    雲程大似乎比較喜歡貼udn,我只好選擇udn來貼。
    ~~~
    波洛西若能成行,並非首位訪台的現任眾院議長;1997年,當時的國會議長金瑞契(Newt Gingrich)曾率領的國會議員訪問團,與李登輝總統會面,訪問團在台北待了數小時即離去。
    https://udn.com/news/story/7314/6471675

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    1. 先說一下,我不是喜歡UDN,我是
      1. 因為新聞綜合網站上,先出現的是UND,自由排在後。
      2. 我很注意同溫層的心理陷阱,同溫層沉浸久了,會出現情緒主導,這樣是違背開放社會、自由思考。

      敵意佔領與友善佔領,是以為和約為區分。因此,以這標準看,SFPT之後,是友善佔領。之前,當然是敵意佔領。

      GRC(the Government of the Republic of China),是新生的事物,不是1912的那個ROC。這是很重要的鑑別點。

      Newton Gingrich來訪,我有貼。
      所以,中共只要想生氣,就會生氣。這與「原則」無關,就只是「累積籌碼」而已。

      Nancy Pelosi來訪(的話),可以比照的案例,我認為不是Gingrich,而是1960.06.18,Ike來訪。
      以上

      .

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  2. 台灣戰後沒有友善佔領這種事,都是敵意佔領,佔領軍隊對台灣人做極權統治,就是敵意佔領。

    看看公務員體系,國大代表和立法院,省籍比例,就清楚對佔領區人民最小干預的原則不存在。總統直選,立院全面改選後佔領才從敵意佔領,改為形式上的佔領。

    簡單來說,和約什麼的只是結束戰爭國之間的戰爭,日本放棄台灣所有權在先,中華民國與日本結束戰爭在後,中華民國從來沒有在法理上處理與被佔領地,也就是台灣,被佔領人,也就是台灣人,之間的關係。

    實際上的敵意,要等這些來台的中國權貴死透後才結束,像是陳以信自以為統治貴族的徒子徒孫。



    某某人

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    1. 很抱歉,以上多是情緒之言

      不管喜歡或不喜歡,以和約區分「敵性佔領」與「友善佔領」,這是(至少是美國)有關佔領法的定義。

      .

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    2. 和約又沒安排中國佔領台灣,這只適用在沖繩或維和的例子。

      台灣無三咪直接適用的國際法啦,有的是本來就欠缺,有的是找個原則引申解釋的居多。

      佔領台灣的也不是美軍,佔領的中國軍隊也沒遵守美軍佔領法令,要講法律,要爭取台灣立場的最大的解釋,否則就下個香港。



      某某人

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