Royal Navy nuclear submarine technology to be shared with Australia Navy Lookout 20210916
A new trilateral security partnership between Australia, the UK and the US
(AUKUS) was announced yesterday. As part
of this new alliance, the US and UK will assist with the construction of up to 8
nuclear-powered submarines (SSNs). In this
brief commentary, we outline some of the implications.
The new alliance has been largely driven by the increasing threat from China. Australian relations with the Chinese have deteriorated considerably and the rapidly expanding PLA Navy poses a growing threat that would most effectively be countered by a powerful submarine force. With a shared language, history and value system, AUKUS makes sense and is an extension of the existing ‘Five Eyes’ intelligence-sharing agreement. At this time there is not, however, an equivalent of NATO’s Article Five that specifically commits each nation to send military forces to protect the other in event of an attack by a third party. Should China continue its rate of military expansion it is possible that it may drive Indo-Pacific nations to form a more committed NATO-like alliance with AUKUS at its heart.
AUKUS is another step for post-Brexit Britain, becoming more closely aligned with its traditional allies in the Anglosphere as it distances from former EU partners.
There is also the
potential of economic benefits for the UK at the expense of the French, at
a time when Macron is increasingly unloved by London.
The Royal Australian Navy needs to replace its conventional Collins class
(SSK) boats and under its SEA 1000 project, in April 2016 signed a A$50 billion
contract with the French Naval Group to build up to 12 Shortfin
Barracuda Block 1A boats. Any submarine construction project needs strong political
and financial backing as well as talented managers and leaders to deliver successfully.
It is one of the most difficult engineering
challenges that any nation can undertake, given the complexities of design and the
skills and infrastructure needed to build maintain and operate them. Even Spain,
with a history of submarine building has struggled to deliver their S-80 AIP SSK
and despite the UK’s strong naval heritage, encountered
major problems and delays to the Astute class.
The “Attack class” project was always
going to be problematic compared to those counties with existing domestic submarine
programmes. Effectively the Attack programme
added 3 extra hurdles: Converting the French Barracuda-class SSN design to a conventionally powered version, replacing the French
combat systems with a new US/Aus designed option
and a major technology and skills transfer from
France to Australia. HMAS attack was supposed
to have been laid down in 2023 and be the first of 3 batches of boats built over a 25-year period. The estimated cost of the programme had risen to
A$80bn by 2020 and tension began to increase with Naval
Group as the true scale of the task emerged.
The decision to build SSNs has not eliminated these issues, and in fact the cost and complexity of the task is magnified by the need
to acquire supporting nuclear infrastructure. Australia has no civil
nuclear industry to draw upon (nuclear power
was formally banned by legislation in 1998). Historically it has adopted an anti-nuclear stance
that included preventing warships from entering port if they were either nuclear powered or possibly carrying nuclear weapons.
SSNs obviously have the great advantage of unlimited range which is a particular
issue in the vastness of the Pacific and when faced by an adversary also equipped
with SSNs. The Japanese Sōryū-class SSKs
(which were originally a contender for the SEA 1000 competition) have good range
for conventional boats and their cutting edge Lithium-Ion battery technology gives
exceptionally good underwater endurance for an SSK. The Soryu is inferior
to the SSN in most scenarios but from a purely cost, industrial and timescale perspective
would seem to make much more sense than ‘reaching for the stars’ by starting a nuclear
submarine programme from scratch.
The Australian Government says they plan to build at least 8 SSNs
in Adelaide but will take the next 18 months to consider “safety, design, construction,
operation, maintenance, disposal, regulation, training, environmental protection,
installations and infrastructure, basing, workforce and force structure”. The key decision will
be around the design. For the sake of simplicity buying an existing and proven design
based on the US Virginia class or British Astute-class would save time and cost.
An entirely new
design will obviously be more expensive and time-consuming but could be cutting
edge and customised to Australian requirements. The RN is currently in the conceptual phase of
the SSN(R) project which will define the requirements for the eventual replacement
of the Astutes and there could potentially be a shared UK-AUS design effort.
This development offers some tantalising opportunities for UK industry but
in reality, there is limited extra capacity within the
nuclear submarine enterprise for additional demands. Completing the Astute programme and the early phases
of the giant Dreadnought programme almost fully occupies the available supply chain.
Although the nuclear aspects are complex,
the UK does have many submarine components and
systems that could be exported. In particular the British submarine sonars and
the Spearfish torpedo and regarded as better than the US options.
There is a shortage of nuclear engineers and skilled engineering staff in
general, with few people available to be seconded to Australia. The RN is also struggling to find and retain enough
nuclear-trained watch-keepers for its modest submarine fleet. The RN should however be able to offer personnel
exchanges, mentoring and advice to the RAN on its road to force generation. The US obviously has
considerably more industrial capacity than the UK but is also not short of
work, aiming to increase production of its Virginia class and about to commence
the Columbia class SSBN programme.
Geo-politically the new AUKUS defence relationship makes sense on many levels
and has potential benefits for the UK, further building on the export success of
the Type 26 frigate. While SSNs are the desired
apex predator of the seas, it would appear the Australians have committed to an
even more costly, lengthy and demanding route to rebuilding their submarine force
than before.
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