重新思考美國對世界的途徑—執行遏制戰略：Rethinking the U.S. Approach to the World RAND 20210121 摘要翻譯Taimocracy

【縛雞之見】
RAND報告主張「現實主義的大遏制戰略」（a Realist Grand Strategy of Restraint），很像川普時期「有原則的現實主義」。前者富有「目標性」，後者補足「理想性」。

此摘要也是修正川普的粗魯單邊主義，回到盟（美國最大的資產之一）—這當然是對的。
報告的立論結論與劉寶潔節目的判斷似有出入。報告甚至檢視了論述的方法論層次：「現實主義的大遏制戰略」會有部分錯，或全錯？
現然，美國對於扶植中國的關店與政策一錯錯了40年。這倒是我看本報告摘要的激賞處。

Rethinking the U.S. Approach to the World　　RAND 20210121　摘要翻譯Taimocracy 

Implementing Restraint

Changes in U.S. Regional Security Policies to Operationalize a Realist Grand Strategy of Restraint美國改變地區安全政策，實施現實主義的大遏制戰略      RAND 20210124

Research Questions

1. What broad and specific changes to U.S. security policies toward key regions have advocates of restraint already recommended? 主張遏制的人已建議對美國對關鍵地區的安全政策進行哪些廣泛而具體的改變？
2. Where do key policy prescriptions still need to be developed? 還需要在哪些方面制訂關鍵的政策處方？
3. What type of analysis would help fill these gaps? 什麼樣的分析將有助於填補這些空白？

The United States is facing several national security challenges at the same time that the federal budget is under pressure because of public health and infrastructure crises.  In response to these challenges, there has been growing public interest in rethinking the U.S. role in the world.  Under one option, a realist grand strategy of restraint, the United States would adopt a more cooperative approach toward other powers, reduce the size of its military and forward military presence, and end or renegotiate some of its security commitments.  To help U.S. policymakers and the public understand this option, the authors of this report explain how U.S. security policies toward key regions would change under a grand strategy of restraint, identify key unanswered questions, and propose next steps for developing the policy implications of this option. 美國正面臨著多項國家安全挑戰，同時，由於公共衛生和基礎設施危機，聯邦預算面臨壓力。為了應對這些挑戰，公眾對重新思考美國在世界上的作用越來越感興趣。根據一種選擇，即現實主義的大遏制戰略，美國將對其他大國採取更多的合作方式，減少其軍事規模和前沿軍事存在，並結束或重新談判一些安全承諾。為了幫助美國政策制訂者和公眾理解這一選擇，本報告作者解釋了在大遏制戰略下美國對關鍵地區的安全政策將如何變化，確定了關鍵的未解問題，並提出了制訂這一選擇的政策含義的下一步措施。

The authors find that regional policy under a grand strategy of restraint varies depending on the level of U.S. interests and the risk that a single powerful state could dominate the region.  Because of China's significant military capabilities, advocates of restraint call for a greater U.S. military role in East Asia than in other regions.  The authors recommend that advocates of a grand strategy of restraint should continue to develop their policy recommendations.  In particular, they should identify what changes in great-power capabilities and behavior would imperil U.S. vital interests, maritime areas where the United States should retain superiority, priorities for peacetime military activities, and war scenarios that should guide U.S. Department of Defense planning. 作者發現，在大遏制戰略下的地區政策會因美國利益水準和單一強國可能主導該地區的風險而有所不同。由於中國擁有強大的軍事能力，主張遏制的人要求美國在東亞地區發揮比其他地區更大的軍事作用。作者建議，主張遏制大戰略的人應該繼續發展他們的政策建議。特別是，他們應該確定超級大國能力和行為的哪些變化會危及美國的重大利益，美國應該保持優勢的海洋地區，和平時期軍事活動的優先事項，以及應該指導美國國防部規劃的戰爭情景。

 

Key Findings

• Advocates of restraint have threat assessments and assumptions that differ from those of policymakers who have shaped U.S. grand strategy since the end of the Cold War. 主張遏制的人對威脅的評估和假設，與冷戰結束以來塑造美國大戰略的政策制訂者的評估和假設不同。
• Generally, advocates of restraint would rely more on diplomacy to settle conflicts of interest, encourage other states to lead, and preserve military power to defend vital U.S. interests. 一般來說，主張遏制者會更多地依靠外交手段來解決利益衝突，鼓勵其他國家發揮主導作用，並保留軍事力量來捍衛美國的重要利益。
• If a grand strategy of restraint were used, the United States would have a smaller military, fewer security commitments and forces based abroad, and a higher bar for the use of military force compared with current policy. 與現行政策相比，若採用大遏制戰略，美國的軍隊規模將縮小，安全承諾和駐外部隊將減少，使用軍事力量的門檻將提高。
• The specific implications of this grand strategy vary by region depending on the level of U.S. interests and the risk that a single power could dominate the region. 這一大戰略的具體影響因地區而異，取決於美國利益的高低和單一大國主導該地區的風險。
• Advocates of restraint seek a more cooperative approach with current U.S. adversaries, such as Russia and Iran. 主張遏制的人尋求與等美國當前的對手如俄羅斯和伊朗更多的合作方式。
• The primary area of disagreement among advocates of restraint is U.S. strategy in the Asia-Pacific. 主張遏制者的主要分歧領域是美國的亞太戰略。
• Advocates of restraint argue that the rise of single powerful state in East Asia, Europe, or the Persian Gulf would imperil vital U.S. interests but have not yet offered policymakers guidance on how to know that such a threat is emerging. 主張遏制的人認為，東亞、歐洲或波斯灣單一強國的崛起將危及美國的重要利益，但尚未為決策者提供，如何知道這種威脅正在出現的指導。
• To generate more-specific policy implications for each region, advocates of restraint need to expand on their logic and conduct additional analysis. 為了對各地區產生更具體的政策影響，主張遏制的人需要擴展他們的論述並進行更多的分析。

Recommendations

• Evaluate the core claims underlying a grand strategy of restraint to validate and refine its policy prescriptions. 評估大遏制戰略基礎的核心主張，以驗證和完善其政策規定。
• Develop risk mitigation strategies to hedge against the possibility that one of the core assumptions of a grand strategy of restraint is fully or partially incorrect. 制訂緩解風險戰略，以規避大遏制戰略的核心假設之一完全或部分錯誤的可能性。
• Specify the conditions under which the United States would stop military retrenchment or even increase its military engagement within each region.確認美國在什麼條件下會停止軍事縮減，甚至增加各地區的軍事介入。
• Clarify what changes in great-power capabilities and behavior would constitute a serious threat to vital U.S. interests. 確認超級大國能力和行為的哪些變化，會對美國的重要利益構成嚴重威脅。
• Provide guidance on whether and how to respond to China's, Russia's, and Iran's gray zone activities. 就是否以及如何應對中國、俄羅斯和伊朗的灰色地帶活動提供指導。
• Identify the maritime areas where the United States should retain superiority. 確定美國應保持優勢的海洋區域。
• Offer prescriptions on how the United States should evaluate threats and operate in the space and cyber domains. 提供美國應如何評估威脅以及在太空和網路領域的行動處方。
• Identify scenarios to guide U.S. Department of Defense planning and U.S. force posture decisions. 確定指導美國國防部規劃和美國部隊態勢決策的想定。
• Provide priorities for U.S. military peacetime activities, such as exercises. 提供為美軍和平時期的活動（如演習）優先事項。
• Develop policies toward Africa, the Americas, and the Arctic. 制訂對非洲、美洲和北極的政策。
• Develop proposals on trade and other international economic issues. 制訂有關貿易和其他國際經濟問題的建議。
• Assess the cost savings associated with core policy prescriptions. 評估與核心政策規定相關的成本節約。