歡迎來到新的雙極世界 Welcome to the New Bipolar World Peter K. Thompson＠newcongress.com 20191117 Taimocracy翻譯20191118

【縛雞之見】

政治講究比例與平衡，一種不要差太多的動態平衡。

2008之後，小英在黨內治理上失衡，失去轉圜籌碼，是很不好的現象。

希望在外交與戰略上，除了先厚植實力外，也要隨時保持一點點轉圜空間。

歡迎來到新的雙極世界 Welcome to the New Bipolar World    Peter K. Thompson＠newcongress.com 20191117    Taimocracy翻譯20191118

Essentially, the new bipolar world has put Taiwan right in the crosshairs of the planet’s two biggest bullies, and only time will tell if it has the necessary diplomatic skill and wisdom to maintain its own peaceful existence.

本質上，新的雙極世界使台灣成為地球上兩個最大霸權的準星上，只有時間才能證明台灣是否具有維持自己的和平生存所必需的外交技巧和智慧。

Trade wars, firms getting blacklisted, oceanic border disputes, military parades, shifting alliances, sports controversies … this is the brave new global order we now live in – that of the bipolar world.

貿易戰、被列入黑名單的公司、海洋邊界爭端、閱兵式、不斷變化的聯盟、體育爭議…，這是我們現在生活的美麗新全球秩序，即一種雙極世界的秩序。

What exactly is a bipolar world? Well, ‘bi’ means ‘two’, and ‘polar’ roughly means ‘opposite’, so ‘bipolar’ signifies something like ‘two opposites’.  In psychology, bipolar disorder denotes a state of mind that’s also called manic depression, where the person’s mood swings from one extreme to the other.  In terms of geopolitics, on the other hand, a bipolar planet is one divided in half, between the top two superpowers, with all the other countries forced to pick a side.

什麼是雙極世界？“ bi”的意思是“兩個”的意思，而“polar”的意思大概是「相反」，因此“bipolar”表示類似「兩個相反」的意思。在心理學中，躁鬱症是指一種精神狀態，也稱為躁狂抑鬱症，此人的情緒從一種極端轉變為另一種極端。另一方面，就地緣政治而言，雙極行星被一分為二，位於前兩大超級大國間，其他所有國家都被迫選邊。

Historically speaking, it seems that when one superpower arises to dominant its sphere of influence, another sometimes follows, challenging the first one for supremacy.  This phenomenon originally occurred in Ancient Greece, when Athens came on the scene to take on all-powerful Sparta, a struggle that eventually led to the collapse of both city-states.  This geopolitical happening even has its own term, Thucydides’s Trap, which is named after the Greek historian who pointed out that the ongoing battle between these two states, called the Peloponnesian War (431-404 B.C.E.), came about because of “the growth of Athenian power and the fear that this caused in Sparta”.

歷史上講，似乎當一個超級大國崛起建立其影響圈時，有時就會出現另一個超級大國，挑戰第一個超級大國至上的地位。這種現象最初發生在古希臘，當時雅典要戰勝強大的斯巴達，這場競爭最終導致兩個城邦的瓦解。這種地緣政治事件甚至有其自己的術語—修昔底德的陷阱，以希臘歷史學家的名字命名。修昔底德指出，這兩國家間持續不斷的「伯羅奔尼撒戰爭」（公元前431-404年），是由於「雅典政權的崛起，及斯巴達的恐懼」。

Fast-forward to the 21st century, where the dominant power is the good ‘ol US of A, who – fortunately for them – won the Cold War when the Soviet Union (the last great other superpower) collapsed in 1991. Since then, the US has enjoyed a more or less unfettered reign over the Earth, pursuing its interests and implementing its policies where it saw fit, in the general absence of any comparable rival to challenge its assertions.  All of that changed, however, around 2010 when China started growing at a staggering economic pace, and now – as we can see from the events mentioned in the opening sentence of this article – shit’s getting heated between these two geopolitical giants. 

場景回到21世紀，主導力量是「老美」。在1991年蘇聯（最後一個超級大國）垮台時，美國贏得了冷戰。在大體上沒有任何勢均力敵的競爭對手挑戰其主張的情況下，美國在地球上或多或少君臨天下，追求自己的利益並執行自己認為合適的政策。但是，所有這些都改變了，在2010年左右，中國開始以驚人的經濟速度增長。如今，正如本文開頭所提到的，可以看到的—這兩個地緣政治巨人間的矛盾日益升溫。

Proof of how intense the struggle between the US and China has gotten in the last several years is the number of bipartisan bills the US Congress has floated on this topic.  Legislative gridlock along political lines is usually the one thing you can count on in Washington, but it seems like that’s not the case for matters involving China.  Recent examples of bills that would have been unthinkable a decade ago are the Defending America’s 5G Future Act (designed to keep Huawei out of the next-generation telecommunications infrastructure), the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act (requiring Hong Kong’s autonomy to be certified before the city qualifies for special treatment), and the Taiwan Allies International Protection and Enhancement Initiative Act (threatening to punish countries that break their diplomatic alliances with Taiwan).   

過去幾年中，中美之間競爭激烈，這是美國國會兩黨相關法案漂移不定。在華盛頓，政治上壁壘分明造成立法僵局是一回事，但涉及中國的事似乎並非如此。最近的法案示例是十年前無法想像的，例如《捍衛美國的5G未來法案》（旨在使華為脫離下一代電信基礎設施），《香港人權與民主法案》（要求香港獲得自治權）在台灣有資格獲得特殊待遇之前），和《台灣同盟國際保護和增強倡議法》（威脅要懲罰破壞與台灣外交聯盟的國家）。

One interesting aspect of the modern version of Thucydides’s Trap is that, while the originally cited conflict – that of Athens and Sparta – led directly to war, the struggle between the US and China seems to be playing out more in economic and ideological terms.  As we can see from the Trump administration’s efforts to rectify trade imbalances with China, neutralize the power of its technology and protect American firms’ intellectual property, as well as the moral quandary many US companies face when doing business with China (ahem, the NBA), the economic conflict between the two powers is amping up like never before.  But still, the struggle hasn’t degenerated into actual warfare, which is an outcome neither side probably wants (although cyberwarfare is certainly acceptable).

現代「修昔底德陷阱」的一個有趣點是，雖然最初提到的衝突—雅典和斯巴達的衝突直接導致了戰爭，但在經濟和意識形態方面，美中之間的鬥爭似乎更激烈。從川普政府為糾正與中國的貿易不平衡，削減其技術力量，保護美國公司的智慧財產，以及許多美國公司與中國開展業務時面臨的道德困境的努力中可以看出，兩個大國間經濟衝突以史無前例的加速。但，鬥爭並沒有演變成實際的戰爭，這是雙方都不想得到的結果（網絡戰爭，當然只好接受）。

So, given that the two nations creating the bipolar state of the world are the US and China, and that neither of them likely wants to engage in an open war, where does that leave Taiwan?  Not in a very good place, that’s for sure, albeit a unique one.  Remarkably, Taiwan is caught smack in the center of the bipolarism we’ve described – precariously straddling the chasm between both sides, if you will – because, while China claims that the island is actually part of its nation (and, in fact, the vast majority of Taiwanese people are ethnically Chinese), the US is obviously its biggest ally.  And – perhaps ironically – ideologically speaking, in terms of the liberal, democratic values of its political structure, Taiwan could be said to have more in common with America than it does with the mainland.

考慮創造世界雙極狀態的美中兩國家，都不願意進行公開戰爭，會帶給台灣什麼？儘管台灣是一個獨特的地方，卻不是一個很好的地方。毫無疑問，台灣陷入了我們所述的雙極的中心，雙方競爭逐爭取中。儘管中國聲稱該島實際上是其一部分（且實際上絕大多數台灣人是華裔），但美國顯然是台灣最大盟友。諷刺的是，從意識形態上來講，就台灣政治結構的自由，民主價值而言，台灣與美國比台灣與大陸具享有更多共同點。

In practical terms, this means Taiwan has to somehow keep itself balanced between these two Goliaths, finding a way to work with and not be completely absorbed by the hostile one nearby, while currying enough favor with the one thousands of miles away to ensure its unyielding support and protection.  But it’s difficult, of course, to be stuck in the middle of a bipolar universe, as that’s a space that – strictly speaking – doesn’t really exist (i.e., there can only be two sides), and if Taiwan ends up moving too far to either ‘pole’, there could be serious consequences.  Essentially, the new bipolar world has put Taiwan right in the crosshairs of the planet’s two biggest bullies, and only time will tell if it has the necessary diplomatic skill and wisdom to maintain its own peaceful existence.

實務上，這意味著台灣必須以某種方式在兩巨人間保持平衡，找到一種與近敵合作而不被其完全吸收的方法，同時在千里之外引起足夠的青睞，以確保絕不妥協的支持和保護。但，這當然很難保持在一個雙極宇宙正中間。嚴格來說，這個正中間的空間實際上並不存在（即只能選邊站），而且如果台灣最終移動過頭偏向任何一極，都可能產生嚴重的後果。本質上，新的雙極世界使台灣成為地球上兩個最大霸權的準星，只有時間才能證明它是否具有維持自己的和平生存所必需的外交技巧和智慧。

Author / Peter K. Thompson