季辛吉說，美中正在冷戰的登山口 Kissinger Says U.S. and China in ‘Foothills of a Cold War’ Bloomberg 20191121 Taimocracy 翻譯20191122

【縛雞之見】

這場 New Economy Forum 是由 Bloomberg與「中國國際經濟交流中心」合辦的「2019年創新經濟論壇」。

開宗明義的目的可以在會議的開幕演說中體會：

從國家計畫到市場：探討中國改革

中國未來十年的經濟發展將會是什麼樣子？中國如何定義和確定其改革議程的重點？正在發生的變化是否會帶來一個中西方合作的新時期？或者自由市場和社會主義市場經濟這兩種相互競爭的經濟模式是否會永久存在？

在共產黨員阿里巴巴馬雲被辭職下，在香港年輕人與法治這樣被「國進民退」無情摧殘下，北京還說什麼「從國家計畫到市場」？

季辛吉說，美中正在冷戰的登山口  Kissinger Says U.S. and China in ‘Foothills of a Cold War’     Bloomberg 20191121    Taimocracy 翻譯20191122 

Former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger said the U.S. and China were in the “foothills of a Cold War,” and warned that the conflict could be worse than World War I if left to run unconstrained.

美國前國務卿季辛吉（Henry Kissinger）表示，中美處於「冷戰的登山口」，並警告說，如果任其恣意發展，衝突可能會比第一次世界大戰更為嚴重。

“That makes it, in my view, especially important that a period of relative tension be followed by an explicit effort to understand what the political causes are and a commitment by both sides to try to overcome those,” Kissinger told a session of the New Economy Forum.  “It is far from being too late for that, because we are still in the foothills of a cold war.”

「我認為，在一段相對緊張的時期之後，進行明確的努力以瞭解政治原因是什麼，以及雙方致力於克服這些原因的承諾，這一點尤其重要，」季辛吉在《新經濟論壇》上說。「為此還不算太晚，因為我們仍處於冷戰的登山口。」

Kissinger said China and the U.S. were countries of a magnitude exceeding that of the Soviet Union and America, and that the world’s two largest economies, who are locked in a protracted trade war, “are bound to step on each other’s toes all over the world, in the sense of being conscious of the purposes of the other.”

季辛吉說，中國和美國是一個規模超過蘇聯和美國，被困在曠日持久的貿易戰中的世界上兩個最大的經濟體「在意識到對方的目的的意義上，必將在世界範圍內互相踩腳。」

“So a discussion of our mutual purposes and an attempt to limit the impact of conflict seems to me essential,” he said.  “If conflict is is permitted to run unconstrained the outcome could be even worse than it was in Europe.  World War 1 broke out because a relatively minor crisis could not be mastered.”

他說：「因此，在我們看來，討論我們的共同目的以及試圖限制衝突的影響是至關重要的。」「如果允許衝突不受限制地進行，結果可能會比歐洲還要糟糕。第一次世界大戰爆發是因為無法掌握相對較小的危機。」

Kissinger, 96, said he hoped trade negotiations would provide an opening to political discussions between the two countries.

現年96歲的季辛吉說，他希望貿易談判將為兩國之間的政治討論提供機會。

“Everybody knows that trade negotiations, which I hope will succeed and whose success I support, can only be a small beginning to a political discussion that I hope will take place,” he said.

他說：「每個人都知道，我希望貿易談判能夠取得成功，我也支持它，但這只能是我希望進行的政治討論的一個小開始。」

QuickTake: How U.S.-China Tech Rivalry Looks Like Cold War 2.0

Kissinger spoke hours after Chinese Vice President Wang Qishan addressed the NEF, saying his country was committed to peace and would follow through on policy changes despite facing challenges at home and abroad.

QuickTake：中美科技競爭看起來像冷戰2.0

季辛吉在中國副總統王岐山在NEF發表講話後幾小時發表講話，稱該國致力於和平，儘管面臨國內外挑戰，但仍將繼續政策變化。

“Between war and peace, the Chinese people firmly choose peace.  Humanity cherishes peace,” he said.  “We should abandon the zero-sum thinking and cold war mentality.”

「在戰爭與和平之間，中國人民堅定地選擇了和平。人道保護和平」他說。「我們應該放棄零和思維和冷戰思維。」

The U.S. and China are trying to assemble a partial trade agreement amid wider tensions ranging from human rights concerns over pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong and the detention of Muslims in China’s Xinjiang region to strategic competition in the South China Sea.  Kissinger said he thought a solution to the unrest in Hong Kong was possible, if not likely, and that he hoped it would be resolved via negotiation.

在更廣泛的緊張局勢中，中美兩國試圖建立一份部分貿易協定，其範圍涉及人權問題，對香港的民主抗議，對中國新疆地區穆斯林的拘留，對南中國海的戰略競爭。季辛吉說，他認為香港動盪的解決是可能，即使看起來不像，而且季辛吉希望通過談判解決它。

The New Economy Forum is being organized by Bloomberg Media Group, a division of Bloomberg LP, the parent company of Bloomberg News. Other guests include Microsoft Corp. founder Bill Gates and former U.S. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson.

新經濟論壇由彭博新聞社的母公司彭博社旗下的彭博媒體集團組織。其他客人包括微軟公司創始人比爾·蓋茨和美國前財政部長漢克·保爾森。

— With assistance by James Mayger, Peter Martin, and Shelly Banjo

—在James Mayger，Peter Martin和Shelly Banjo的協助下完成