DPP初選的架構與劇本

直到今天，我還是認為DPP的初選是一場兒戲，頭人們或是因心思渙散、心不在焉，造成莫大後遺症的政治儀式。

當DPP當機，誰會撿到槍呢？當DPP當機，等於DPP支持了Manchurian candidates。

I still consider the primary election of DPP for the 2020 Presidential Campaign is a childish game.  The DPP cadres are reckless and careless for generating negative consequences as such.

The "Manchurian Candidate" might win the 2020 Campaign if DPP’s primary election system malfunctions.

設想一：蔡贏賴5％，完全沒問題。但，KMT卻是出現郭，而且沒有柯。怎辦？算了？（郭看起來有龐大公關公司做為幕僚，步驟非常穩健與紮實。判斷他會一直追上韓。而兩人的競爭，有將DPP邊緣化的效果）Terry Gou must have public relations companies to help him for his steps are steady and goal oriented.

設想二：賴贏蔡5％，完全沒問題嗎？且，KMT卻是出現郭，而且沒有柯。怎辦？算了？

設想三：蔡賴在2％內（比誤差範圍更小一點），雖然可以逼賴退，但KMT卻是出現郭，而且沒有柯。怎辦？算了？

這些劇本一定有被考慮與被討論的，但有沒有「被解決」呢？

至少，我們從公開的訊息上不知道。難道且戰且走嗎？

They must have discussed the above scenarios for times; however, we can not see a clue in the media that they have solved them.  Do DPP cadres tend to wait and see what happens?

因為事先沒講，也本質上屬於誤差範圍（等於是出現架構外因素），誰都無法解決這種狀態。

若是出現這些狀況，而且很可能會這樣，就是選民最賭爛的：將（可預見的）「政治危機」當兒戲。意思是，沒有後遺症的劇本：「蔡贏賴在誤差範圍以上，且KMT出現韓柯之一」，可能性不夠高，甚至很低。

這時候，只能政治解決，就是靠全代會決定（徵召）。但民調代表性範圍的廣泛，是高過黨員大會的。

What DPP will do if the worst scenario, Lai wins in slight but Terry Gou, the outside factor, becomes the candidate of KMT, comes true.  The only solution is political, mandating the National Part Assembly to decide, which also means the primary election is childish.

到這地步，初選等於是兒戲。目的在拖時間，等KMT出牌而已。

這個初選，本質上屬於sequential思考，就是一種邏輯上的「乘法關係」。意思是，只要小處一卡關(null)，整個系統就當機。

一個完整的思考，是要包括sequential與parallel兩種。協調，乍看之下好像是parallel，實際上還是LOOP，或tautology。

DPP's primary election is sequential, additional to childish, which will lead to malfunction easily.  A single imperfection in the sequential processing will crash the whole system.  A wide variety of structured activities should be supported, including sequential and parallel processing and condition looping. 

Yes, DPP has set a phase of negotiation; yet, that is through the personal connection: to bury things under the table, or to "persuade" people by influence, not to solve the problem in a systematic way.

台灣政治，走慣了戒嚴、集權與中華風，老是陷入「全有全無」的狀態。憲改說要改內閣制，無異於痴人說夢。Proportional sharing of power，從來不再中華人的心思中。.

上面說的，就是以前提及形容為「上帝的律法不可逾越」的狀態。不是在說誰善誰惡這種層次的問題。