中國「永續債」的金融風險 陳鴻達@自由 20190307

【Comment】

Chinese main banks are issuing perpetual bonds.  It is the bond with no maturity date, which makes it de facto equity, its bearers stockholders.  But this is true for private corporations. 

The Chinese banks now trade their perpetual bonds to the People’s Bank for Central Bank Bills, making the bonds guaranteed by the government.  This unusual way, pretty much like a fraud, signifies the seriousness of China’s financial crisis.

中國「永續債」的金融風險    陳鴻達@自由 20190307

日前金管會公布我國銀行在中國的曝險規模，整體來說雖然有下降，但還是對中信銀等提出示警，因為中國政府近來種種的金融措施，本國銀行實在必須提高警覺。

從二○一八年一月至今，中國人民銀行已有五次降準等措施，約等於投放三點五兆元貨幣，然而銀行銀根吃緊問題仍然嚴重。為解決此問題，中國銀行在今年一月廿五日首度獲准發行四百億人民幣的永續債，接著三月四日又傳出華夏銀行亦將發行同額度的永續債，預料這股永續債風潮將持續下去。

永續債，又稱萬年債券，是沒有明確到期日的債券，因此必須提供遠高於一般債券的利率，目前行情大概要多三百個基點，才能吸引投資者的青睞。為什麼中國銀行業要用這麼高成本發債呢？因為中國股市不佳，許多銀行股的股價都跌破面額，在這個情形下銀行很難利用股市募集資金，只好利用發行永續債來滿足巴賽爾III資本充足協定。

事實上利用永續債來補充資本也不是不行，但中國人民銀行一月廿四日還加碼宣布創設央行票據互換工具（Central Bank Bills Swap，CBS），容許公開市場業務一級交易商，以合資格商業銀行的永續債，向人民銀行換入央行票據。這等於是讓商業銀行可以拿有破產風險的債券，去換有政府擔保的債券。這種不尋常的作法，甚至被部分市場人士分析形容為「中國版QE」。

此外，根據彭博消息，中國非銀行的永續債於二○一三年起步，目前累計金額將近二兆人民幣。一般正常使用永續債的公司，都會儘早贖回，以節省利息支出。但大部分中國大陸企業在面臨贖回選擇權時，都選擇不贖回。因此也令人擔心，這些永續債到底是及時雨？還是飲鴆止渴？

China to set up central bank bills swap to support liquidity of banks' perpetual bonds    Reuters 20190124

BEIJING, Jan 24 (Reuters) - China’s central bank plans to set up a central bank bills swap (CBS) in order to improve the liquidity of banks’ perpetual bonds, it said on Thursday.

The setup of the CBS also aims to encourage banks to replenish capital via perpetual bond issuance, the People’s Bank of China said in a statement on its website.

Banks’ perpetual bonds with ratings at no lower than AA will be included as qualified collateral for a medium-term lending facility (MLF), a targeted medium-term lending facility (TMLF), a standing lending facility (SLF) and re-lending, according to the statement. (Reporting by Min Zhang in Beijing and Meg Shen in Hong Kong; Editing by Alison Williams)

China’s Central Bank Bill Swap Different from QE    CEIBS 20190212

In this column carried by the Global Times on Feb 8, Professor Sheng Songcheng explains that risk is the underlying difference between China’s central bank bills swap and the quantitative easing used by the US Federal Reserve during the last crisis.

The People's Bank of China (PBC), the country's central bank, announced last month the creation of the central bank bills swap (CBS) aimed at supporting commercial lender's perpetual bond sales.  Primary dealers on the open market can swap perpetual bonds issued by qualified banks with central bank bills.  Perpetual bonds with AA ratings and above can be used as collateral for medium-term, targeted, and standing lending facilities, and re-lending purposes. 

CBS and the quantitative easing (QE) picked up by the Federal Reserve amid the 2008 financial crisis may appear similar.  Some have called the CBS the Chinese version of QE even though they are different.

In the US, QE refers to the Fed directly purchasing bonds and mortgage-backed securities (MBS), adding liquidity to the market.  The Fed's portfolio expanded to $4.5 trillion from less than $900 billion before the 2008 financial crisis.

在美國，量化寬鬆是指美聯儲直接購買債券和抵押貸款支持證券（MBS），為市場增加流動性。 在2008年金融危機之前，美聯儲的投資組合從不到9000億美元擴大到4.5兆美元。

The underlying difference between CBS and QE is risk.  The CBS roll-out is aimed at helping banks issue perpetual bonds to meet the asset adequacy requirement from the Basel Committee's global bank assessment.  The Chinese central bank does not shoulder perpetual bond credit risks, in clear contrast with the Fed whose methods include such risk-taking actions like purchasing "toxic assets" to rescue banks. 

CBS和QE之間的根本區別在於風險。 CBS的推出旨在幫助銀行發行永久債券，以滿足巴塞爾委員會全球銀行評估的資產充足率要求。 中國央行並未承擔永久債券信用風險，與美聯儲形成鮮明對比，美聯儲的方法包括購買“有毒資產”以拯救銀行等風險行為。

A more significant difference between CBS and QE lies in the process of the "bills swap," which does not increase the monetary base of the central bank.  Swapping central bank bills with perpetual bonds will not directly inject liquidity into the market.

CBS和QE之間的一個更顯著的區別在於“票據互換”，這不會增加央行的貨幣基礎。 用永久債券交換中央銀行票據不會直接向市場注入流動性。

This current issuance of central bank bills is not similar to when the PBC bought foreign exchange to avoid yuan appreciation.  Previously, the bank bill was issued to reduce, rather than unleash liquidity as purchasing foreign exchange would have an impact.  Today, the CBS does not affect the monetary base, thus proving it is not QE.

目前發行的中央銀行票據與中國人民銀行購買外匯以避免人民幣升值時並不相似。 此前，銀行法案旨在減少而不是釋放流動性，因為購買外匯會產生影響。 今天，CBS不會影響貨幣基礎，從而證明它不是QE。

Though primary dealers may use central bank bills as collateral for a medium lending facility (MLF) or a standing lending facility (SLF) to gain liquidity, it would still be an indirect operation. Dealers will be expected to pay interest and there are due dates to consider for MLF, SLF, and the like.

雖然一級交易商可以使用中央銀行票據作為中型貸款工具（MLF）或常設貸款工具（SLF）的抵押品以獲得流動性，但它仍然是間接操作。預計交易商將支付利息，並且有適當的日期考慮MLF，SLF等。

The Fed, however, bought Treasury bonds and MBS directly from the market to lower long-term interest rates and encourage banks to grant loans.  Even after the Fed began rolling back the balance sheet, its total assets dropped to just around $4 trillion from $4.5 trillion in more than four years.  The amount removed out of the balance sheet is tiny compared with the more than $3 trillion in assets added to the Fed's balance sheet from the 2008 financial crisis.  Purchased assets acquired through QE will probably stay on the account, while perpetual bonds swapped are due after three years, and thus CBS doesn't expand the balance sheet of the PBC.

然而，美聯儲直接從市場購買國債和MBS以降低長期利率並鼓勵銀行發放貸款。即使在美聯儲開始回滾資產負債表之後，其總資產也從四年多來的4.5兆美元降至4兆美元左右。與2008年金融危機後美聯儲資產負債表中超過3兆美元的資產相比，從資產負債表中刪除的金額微不足道。通過量化寬鬆獲得的購買資產可能會留在賬戶上，而交換的永久債券將在三年後到期，因此CBS不會擴大PBC的資產負債表。

The PBC toolkit still contains useful devices. Short-term interest rates hover at around 2.5 percent, well beyond the zero mark.  So, a prudent and neutral monetary policy would be enough.  It would be unnecessary to conduct QE operations similar to what the Fed and European Central Bank did during the 2008 financial crisis when it was their last resort.

PBC工具包仍然包含有用的設備。短期利率徘徊在2.5％左右，遠遠超過零點。因此，謹慎和中立的貨幣政策就足夠了。沒有必要進行QE操作，類似於美聯儲和歐洲央行在2008年金融危機期間做的最後手段。

Although the monetary policies are useful, they remain limited and require fiscal plans to accompany them.  As fiscal policy is expected to play a more significant role in the future, the 3 percent deficit of the Maastricht economic criterion does not apply in Chinese situations.  It is entirely possible for China to raise its fiscal deficit and lower corporate tax rates.  The fiscal deficit can be lifted to 4 percent around since the central government debt structure is healthy.  First, China's government debt is mainly internal rather than external.  Second, the percentage of short-term debt is comparatively low.  Third, the Chinese economy and government revenue continue to enjoy significant growth, much faster than that of developed countries.

雖然貨幣政策很有用，但它們仍然有限，需要隨之制訂財政計劃。由於預計財政政策在未來將發揮更重要的作用，馬斯特里赫特經濟標準的3％赤字並不適用於中國的情況。中國完全有可能提高財政赤字並降低企業稅率。自中央政府債務結構健康以來，財政赤字可以提升至4％左右。首先，中國的政府債務主要是內部而非外部。其次，短期債務的比例相對較低。第三，中國經濟和政府收入繼續大幅增長，遠快於發達國家。

The regulatory policies should also complement the monetary policies. The PBC has made great efforts to unclog the monetary policy system. In general, a modern banking system creates savings when issuing loans and generates money through the lending process. Meanwhile, the conditions and rules for issuing loans are the responsibility of a regulatory body. Off-balance sheet financing and shadow banking and the like are regulated as well. The PBC alone cannot finish the entire monetary transmission process.

監管政策還應該補充貨幣政策。中國人民銀行大力疏通貨幣政策體系。一般而言，現代銀行系統在發放貸款時可以節省成本，並通過貸款流程產生資金。同時，發放貸款的條件和規則是監管機構的責任。資產負債表外融資和影子銀行等也受到監管。僅PBC無法完成整個貨幣傳輸過程。

Given today's circumstances, it will take longer before a stimulus could affect the real economy.  Due to the expectations of a global economic downturn and other reasons including strict regulations, deleveraging, and cracking down on the shadow banking sector, the Chinese economy is likely to experience prolonged periods of pressure.  With a proactive fiscal and prudent monetary policy in place, among other complementary measures, market confidence will be restored.  The Chinese economy would begin stabilizing during the second quarter of 2019.

鑑於今天的情況，刺激措施可能會影響實體經濟需要更長的時間。由於全球經濟衰退的預期以及其他原因，包括嚴格監管，去槓桿化以及打擊影子銀行業，中國經濟可能會經歷長期的壓力。通過積極的財政和穩健的貨幣政策，以及其他補充措施，市場信心將得到恢復。中國經濟將在2019年第二季度開始企穩。

The author is a senior adviser to the People's Bank of China and adjunct professor of economics and finance at China Europe International Business School.