小想定：Providing for the Common Defense 美國國會國防戰略報告 20181114 Taimocracy翻譯

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台灣放在第一景。〈夜襲〉？

小想定：Providing for the Common Defense    美國國會國防戰略報告 20181114    Taimocracy翻譯

1. Losing Taiwan 失去台灣

In 2024, China undertakes a surprise attack to prevent Taiwan from declaring independence.  As Chinese forces launch air and missile attacks, cripple the Taiwanese Navy, and conduct amphibious landings, it becomes clear that decisive U.S. intervention will be required. Unfortunately, America can no longer mount such an intervention at acceptable cost.  China’s missile, air, surface, and undersea capabilities have continued to grow as U.S. defense spending has stagnated. Large parts of the Western Pacific have become “no-go” zones for U.S. forces.  The Pentagon informs the President that America could probably defeat China in a long war, if the full might of the nation was mobilized.  Yet it would lose huge numbers of ships and aircraft, as well as thousands of lives, in the effort, in addition to suffering severe economic disruptions—all with no guarantee of having decisive impact before Taiwan was overrun.  Allowing Taiwan to be absorbed by the mainland would represent a crushing blow to America’s credibility and regional position.  But avoiding that outcome would now require absorbing horrendous losses.

2024年，中國發動奇襲，阻止台灣宣布獨立。隨著中國軍隊發動空中和導彈攻擊，摧毀台灣海軍，並進行兩棲登陸，顯然需要在美國採取果斷的干預措施。不幸的是，美國再也無法以可接受的代價進行這種干預。隨著美國國防開支停滯不前，中國的導彈，空中，地面和水下能力持續增長。西太平洋的大部分地區已成為「美軍禁入區」。五角大廈告訴總統，如果動員國家全部力量，美國可能在長期戰爭中擊敗中國。然而，除了遭受嚴重的經濟破壞之外，它還將失去大量的船隻和飛機，以及數千人的生命—所有這些都無法保證在台灣被侵佔前產生決定性的影響。台灣被大陸吸納，代表對美國的信譽和地區地位的沉重打擊。但是，避免這種結果現在需要吸收可怕的損失。

2. Nuclear Escalation with North Korea 與朝鮮的核升級

In 2019, U.S.-North Korean tensions remain high over Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile programs. As a precaution, the President directs an orderly withdrawal of U.S. civilians from South Korea.  Yet Kim Jong Un misinterprets this as prelude to war and strikes first. North Korean artillery hammers Seoul. Conventionally armed ballistic missiles strike ports, airfields, and U.S. military facilities in South Korea. As casualties mount, U.S. and South Korean leaders order operations to neutralize North Korea’s artillery, missile, and nuclear forces.  As the conflict escalates, however, Kim concludes that his only chance of survival is to shock America into backing down.  North Korea launches nuclear-armed ballistic missiles at the South Korean port of Busan and U.S. bases on Okinawa and Guam.  As the U.S. President considers how to respond, Kim announces that if America does not accept an immediate cease-fire, North Korea will launch nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) at the continental United States—a threat against which U.S. missile defenses offer only uncertain protection.  The President faces a terrible dilemma: risk devastating nuclear attacks on U.S. cities or let North Korea prevail.

2019年，美朝之間的緊張局勢仍高於平壤的核和導彈計劃。作為預防措施，總統指示美國平民從韓國有秩序地撤離。然而，金正恩誤解，以為這是戰爭和先擊的前奏。朝鮮砲兵首爾。常規武裝彈道導彈襲擊了韓國的港口，機場和美國軍事設施。隨著傷亡人數增加，美國和韓國領導人下令採取行動，以消滅朝鮮的砲兵，導彈和核力量。然而，隨著衝突升級，金總結認為，他唯一的生存機會是讓美國退縮。朝鮮在韓國釜山港和美國駐沖繩和關島基地發射核武彈道導彈。在美國總統考慮如何回應時，金宣布，如果美國不接受立即停火，朝鮮將對美國大陸發射核彈頭洲際彈道導彈的威脅—美國導彈防禦系統提供只是不確定的保護。總統面臨著一個可怕的困境：冒著對美國城市進行破壞性核襲擊或讓朝鮮佔上風的風險。

3. Domestic Chaos amid War with Russia 與俄羅斯戰爭中的國內混亂

In 2019, NATO-Russia tensions ignite. Responding to false reports of atrocities against Russian populations in Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia, Russia invades those countries under guise of a “peacekeeping” mission.  As U.S. and NATO forces prepare to respond, Russia declares that strikes against Russian forces in those states will be treated as attacks on Russia itself—implying a potential nuclear response. Meanwhile, to keep America off balance, Russia escalates in disruptive ways.  Russian submarines attack trans-Atlantic fiber optic cables.  Russian hackers shut down power grids and compromise the security of U.S. banks. The Russian military uses advanced anti-satellite capabilities to damage or destroy U.S. military and commercial satellites.  The domestic consequences are severe.  Major cities are paralyzed; use of the internet and smart phones is disrupted. Financial markets plummet as commerce seizes up and online financial transactions slow to a crawl.  The banking system is thrown into chaos.  Even as the U.S. military confronts the immense operational challenge of liberating the Baltic states, American society is suffering the devastating impact of modern conflict.

2019年，北約與俄羅斯緊張局勢激化。針對拉脫維亞，立陶宛和愛沙尼亞對俄羅斯人民的暴行的假新聞，俄羅斯以維和任務為幌子入侵這些國家。隨著美國和北約部隊準備作出回應，俄羅斯宣布對這些國家的俄羅斯軍隊的襲擊將被視為對俄羅斯本身的攻擊—暗示可能的核反應。與此同時，為了使美國失去平衡，俄羅斯以顛覆性的方式升級。俄羅斯潛艇攻擊跨大西洋光纖電纜。俄羅斯駭客關閉電網並危及美國銀行的安全。俄羅斯軍方使用先進的反衛星能力來破壞或摧毀美國的軍事和商業衛星。國內後果嚴重。主要城市癱瘓；網路和智慧手機的使用中斷。隨著商業的復甦和網上金融交易的緩慢增長，金融市場大幅下挫。銀行系統陷入混亂。即使美國軍方面臨解放波羅的海國家的巨大作戰挑戰，美國社會仍在遭受現代衝突的破壞性影響。

4. Losing Access to the South China Sea 失去進入南中國海的通道

The year is 2022. China has been deploying advanced military capabilities on land formations in the South China Sea for nearly a decade.  Although America and its allies have decried China’s actions and increased the tempo of their own naval deployments, Beijing has gradually created a ring of military facilities that extends the reach of its naval, air, and amphibious forces. Amid tense U.S.-Chinese trade talks, China begins harassing commercial shipping in international waters that China claims as part of its exclusive economic zone.  When the United States and its allies hesitate to challenge this behavior, an emboldened China then imposes heavy tolls on maritime traffic through the South China Sea and begins restricting transit by commercial vessels from America and other “unfriendly” nations.  With 14 percent of America’s maritime trade passing through the South China Sea, the economic effects are immediately felt in U.S. financial markets, consumer prices, and manufacturing and agricultural communities. America has fought to preserve freedom of the seas before.  But now, the potential military costs of reversing China’s control over the South China Sea seem so high, and Washington confronts so many other global challenges, that America can only acquiesce.

這一年是2022年。中國近十年來一直在南海陸地上部署先進的軍事能力。雖然美國及其盟國譴責中國的行動並增加了自己海軍部署的速度，但北京逐漸建立了一支軍事設施，擴大了海軍，空中和兩棲部隊的影響範圍。在緊張的美中貿易談判中，中國開始騷擾國際水域的商業航運，中國聲稱這是其專屬經濟區的一部分。當美國及其盟國對這種行為提出質疑時，一個大膽的中國隨後對通過南中國海的海上交通徵收大量通行費，並開始限制來自美國和其他「不友好」國家的商船過境。隨著美國14％的海上貿易通過南中國海，美國金融市場，消費者價格，製造業和農業社區立即感受到經濟影響。美國以前曾努力維護海洋自由。但現在，扭轉中國對南中國海控制權的潛在軍事成本似乎如此之高，華盛頓面臨著許多其他全球性挑戰，美國只能默許。

5. Cyber Attacks in Conflict Short of War 戰爭中網路攻擊

Competition with Russia need not erupt into war for the impact to be profound. In 2020, mass protests against the authoritarian Lukashenko regime in Belarus prompt Russian intervention to “stabilize” that government. Because this marks the third time in 12 years Russia has invaded a neighboring country, America and its European allies impose harsh economic sanctions.  Rather than backing down, Russia responds by exploiting U.S. vulnerabilities in cyberspace.  Russian hackers launch massive cyberattacks on the U.S. electoral infrastructure in November, tampering with registration rolls and vote counts and thereby throwing the elections into chaos.  Russia also launches targeted attacks against the U.S. electrical grid, leaving Cleveland and Syracuse without power for days.  As the President weighs his options, his advisers warn that Russia can still escalate further in cyberspace—by attacking other power grids or the U.S. financial system.  Moscow could also provoke a military crisis in the Baltic region, where it enjoys conventional dominance over outnumbered U.S. and NATO forces.  America has seen the very fabric of its society and polity attacked, but struggles to find an effective response.

與俄羅斯的競爭不需要因為影響深遠而爆發戰爭。2020年，針對白俄羅斯獨裁盧卡申科政權的大規模抗議活動促使俄羅斯進行干預，以「穩定」政府。因為這標誌著俄羅斯12年來第三次入侵鄰國，美國及其歐洲盟國實施了嚴厲的經濟制裁。俄羅斯沒有退縮，而是利用美國在網路空間漏洞做出回應。俄羅斯駭客在11月份對美國選舉基礎設施發動大規模網絡攻擊，篡改登記冊和投票數，從而使選舉陷入混亂。俄羅斯還對美國電網發起有針對性的襲擊，使得克里夫蘭和錫拉丘茲幾天沒有電力供應。由於總統權衡他的選擇，他的顧問們警告俄羅斯仍然可以在網絡空間進一步升級—攻擊其他電網或美國金融系統。莫斯科也可能在波羅的海地區引發軍事危機，在那裡它享有超過美國和北約部隊的常規統治地位。美國已經看到其社會和政體的結構遭到攻擊，但卻在努力尋找有效的反應。