馬習會：椰子樹的進一步回覆 and 回響

Hi Businessman

Easy answer first:  I am not a fortune teller.  This is just a title I coronate myself so as to bring some fun while discussing very dry topics on the blog.  The name “fortune teller” is chosen for the reason： to tease my professional training - - quantitative economic forecasting. 

This kind of work absolutely presents no difference from telling a fortune, especially when assessing huge infrastructure investment over a long time span. Only God knows what will happen 50 years down the road.  The rest are all fortune guessing, no matter how robust a forecasting model of extreme complexity can be constructed.  All statistical and mathematical derivations of the model do not mean anything to the point of accuracy.

In conclusion, God rolls the dice. We can just “cross our fingers”.

All right, back to the needy greedy:

1.  Is China friendly to the US now? Or the tension and the hostility will grow between the two nations due to a stronger China?

Crystal ball: 

Should the Chinese Nationalism be kept prevailing in PRC, the tension can never be eased.

Why?

Chinese nationalism is the essential political backbone of Chinese politics. Rulers of all dynasties like to manipulate it to a maximum extent for one reason: easy to rule, easy to orchestrate, easy to blame others, easy to shake off duties.  It has some deep connections with the Chinese culture.  In fact, Nationalism is a very powerful and harmful cancer cell to any society.  It creates hostility towards others, makes no peace, presents arrogance - - -

Discussions about this topic may open another can of worms.  If you read some old articles on my old blog, you may have better understanding.

2.  Will China replace Russia as American arch-enemy some time from now?

Crystal ball: 

The bi-polar cold war era may not be resumed for one very simple reason: technology is so advanced that allows no confrontation between giants.  Everyone knows once there is a confrontation among big three, it means the end of the world.  However, “No confrontation” does not mean there will be peace and harmony.  In the big three club, not too many choices existing.  Two has been shown to the world already, and proved to be in-efficient.  The last two has not revealed as yet.  Please refer to: 誰是美國最大的威脅，中國還是俄羅斯？

3.  Is Taiwanese, at the eyes of American policy makers, politically experienced and capable to run its own regime now?

Crystall ball:

Taiwanese needs to prove their ability to form a sovereign state before Uncle Sam can extend a concurrence.

If Taiwan can demonstrate that:

Economically, Taiwan can be as inventive and dynamic as Japan.

Culturally, Taiwan can go beyond the Cathay stereotype.

not only US, but the whole world except PRC, will automatically accept Taiwan as a sovereign state that is absolutely irrelevant to China.

Without these two pre-requisites, Taiwan can only be manipulated according to US interest.

4.  Is Taiwanese determined enough to defend itself?

Crystall ball:

Willing to do so is one thing.  Ability to do so is another thing.  Based on what can Taiwanese defend themselves? Shouting and Yelling? Kamikaze Team?

5.  Japan was too weak in 1950s to say a word on the Asian affairs, would today’s Japan enhance its role in Asia if permitted by the US?

     Crystall ball:

Japan can only play the role as per US appointment, no more, no less.

6.  If the history repeated itself once more? Could Taiwan issue can be resolved this time, or the issue still be treated like an unsolved question and play like a bargaining chip to deal with China after a major conflict in the future?

Crystall ball:

Should the history can be resumed again, my guess is that the film is just playback one more time without any change.

Ajin

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Hi Ajin,

When I read the phrase of "quantitative economic forecast", I feel much better for myself.

I'm working as a profession fitting with my limited brain capacity - only simple logics and math to analyze pros and cons, then map and carry out the actions to achieve goals.

Quantitative, forecast, in my own perception, can only be done by the super smart persons like you.  Honestly, I could never figure out the implications from those complex models.

Your answers are not only logical but more importantly comprehensive.  I fully agree with your points, though some of them might not be so delightful to hear by the ears of those in pro-independence camps.

However, what are true are true, we have to face and correct our problems before we face another setbacks.

There are still a long journey to go if we want to be economically dynamic/ creative and culturally civilized and inclusively; but we have to start the journey from now.

Question is, as a no body, I don't have any channel and connection for our voices to be heard, and even being heard few might take them seriously.

Still I can do something by myself -- I hope I can run my business out of the box and not being trapped into the traditional throat-cutting price competition.  Either it is a slight improvement on our products/services, creative marketing campaigns, a renovating process, or an innovative business model.  Competition will never go away, so face it and compete creatively.

Culturally, I will try to teach my kids think independently, be absorptive, respectful, faithful, honest, resolute, and equally important, pragmatic. Teach them how to communicate effectively, team with valuable partners, and be creative in solutions. Don't be fooled by the appearance, go straight and deep into the core of the matters.

There are few things I can do, not too many to still worth to do.

Many thanks for your comments and they are really enlightening.

Let me don't bother you guys too much, at least give you a break at the weekend.

Wish you all have a very pleasant weekend.

Talk to you guys later and many thanks.

Businessman