豈不當然！中國軍武上沙島

【Comment】

Did China build and expand islands in South China Sea for purposes other than military occupation?  Of course China has to deploy weapons and radars on these newly-built islands!

The point is how the US responds to the latest situation.

Unfortunately, shallow Persian Gulf and Arctic Sea are even more suitable for man-made islands.  That would be a very difficult situation for the US.

The Sydney Morning Herald大呼小叫！要建造中國的軍事堡壘不就是早知道嗎？

否則北京造島何苦來哉？

重點是，美國如何管理全球性的蠶食變鯨吞。

澳媒︰中國運武器到南海人造島○自由 (2015.05.29)

〔編譯魏國金／綜合報導〕澳洲雪梨晨鋒報廿七日獨家報導，中國不僅在南海爭議性海域積極打造人工島礁，同時還運送武器到這些人造島嶼上，這使中國與美國及其區域安全夥伴，包括澳洲的對峙危機攀增，澳洲政府高層官員因而對中方的意圖表達迄今最強烈的關切。

報導指出，澳洲官員特別關切中國恐引進長程雷達、高射砲，並進行常規偵察飛行，致使中國可在包含澳洲最繁忙貿易航道在內的廣闊海洋，行使其軍事權力。這項消息是中國在南海擴展其海軍力量的最新跡象，僅在數天前，中國將其爭議性的造礁工程指稱是興建道路等一般建設，企圖轉移批評。

將武器運送至爭議性島嶼的舉措引發澳洲官員商討，是否出動澳洲海軍與空軍進行「航行自由」的任務，以展現坎培拉不接受北京日益強硬的南海主權宣示。報導說，包括飛行、航行該區，以及與其他區域夥伴進行聯合演習等相關措施，可望在未來兩週，官員向總理亞伯特進行簡報後具體化。

報導也指出，中國官員將澳洲對南海主權爭議不選邊站的立場視為是對中國的支持，然而，中國積極填海造陸促使澳洲國防情報組織以及國家評估局，各自於去年中向國家安全委員會（ＮＳＣ）提交重大戰略威脅評估時，皆使用強硬用語。預定於幾週後送交ＮＳＣ的戰略評估修訂版將顯示，若不加遏阻，中國的填海造陸將大幅增加其高壓威脅。

澳洲國防部長理查森（Dennis Richardson）廿七日晚間在雪梨一場論壇中表示，中國「空前的」填海造陸引發「意圖」的疑問，以及「誤判」的風險。這是自中國開始填海造陸以來，澳洲高層最詳細、直接的表達。

中國雖表示新造島嶼將用於人道、環保與漁業等目的，然而其本週發表的國防白皮書警告，將逐漸擴大近海防禦至包含「公海的保護」，並補充，將不能容忍其他國家的「干涉」。

澳洲將如何因應中國的挑戰是艱困難題。澳洲官員討論到必須展現澳洲不承認中國宣稱的領海範圍區，然而，中國是澳洲最大的貿易夥伴，澳洲極力避免觸怒中國。澳洲也可能與美國，或日本、馬來西亞與新加坡任一國，舉行人道或軍事演習，但坎培拉目前尚無相關計畫，澳洲也可能派遣船艦或軍機穿越爭議性海域，不過官員說，這樣的「展現」必須盡量低調，以免刺激中國。

China moves weapons on to artificial islands in South China Sea○Sydney Morning Herald (2015.05.28)

EXCLUSIVE

China has moved weaponry onto artificial islands that it is building in contested areas of the South China Sea, adding to the risks of a confrontation with the United States and its regional security partners including Australia.

Australian officials are concerned that China could also introduce long-range radar, anti-aircraft guns and regular surveillance flights that will enable it to project military power across a maritime expanse which include some of Australia's busiest trading lanes.

Fairfax understands that these concerns are prompting discussions in senior military circles that could lead to Australian naval officers and air force pilots embarking on "freedom of navigation" missions to demonstrate that Canberra does not accept Beijing's hardening claims.

The options, which include fly-throughs, sail-throughs and exercises involving various regional partners, are expected to crystallise after officials deliver a personal briefing to Prime Minister Tony Abbott during the next fortnight.

Already, diplomats have dropped "talking points" about Australia not taking sides in the multi-layered territorial contest, which Chinese officials have used as evidence of Australian support.

More substantially, Australia's intelligence agencies are upgrading the strategic threat assessments which will inform the Abbott government's first Defence White Paper, according to government sources.  Late on Wednesday, Australia's top defence official, Dennis Richardson, brought Canberra's growing concerns into public view by telling a Sydney forum that China's "unprecedented" land reclamations raise questions of "intent" and risks of "miscalculation".

"It is legitimate to ask the purpose of the land reclamation – tourism appears unlikely," said Mr Richardson, delivering the annual Blamey Oration at the New South Wales state Parliament.

"Given the size and modernisation of China's military, the use by China of land reclamation for military purposes would be of particular concern," he said.

The Defence Secretary's comments were the most detailed and forthright from a senior Australian official since China began building its audacious network of airstrips, deep-water ports and other military-capable infrastructure on previously submerged reefs in the Spratly Islands last year.

China says the new sand islands will be used for humanitarian, environmental, fishing and other internationally-minded purposes.

But it warned this week in its own Defence White Paper that it would gradually expand "offshore waters defence" to include "open seas protection", adding that it would not tolerate other countries "meddling".

In Canberra, Fairfax understands that China's frenetic building activity has prompted the Defence Intelligence Organisation and Office of National Assessments to adopt a more hawkish tone since they each delivered major strategic threat assessments to the National Security Committee of Committee (NSC) mid-last year.

Their revised strategic assessments, due to be submitted to the NSC in coming weeks, will show how the reclamations could enable China to greatly amplify threats of coercive force in order to play a gate-keeping role across hotly-contested maritime areas, if left unchecked.

What Australia should do about the challenge is a more difficult question.

Australian military officers and officials have discussed a need to demonstrate that they do not recognise any 12-mile territorial zone or more expansive economic zone that China may unilaterally claim around its freshly-minted islands.  But they are grappling with the need to avoid inflaming a potential confrontation Australia's largest trading partner.

Last week the United States demonstrated its position with a flyover by a P-8 surveillance plane, which carried a CNN journalist.

The voice of an Australian can be heard over the aircraft's radio.

Senior officers and officials have speculated that Australia could join a humanitarian or military exercise with the United States or one of several regional partners including Japan, Malaysia and Singapore.

Such a move has been discussed in Washington and key capitals in the region but no proposal has yet been put to Canberra, it is understood.

It could also dispatch naval vessels or air force planes through a contested area on route to a routine destination.

Officials say that any such "demonstration" is likely to be conducted with minimal publicity, to avoid inflaming China's reaction.

Mr Richardson, in his Sydney address to the Royal United Services Institute, said the area of previously-submerged atolls that China has reclaimed in the past year is nearly four times as large as that which the five other claimant states have achieved over several decades.

And he critiqued the nebulous nature of China's claims which, on some readings, cover more than 80 per cent of the entire South China Sea.

"It is not constructive to give the appearance of seeking to change facts on the ground without any clarification of actual claims," he said.

"It is legitimate to raise such questions and express such concerns because tensions and potential miscalculations are not in anyone's interest."

South China Sea dispute: all eyes on Singapore forum for US, China talk○Sydney Morning Herald (2015.05.28)

Hong Kong: China has been trading increasingly forceful barbs with countries including the United States on the South China Sea. Singapore, a neutral party on the contested waters, may provide the venue this weekend for talks about ways to defuse tensions.

While US Defence Secretary Ashton Carter and Chinese Admiral Sun Jianguo, a deputy chief of staff of the People's Liberation Army, will probably talk tough in their speeches to the annual Shangri-La Dialogue, behind closed doors there will be a chance at least for officials from Asian countries to meet.

Ministers and military chiefs will be at the forum where territorial spats in the South China Sea and East China Sea often loom large.  China is advocating a bigger role for its military in the region to reflect its economic and political clout, causing unease among smaller states that have long relied on the US to keep the peace.

This year's meeting comes at a point of high tension in the South China Sea, as China builds on reclaimed reefs and warns planes and ships to stay away from the area, prompting increased US patrols.  Carter set the tone for the US on Wednesday, calling for an "immediate and lasting halt to land reclamation by any claimant" and opposing "further militarisation of disputed features."

"On one hand the heating up of rhetoric is very disconcerting and it looks like we are at the cusp of a test of wills," said Nick Bisley, executive director of La Trobe Asia at La Trobe University in Melbourne, who has published a paper on China's participation at Shangri-La." On the flip side Shangri-La provides an opportunity to take some of the heat out of it."

Last year then-US Defence Secretary Chuck Hagel elicited a strong reaction from Chinese Lieutenant General Wang Guanzhong after he used his speech to describe China's actions in the South China Sea as destabilising.  Still, while the conference is arranged around formal plenary sessions, it provides a neutral setting for closed-door chats between delegations.

There are no plans for Carter himself to meet Chinese officials.  Still, while the tone of his remarks this week was tough, his words were carefully chosen, says Rory Medcalf, head of the National Security College at Australian National University in Canberra.

"There should be no mistake about this: The United States will fly, sail and operate wherever international law allows, as we do all around the world," said Carter.  He has requested his department look at options for more assertive US demonstrations of its right to freedom of navigation and flight transit.

"This was not an ultimatum, but one of the firmest statements yet of where America stands," said Medcalf.  "It is deliberately ambiguous about the detail but it is clear about America's broad commitment to freedom of navigation and oversight."

China last week challenged a US surveillance flight over the South China Sea.  No aircraft has entered China's claimed territory, Pentagon spokesman Steven Warren said last week.  Carter this week refrained from saying the US would fly or sail into the 12 nautical mile zones that China claims around some reclaimed reefs.

Since December, China has quadrupled to 800 hectares its land reclamation in the Spratlys, an operation described by one US admiral as a "great wall of sand."  The South China Sea is subject to competing claims by five other governments.

At the heart of the dispute is the interpretation of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, which has been ratified by China but not the US.  The US contends China's claims are ambiguous as maritime territory is derived from existing land features under UNCLOS and not from features that were previously submerged at high tide.

China says the reefs are its sovereign territory and it has the right to deploy facilities for military defence.

"However, the facilities on relevant islands and reefs are primarily for civilian purposes," Ouyang Yujing, director-general of the Department of Boundary and Ocean Affairs in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said in a May 26 interview with Xinhua.

Ouyang said China would invite countries and international organisations to use the "relevant" facilities for co-operation in search and rescue.

Geoff Raby, Australia's ambassador to China from 2007 to 2011, said: "There's always a risk of accident when people are flexing muscles and posturing, but the US and China have handled many crises before and through diplomacy and common sense managed to avoid anything getting out of hand."

"But equally as China exercises a more muscular diplomacy, it harms its longer term interests which is to balance US power and influence in the region because it just drives the other countries close to the US."

No matter what comes from the forum, the changing balance of power in Asia will ensure continued tensions, says Zhang Mingliang, a professor of Southeast Asian studies at Jinan University in Guangzhou.

"China wants more of a say in the region, while the US wants to assure its Asian allies that it's still a trustworthy superpower," Zhang said.  "There could be limited conflicts or frictions between the two countries in the South China Sea, but the risks can be contained as neither side would want their bilateral relationship to get out of control."