台日與美國間的萬仞宮牆

【Comment】

《華盛頓郵報》17日 Jackson Diehl 的文章，明顯有偏──並未查證所舉事件之內容，僅依據新聞標題而批評。連日本大使為本國辯護、白宮或國務院高層沒有日本管道都成為日本的問題。

如 Jackson Diehl 單單指責安倍增加國防預算，但陳破空的說明更廣泛「為什麼俄國會增加軍費？包括俄國、日本和韓國都在增加軍費？因為是中共在增加軍費。中國增加軍費使亞洲各國展開了軍備競賽，包括印度、菲律賓、越南、日本、韓國、甚至北朝鮮。還有俄國。」
但它是《華盛頓郵報》，刊登出來便是輿論的「事實」。

若《自由時報》所刊登安倍將一如阿扁屬實，則我們應該深思一個共同現象：日本與台灣派（前者在靖國前宣示不戰的原委、後者宣稱台灣人要獨立的心聲）都無法穿透白宮的萬仞宮牆。

難道雙方都是戰敗方？為何韓國可以？因為有朝鮮，這個中美共同敵人？

美媒警告安倍參拜靖國或引發嚴重安全危機○共同社（2014.02.18）http://tchina.kyodonews.jp/news/2014/02/69452.html

　　【共同社華盛頓2月17日電】美國《華盛頓郵報》17日發表評論文章警告稱，隨著日本首相安倍晉三參拜靖國神社，日本可能會在亞洲引發“對奧巴馬政府而言最嚴重的安全危機”。

　　文章還提到了奧巴馬總統的4月訪日計劃，指出“預防危機將在此行中占到重要位置”。

　　文章認為，安倍參拜靖國神社造成中韓與日本改善關係的可能性消失，日美關係也受到損害。文章還指出，中國的領導人對安倍政府抱有敵意，並認為奧巴馬和安倍之間也出現了隔閡，有可能嘗試動用實力來威懾日本。

　　文章提出了這樣的問題：“如果中國派士兵登陸（尖閣諸島、中國稱釣魚島），安倍會依靠《日美安保條約》嗎？如果安倍求救，奧巴馬是選擇站出來還是選擇退縮？”

　　《華盛頓郵報》12日也曾發表社論批評安倍政府在歷史認識上的態度。（完）

Japan’s provocative moves○WP（2014.02.17）By Jackson Diehl, Published: February 17

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/jackson-diehl-japans-provocative-moves/2014/02/16/142b22e4-9599-11e3-afce-3e7c922ef31e_story.html

Could Japan end up provoking the most serious national security crisis yet faced by President Obama?

That idea would have sounded preposterous a couple of years ago, when the Land of the Rising Sun was still the country that Americans have known it to be for the past two decades: gently aging; rich but stagnant; democratic but, because of chronically weak leadership, a non-factor in global and even regional security.

Japan, however, has a history of long periods of stagnation followed by bursts of rapid and sometimes disruptive change. Some who watch the country believe that Shinzo Abe, the conservative nationalist who became prime minister 14 months ago, is leading it into one of those dynamic and potentially dangerous eras.

In his first year in office, Abe successfully stimulated the economy, cultivated Japan’s neighbors and pursued closer security relations with the United States.  His first steps to strengthen Japan’s defense posture, such as increasing the arms budget and creating a national security council, looked sensible in the face of increased belligerence from China and North Korea.

In the past several months, however, Abe has appeared to pivot toward the hard-line nationalism that has always been an element of his political makeup.  He has managed to set off alarm bells not only in predictable places — China and South Korea — but inside the very U.S. administration he hoped to partner with.

The prime minister’s most conspicuous gesture was his visit on Dec. 26 to the Yasukuni shrine in Tokyo, which memorializes Japanese military dead, including convicted war criminals from World War II.  It was an act sure to escalate already considerable tensions with China, which a month earlier had unilaterally declared an air defense zone covering territory claimed by Japan, and it was undertaken with express disregard for high-level appeals from the Obama administration.

That same month Abe appointed four new directors to the 12-member board of Japan’s public broadcast network, NHK.  They soon began making headlines.  One declared that the 1937 Nanjing massacre by Japanese soldiers in China “never happened” and that U.S. trials of Japanese war criminals were staged to cover up U.S. crimes.  A second was revealed to have authored an essay claiming that, thanks to a ritual suicide by a right-wing militant, the Japanese emperor had become a deity.

Then there is the new head of the network, Katsuto Momii, who after belittling Japan’s history of enslaving “comfort women” said during his first news conference that NHK should not criticize the government on subjects such as nuclear power or Abe’s Yasukuni visit.

Momii was obliged to issue a partial retraction and Abe declared his support for media freedom.  Days earlier, however, Abe gave a speech at Davos saying that Japanese-Chinese relations faced a “similar situation” to that of Britain and Germany prior to World War I.

In the furor over all this, Japan’s ambassador to Washington, Kenichiro Sasae, made one undeniable point: “It is not Japan that most of Asia and the international community worry about,” he wrote in a Post op-ed.  “It is China.” Apart from the Koreas, that is true enough.  But Abe’s turn toward nationalism has made an Asian security crisis more likely, for three reasons.

First, the Yasukuni visit has destroyed any possibility of détente in Tokyo’s frozen relations with Beijing and Seoul. Both Chinese president Xi Jinping and South Korean president Park Geun-hye refuse to meet Abe.  Diplomatic and military contacts between Japan and China are virtually nonexistent, which is alarming in view of the ongoing dispute over a group of uninhabited islets that both nations claim.

Second, Yasukuni and its aftermath have also badly damaged relations between Abe and the Obama administration. One informed observer says a communications gap has opened up between Washington and Tokyo more profound than that even with Beijing.  U.S. officials believe they can no longer be sure of what Abe might do if tensions spike over the islets, or whether he would heed U.S. counsel in a crisis.  It doesn’t help that there are virtually no officials at a high level in the White House or State Department who have experience or close relationships with Japan.

The first two troubles lead to a potential third: that Chinese leaders will be moved by their animus toward Abe and their perception of a gap between him and Obama to provoke a test of strength.  What if Beijing were to deploy a flotilla of fishing boats around the rocks, or land a company of soldiers on them?  Would Abe seek to invoke the U.S.-Japan defense treaty?  If he did, would Obama step up — or back?

The president is scheduled to visit Japan in April as part of an Asia tour.  Though it won’t be on the official agenda, crisis prevention will be a big part of his mission.

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Read more on this topic: Fred Hiatt: Rocky waters between China and Japan could buffet America Cui Tiankai: Shinzo Abe risks ties with China in tribute to war criminals Kenichiro Sasae: China’s propaganda campaign against Japan The Post’s View: Japan’s historical revision deserves clarification from Prime Minister Abe