伊朗封鎖海峽，美國封鎖港口 Iran's Blockading the Strait vs. US's Blockading the Ports

【雙魚之論】
Geographically speaking, the U.S. isn't blockading the strait itself but is instead focusing on Iranian ports using long-distance tracking. The specifics—whether they will resort to inspections, boarding ships, or seizures—are still unknown.

當世界受苦時，中國忙著囤積 While the World Suffers, China Hoards

【雙魚之論】
The IEA’s March Oil Market Report noted that against the backdrop of rapidly declining domestic oil and gas inventories worldwide—following Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz—China’s inventories surged. In terms of growth rates: with the exception of Middle Eastern countries, whose stocks rose only because they were unable to export, global inventories fell by 85 million barrels, and Asian inventories overall dropped by 31 million barrels. China, however, saw a substantial increase of 40 million barrels—30% more than the total decline across the rest of Asia, and nearly half the magnitude of the global decrease. It is clear that as China becomes a rising power, it looks out only for its own interests.

貝森特：中國「一直是不可靠夥伴」 Bessent: China has been an unreliable partner

【雙魚之論】
"U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, regarded as the most authoritative interpreter of Donald Trump’s policies, stated in an interview that the message conveyed by Trump’s visit to China in May is one of 'stability.' This is a veiled phrasing; 'stability' implies that no definitive conclusions are expected to emerge from the summit.

美國印尼「主要防衛合作夥伴關係」的地緣戰略影響 Geostrategic Implications of the U.S.–Indonesia “Major Defense Cooperation Partnership”

【雙魚之論】
〈美印尼主要防衛合作夥伴關係（MDCP）成立聯合聲明〉
赫格塞斯與印尼方面宣佈建立國防合作夥伴關係 戰爭部 20260415
美國印尼「主要防衛合作夥伴關係」的地緣戰略影響　Geostrategic Implications of the U.S.–Indonesia “Major Defense Cooperation Partnership”

Singapore’s heightened anxiety over the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz appears, on the surface, to stem from developments in the Middle East. In reality, it reflects deeper strategic concerns about a potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait. In this sense, the Hormuz episode functions as a “rehearsal,” exposing Singapore’s vulnerability in the event of great-power confrontation.

赫格塞斯與印尼方面宣佈建立國防合作夥伴關係 戰爭部 20260415

【雙魚之論】
〈美印尼主要防衛合作夥伴關係（MDCP）成立聯合聲明〉
赫格塞斯與印尼方面宣佈建立國防合作夥伴關係 戰爭部 20260415
美國印尼「主要防衛合作夥伴關係」的地緣戰略影響　Geostrategic Implications of the U.S.–Indonesia “Major Defense Cooperation Partnership”

赫格塞斯與印尼方面宣佈建立國防合作夥伴關係    戰爭部 20260415

美國陸軍部長皮特·赫格塞斯今天在五角大廈歡迎印尼國防部長沙弗里·沙姆蘇丁到訪，兩人宣布兩國建立主要國防合作夥伴關係。

該夥伴關係將作為推動美國和印尼雙邊防衛合作的框架，以維護整個印太地區的和平與穩定。

「您的來訪表明，美國陸軍部非常重視我們與印尼日益密切的安全關係——而且這種關係正在不斷發展壯大，」赫格塞斯對沙姆蘇丁說道，隨後他指出，兩國每年共同完成超過 170 次軍事演習。

〈美印尼主要防衛合作夥伴關係（MDCP）成立聯合聲明〉

【雙魚之論】
〈美印尼主要防衛合作夥伴關係（MDCP）成立聯合聲明〉
赫格塞斯與印尼方面宣佈建立國防合作夥伴關係 戰爭部 20260415
美國印尼「主要防衛合作夥伴關係」的地緣戰略影響　Geostrategic Implications of the U.S.–Indonesia “Major Defense Cooperation Partnership”

 

美印尼主要防衛合作夥伴關係（MDCP）成立聯合聲明

2026年4月13日

美國戰爭部長與印尼國防部長宣布，美利堅合眾國與印度尼西亞共和國正式建立「主要防衛合作夥伴關係」（Major Defense Cooperation Partnership，簡稱 MDCP）。此宣布凸顯印尼在促進區域穩定方面的重要角色，並強調兩國雙邊防衛關係的堅實基礎與巨大潛力。

以毒攻毒：美國的反封鎖 vs. 英法的虛張聲勢 Tit for Tat: Dealing with Rogues the U.S. Way vs. the Anglo-French Facade

【雙魚之論】
Traditionally, the standard response to a blockade was a counter-blockade. However, the United States has gone a step further; for the first time in history, it is imposing blockade measures on those whom the blockading nation has selectively spared as part of its extortionary tactics. Since rogues only understand the language of force, the only way to deal with them is to "fight fire with fire."

反美者家屬的永久居留權與財富岌岌可危 Green Cards and Assets of Anti-American Relatives in Jeopardy

【雙魚之論】
In his book Smart Power, Joseph Nye argues that America’s greatest strength lies in the global appeal of its democratic lifestyle, followed by its network of allies. However, opportunists have exploited this, leading to the phenomenon where "living in the U.S. is the lifestyle, while opposing the U.S. is the career."

現代「天方夜譚」——評伊朗〈10點和平計畫〉 Modern The Arabian Nights: on Iran’s Peace draft

【雙魚之論】
On April 8, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council unveiled a so-called “Ten-Point Peace Plan.” Yet rather than serving as a genuine basis for negotiation, the proposal reads more like a politically driven declaration detached from reality—either formulated without prior working-level consultations or never intended for meaningful engagement, but instead aimed at consolidating domestic political interests.

台灣的政治危機，已經變成國安惡夢 Taiwan’s Political Crisis Is a Security Nightmare

【雙魚之論】
這是一篇描述台灣政治分化的概略性文章。
作者雖提及中國介入的因素，卻仍將國防特別預算問題爭議歸結於規模認定不同，實際上到最近的過去，不是討論委員會討論卡關而是不付委，根本還在國會的門外，甚至還為鄭麗文訪中而延遲審查。這樣的杯葛，不是政黨政策觀點不同，而是某些黨派受命後的自我繳械。

作為潛伏角色的國民黨主席 KMT Chairperson in the Role of a Mole

【雙魚之論】
What the author describes is the basic operational model of intelligence agencies: “pulling out and planting in” — recruiting the other side’s personnel for one’s own use, and infiltrating one’s own people into the opponent’s organization to let them grow and thrive. These personnel who have been “absorbed and utilized” will rise from the ranks at astonishing speed. Not only do they obtain outstanding academic credentials, but they also gain a wide range of valuable experience. The truly terrifying part is that within the organization, there are inevitably “our own people” who actively promote and elevate these absorbed individuals.

懦弱的丹麥 Denmark’s "Weak-Knee" Syndrome: A Lesson from History HoonTing

Denmark’s "Weak-Knee" Syndrome: A Lesson from History by HoonTing

At a time when the United States, Japan, and the European Union have reaffirmed that UN General Assembly Resolution 2758 does not determine Taiwan's status—emphasizing that Taiwan is not a province of China—Denmark, an EU member state, has inexplicably buckled. Following the lead of the South Korean government in February, Denmark has begun labeling Taiwan as "CHINA (TAIWAN)." There is little doubt that these changes are the result of relentless pressure from Beijing.

牽制美國，中國供給伊朗固態燃料 The Pinning Attack: China Supplies Iran with Solid Fuel to Restrain the US

【雙魚之論】
The Telegraph reports that four or five Chinese cargo ships have docked at Iranian ports since the start of the conflict, carrying sodium perchlorate, a critical precursor for up to 785 solid-fuel missile boosters. Of particular concern is the lack of any viable mechanism to intercept or halt these shipments.

失去理智轟鄰國，制裁伊朗恰得其所 Losing the Plot: Bombing Neighbors Makes Sanctions Against Iran Fully Justified

【雙魚之論】
Despite their gradual nature, economic sanctions against violators of international law and the rules-based order can prove more crippling than physical military strikes. The case of the UAE and Iran stands alongside the 2022 sanctions against Russia as a primary example. In light of the UAE’s status as Iran’s second-largest trading partner—accounting for 22.6% of its foreign trade ($28.2 billion) in 2024—strikes against Emirati as well as other countries’ civilian targets, including hotels and oil refineries, signal a breakdown in the Iranian regime’s governance. More accurately, it portrays the IRGC as a 'state within a state,' a rogue entity colonizing Iran from within.

革命衛隊：內部殖民與恐怖統治　Internal Colonization of the IRGC’s Terror

 

阿聯不忍了！港媒爆伊朗經濟命脈被砍斷「北京中鏢」全面封殺千億油資    三立 20260405

為報復工業設施屢遭攻擊，阿拉伯聯合大公國近期針對境內由伊朗操控的空殼公司展開強力掃蕩。此舉旨在切斷伊朗伊斯蘭革命衛隊的經濟命脈，並連帶阻斷透過香港、新加坡轉售石油的中國買家，藉此對德黑蘭施加致命打擊。

參議員訪問團：從「監護關係」到「夥伴關係」 Taiwan-US: From Guardianship to Partnership

【雙魚之論】
It’s beyond me, the coverage of the U.S. Senatorial delegation: Liberty Times and FTV shared the same headline but ran different stories. These were then copied exactly by MSN and Yahoo.

美國立法保護台灣電纜 The US makes laws to protect Taiwan's marine cables from China's intentional sabotage

【雙魚之論】
The Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) gray-zone sabotage tactics signifies a form of cowardly hostility — one that dares not launch outright war yet refuses to cease harassment.

參議員專機C-40的軌跡很不一般

革命衛隊：內部殖民與恐怖統治 Internal Colonization of the IRGC’s Terror

革命衛隊：內部殖民與恐怖統治　Internal Colonization of the IRGC’s Terror

Just as the CCP colonizes China and the Workers' Party colonizes North Korea, Iran is a nation internally colonized by the Revolutionary Guard (IRGC). These entities position themselves above the state, parasitizing national resources and the people’s interests while remaining exempt from national laws; they are essentially "states within a state" or terrorist organizations.
Otherwise, it would be inconceivable that, under such circumstances, the Revolutionary Guard would choose to attack neighboring countries in an attempt to retaliate against the world by escalating the conflict.
This is sheer vengeance, not a rational calculation. Therefore, the free world must track the names and movements of IRGC cadres at all levels, freezing their assets and pursuing them for trial on behalf of the Iranian people, no matter where they may hide.

一如「中共」殖民中國、「朝共」殖民朝鮮一樣，伊朗是被「革命衛隊」內部殖民的國家。他們都是在國家之上，寄生國家資源與人民利益而不受國法管制的「國中之國」或恐怖主義團體。
否則，根本無法想像在這情形下，革命衛隊會選擇攻擊周邊國家，企圖藉由擴大戰事來報復世界。
這是赤裸裸的復仇，並非理性計算。所以自由世界要標記各級幹部的名字與行蹤，替伊朗人民天涯海角凍結資產與逮捕受審。

將其塗成黑色：應對中國對台灣灰色地帶脅迫的非對稱方法 Paint it black: An asymmetric approach to China’s gray zone coercion of Taiwan David Sacks＠Brookings Institute 20260320

【雙魚之論】
China’s "gray-zone" incursions—formerly referred to as "salami slicing" or "creeping expansion"—are indeed a highly aggressive and advantageous tactic that has increasingly drawn the attention of international scholars and officials. On one hand, if Taiwan interprets these actions as precursors to a large-scale military operation, it cannot afford to take them lightly and must respond with conventional weaponry. This, however, results in unnecessary defense expenditures and delays in combat readiness, training, and other essential missions. On the other hand, if Taiwan categorizes them as mere harassment and opts for lower-cost monitoring via drones or other means, it risks allowing China to create a "fait accompli" through its incremental encroachment. Not only Taiwan, but Japan has also been affected. Meanwhile, the United States' posture of near-inaction has clearly emboldened Beijing, leading it to escalate its activities.

思考美國對台灣的基本優先事項 Thinking through America’s baseline priorities on Taiwan Kharis Templeman＠Brookings Insitute 20260320

思考美國對台灣的基本優先事項    Kharis Templeman＠Brookings Insitute 20260320

【雙魚之論】
The author Kharis Templeman presents an intriguing observation: neither the United States nor China wishes to go to war over Taiwan. However, the U.S. interest lies in preserving Taiwan’s autonomy, while China’s interest lies in restricting it. This creates a state of coercive bargaining, where each side attempts to shift the other's position while being unable to yield their own. Specifically, for the U.S., explicitly committing to protect Taiwan or abandoning military support would represent a fundamental change in stance that weakens its bargaining power. Similarly, if China were to renounce the use of force, it would be seen as accepting Taiwanese independence, thereby undermining its own position.