TRA下「台灣治理當局」的ROC與任何接替的當局 雲程 Defining the ROC, the governing authorities on Taiwan, and Its Successor Authorities Under the TRA Framework by HoonTing

【雙魚之論】
We can gain profound insights into Taiwan’s international status through the writings of John J. Tkacik Jr., which is precisely why I highly recommend his work.

星期專論》拒止：台海戰爭與台灣獨立 譚慎格＠自由 20260322

【雙魚之論】
This article is of paramount importance. It offers profound insights and eye-opening revelations regarding Taiwan’s status, which is precisely why I highly recommend the work of John J. Tkacik Jr.
這篇文章太重要了，我們可以從中學到與恍然大悟很多有關台灣地位的知識，這是我非常推薦譚慎格文章的原因。
有關格陵蘭　Grok：格陵蘭的自治（特別是二戰期間總督同意美國建立基地）
中立的丹麥被德國佔領時
豈止德國：代替希特勒被處罰的孩子！

星期專論》拒止：台海戰爭與台灣獨立    譚慎格＠自由 20260322

中國在台灣海峽戰爭中的最高目標，是將台灣併吞為中華人民共和國的一省。因此，國際社會承認台灣的法理獨立，正是中國領導階層極力防堵的結局。同理，美國若採取拒止中國達成該目標的戰略，將使北京的算計複雜化，有效嚇阻大規模的敵對行動。數十年來，中國不斷警告「台獨意味著戰爭」。不過，反之亦然：「戰爭也意味著台獨」。一套全面性的拒止戰略（strategy of denial）將可確保，在中國入侵或佔領台灣時，台灣仍可獲得法理獨立的結果，即使僅止於對一個淪陷國家的外交承認。

確保中國入侵 台灣仍可獲法理獨立

Terafab：沒有新典範豈有新工廠 No meaningful factory without a paradigm shift

【雙魚之論】
Elon Musk has announced "Terafab"—an initiative for self-developed and self-manufactured chips for internal use. What remained unclear initially was whether this represented a shift in business model (from pure-play foundry to in-house production), a change in manufacturing structure (from vertical disintegration to vertical integration), or an entirely new technological breakthrough.

中國不停新造人工島 意在封鎖海域 non-stop making islands, Beijing can block sealanes

【雙魚之論】
When facing a rogue opponent, to avoid continuous damage without any means of recourse, one must decide whether to maintain the conduct of a gentleman or at least acquire the capacity for self-defense. This is precisely the situation Vietnam faces regarding China’s persistent island-building in the South China Sea.

美國原油對台日韓國安的重要性 The Strategic Importance of U.S. Crude Oil to the National Security of Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea

【雙魚之論】
“Japan funding investments in Alaska and U.S. shale oil fields” has long been known—and Taiwan is doing the same.

以海盜手法繞過制裁 Bypassing Sanctions with Pirate-Like Tactics

【雙魚之論】
Just like with “blocking,” the key to “sanctions” still lies in their actual effective enforcement—otherwise, they are merely a piece of blank paper.

陸軍幫海軍：伊朗潛艦在家被HIMARS+PrSM擊沈 Land Power Strikes Sea: Iranian Sub Sunk in Port by HIMARS + PrSM

【雙魚之論】
Using HIMARS paired with ATACMS or PrSM the US and Israel forces sunk Iranian naval vessels in the port, including a KILO class submarine. This represents a new application of weapons and tactics. The CCP will surely feel the impact upon seeing this—it is essentially one of Taiwan's naval scenarios of "long-range precision strikes at the source." The other scenario involves striking the rocket forces' radars, launchers, rocket warehouses, and launch positions. This shows that the army can also contributes in naval and air warfare. No wonder the blue-white legislators in Taiwan are so insistent on blocking arms purchases from the U.S.

癱瘓憲法，國民黨立委翁曉鈴忠於誰？ Paralyzing the Constitution: To Whom Is KMT Legislator Weng Hsiao-ling Loyal?

癱瘓憲法，國民黨立委翁曉鈴忠於誰？Paralyzing the Constitution: To Whom Is KMT Legislator Weng Hsiao-ling Loyal?

【雙魚之論】
This article is heartbreaking to read. Because paralyzing another constitutional organ through legislation, yet providing no remedial measures, this matter turns the proposer Weng Hsiao-ling into a “motiveless destroyer of the constitution”—she is already disloyal to the ROC Constitution. The question is: to whom are she and her colleagues truly loyal?

本文讀起來痛心。因為以法律癱瘓他部門憲政機關卻無補救措施，這件事情使得提案人翁曉鈴成為「缺乏動機的憲政破壞者」——已經不忠誠於憲法。問題是，她與其同僚忠誠於誰？

憲法法庭不能停：總統直選三十年，從法律角度談民主韌性     楊貴智＠思想坦克 20260313

2024年12月20日，立法院三讀通過《憲法訴訟法》修正案，規定憲法法庭必須至少10名大法官參與評議，且作成違憲宣告時，同意人數不得低於9人。當時大法官大量出缺，這個門檻顯然無法達到。法案的設計者很清楚自己在做什麼：不用廢掉憲法法庭，讓它不出判決就夠了。一座無法裁判的法院，跟不存在沒有差別。

封鎖海峽以癱瘓美軍 Blocking the Strait of Hormuz: Paralyzing U.S. Military Operations in the Persian Gulf

封鎖海峽以癱瘓美軍　Blocking the Strait of Hormuz: Paralyzing U.S. Military Operations in the Persian Gulf
【雙魚之論】
As I mentioned earlier, Iran launched unprovoked attacks on neutral neighboring countries as a prelude to blocking the Strait of Hormuz. However, it now appears that Iran's ambitions go far beyond that: it seeks to completely seal off the strait through mine-laying and suicide drone boats, thereby fully isolating key U.S. military facilities in the Persian Gulf. These include Qatar's Al Udeid Air Base, Bahrain's Naval Support Activity Bahrain (headquarters of the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet), and Kuwait's Camp Arifjan (forward headquarters of U.S. Army Central, serving as the primary logistics, supply, and army command center). In other words, Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is aimed at completely paralyzing U.S. naval and land operations in the Persian Gulf.

為了封鎖海峽先攻擊鄰國---應懲罰伊朗的如意算 Punishing Iran’s Scheme: The Use of Aggression as a Pretext for Blockade

為了封鎖海峽先攻擊鄰國---應懲罰伊朗的如意算　Punishing Iran’s Scheme: The Use of Aggression as a Pretext for Blockade

【雙魚之論】
The strategic intent behind Iran's actions has come to light. The extensive mining of the Strait of Hormuz exposes why Iran initiated attacks against Gulf states regardless of their neutrality.
By manufacturing a state of war, Iran aims to establish a legal basis for blockading the strait. Victim nations across Europe and Asia must demand punitive damages for the economic harm incurred. This situation also provides the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force a pivotal role in clearing Iran’s mines.
原來如此，直到伊朗在荷姆茲海峽全面佈雷，我們才突然理解：為何伊朗要主動攻擊所有海灣國家——目的在造成武裝衝突，甚至戰爭的既存事實，以便為封鎖海峽建立法律藉口。
這樣的心思，受害國家（包括歐洲與亞洲國家）應該可以對其造成的經濟損害進行懲罰性求償。因為伊朗佈雷，日本海上自衛隊又有貢獻國際社會的機會了。

CNN：伊朗開始在荷姆茲海峽布雷 川普警告不清除將面臨軍事後果    自由 20260311

國民黨阻擋軍購 作者書生之見忽略了中共巨大的滲透力量 KMT Halts U.S. Arms Deals: The Author's Ivory-Tower Analysis Fails to See the CCP's Huge Infiltrating Influence

【雙魚之論】
The author discusses in theory the reasons why the Kuomintang opposes arms purchases. It's well organized, particularly in emphasizing that for small countries, armaments are meaningful in increasing the cost of aggression to deter invasion rather than seeking victory, thus making it still significant for small countries to strengthen their armaments.

美國戰爭部長皮特·赫格塞斯在美洲反卡特爾會議上的演講 戰爭部 20260305 Taimocracy翻譯

【雙魚之論】
In his speech at the Americas Counter Cartel Conference (held in conjunction with the Shield of the Americas initiative) on March 5, 2026, U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth highlighted a shift from defense to offense, the necessary use of military force in law enforcement contexts when required, the defense of geographic borders, a minilateral (small-circle) alliance combined with a unilateral fallback option, and the readiness to launch unilateral strikes when necessary. These points collectively illustrate America's new determination and the current phase of its policy.

「溫伯格主義」（Weinberger Doctrine）

【雙魚之論】
美國戰爭部長在雷根論壇提及「溫伯格主義」（Weinberger Doctrine）

美國戰爭部長皮特·赫格塞斯演講 Pete Hegseth＠雷根國防論壇 20251206 Taimocracy 翻譯
美國戰爭部長皮特·赫格塞斯演講 Pete Hegseth＠雷根國防論壇 20251206 Taimocracy 翻譯
20251215　余茂春受邀TAUP演講

20260307「美洲之盾」　Joint Security Declaration
20260307「美洲之盾」與美洲國家組織、門羅主義之關係　The Shield of the Americas vs. OAS and Donroe Doctrine
20260307「美洲之盾」啟動　Start of the Shield of the Americas

 

「溫伯格主義」（Weinberger Doctrine） 是美國軍事政策史上一個極具影響力的原則框架，由雷根政府時期（1981–1989）的國防部長卡斯帕·溫伯格（Caspar Weinberger）於1984年11月28日在華盛頓國家新聞俱樂部發表的演說《The Uses of Military Power》中正式提出。

PrSM的成功，國民黨必定拼死擋軍購 PrSM Success: KMT will Block Arms Purchases at all costs

【雙魚之論】
The PrSMs have done significant contribution in the attack on Iran 2-3 years before its scheduled deployment in 2027-2028. That is the commitment of Pete Hegseth’s famous remark, “the Arsenal of Freedom,” on December 19, 2025.“We mean to increase acquisition risk in order to decrease operational risk. Let me say that again — we mean to increase acquisition risk in order to decrease operational risk. By taking greater calculated risk in how we build, buy and maintain our systems, we will gain speed to more quickly provide capabilities to the battlefield.

20260307「美洲之盾」 Joint Security Declaration

【雙魚之論】
很有趣，看起來像是「行政協定」而非條約。優點是無須國會審核、反應較快速，甚至使用軍事武力對付以民為偽裝的毒品恐怖主義，缺點是其合法性基於行政部門的意願。
The signed Joint Security Declaration is available here.
Secretary Hegseth's remarks are available here.

The Shield of the Americas 的核心文件主要是 Doral Charter（多拉爾憲章），這是2026年3月7日在佛羅里達州Doral（Trump National Doral度假村）峰會結束時，由美國總統川普與參與國領導人共同簽署的宣言性文件。它也被稱為 Joint Security Declaration 或 Commitment to Countering Cartel Criminal Activity 的延伸形式。

20260307「美洲之盾」與美洲國家組織、門羅主義之關係 The Shield of the Americas vs. OAS and Donroe Doctrine

與美洲國家組織（OAS）的功能是否重複？
是的，有部分重疊但本質上不同，而且Trump政府刻意避開OAS的全面多邊框架。

• OAS（Organization of American States，美洲國家組織） 是1948年成立的正式多邊機構，涵蓋美洲35個國家（包括美國、加拿大、幾乎所有拉美與加勒比國家），功能廣泛：
• 促進民主、人權、選舉監督
• 區域安全、衝突調解
• 經濟合作、發展援助
• 集體安全條約（里約條約）
• 決策通常需共識或多數，包含左翼、中間、右翼政府

20260307「美洲之盾」啟動 Start of the Shield of the Americas

The Shield of the Americas（美洲之盾）是美國總統川普在2026年3月於佛羅里達州Doral（他的高爾夫球場）舉辦的一場峰會中正式宣布的一項多國安全與軍事合作倡議。

主要內容與目的

這項計畫的核心是建立一個區域性聯盟（有時被稱為「美洲反毒梟聯盟」或Americas Counter-Cartel Coalition），重點針對以下幾個議題：

國民黨積極反對台菲在印太軍事合作 KMT legislators refute Taiwan-Philippines Military Collaboration in the Indo-Pacific

國民黨積極反對台菲在印太軍事合作　KMT legislators refute Taiwan-Philippines Military Collaboration in the Indo-Pacific

【雙魚之論】
KMT Legislator Lai Shyh-bao, Jonathan Lin （賴士葆、林沛祥） have publicly opposed to Taiwan’s financing base renovations in the Philippines aimed at countering the PLA. Are they unaware that the Indo-Pacific strategy is an integrated whole, or have they become mouthpieces for Red China?

海戰與戰時國際法的生動教材 Naval Warfare and the Law of Armed Conflict: A Vivid Case Study

【雙魚之論】
The case of the sunken Iranian warship and the seeking refuge in neutral ports (India/Sri Lanka) is a practical lesson in international maritime law during wartime.

1. Duty to Rescue: Protecting survivors is a non-negotiable duty. They cannot be refused help or targeted for military reasons, regardless of their combatant status.
2. Neutral Port Limits: Refuge in neutral ports is restricted (usually 24 hours). Neutral nations must ensure their waters aren't used for military advantage. Rescued troops are typically interned to preserve the host's neutral status.
3. Rules of Capture: Capturing enemy ships on the high seas is allowed but requires humane treatment of survivors; capture of neutral vessels is strictly regulated.

伊朗軍艦被擊沈、進入中立第三國（印度、斯里蘭卡）港口尋求庇護等，是個戰時國際法的生動教材。
1.  救助優先：遇難者保護是絕對義務，不得因軍事考量拒絕或攻擊（即使敵方）。

2.  中立庇護有限：中立港口提供24小時臨時避難，但交戰方軍艦可同時停留中立港口，中立國須防止濫用；獲救戰鬥人員常被拘留以維持中立。

3.  拿捕有條件：公海拿捕敵方較自由，但須尊重遇難者；對中立方嚴格限制。

 

伊朗軍艦無處可去 由印度收留並安置183名船員    自由 20260307

洗錢天堂UAE要開始制裁伊朗 UAE, the money laundring heaven, is going to sanction Iran

【雙魚之論】
In the previous article titled 〈獨裁者必耗盡國家財富〉　Dictators Inevitably Deplete a Nation's Wealth, it is mentioned that the so-called sacred mission for long-term rule claimed by dictators is, in reality, merely an excuse to plunder national wealth.