牽制美國，中國供給伊朗固態燃料 The Pinning Attack: China Supplies Iran with Solid Fuel to Restrain the US

【雙魚之論】
The Telegraph reports that four or five Chinese cargo ships have docked at Iranian ports since the start of the conflict, carrying sodium perchlorate, a critical precursor for up to 785 solid-fuel missile boosters. Of particular concern is the lack of any viable mechanism to intercept or halt these shipments.

失去理智轟鄰國，制裁伊朗恰得其所 Losing the Plot: Bombing Neighbors Makes Sanctions Against Iran Fully Justified

【雙魚之論】
Despite their gradual nature, economic sanctions against violators of international law and the rules-based order can prove more crippling than physical military strikes. The case of the UAE and Iran stands alongside the 2022 sanctions against Russia as a primary example. In light of the UAE’s status as Iran’s second-largest trading partner—accounting for 22.6% of its foreign trade ($28.2 billion) in 2024—strikes against Emirati as well as other countries’ civilian targets, including hotels and oil refineries, signal a breakdown in the Iranian regime’s governance. More accurately, it portrays the IRGC as a 'state within a state,' a rogue entity colonizing Iran from within.

革命衛隊：內部殖民與恐怖統治　Internal Colonization of the IRGC’s Terror

 

阿聯不忍了！港媒爆伊朗經濟命脈被砍斷「北京中鏢」全面封殺千億油資    三立 20260405

為報復工業設施屢遭攻擊，阿拉伯聯合大公國近期針對境內由伊朗操控的空殼公司展開強力掃蕩。此舉旨在切斷伊朗伊斯蘭革命衛隊的經濟命脈，並連帶阻斷透過香港、新加坡轉售石油的中國買家，藉此對德黑蘭施加致命打擊。

參議員訪問團：從「監護關係」到「夥伴關係」 Taiwan-US: From Guardianship to Partnership

【雙魚之論】
It’s beyond me, the coverage of the U.S. Senatorial delegation: Liberty Times and FTV shared the same headline but ran different stories. These were then copied exactly by MSN and Yahoo.

美國立法保護台灣電纜 The US makes laws to protect Taiwan's marine cables from China's intentional sabotage

【雙魚之論】
The Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) gray-zone sabotage tactics signifies a form of cowardly hostility — one that dares not launch outright war yet refuses to cease harassment.

參議員專機C-40的軌跡很不一般

革命衛隊：內部殖民與恐怖統治 Internal Colonization of the IRGC’s Terror

革命衛隊：內部殖民與恐怖統治　Internal Colonization of the IRGC’s Terror

Just as the CCP colonizes China and the Workers' Party colonizes North Korea, Iran is a nation internally colonized by the Revolutionary Guard (IRGC). These entities position themselves above the state, parasitizing national resources and the people’s interests while remaining exempt from national laws; they are essentially "states within a state" or terrorist organizations.
Otherwise, it would be inconceivable that, under such circumstances, the Revolutionary Guard would choose to attack neighboring countries in an attempt to retaliate against the world by escalating the conflict.
This is sheer vengeance, not a rational calculation. Therefore, the free world must track the names and movements of IRGC cadres at all levels, freezing their assets and pursuing them for trial on behalf of the Iranian people, no matter where they may hide.

一如「中共」殖民中國、「朝共」殖民朝鮮一樣，伊朗是被「革命衛隊」內部殖民的國家。他們都是在國家之上，寄生國家資源與人民利益而不受國法管制的「國中之國」或恐怖主義團體。
否則，根本無法想像在這情形下，革命衛隊會選擇攻擊周邊國家，企圖藉由擴大戰事來報復世界。
這是赤裸裸的復仇，並非理性計算。所以自由世界要標記各級幹部的名字與行蹤，替伊朗人民天涯海角凍結資產與逮捕受審。

將其塗成黑色：應對中國對台灣灰色地帶脅迫的非對稱方法 Paint it black: An asymmetric approach to China’s gray zone coercion of Taiwan David Sacks＠Brookings Institute 20260320

【雙魚之論】
China’s "gray-zone" incursions—formerly referred to as "salami slicing" or "creeping expansion"—are indeed a highly aggressive and advantageous tactic that has increasingly drawn the attention of international scholars and officials. On one hand, if Taiwan interprets these actions as precursors to a large-scale military operation, it cannot afford to take them lightly and must respond with conventional weaponry. This, however, results in unnecessary defense expenditures and delays in combat readiness, training, and other essential missions. On the other hand, if Taiwan categorizes them as mere harassment and opts for lower-cost monitoring via drones or other means, it risks allowing China to create a "fait accompli" through its incremental encroachment. Not only Taiwan, but Japan has also been affected. Meanwhile, the United States' posture of near-inaction has clearly emboldened Beijing, leading it to escalate its activities.

思考美國對台灣的基本優先事項 Thinking through America’s baseline priorities on Taiwan Kharis Templeman＠Brookings Insitute 20260320

思考美國對台灣的基本優先事項    Kharis Templeman＠Brookings Insitute 20260320

【雙魚之論】
The author Kharis Templeman presents an intriguing observation: neither the United States nor China wishes to go to war over Taiwan. However, the U.S. interest lies in preserving Taiwan’s autonomy, while China’s interest lies in restricting it. This creates a state of coercive bargaining, where each side attempts to shift the other's position while being unable to yield their own. Specifically, for the U.S., explicitly committing to protect Taiwan or abandoning military support would represent a fundamental change in stance that weakens its bargaining power. Similarly, if China were to renounce the use of force, it would be seen as accepting Taiwanese independence, thereby undermining its own position.

只剩下洩憤？「中國遊客」在美國中央司令部放置炸彈 Nothing Left but Spite? "Chinese Tourists" Plant Bomb at U.S. Central Command

【雙魚之論】
An ordinary tourist can't identify, infiltrate, and sabotage—or more accurately, harass—MacDill Air Force Base, which serves as a critical command center for the U.S. military. The actions of these tourists were inevitably carried out under instructions from Beijing.

揭秘首個由 AI 領導的高階暗殺行動：Claude 與 Palantir 是如何擊殺哈梅尼的？ Unveiling the first high-level assassination operation led by AI: How did Claude and Palantir kill Khamenei?

【雙魚之論】
In June 2025, the United States and Israel executed a military operation codenamed "Operation Midnight Hammer," which left the world with the impression of global coordination and split-second precision in strategic joint warfare. However, the assault on February 28, 2026, codenamed "Operation Epic Fury," presented a much more blurred profile. All that is known is that the Iranian leadership was decimated, and their successors continued to be systematically eliminated—a pattern closely resembling the Israel Defense Forces’ (IDF) model of annihilation against Hamas in Gaza.

調整美國對台政策以適應新的戰略現實 Adapting US Taiwan policy for a new strategic reality Ryan Hass / Jude Blanchette 20260320

【雙魚之論】
This joint seminar hosted by the Brookings Institution and the RAND Corporation featured a critical review of diverse perspectives regarding U.S. policy toward China and Taiwan. Among the viewpoints presented, Jennifer Kavanagh’s proposal is the most detached from reality. She suggests that “Washington could use the pullback of its support for Taiwan’s defense to pursue a grand bargain with Beijing, whereby Beijing commits to engage in cross-Strait dialogue and reduce its military pressure against Taiwan.” Her recommendation is essentially a rehash of a failed historical policy—specifically the August 17 Communiqué of 1982—yet it is being repackaged as a fresh initiative to break the current deadlock and influence policy.

Fittingly, Matt Turpin’s article provides a robust rebuttal to this stance. He argues that “America’s declaratory policies on Taiwan were designed for a different era. America’s ‘One China’ policy and its posture of strategic ambiguity were compromises intended in part to secure China’s commitment to peaceful means in pursuit of unification.” He contends that China has effectively invalidated this approach through its massive military buildup and increasingly aggressive actions toward Taiwan.

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這Brookings Institute與RAND聯合舉辦的研討會，對美國的對中、對台政策有不同觀點的檢討。其中，Jennifer Kavanagh的「華盛頓可以利用減少對台灣國防支援的契機，與北京達成一項「大協議」，促使北京承諾開展兩岸對話並減少對台軍事壓力。」最脫離現實：其建議明明是證實失敗的政策歷史——即1982年的〈八一七公報〉，卻反過來以新姿態要解決僵局、影響政策。果然，Matt Turpin的文章以簡單的「美國對台政策的表態是為不同的時代而設計的。美國的「一個中國」政策及其戰略模糊姿態，部分是為了確保中國承諾以和平方式實現統一而做出的妥協。他認為，中國大規模的軍事擴張和日益咄咄逼人的對台行動，已經使這項策略失效。」做了堅實反駁。

調整美國對台政策以適應新的戰略現實 Adapting US Taiwan policy for a new strategic reality    Ryan Hass / Jude Blanchette 20260320

顏慧欣辭職信與加入CPTPP的被滲透 Yen’s resignation letter and the possible CCP’s infiltration

【雙魚之論】
Ever since President Tsai’s administration, Taiwan has paid lip service to joining the CPTPP, yet it has failed to make any actual progress—a situation that is deeply dubious. The reason for this is Taiwan’s own lethargy. This resignation letter might expose a few things, potentially even pointing toward an 'infiltration' plot by CCP.

台灣從小英總統時期起，表面上一直要加入CPTPP，實際上卻一直無法加入，甚至於也無進度一事，非常啟人疑竇。原因出在台灣方面的怠惰。這辭職封信，或許可以交代一些事情，甚至於「被滲透」的情節。

顏慧欣辭職信    EMMY追劇時間 20260327

「院長 鈞鑒，前年五月上旬，職有幸受邀參與國際經貿談判相關事務，非常期待能夠盡自己所能，為攸關台灣整體競爭力的重要政策貢獻一份心力。因而從長年服務的中華經濟研究院轉任此職，承蒙鈞長賦予重任，感到十分感激與榮幸。

不過，實際參與行政院貿辦（OTN）的工作後，職心中頗感憂慮。例如過去多次由國家領導人層級對外宣示的爭取加入CPTPP一事，實際上在執行層次充滿消極敷衍的態度，無具體計畫與時程；職在過去一年半多次提出建言，不但未獲採納，甚至遭到嚴厲駁斥。

又OTN自2007年設立至今已逾十八年，肩負如此重要的任務，卻仍屬任務編組性質，且完全沒有培養高階談判人才的制度，導致人才出現嚴重斷層；在決策流程與公文查考制度上，也有待強化。職雖一再提出建言，但始終未獲接納。身為副手，職也反覆思考，該如何在不違反行政倫理的前提下，向鈞長報告這些情況。後因台美關稅談判開始，職權衡情勢輕重，暫時擱置了這個念頭。

然而，近日因健康因素，經醫師診斷與綜合評估後，必須自即日起辭去公職，專心調養身體。雖然萬分珍惜您所託付的責任，也深感能夠全力以赴、竭誠奉獻是一種榮幸，但我也必須考量自身狀況，避免影響OTN的運作效能。因此，懇請鈞長准予即日起辭職。未來若身體康復，而台灣仍有需要，我必當竭盡所能，不負所望。

陳永康：武獲流程

星期專論》伊朗與委內瑞拉對台灣的啟示 費學禮＠自由 20260315

【雙魚之論】
Both Richard Fisher’s article and the subsequent article by John Tkacik coincidentally mention the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) aggression and Taiwan’s government continuity plans (also known as a government-in-exile). This involves the “recognition of government” under international law, which in turn leads to an implied “recognition of statehood,” or at least the “recognition of belligerency” under the laws of war. As a result, Taiwan would possess all the qualifications of a quasi-state entity.

TRA下「台灣治理當局」的ROC與任何接替的當局 雲程 Defining the ROC, the governing authorities on Taiwan, and Its Successor Authorities Under the TRA Framework by HoonTing

【雙魚之論】
We can gain profound insights into Taiwan’s international status through the writings of John J. Tkacik Jr., which is precisely why I highly recommend his work.

星期專論》拒止：台海戰爭與台灣獨立 譚慎格＠自由 20260322

【雙魚之論】
This article is of paramount importance. It offers profound insights and eye-opening revelations regarding Taiwan’s status, which is precisely why I highly recommend the work of John J. Tkacik Jr.
這篇文章太重要了，我們可以從中學到與恍然大悟很多有關台灣地位的知識，這是我非常推薦譚慎格文章的原因。
有關格陵蘭　Grok：格陵蘭的自治（特別是二戰期間總督同意美國建立基地）
中立的丹麥被德國佔領時
豈止德國：代替希特勒被處罰的孩子！

星期專論》拒止：台海戰爭與台灣獨立    譚慎格＠自由 20260322

中國在台灣海峽戰爭中的最高目標，是將台灣併吞為中華人民共和國的一省。因此，國際社會承認台灣的法理獨立，正是中國領導階層極力防堵的結局。同理，美國若採取拒止中國達成該目標的戰略，將使北京的算計複雜化，有效嚇阻大規模的敵對行動。數十年來，中國不斷警告「台獨意味著戰爭」。不過，反之亦然：「戰爭也意味著台獨」。一套全面性的拒止戰略（strategy of denial）將可確保，在中國入侵或佔領台灣時，台灣仍可獲得法理獨立的結果，即使僅止於對一個淪陷國家的外交承認。

確保中國入侵 台灣仍可獲法理獨立

Terafab：沒有新典範豈有新工廠 No meaningful factory without a paradigm shift

【雙魚之論】
Elon Musk has announced "Terafab"—an initiative for self-developed and self-manufactured chips for internal use. What remained unclear initially was whether this represented a shift in business model (from pure-play foundry to in-house production), a change in manufacturing structure (from vertical disintegration to vertical integration), or an entirely new technological breakthrough.

中國不停新造人工島 意在封鎖海域 non-stop making islands, Beijing can block sealanes

【雙魚之論】
When facing a rogue opponent, to avoid continuous damage without any means of recourse, one must decide whether to maintain the conduct of a gentleman or at least acquire the capacity for self-defense. This is precisely the situation Vietnam faces regarding China’s persistent island-building in the South China Sea.

美國原油對台日韓國安的重要性 The Strategic Importance of U.S. Crude Oil to the National Security of Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea

【雙魚之論】
“Japan funding investments in Alaska and U.S. shale oil fields” has long been known—and Taiwan is doing the same.

以海盜手法繞過制裁 Bypassing Sanctions with Pirate-Like Tactics

【雙魚之論】
Just like with “blocking,” the key to “sanctions” still lies in their actual effective enforcement—otherwise, they are merely a piece of blank paper.