【雙魚之論】
就在美國東時間4/27，川普將接待查爾斯國王進行的國事訪問，結果在訪問前兩天4/25川普再度遭受槍手企圖刺殺。幾此都是「孤狼犯案」？此次若被得逞，查爾斯國王能來美國還是不能？我對孤狼一說，很不以為然。特別是4月28日星期二上午的活動冠蓋雲集，維安可能要升級到NORAD層級。
美國總統唐納德·J·川普和第一夫人梅拉尼婭·川普將歡迎大不列顛及北愛爾蘭聯合王國國王查理三世陛下和王后卡米拉陛下進行國事訪問
白宮 20260425
美國總統唐納德·J·川普和第一夫人梅拉尼婭·川普將於2026年4月27日星期一至4月30日星期四在華盛頓特區迎接大不列顛及北愛爾蘭聯合王國國王查理三世陛下和王后卡米拉陛下進行國事訪問。這次訪問是川普政府第二任期內的首次正式國事訪問。
聯兵部隊在全球範圍內對阿曼灣實施海上封鎖
戰爭部 20260424
上週，美國軍方對途經荷姆茲海峽的船隻實施了海上封鎖，這些船隻曾在伊朗港口與伊朗進行貿易往來，或正駛往伊朗港口。
美國戰爭部長皮特·赫格塞斯今天在五角大廈舉行的新聞發布會上表示，封鎖仍在繼續，並且變得越來越有效、越來越強大。
【雙魚之論】
It is widely recognized that "Taiwan's vulnerability is no longer a
hypothesis, but a reality unfolding before our eyes." Yet, there are Anti-nuclear
movement/activists that exist solely for a single objective, holding the stance
that they would rather have no electricity than support nuclear power. One
cannot help but wonder: is their inflexibility and failure to recognize the
changing circumstances born of ignorance, or are they covertly echoing
Beijing’s conspiracy to impose an energy blockade on Taiwan?
【雙魚之論】
領空飛越權在戰時是非常重要的，可以節省許多交涉時間，從而能不失時機。
美國印尼防長會面 宣布建立重要國防夥伴關係
中央社 20260414
美國戰爭部長赫格塞斯今天在五角大廈會晤印尼國防部長夏弗里後宣布，與印尼建立重要國防夥伴關係。
【雙魚之論】
Only after October 7, 2023, the day Hamas invaded Israel, did I truly
realize the intentional intellectual dishonesty of the media and the
self-proclaimed 'progressives.' They attack Israel for its strikes on Gaza but
give a free pass to Hamas’s crimes and its cynical use of civilians as human
shields. These regional destabilizers—Hamas, the Houthis, and Hezbollah—are
proxies of Iran, which is itself supported by China and Russia. I have lost all
faith in those who manipulate facts and ignore causality.
【雙魚之論】
經濟制裁的效果是很大的，只是時間會拖長，而且也會有制度漏洞可鑽，必需要來回幾輪修正與增加。
經濟怒火瞄準伊朗飛彈和無人機採購網路
財政部 20260421
Economic Fury
Targets Iranian Missile and UAV Procurement Networks
額外制裁對象還包括與伊朗馬漢航空有關的實體，該公司曾為伊朗政權運輸武器。
華盛頓—今天，美國財政部外國資產管制辦公室（the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC)對14名個人、實體和飛機實施制裁，這些個人、實體和飛機分別位於伊朗、土耳其和阿拉伯聯合酋長國（阿聯），原因是它們參與了代表伊朗政權採購或運輸武器或武器部件的活動。隨著美國持續削弱伊朗的彈道飛彈庫存，伊朗政權正試圖重建其生產能力。伊朗越來越依賴「沙赫德」（Shahed）系列單向攻擊無人機（UAV）來攻擊美國及其盟友，包括該地區的能源基礎設施。這些制裁措施旨在支持「經濟怒火」（Economic Fury）行動，以應對伊朗政權對全球安全的持續威脅。
【雙魚之論】
The US supports Morocco’s full sovereignty over its southern provinces in
Western Sahara.
美國支持摩洛哥對於西撒哈拉的完全主權，有意思～
美國和摩洛哥簽署新的國防合作路線圖 MWN 20260416
拉巴特—美國和摩洛哥簽署了一項新的國防合作路線圖，塑造了兩國在關鍵領域之一的夥伴關係。
【雙魚之論】
Following the United States’ signing of the Major Defense Cooperation
Partnership with Indonesia, it has now signed the Defense Cooperation Roadmap
2026–2036 with Morocco. The former addresses the Sunda Strait, the Lombok
Strait, and overflight rights in Indonesian airspace, while the latter at least
concerns the Strait of Gibraltar. All of these are critical global maritime
chokepoints.
美國繼與印尼簽署〈主要防衛合作夥伴關係〉後，與摩洛哥簽署〈國防合作路線圖2026-2036〉。前者處理巽他海峽、龍目海峽、領空飛越權，後者至少是處理直布羅陀海峽。這些都是全球海運咽喉。
*******************
2026年4月16日，美國與摩洛哥簽署了一項新的十年期國防合作路線圖（Defense Cooperation Roadmap
2026–2036），這是兩國在安全與軍事領域最主要的近期合作協議。
主要內容與意義：
【雙魚之論】
The actions of the blue and white camps (KMT and TPP) in the Legislative
Yuan have already been incorporated into the new version of the "Taiwan
Relations Enhancement Act" as part of the Chinese Communist Party’s
definition of gray-zone warfare and coercion against Taiwan. Naturally, the
next step will be to treat the blue and white camps
as "hostile groups," with their key activists naturally regarded as
"enemies."
【雙魚之論】
Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz to collect transit fees. Records show
that 80 ships were released at a fee of $2 million each, which should have
generated $160 million in revenue. However, not a single dollar was actually
received. Could this be intentional? Reports suggest it was due to flawed
process design.
【雙魚之論】
Geographically speaking, the U.S. isn't blockading the strait itself but
is instead focusing on Iranian ports using long-distance tracking. The
specifics—whether they will resort to inspections, boarding ships, or
seizures—are still unknown.
【雙魚之論】
The IEA’s March Oil Market Report
noted that against the backdrop of rapidly declining domestic oil and gas
inventories worldwide—following Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz—China’s
inventories surged. In terms of growth rates: with the exception of Middle
Eastern countries, whose stocks rose only because they were unable to export,
global inventories fell by 85 million barrels, and Asian inventories overall
dropped by 31 million barrels. China, however, saw a substantial increase of 40
million barrels—30% more than the total decline across the rest of Asia, and
nearly half the magnitude of the global decrease. It is clear that as China
becomes a rising power, it looks out only for its own interests.
【雙魚之論】
"U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, regarded as the most
authoritative interpreter of Donald Trump’s policies, stated in an interview
that the message conveyed by Trump’s visit to China in May is one of
'stability.' This is a veiled phrasing; 'stability' implies that no definitive
conclusions are expected to emerge from the summit.
【雙魚之論】
〈美印尼主要防衛合作夥伴關係（MDCP）成立聯合聲明〉
赫格塞斯與印尼方面宣佈建立國防合作夥伴關係 戰爭部 20260415
美國印尼「主要防衛合作夥伴關係」的地緣戰略影響 Geostrategic
Implications of the U.S.–Indonesia “Major Defense Cooperation Partnership”
Singapore’s heightened anxiety over the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz appears, on the surface, to stem from developments in the Middle East. In reality, it reflects deeper strategic concerns about a potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait. In this sense, the Hormuz episode functions as a “rehearsal,” exposing Singapore’s vulnerability in the event of great-power confrontation.
【雙魚之論】
〈美印尼主要防衛合作夥伴關係（MDCP）成立聯合聲明〉
赫格塞斯與印尼方面宣佈建立國防合作夥伴關係 戰爭部 20260415
美國印尼「主要防衛合作夥伴關係」的地緣戰略影響 Geostrategic
Implications of the U.S.–Indonesia “Major Defense Cooperation Partnership”
赫格塞斯與印尼方面宣佈建立國防合作夥伴關係
戰爭部 20260415
美國陸軍部長皮特·赫格塞斯今天在五角大廈歡迎印尼國防部長沙弗里·沙姆蘇丁到訪，兩人宣布兩國建立主要國防合作夥伴關係。
該夥伴關係將作為推動美國和印尼雙邊防衛合作的框架，以維護整個印太地區的和平與穩定。
「您的來訪表明，美國陸軍部非常重視我們與印尼日益密切的安全關係——而且這種關係正在不斷發展壯大，」赫格塞斯對沙姆蘇丁說道，隨後他指出，兩國每年共同完成超過 170 次軍事演習。
【雙魚之論】
〈美印尼主要防衛合作夥伴關係（MDCP）成立聯合聲明〉
赫格塞斯與印尼方面宣佈建立國防合作夥伴關係 戰爭部 20260415
美國印尼「主要防衛合作夥伴關係」的地緣戰略影響 Geostrategic
Implications of the U.S.–Indonesia “Major Defense Cooperation Partnership”
美印尼主要防衛合作夥伴關係（MDCP）成立聯合聲明
2026年4月13日
美國戰爭部長與印尼國防部長宣布，美利堅合眾國與印度尼西亞共和國正式建立「主要防衛合作夥伴關係」（Major Defense Cooperation Partnership，簡稱 MDCP）。此宣布凸顯印尼在促進區域穩定方面的重要角色，並強調兩國雙邊防衛關係的堅實基礎與巨大潛力。
【雙魚之論】
Traditionally, the standard response to a blockade was a
counter-blockade. However, the United States has gone a step further; for the
first time in history, it is imposing blockade measures on those whom the
blockading nation has selectively spared as part of its extortionary tactics.
Since rogues only understand the language of force, the only way to deal with
them is to "fight fire with fire."
【雙魚之論】
In his book Smart Power, Joseph Nye argues that America’s greatest
strength lies in the global appeal of its democratic lifestyle, followed by its
network of allies. However, opportunists have exploited this, leading to the
phenomenon where "living in the U.S. is the lifestyle, while opposing the
U.S. is the career."
【雙魚之論】
On April 8, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council unveiled a so-called
“Ten-Point Peace Plan.” Yet rather than serving as a genuine basis for
negotiation, the proposal reads more like a politically driven declaration
detached from reality—either formulated without prior working-level
consultations or never intended for meaningful engagement, but instead aimed at
consolidating domestic political interests.
【雙魚之論】
這是一篇描述台灣政治分化的概略性文章。
作者雖提及中國介入的因素，卻仍將國防特別預算問題爭議歸結於規模認定不同，實際上到最近的過去，不是討論委員會討論卡關而是不付委，根本還在國會的門外，甚至還為鄭麗文訪中而延遲審查。這樣的杯葛，不是政黨政策觀點不同，而是某些黨派受命後的自我繳械。
