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2025-07-10

上百光電板殘骸漂水面 滯洪池淪垃圾場

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【雙魚之論】
發電的模式很多,政府卻獨沽一味(或少數),實在不是理性的與負責任的政策。
日前傳出海上光電發展計劃的光電結構被颱風吹毀。業者說,尚未裝設光電板,故無污染之餘。廠商可能沒說謊,海上的測試尚未裝上光電板,但魚電共生部分,一定受到很大的損害。
今日傳出,位於水塘(滯洪池)上、魚電共生的光電板,受到摧殘而不堪使用。照片歷歷在目。

又根據7/10台電的發電紀錄,光電輸出最高是1240192.4MW5.993%)。相對以往光電約佔20%的比例,顯見此次颱風光電受到極大損害,對環境衝擊很大。風電約5.4MW,也比以往低。
現在,陸地光電的受損如何還沒傳出來,風電也是,我們耐心等著。

現在衍生的後續會是,光電廠商的金流難以為繼台電無法支付、廠商或要支付給契約提供者。

震撼空拍!上百光電板殘骸漂水面 滯洪池淪垃圾場    東森新聞 20250710

丹娜絲颱風過境,加上低壓帶、西南風影響,狂風暴雨造成嚴重災情。不只造成屏東佳冬鄉外海太陽光電系統浮台「打水漂」,成海廢漂流超過1公里,嘉義新塭太陽能板同樣受損嚴重。空拍畫面拍下光電板的殘骸漂浮在水面,滯洪池淪為垃圾場,慘烈畫面震撼各界

2025-07-09

12級風就會掛掉的台南光電,疑點重重!



【雙魚之論】
沒有無缺點的發電方式,我們總是在權衡優缺點中,以比例與漸進的調整和介入光電的抗風設計強度37.5 m/s12風力),實際上發生的是48.7 m/s15級)。雲林更出現17級(56.161.1 m/s)陣風。
12級風力,是否為歷史記錄中最大程度?很大,但不是最大。那,發生過幾次?實際上丹娜絲襲台雲林口湖17級陣風 台南風速創站史第3強紀錄顯然,設計者與審核者有疏失—或許是為了節省成本,過於樂觀看待環境條件

嘉義新塭光電場砸2.88億! 完工2年遭丹娜絲摧毀 空拍畫面曝    TVBS 20250708

颱風丹娜絲摧毀南台灣,影響最大的就是「太陽能光電」,光電場集中在台南、嘉義沿海,在布袋就有一處台電規劃、委外建置的案場,經費高達2.88億元,但完工不到2年,就被颱風侵襲!另外台南北門還有居民抱怨,明明身處在「全台最大的太陽能場」,卻停電3天了。

廠商保證對抗風浪,實際不堪一擊,「老天」如是說!

【雙魚之論】
任何人為的開發,一定產生也必須承受「環境成本」,但人們總自然的捍衛既成結論,主張自己的結論只有優點沒有缺點。這當然是「以假做真」。光電要到海上、湖塘去發展,當然是在陸地發展遇上面積、環境、徵收、農業干擾、微氣候衝擊等問題。於是「魚電共生」成為美麗的憧憬。
假設沒有經過此次颱風測試,業者與部分人一定會無視颱風的風險,繼續聲稱能抵擋7-14公尺的風浪,以及1762.5 m/s強風。測試的枋寮及佳冬位於加祿堂北方,是台灣防衛反登陸的要地。再來,又會要以國防作為推廣的依據吧。

颱風重創離岸太陽光電浮台!設施殘骸滿佈屏東海岸    自由 20250707

丹娜絲颱風重創西部海岸,屏南旭東環保科技負責執行經濟部核定的離岸太陽光電系統浮台技術開發計畫,因颱風來襲,導致浮台設施損壞,沿枋寮及佳冬近岸散落一地,畫面令人觸目驚心。

極端氣候,只對核電產生影響?「學者」如是說!

【雙魚之論】
看到法國、瑞士部分地區核電廠因極端氣候,河水因升溫而無法有效冷卻,甚至也會排放過高溫水影響生物而被迫關機,反核學者據以主張核能不可靠。但,極端氣候的影響是全面性的。假如歐洲的熱浪跑到台灣來... 台灣的火力發電廠(燃煤與LNG)也會關機。

歐洲河流熱到變溫水!瑞士、法國核電廠「無法冷卻」被迫關閉    NOWnews 20250704

歐洲近期持續遭熱浪襲擊,多地氣溫飆破40度,刷新歷史高溫紀錄,由於河水升溫,法國、瑞士的核電廠被迫降低發電量或完全關閉。

風電波動如此劇烈,所以更可靠?「學者」如是說!



對於心有定見的人而言,什麼事物都可以認知為支持自己的既成主張。一張颱風前後的風電輸出圖,明明短時間的起伏非常大,而且7/6快一整天幾乎無電力輸出。網友質疑「請問這張圖是否解讀成:不單基座能承載,連葉片、軸承等發電單元,都能負荷瞬時瞬減的風量,相較於核能更具有可靠性」?宣傳的學者卻能強辯是的

發電的途徑很多,每項都有優缺點,甚至於台灣還要加上戰爭的風險。因此,選擇實體、比例、地理、模式分散的發電模式,才是合理的因應。過半資源押注在容易被封鎖的發電方式,顯然思考上是有基本弊病。完全忽視此基本弊病,並堅持意見不容討論,可說是意圖削弱台灣社會韌性,從而成為北京侵略時的協作者

不偏廢的分散各種發電方式,才是可行與持久的。

呂布的命運:出身與選擇之間的修羅場 李忠憲

【雙魚之論】
這篇貼文很深的觀察到出身 vs. 選擇。出身既然無法改變,那就不要刻意改變急切於改變,會出事的,因為會選擇一些奇怪的手段
人家說,作自己就好,這是除了做自己,自己也無法過別人的樣子和生活。但這是原則論,真正的考驗在面臨抉擇的那一瞬間,實際上做什麼抉擇。
這也是為何所有道德、哲學、宗教都強調:戒、律,及聖戰文字很簡單,但實踐很困難
人必須經歷一場一場的抉擇,最後才能面對自己,而理解和體會這個自己和每個自己,其實並無差別。

呂布的命運:出身與選擇之間的修羅場    李忠憲

那一天和李中志教授吃飯,解答我心中的一個疑問:為什麼他當北美洲台灣人教授協會(NATPA)會長的時候,2015 年頒發的第一屆「廖述宗教授紀念獎」,同時頒給了史明和黃國昌?

2025-07-08

漢光41/10天9夜演習史上最長

漢光41109夜演習史上最長    NOWnews 20250708

國軍「漢光41號」演習將於79日至18登場,從54夜延長到109夜,創史上最長漢光演習,以聯合作戰計畫為基礎,檢視各戰術層級指揮官臨機決策、參謀組織計畫作為及部隊聯戰行動執行效能並納入持久戰想定,結合城鎮韌性,將動員2萬後備軍人,創史上人數最多。

演習想定規劃自灰色地帶襲擾起,區分平戰轉換、備戰部署、聯合反登陸、濱海暨灘岸戰鬥、縱深防禦、持久作戰等作戰階段,完整演練防衛作戰各項軍事行動與軍民整合作為。

德國偵察機遭中國軍方雷射攻擊 德外交部召見大使抗議 中央社 20250708

【雙魚之論】
2018年報導稱中國船隻在吉布提用雷射瞄準美國飛行員。20222月,解放軍軍艦以雷射照射澳洲P-8A飛行員。20232月,中國海警以軍用雷射攻擊菲律賓海巡船隻船員,使人員短暫失明。
因為中國海巡以雷射攻擊他國船員的灰色行為未被其政府制止,所以一再發生。無論中國周邊海域,澳洲北部海域,現在是紅海。這也意味著中國海警行為的普遍性。
菲律賓控中國海警船照射軍事級雷射光船員暫時失明
澳洲國防部指控:解放軍軍艦「雷射照射」P-8A 嚴重危害安全

德國偵察機遭中國軍方雷射攻擊 德外交部召見大使抗議    中央社 20250708

中國露馬腳 維持俄羅斯戰爭態勢,以利於自己的侵略擴張

【雙魚之論】
In a recent meeting with the EU, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi stated that “China cannot accept Russia’s failure in the Ukraine war,” as it would jeopardize the stability of Russia’s anti-Western regime. This statement confirms the existence of a “Coordinated Strategic Diversion” between China and Russia. This coordination extends beyond the Ukraine-Russia conflict, revealing a broader blueprint of China’s national strategy. For Xi Jinping, invading Taiwan, alongside simultaneous offensives against the Philippines, Okinawa, and South Korea, is critical to legitimizing his extended tenure as both President and Party Chairman. Failure to act or a failed action during his extended term would undermine the legitimacy of his leadership and continued rule, with severe consequences. To safeguard these personal interests, China must at least sustain Russia’s ability to prolong the war, thereby reinforcing the importance and necessity of Xi’s grip on power domestically and China’s influence internationally.
In response, the West has long recognized this trend and is taking steps to prevent the “arc of instability” from coalescing and causing further disruption. Additionally, the West is imposing economic and technological sanctions on China to further erode its capacity and support for waging war.
中國外長王毅近日在與歐盟會議中表達了「中國無法接受俄羅斯在烏克蘭戰爭中失敗」(China cannot afford for Putin to fail, as this would threaten the stability of the anti-Western regime in Russia)一語,確認了是中俄間確實存在「協同戰略分流」(Coordinated Strategic Diversion)。此協同不僅僅是為了烏俄戰爭,更展現一種中國國家戰略的宏圖。對習近平而言,侵略台灣,以及同步進攻菲律賓、沖繩、南韓等,是攸關國家主席與黨主席延任的正當性基礎。若在延任的任期內沒有行動,或行動失敗,其掌權與延任的正當性就消失了。後果會非常嚴重。為此私利,中國至少要維持俄羅斯延續戰爭的態勢,才能保持自己(習近平在中國、中國在國際社會)掌權的重要性與必要性。
相對的,西方早就看出這態勢,因此,一步一步防止「不安定弧」的串連生事,並且對中國展開經濟與科技的制裁,進一步削弱中國發動戰爭的能力與奧援。

中國戰略底牌曝光! 王毅布魯塞爾會談:無法接受俄羅斯戰敗    三立 20250707

2025-07-07

20250601蜘蛛網行動 俄國已無前線後方之分,中國也一樣

【雙魚之論】
Ukraine's military operation coded "Spider Web," as its name suggests, is a multi-pronged, deep-penetrating offensive campaign spanning the vast expanse from Murmansk to Vladivostok. This highly innovative operation leverages Russia’s internal highway network, demonstrating remarkable strategic flexibility.
The "Spider Web" operation dismantles the traditional distinction between frontlines and rear areas, effectively constituting a combined "containment" and "psychological" warfare campaign launched by Ukraine against Russia. The battlefield is no longer confined to eastern Ukraine. While Russia may establish checkpoints along its highway network, such measures would significantly hamper logistical efficiency, thereby slowing its economic momentum.
From a geopolitical perspective, the optimistic assumption that Russia would focus solely on Europe while China dominates East Asia may no longer align with new reality. This operation also serves as a "deterrence" strategy, sending a sobering message to Beijing to refrain from aggressive actions in regions like the Taiwan Strait.

「蜘蛛網」命名的軍事行動,顧名思義,是一場多點並發、深入敵境的進攻作戰,涵蓋從莫曼斯克到海參崴的廣闊範圍。這項行動極具創意,充分利用俄羅斯境內的公路網絡展開,展現了高度的戰略靈活性。
「蜘蛛網」行動打破了傳統的前線與後方界限,等同於烏克蘭對俄羅斯發動了一場兼具「牽制戰」與「心理戰」的複合攻勢。戰場不再侷限於烏東地區,俄羅斯雖可在公路網增設檢查哨,但此舉將大幅降低物流效率,進而拖累經濟運作。
從地緣戰略視角觀之,原本設想俄羅斯專注歐洲、中國主導東亞的樂觀格局,或已不再符合現實。這場行動同時也是一種「嚇阻」策略,讓中國獲得震懾效果,不要在台海等地冒進。

俄空軍史上最大挫敗!烏稱「蜘蛛網行動」炸41戰機 萬里外海參崴也挨轟    新頭殼 20250602

日本將向菲律賓出口「阿武隈」級護衛艦


【雙魚之論】
援助退役軍艦簡單,但要教會操作較為困難。簡單的作法是美日菲人員混合編組,可以在最短時間形成戰力並與盟國協同作戰。

加強威懾大陸!日本將向菲律賓出口中古護衛艦 預定今夏檢視船艦    聯合 20250706

在美國的兩個盟友日本菲律賓加強合作對抗中國之際,日本讀賣新聞今天報導,日本將向菲律賓出口多艘中古護衛艦,強化對中國海上擴張行動的威懾力。

2025-07-06

雙生颱風??結果(台北)風平浪靜,等待回馬槍???





習近平攻打台灣前將先知會普亭牽制歐洲!北約秘書長警告陸犯台劇本 聯合 20250706

【雙魚之論】
星期專論》轟炸伊朗對亞洲是件好事 馬明漢(Michael Mazza)@自由 20250706
20250704 俄羅斯承認為塔利班阿富汗合法政府
應對中共擴張:日美同盟重返戰後地緣政治框架 雲程 HoonTing
為一個目標,東亞戰略已經全數整合為一個戰區
北約峰會 關切台灣
伊朗核彈:來料代工

習近平攻打台灣前將先知會普亭牽制歐洲!北約秘書長警告陸犯台劇本    聯合 20250706

紐約時報雜誌5日刊出北約秘書長呂特的專訪,呂特高度讚賞美國總統川普對於北約軍費改革的貢獻,並罕見地提及台灣與中國大陸情勢,強調印太地區與大西洋安全已密不可分。呂特警告,若中國國家主席習近平決定攻打台灣,將首先通知並要求俄羅斯總統普亭同步對北約發動攻擊以牽制歐洲,各國唯有強化軍費與印太協作,才能有效嚇阻中俄聯動挑戰。

星期專論》轟炸伊朗對亞洲是件好事 馬明漢(Michael Mazza)@自由 20250706

【雙魚之論】
The author lays bare China’s sense of impotence and bluster. Unless China matches its words with deeds, its “final warnings” will increasingly fail to convince the world. Yet, should China act on these warnings, it risks staking its regime’s survival.
It is well known that in geostrategy, a “zone of instability” exists at the intersection of sea and land power. East Asia, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe lie along this “arc of instability.” Communist and authoritarian states such as China, North Korea, Iran, and Russia are precisely those situated on this arc, persistently challenging the Western world. The Western world, rooted in democratic values, struggles to comprehend that communist regimes prioritize propaganda, intimidation, cognitive manipulation, and subversion, with weapons serving as mere props to enhance these efforts, never intended for actual use.
Since World War II, the West has fallen into the propaganda traps set by communist states, not only surrendering but also introspecting and dutifully offering up targeted technological and financial achievements.
We observe that Russia, Iran, China, and North Korea are preparing to undertake sequential military actions in their respective regions in the short term. Their aim is not to wage war but to exhaust the Western alliance with threats of war, at most pursuing limited blitzkrieg operations to secure significant territorial gains.
Leaders like Reagan and Trump, who believe in strength and wield it decisively when necessary, defy the Western leadership archetype envisioned by communist states. Consequently, the United States has refrained from direct military involvement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, instead collaborating with NATO to provide weapons and training. Regarding Iran, the U.S. has partnered with Israel to neutralize its nuclear ambitions and eliminate Hamas in Gaza. These two critical decisions have effectively disrupted the Russia-Iran-China-North Korea axis along the “arc of instability.” In other words, individual events cannot coalesce into a favorable strategic landscape for these states, nor will they precipitate a world war. China now hesitates.
Therefore, the U.S. adopts “deterrence” as its strategic objective toward China, extending beyond mere “freedom of navigation” missions. By containing Russia and suppressing Iran’s belligerence from afar, the U.S. induces hesitation in China. In time, the Chinese Communist Party will collapse under its own weight.

作者將中國的無力感與吹噓暴露無遺。往後,除非說到做到,否則「中國最後的警告」越來越難取信世界。但,中國若要履行其「最後的警告」,正巧是拿政權做為堵住
眾所周知,在地緣戰略上海權陸權對峙交界有條「不安定弧」,東亞、中東、東歐位在這「不安定弧」上。中朝、伊朗、俄羅斯等共產與威權國家正好就是「不安定弧」上的國家,長期挑戰西方世界。以民主黨價值為主西方世界,缺點就是無法理解共產黨是以宣傳為上,以嚇唬對手、塑造對手認知、顛覆為主,武器是用來襯托前者的精美道具,從來不是拿來使用的。
二戰以後的西方世界中了共產國家的宣傳圈套,不僅束手就擒,還深自反省並乖乖奉上針對的技術成就與金融成果。
於是我們看出來,俄國、伊朗、中國、朝鮮準備短時間內在周遭先後進行軍事行動,在讓西方陣營疲於奔命,不是想發動戰爭,而是威脅要發動戰爭,頂多是著眼閃電戰,目的在獲取極大的領土利益
雷根、川普等。他們相信實力,必要時毫不猶豫展現出來,不是共產國家所設定的西方領袖。於是,美國絕不以軍隊涉入烏俄戰爭,僅攜手北約提供武器與訓練。對於伊朗,則攜手以色列解決核武發展並殲滅加薩的哈瑪斯。這兩件重大決策,徹底隔絕「不安定弧」的俄伊中朝串連一線的企圖。換言之,個別的事件無法形成對他們有利的局面,也不會導致世界大戰。中國現在遲疑了。
因此,美國以「嚇阻」為對中戰略目標,不僅只在執行「自由航行」任務而已,而更遠在天邊拖住俄羅斯、鎮住伊朗的戰火,最後讓中國遲疑。然後,中共自會垮台。

星期專論》轟炸伊朗對亞洲是件好事    馬明漢(Michael Mazza)@自由 20250706

當六月初中東情勢升溫之際,五角大廈內部有些人反對美國介入以色列與伊朗的戰爭,認為此舉將會分散美國對真正挑戰—中國—的注意力與資源投入。這種看法完全錯誤。事實上,對美國的亞洲政策而言,轟炸伊朗是所有可能情境中最好的發展。

2025-07-05

20250704 俄羅斯承認為塔利班阿富汗合法政府

【雙魚之論】
The timing is strikingly ironic: on the United States’ Independence Day, Russia formally recognized the Taliban’s “Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan,” a regime governed by a supreme leader under the banner of Islamic theocracy, devoid of separation of powers, clear legal frameworks, and mired in internal disorder. Contrary to expectations that China would be the first to fill the vacuum left by the U.S. withdrawal and recognize the new Afghan government, it was President Putin who took the lead.
From a geopolitical perspective, Putin’s announcement—following reports that he dismissed warnings from Russian intelligence agencies and sought to stabilize Russia’s partnership with China—appears aimed at safeguarding Russian interests in Central Asia while counterbalancing the regional influence of Iran and China. However, under international law, “premature recognition” of a new regime is generally viewed critically. If the recognized entity fails to maintain effective control or collapses, the recognizing state risks entanglement in legal and diplomatic complications.
Notably, while most states have refrained from formally recognizing the Taliban’s “Emirate,” many have chosen not to evacuate their embassies in Kabul, opting instead to remain and monitor the situation. The “Emirate,” for its part, has refrained from interfering with these diplomatic missions, seemingly awaiting broader international recognition. What does this situation suggest?
Historically, a parallel can be drawn to April 23, 1949, when the Chinese Communist forces entered Nanjing, the Capital of the Republic of China. By then, Chiang Kai-shek’s Nationalist government had already initiated a “phased evacuation and decentralized operations,” rendering its administrative structure fragmented and unsustainable, even before the formal establishment of the People’s Republic of China on October 1. Many foreign embassies chose to remain in Nanjing to observe developments rather than follow the Nationalist government’s relocation to Guangzhou, Chongqing then Chengdu.
By December 1949, the Nationalist government had retreated to Taiwan, proclaiming itself the “Republic of China.” However, foreign embassies did not relocate to Taipei. Even the unique case of the Vatican’s diplomatic mission never established an ambassadorial presence in Taipei. This indicates that, unlike during the Nanjing period, the international community did not widely recognize Chiang Kai-shek’s Taiwan-based regime as the “sole legitimate government representing China.” Despite Chiang’s declaration on March 1, 1950, to “resume duties,” his regime was regarded merely as a point of contact for post-war Allied affairs, not a sole legitimate governmental entity.
Another noteworthy case is the Afghan ceasefire in February 2020, during which the Biden administration issued a joint statement with the “Islamic Republic of Afghanistan” while simultaneously signing a peace agreement with the Taliban’s “Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.” The U.S. explicitly affirmed the “Islamic Republic” as a sovereign state and UN member, recognized as legitimate, while referring to the “Islamic Emirate” with the cumbersome designation: “the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, which is not recognized by the United States as a state and is known as the Taliban.” This phrasing categorizes the “Emirate” as a “belligerent” or “non-sovereign entity.” For Taiwanese observers, this bears a striking resemblance to the U.S. designation in the Taiwan Relations Act, which refers to Taiwan as “the governing authorities on Taiwan, recognized by the United States as the Republic of China prior to January 1, 1979.” In other words, the U.S., through domestic legislation, treats Taiwan as a “non-sovereign entity” with the status of a “belligerent.”

此事頗具諷刺意味:俄羅斯選擇在美國國慶日正式承認一個由最高領袖以神權名義統治、缺乏權力分立與明確規則、內政混亂的塔利班「阿富汗伊斯蘭酋長國」。原本預期中國會是填補美國勢力撤退後的空缺而首先承認阿富汗新政府,事實反倒是普丁率先出手。
地緣政治上,普丁在新聞〈報導稱普丁拒絕聽信俄國情報單位的警告,持續試圖和中國穩定夥伴關係〉後宣告承認阿富汗,表面上意在保護俄羅斯在中亞地區的利益,骨子裡也可制衡伊朗與中國等國的區域影響力。然而,國際法對「過早承認」新政權通常持負面態度。理由是,若被承認的政權無法維持有效控制,甚至最終崩潰,過早承認的國家可能陷入法律與外交困境。
更值得注意的是,儘管多數國家尚未正式承認塔利班的「酋長國」,但許多國家的駐喀布爾大使館並未撤離,而是選擇留守觀察局勢。「酋長國」方面也未侵犯各國使館,似乎在等待國際社會的正式承認。這是怎樣一種情境?
回顧歷史,1949423日,中國共產黨軍隊攻入中華民國首都南京,當時蔣介石領導的國民政府已提前實施「分批疏散、分地辦公」,政府架構難以整合統一,不待稍後中華人民共和國於101日的建政,中華民國已是崩潰狀態。許多國家的駐南京大使館選擇留守觀察,而未隨國民政府遷往廣州、重慶或成都。
1949
12月,國民政府最終敗退台灣,雖自稱「中華民國」,但各國大使館並未隨之遷台。甚至連較為特殊的「梵蒂岡」使館也從未在台北設立大使級駐點。這表明,國際社會並未如同在南京時期一般,普遍承認遷台的蔣介石政權為「代表中國的唯一合法政府」。即使蔣介石於195031日宣布「復行視事」,其地位也僅被視為盟軍戰後事務的聯絡對象,而非完整的合法政府實體。
另一個值得關注的現象是,阿富汗停火案例中,拜登政府在2020229日同時與「阿富汗伊斯蘭共和國」發表聯合聲明,並與塔利班的「阿富汗伊斯蘭酋長國」簽署和平協議。美國明確表示「共和國」是作為聯合國會員國,是美國認可的主權國家,具備合法地位;相對的,美國則以冗長的措辭稱「酋長國」為「美國不承認其為國家、通常被稱為塔利班的阿富汗伊斯蘭酋長國」(the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, which is not recognized by the United States as a state and is known as the Taliban),意即視其為「交戰團體」或「非主權實體」。做為台灣人,不免回顧美國在台灣關係法中對台灣的冗長稱呼,即「台灣統治當局(197911日前美國承認其為中華民國)」(the governing authorities on Taiwan, recognized by the United States as the Republic of China prior to January 1, 1979)。換言之,美國以國內法律承認台灣是具「交戰團體」地位的「非主權實體」。
1949101日毛澤東的抉擇

塔利班執政首獲承認 俄羅斯認可為阿富汗合法政府    中央社 20250704

阿富汗塔利班(Taliban)政府今天宣布,俄羅斯成為第一個正式承認其統治的國家,還說俄羅斯此舉是「勇敢的決定」。