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2025-03-24

馮京當馬涼 「明顯且即刻的危險」(Clear and Present Danger)不是『直接與即時威脅』(direct and immediate threat)

【雙魚之論】英文拷到 G / D 找中文翻譯
Professor Lo Shih-hung(羅世宏), the chairman of the Taiwan Fact-Check Center and a professor in the Department of Communication at Chung Cheng University, should exercise greater caution when offering legal opinions, especially since his expertise lies outside the fields of law or political science.

  1. He stated that the deportation of a Chinese spouse advocating for military unification was based on Article 20, Paragraph 1 of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR), which stipulates, "Any propaganda for war shall be prohibited." This is incorrect. In fact, the legal basis is the "Regulations Governing the Residence, Long-term Residence, or Settlement of People from the Mainland Area in the Taiwan Area Based on Family Dependency," specifically Article 14, Paragraph 1, Item 4, which allows for the revocation of residence permits if there is "a risk of endangering national security or social stability." Therefore, it is not the case that there are no specific penalties, nor does it fall under an "concept of legal uncertainty."
  2. He also advocated "speech involving national security should further prove it poses a 'direct and immediate threat.'"
    In fact, this standard originates from the well-known 1919 U.S. Supreme Court case Schenck v. United States (249 U.S. 47), which established a test for restricting free speech under the First Amendment of the US Constitution. The court ruled that speech could only be limited if it presents a "clear and present danger," particularly in emergency situations involving national security or public order. This decision became a landmark ruling.
    The judgment famously stated: "The most stringent protection of free speech would not protect a man in falsely shouting fire in a theatre and causing a panic. It does not even protect a man from an injunction against uttering words that may have all the effect of force. The question in every case is whether the words used are used in such circumstances and are of such a nature as to create a clear and present danger that they will bring about the substantive evils that Congress has a right to prevent. It is a question of proximity and degree."

To clarify: Professor Lo’s claim of a "direct and immediate threat" may superficially resemble the U.S. Supreme Court’s "clear and present danger" standard, but "direct and immediate threat" is not a classic legal test explicitly named in Supreme Court precedents. In contrast, "clear and present danger" is the more widely recognized term in legal discussions, academic analyses, and specific contexts.

台灣的事實查核中心董座、中正大學傳播系羅世宏教授,在發表法律見解時理應更謹慎,特別是其非法律或政治專業。

1.  羅說將鼓吹武統的中配遞解出境用的是國際條約ICCPR 20條第1項的「任何鼓吹戰爭的宣傳應予禁止」。錯,其實是〈大陸地區人民在台灣地區依親居留長期居留或定居許可辦法〉,第14條第1項第4款「有危害國家安全或社會安定之虞」得廢除居留許可。所以不是沒有具體罰則,或也不屬於「不確定法律概念」
2. 
羅說「牽涉國家安全之言論,更應證明其具『直接與即時威脅』(direct and immediate threat)」。
其實,這個標準是1919年美國聯邦法院在Schenck v. United States249 U.S. 47)案中對於言論自由的標準,必須是在「明顯且即刻的危險」(Clear and Present Danger下,才能限制。尤其是在涉及國家安全或公共秩序的緊急狀態下。此判決成為經典。
判決中有「對言論自由最嚴格的保護,也不會保護一個人在劇院中謊稱起火並引發恐慌……問題在於,這些言論是否在特定環境下,具備製造明顯且即刻危險的性質,並可能帶來實質性的惡果,而這種危險是國會有權防止的。
要釐清的是:羅教授聲稱的「direct and immediate threat」(直接且即刻的威脅)雖然與美國聯邦最高法院判決「clear and present danger」(明顯且即刻的危險)外觀相似,但「direct and immediate threat」並非最高法院判例中經典的法律測試名稱,反而「clear and present danger」(明顯且即刻的危險)是更廣泛出現在法律討論、學術分析或某些具體情境中。

武統中配「亞亞」離境期限將至!事實查核中心董座:裁定有瑕疵    三立 20250324

移民署近期調查曾主張武統言論的陸配,「亞亞」劉振亞遭廢止在台居留許可,要求在收到處分書後10日內限期離境。事實查核中心董座、中正大學傳播系羅世宏教授認為,北高行政法院引用「兩公約」第20駁回亞亞聲請停止執行的裁定有瑕疵,「未能充分展現法院應有的保護人權的擔當。」

20250322 日中外相會談,有講變沒講/沒講變有講

日中外相会談    日本外務省 20250322

 322日午後210分から約55分間(同時通訳)、岩屋毅外務大臣は、日中韓外相会議出席のため訪日中の王毅(おう・き)外交部長と日中外相会談を行ったところ、概要は以下のとおりです。

日本:戴高樂可以演習,不可靠港

【雙魚之論】英文拷到 G / D 找中文翻譯
Japan, the United States, France and others are conducting combined military exercises, yet Japan won’t allow France’s nuclear-powered aircraft carrier to dock? Japan is truly too hypocritical. Well, then just use the U.S. military facilities at Yokosuka.
It’s probably all for the sake of smoothly holding the Japan-China-South Korea foreign ministers’ meeting, which hasn’t happened in six years, that Japan is choosing to go along with China’s intentions.
In the end, the script for the Japan-China foreign ministers’ talks was, as expected, twisted by China. And issues like the discharge of treated water from the Fukushima plant and the ban on marine products remain stalled as well.
Habitual compliance is never a good strategy. The side that wants to get angry will always find a reason, so Japan really needs to think this over carefully.

日美法等開展聯合演習,但日本卻不允許法國核動力航艦靠港?日本實在是太虛偽了。那就靠橫須賀的美軍設施吧。
大概就是為了舉辦暌違6年的日中韓外長會議能夠順利,所以日本選擇順從中國的意向。
結果日中外長會談的稿子,一樣是被中國扭曲。而且福島電廠處理水排海問題,以及水產被禁,一樣是延宕不前。
習慣性順從,從來不是好的策略。想生氣的一方永遠找得出理由,日本可要好好想一下。

日本去年未同意蔡英文訪日 擔憂中方反對    共同社 20250321

2025-03-23

與文明為敵 中國首度公開海纜切割器

【雙魚之論】英文拷到 G / D 找中文翻譯
The Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) public promotion of a submarine cable cutter is a profoundly reckless decision. Undersea cables are not military assets; they are critical infrastructure underpinning global communication, economic stability, and, by extension, human civilization itself. Nations connected to these cables have a vested interest and responsibility to safeguard them due to the tangible benefits they provide. Even countries that do not directly rely on specific cables lack any legitimate reason to target them for destruction.
Consequently, the CCP’s development and open announcement of such a device reveal a deep-seated animosity toward humanity as a whole, effectively positioning all nations as potential adversaries. This move undermines global trust and cooperation, raising serious questions about intent. The immediate concern now centers on implementation: Which vessels will be equipped with these submarine cable cutters? Are these devices designed for flexible installation, potentially adaptable to any ship above a certain tonnage?

中共公開宣傳海底電纜切割器,實在不智。海纜並非軍事資產,而是支撐全球文明與福祉的基礎建設。連接國因為直接受益的關係,有保護的義務,即使並非受益國,也無理由加以破壞。
因此,中共的發明與公布,只能認為其根深蒂固的敵視全球,將所有國家視為敵國
現在的問題是,哪些船會被設置海底電纜切割器?其可被機動設置在任何一定噸位以上的各種船隻上嗎?

中國首度公開海纜切割器 恐動搖全球海權格局    新頭殼 20250323

根據《南華早報》 22 報導,中國首次對外公布其研發的一款緊湊型海底電纜切割器。由於該裝置性能強大,北京如今具備切斷全球通訊網絡影響全球海權格局的能力。

林保華大哉問:鬧事中配的老公在哪裡?

【雙魚之論】英文拷到 G / D 找中文翻譯
I have noticed the phenomenon where there are Chinese spouses but no Taiwanese husbands in media reports, yet I have not formed any observations or opinions on it.
In practice, no matter how strict the preventive measures are, there will always be individuals who exploit loopholes in the system to enter Taiwan and lie low, waiting for opportunities to carry out propaganda, espionage, sabotage, or influence operations for the CCP. However, a well-designed system can effectively identify them control the depth and scope of such infiltration.

對此現象有中國配偶,卻無台灣丈夫的現象,我有察覺但未形成觀察和意見。
實務上,無論怎樣防堵,總會有利用制度漏洞的人入境台灣潛伏,針對台灣伺機為中共進行宣傳、竊取、破壞、影響等工作。但,制度設計得好,卻可以控管潛伏的深度與廣度。

林保華觀點》鬧事中配的老公在哪裡?    林保華@新頭殼 20250323

鬧事要武統台灣的中配近來一直佔據媒體的版面。例如亞亞(劉振亞)、後來又冒出小微、恩綺等等,他們因為武統言論被撤銷在台灣的居留權。在這以前,也有中配因為要參與立委的選舉,也引發不少爭議,他們雖然移居台灣,但是沒有認同台灣的價值觀,效忠對象仍然是台灣的敵國,中共控制下的中國

餐廳相遇同桌吃飯 台美2024與2025「海上不預期相遇」

網傳我「玉山艦」受美軍海上供油 顧立雄:以海上不期而遇規則應處    自由 20250321

社群媒體「TikTok今(21)日有一支我國「玉山軍艦」疑似在海上接受美軍支援艦供油的畫面在網路上廣傳,由於內容涉及台、美軍事互動發布平台已遭美國海軍禁用多年,造成熱議。對此,國防部長顧立雄、海軍司令部稍早表示,相關情形將會依照「海上不預期相遇行動準據」,和他國艦艇通聯並實施操演

19770907〈關於巴拿馬運河永久中立和營運條約〉 Taimocracy翻譯 20250207

 

19770907〈關於巴拿馬運河永久中立和營運條約〉/ Taimocracy翻譯 20250207

19770907〈巴拿馬運河條約〉 Taimocracy翻譯 20241223

【雙魚之論】英文拷到 G / D 找中文翻譯

19770907〈巴拿馬運河條約〉 Taimocracy翻譯 20241223

2025-03-22

大家不想戰爭,但獨裁者會硬幹

【雙魚之論】英文拷到 G / D 找中文翻譯
Sir Ka-shing Li’s deal not only encompasses two ports at both ends of the Panama Canal but a massive $22.8 billion transaction that involves the "bundled sale of 43 ports across 23 countries." The impact of this deal is significant: it effectively dismantles the port network of the so-called Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), or at least the part tied to military-civil fusion. This represents a major strategic setback for Xi Jinping, given that the BRI is a flagship initiative he launched.
Equally noteworthy are other developments: Panama’s withdrawal from the BRI, the recent docking of U.S. and Japanese warships at Cambodia’s Ream Naval Base, and the Democratic Republic of Congo inviting U.S. troops to counter China in exchange for access to rare earths and copper resources. These events cannot be viewed as isolated incidents.
The BRI, a strategic plan Xi Jinping has championed since 2013, has now suffered a significant breach, and his fury is understandable—especially as he approaches a potential fourth term, where this could pose a serious obstacle. Failing to secure another term would mean not just stepping down but also facing arrest, death sentence, and confiscation of assets. Consequently, in 2027, Xi might resort to creating a crisis to bolster his grip on power and ensure a smooth path to re-election.
A line from the report, "backed by a large group of elite families dissatisfied with Xi," suggests the existence of a faction within the Chinese Communist Party signaling goodwill toward the U.S.—likely a group also intent on safeguarding their overseas assets. This stance puts them in direct conflict with Xi Jinping.

李嘉誠這比交易,不僅涵蓋巴拿馬運河兩端出口的兩個港口,整體交易是228億美元「打包出售23個國家的43個港口」。其效果是所謂的一帶一路的港口網路,至少是軍民融合的部份,就破了。這樣是習近平重大的戰略損失,因為一帶一路是習近平發起的。
同樣重要的是巴拿馬退出一帶一路、柬埔寨雲壤基地近日有美國與日本軍艦停靠,以及民主剛果以稀土、銅礦產等為代價邀請美軍進駐以抗衡中共等。因此不能視為單一事件。
一帶一路是習近平2013年起力推的戰略規劃,出現重大破口後震怒自是當然,特別是習近平要邁入第四任期,會成為阻力。無法繼續連任意味者不僅是下台,更是被捕、被抄家。因此,2027年習近平極可能以製造事端提高危機以保護其連任之路順利。
報導中一句「背後有一大幫對習不滿的權貴家族支持」,聽起來就像是中共內部對美示好的一派,當然也是為了保住自己海外資產的一群人。這立場又和習近平是直接衝突的。

李嘉誠賣巴拿馬港口涉中共高層政爭    大紀元 20250320

香港億萬富翁李嘉誠在宣布向美國財團出售其巴拿馬運河港口等資產後,成為中共的攻擊目標,中共在港喉舌《大公報》連批李嘉誠。旅澳學者袁紅冰引自中共體制內消息指,中共黨魁習近平親自發動對李嘉誠的大批判,據知中共試圖讓國企介入交易,李嘉誠沒理會,而李嘉誠要這樣做,背後有一大幫對習不滿的權貴家族支持

中共批判李嘉誠 傳習親自發動

2025-03-19

豈是瘋子,很燒腦的 馬斯克重要訪談:長達兩個小時

 

台灣有事=先島有事 證據表明,中共覬覦沖繩南方的先島諸島

台灣有事=先島有事



【雙魚之論】英文拷到 G / D 找中文翻譯
The Ryukyu Islands were originally divided into three kingdoms: Hokuzan (North Mountain), Chūzan (Middle Mountain), and Nanzan (South Mountain). On July 11, 1854, Commodore Perry signed the Treaty of Amity between the United States and the Ryukyu Kingdom with the Ryukyu government, drafted in both Chinese and English, opening the port of Naha.
At that time, there were two proposed plans: a bipartite division and a tripartite division. In 1878, Japan proposed a bipartite plan—dividing the northern part (including Okinawa Island and its surrounding islands) as Japanese territory, while the southern part (mainly the Miyako and Yaeyama Islands) would belong to the Qing Empire or be granted some form of autonomy. Later, in the early 1880s, it is said that the Qing Empire proposed a tripartite plan—assigning the northern part (Okinawa Island and nearby islands) to Japan; designating the central part (around the Miyako Islands) as a neutral zone or restoring a form of autonomy for the Ryukyu Kingdom; and assigning the southern part (Yaeyama Islands) to the Qing or as a buffer zone. The Qing also suggested an alternative tripartite scheme: the Amami Islands would be ceded to Japan, the Ryukyu Kingdom would be restored in the Okinawa Islands, and the Miyako and Yaeyama Islands would be incorporated into Qing territory.
In 1877, after leaving office, former U.S. President Ulysses S. Grant embarked on a two-year world tour. During this time, Japan requested his mediation in the Ryukyu dispute between the Qing Dynasty and Japan, involving Japan’s bipartite plan and the Qing’s tripartite plan. In the end, no results were achieved.

琉球本分為北山、中山、南山等三個王國。1854711日,培里與琉球國政府以漢文、英文兩種文字簽訂開放那霸港口的條約〈琉美修好條約〉。
當時有分為二分與三分兩方案。1878年日本提出的二分方案北部(包括沖繩本島及其周邊島嶼)劃為日本領土;南部(主要是宮古島和八重山群島)為大清領土或某種自治方案。此後1880年代初,大清提出三分方案北部(沖繩本島及附近島嶼)歸日本;中部(宮古島一帶)設為中立區或恢復琉球王國的某種自治地位;南部(八重山群島)歸大清或作為緩衝區。清朝又有將奄美群島劃入日本、琉球國在沖繩群島復國、宮古和八重山群島劃入清朝的方案。
1877
年美國前總統格蘭特卸任後,進行為期2年的環遊世界,日本曾請其調停大清與日本有關琉球問題,包括日方的二分與清方的三分方案。總之,無成果。




2025-03-18

屏東醫院新醫療大樓 將負戰備及災害應變醫療責任

35.6億打造屏東醫院新醫療大樓 蕭美琴:將負戰備及災害應變醫療    自由 20250315

衛福部屏東醫院(簡稱屏醫)斥資35.6億元新建醫療大樓,預計2028年完工,副總統蕭美琴今(15)天出席動土典禮時表示,屏醫新醫療大樓將引進先進的AI智慧化醫療設備,成為兼具戰備及災害應變緊急醫療功能的指標性醫院,對縮短城鄉差距及落實醫療服務平權具有重要意義。

2025-03-17

黃安,做個堂堂正正的中國人吧!

 


不再衝第一反台獨?黃安遭點名 吐心聲認:沒必要喊打喊殺    TVBS 20250317

兩岸關係緊張、連帶影響大批藝人針對政治立場的表態,被不少網友貼上「親中始祖」標籤、自稱「台獨剋星」的資深藝人黃安,近期已鮮少針對相關事件發言,一度被質疑立場轉變,對此黃安也再度發文表示自己「沒必要喊打喊殺」。
黃安日前發文表示,自己被不少粉絲詢問怎麼不再挺身「打擊台獨」、是不是立場有所轉變,透露只是單純到了另一個境界而已,只要不給社會添亂、把日子過好「就是祖國強大最好的證明」,強調自己已經沒有必要喊打喊殺
除此之外黃安更以如來佛五指山掌握一切比喻,表示自己並不重視台灣的詭譎風雲,再拿自己近年來死訊瘋傳一事調侃,重申自己要去往西方極樂淨土,跟台獨分子、民進黨人士以及假新聞製造者要去的三惡道完全不同,再度引起熱議。

武力威脅中的敵方,不是可原諒或和解的對象 Time matters: An enemy that continues to pose a military threat is not someone to be forgiven or reconciled with.

武力威脅中的敵方,不是可原諒或和解的對象

【雙魚之論】英文拷到 G / D 找中文翻譯
Hu Min-Jan (胡敏珍), the granddaughter of General Hu Lien (胡璉), has proposed establishing a monument to commemorate PLA soldiers who died during the 1958 invasion of Kinmen (also known as the Second Taiwan Strait Crisis).  It seems to be a good thing, though.
However, Hu Lien was no ordinary figure—he was one of the highest-ranking ROC military officers at the time, serving as Deputy Commander of the Kinmen Defense Command in 1958 and later as Commander of the ROC Army. Given her family background, her actions and statements carry significant weight.
Forgiveness and reconciliation between former enemies are virtues that reflect the humanity and moral values upheld by civilization. However, timing is crucial.
The meetings between Japanese and American veterans of battles such as Saipan and Iwo Jima serve as examples of reconciliation, occurring after decades of peace and mutual acknowledgment of past conflicts. Such gestures are meaningful because they are built on a foundation of lasting peace.
In contrast, when the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the People's Liberation Army (PLA) continue to openly threaten to "wash Taiwan in blood"—a stance they have maintained since 1949—they remain Taiwan’s enemy.
Forgiving the enemy before they abandon their ambitions to invade Taiwan and harm its people is a betrayal of Taiwan itself, not an embodiment of humanity and moral values.
Is Hu Min-Jan's loyalty in question, or is it her intelligence?

胡璉將軍的孫女胡敏珍提議建立一座紀念碑,以紀念在 1958 年入侵金門(也稱為第二次台海危機)期間犧牲的解放軍士兵。這似乎是一件好事?
然而,胡連並不是一個普通的人物——他是當時最高級別的中華民國軍官之一,1958 年擔任金門防衛司令部副司令,後來擔任中華民國陸軍司令。鑒於她的家庭背景,她的行為和言論動見觀瞻
昔日敵人間寬恕與和解是反映文明所維護的人性和道德價值觀的美德。然而,時機至關重要
參加過塞班島和硫磺島等戰役的日本和美國退伍軍人之間的會晤是和解的例子,發生在幾十年的和平和對過去衝突的相互承認之後
相比之下,當中國共產黨和中國人民解放軍自 1949 年以來持續公開威脅要「血洗台灣」時,他們仍然是台灣的敵方。在敵人放棄侵略台灣和傷害台灣人民的野心之前原諒他們,就是對台灣本身的背叛,而不是對人性和道德價值觀的推崇。胡敏珍是忠誠有問題?還是智力?

2018年起,被禁止入境美國的傅崐萁

【雙魚之論】英文拷到 G / D 找中文翻譯
In 2018, under the Trump administration, Fu Kun-chi was denied a U.S. visa and asked to provide additional documents. The requested materials included all invalidated passports since 2008, as well as original and translated copies of all judicial records dating back to 1998. This strongly suggested a de facto travel restriction to the U.S.
Conversely, Fu refused to submit the requested documents, possibly to avoid disclosing his travel records to China, Hong Kong, and Macau since 2008. His firm stance may have been a response to the U.S. investigation into events occurring after 2008.

傅崐萁在2018被美國禁發簽證並被要求補件,這是川普政府時期發生的事情。
傅崐萁被要求補的文件是:2008年以來作廢的護照,及1998年來所有司法文件正本及翻譯文件。」明顯是被軟性禁止入境美國。
反之,傅崐萁拒絕提供文件,可能是不願2008以來進出中港澳的紀錄被察覺,所以也擺出強硬姿態。2008以來發生什麼事,這是。美國當時在查證的事情。

傅崐萁:赴美遭拒發簽證 不屑再去美國    中央社 20180903

20250317 川普盛讚魏哲家,在台灣卻成為不需台灣晶片的假新聞

【雙魚之論】英文拷到 G / D 找中文翻譯

In a striking coincidence, former U.S. President Donald Trump praised TSMC CEO C.C. Wei in a recent interview. Almost simultaneously, Taiwanese commentator Wu Tzu-chia(吳子嘉) referred to Wei as a "fat and ugly man" during an event hosted by legislator Hsu Chiao-hsin(徐巧芯), where former lawmaker Kuo Cheng-liang(郭正亮) was also present. Shortly after, false reports emerged claiming that Trump expressed no need for Taiwan’s chips.

很有意思,就在川普受訪稱讚台積電魏哲家,幾乎同時吳子嘉在徐巧芯舉辦活動中形容是「醜胖子」,郭正亮與其同台。然後中時就傳出川普說不需要台灣晶片假新聞

川普總統訪談 第一部分(有關魏哲家)    FullMeasure 20250317

(前略)

Sharyl: So you put a tariff on what, for example, to try to counter the milk tariff?  沙麗爾:那麼,你對哪些東西徵收關稅,是為了抵銷牛奶關稅嗎?
Trump: Well, I can put a tariff on anything, but in the case of Canada, I put it on steel and aluminum.  
川普:好吧,我可以對任何東西徵收關稅,但就加拿大而言,我對鋼鐵和鋁徵收關稅。