讓中國瓜分朝鮮實現韓國統一朝鮮？

讓中國瓜分朝鮮實現韓國統一朝鮮

【Comment】

The consequences of the collapse of NK are nothing but common sense.

RAND Corporation, the US Air Force connected think tank, proposed a report lately.  It simulated the intervention of Beijing and the US in SK.  Does the intervention of the latter signify that of UN?

The old puzzle has never been answered: How to define the relationship between China and UN in terms of the UN Police Action of 1950 or the Korean War?  Friendly or hostile?

RAND offered a new scenario: Will the SK agree to unify the Peninsula at the cost of a 50-kilometer-wide zone as a buffer on the border with China?

Will UN troop retreat after the “unification?”  Could we call it a final resolution without the retreat of UN Troops?    revised at 2230

http://www.libertytimes.com.tw/2013/new/apr/7/today-o4.htm

http://www.rand.org/news/press/2013/09/19.html

朝鮮崩潰的後果，只是常識。

RAND 提出中國干預與美韓干預的情況，較為複雜的是美韓干預等於聯合國干預，當然包括日本。

老問題：中國與聯合國的敵有關係為何？

新視野：朝鮮半島統一於韓國，代價是中國取得半個朝鮮作為緩衝區。如何？

此時，聯合國撤不撤軍？聯合國的警察行動（韓戰），算不算解決？

 

蘭德：朝鮮若崩潰美中應在朝設分隔線◎BBC（2013.09.20）http://www.bbc.co.uk/zhongwen/trad/world/2013/09/130920_us_n-skorea_china_rand.shtml

一份最新研究報告警告說，如果朝鮮金正恩政權突然垮台將帶來災難性後果，美國應當考慮與中國磋商在政權崩潰後的朝鮮設立一條隔離線。

美國知名的非牟利研究機構「蘭德公司」發表報告說，實行獨裁集權統治的朝鮮一旦崩潰，將引發嚴重的、新的飢荒，並在這個關有成千上萬囚犯的國家帶來人權危機。

蘭德報告說，就像當年東德垮台一樣，朝鮮政權垮台也可能在毫無預警的情況下突然發生。一旦朝鮮政權垮台，美國及其盟國韓國肯定將作出干預，但此舉將令中國感到震動。

作為朝鮮的主要盟國，中國當局可能因此在朝鮮境內設立一個緩衝區，控制朝鮮難民湧入其邊境，以及防止美軍部隊靠近朝中邊界。

報告說，中國還可能向朝鮮派出部隊，而此舉可能導致與美軍或韓國軍隊發生衝突，而衝突甚至可能很快升級。

設立分隔線

蘭德報告說：「減少這些事故的最佳辦法，就是為中國部隊與（韓國部隊）和美國部隊劃定一條隔離線。」

報告稱，這條隔離線可能從中朝邊界往朝鮮方向延伸約50公里，甚至遠及平壤。

報告作者布魯斯·本內特承認，這個建議在韓國可能會不受歡迎，並引發關於德國在二戰後被分隔的辯論。

朝鮮半島自1950-53年的朝鮮戰爭之後就處於分裂狀況。

本內特說：「建立一條這樣的分隔線並非好主意，在政治上是如此，但我想說，從另一個方面講，與中國開戰結果會更糟。」

他表示，因此，最後的結果是，「我們得建立一條線，告訴中國人不能往南走，我們也不會往北去。」

蘭德報告還指出，美韓兩國應當同中國就向朝鮮運送食品，以及確保朝鮮核武和其它大規模殺傷性武器安全等重大問題領域，與中國進行協調。

報告預測說，在聯合國安理會的監督下，中國應當最終同意從朝鮮撤軍，並允許朝韓統一。

不過，報告認為，達成聯合國安理會決議很費時間，因此在朝鮮政權垮台前就與中國就有關事宜達成共識「更好」。

危險的概率

法新社引述本內特說，「朝鮮政權在未來幾年垮台的概率大概只有2%，但這是危險的2%。」

蘭德報告沒有預測朝鮮政權垮台的時間，但預測說，朝鮮政權最終將崩潰。

報告還稱，朝鮮政權垮台的其中一個可能就是金正恩遇刺身亡。

現年20多歲的金正恩在2011年12月金正日去世後成為朝鮮新的領導人，但朝鮮尚未指定未來的接班人。

蘭德報告說，最高領導人的突然死亡將使朝鮮出現派系政權和無政府狀態，並嚴重阻礙救援食品的發放。

（編譯/責編：蕭爾）

KEY FINDINGS  http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR331.html#key-findings

There Is a Reasonable Probability That North Korean Totalitarianism Will End in the Foreseeable Future

• The division of the North into factions would likely precipitate civil war.  Such conflict could spread to surrounding countries.
• Weapons of mass destruction could be used and/or sold to third parties.
• Compared to today, an even more serious lack of food, medicine, and other supplies in North Korea would lead to a humanitarian disaster likely worse than the famine of the mid-1990s.
• Large numbers of refugees flowing into China and the Republic of Korea (ROK) would be destabilizing to both countries.
• These possibilities might encourage China to intervene, which could lead to accidental conflicts with intervening ROK and U.S. forces.

The ROK and Its U.S. Ally Will Likely Intervene, with a View to Ultimate Reunification

• The immediate objectives of intervention would be to deliver humanitarian aid, stop conflict, demilitarize the military and security services, secure and eliminate WMD, and liberate political prisons before guards execute the prisoners.
• Alternative employment for those formerly in the military and security services could include public works projects.
• Property rights will need to be addressed.

Such Intervention Requires Planning and Preparation

• Manpower is a potential issue; the size of the ROK military is decreasing and alternatives need to be addressed.
• Large amounts of humanitarian aid will need to be delivered promptly throughout the country.  This will require advance stockpiling and organization.
• Coordination with other nations, especially China, will be necessary.

 

 

U.S., Republic of Korea and Allies Should Prepare for Eventual Collapse of North Korean Government ◎ RAND(2013.09.19) http://www.rand.org/news/press/2013/09/19.html

Like the collapse of East Germany, the collapse of North Korea could occur suddenly and with little warning.  But a North Korean collapse could be far more dangerous and disastrous than the actual collapse of East Germany, especially given the inadequate preparations for it, according to a new RAND Corporation report.

The current North Korean government, led by Kim Jong Un, has showed signs of instability for some time and most experts agree that a collapse is likely.  It is more a matter of “when” than “if” it will occur, says Bruce Bennett, the study's author and a senior defense analyst at RAND, a nonprofit research organization.

The study describes many of the possible consequences of a North Korean government collapse, including civil war in the North, a humanitarian crisis, the potential use and proliferation of the nation's chemical, biological and nuclear weapons, and even war with China.

Failure to establish stability in North Korea could disrupt the political and economic conditions in Northeast Asia and leave a serious power vacuum for a decade or longer, Bennett said.

The study examines ways of controlling and mitigating the consequences of a North Korean government collapse, recognizing that the Republic of Korea and the United States almost certainly will need to intervene in the North, even if only to deliver humanitarian aid. They will likely seek Korean unification as the ultimate outcome.

Preparation is required because the situation in North Korean could deteriorate rapidly. Food and medicine already are in short supply, and a collapse would lead to hoarding that would leave many people starving. A simultaneous deterioration in internal security could force people to leave their homes, making it even more difficult to deliver humanitarian aid.

The Republic of Korea and the United States must be prepared to rapidly deliver food supplies throughout all of North Korea, Bennett said. Prompt delivery requires preparing stockpiles of food and practicing delivery methods.

The nations also must also be prepared to quickly achieve a degree of stability and security in the North. This requires co-opting North Korea military and security service personnel. A failure to do so would lead to military battles with North Korean forces and a defection of some of those forces to insurgency or criminal activities, which could disrupt local security for years and perhaps even frustrate unification.

The North Korean personnel must be convinced that they will be treated well and can achieve better lives after unification. Already, information is leaking into North Korea that challenges the regime's propaganda claiming that people in the Republic of Korea lead lives that are even worse than people in the North.

North Korean troops also pose a serious threat in the potential use of weapons of mass destruction. These weapons appear to be dispersed among a large number of facilities, at least some of which have not been identified, making it difficult to quickly eliminate the threat. Prompt, prepared action is more likely to secure much of the weapons of mass destruction, especially with Chinese help.

Potential Chinese intervention also must be addressed, ideally leading to cooperation with forces from the Republic of Korea and the United States. A North Korea collapse would heighten Chinese fears of both a massive influx of North Korean refugees and U.S. intervention into an area directly adjoining China's border.

China recognizes that the United States will want to promptly reach the North Korean weapons of mass destruction sites north of Pyongyang to prevent their use or proliferation. This U.S. interest could force China to seek to secure these facilities before the United States does.

China also may try to create a buffer zone inside North Korea to contain the refugees and prevent them from reaching China, where there are large pockets of ethnic Koreans. North Korean ports on the East Sea and North Korea's mineral wealth are other economic targets China will want to secure. The Republic of Korea also has concerns that if China intervenes in North Korea, it might not be reversible, and China may end up annexing some significant portion of the North.

China has been reluctant to discuss the possibility of a North Korean collapse, for fear of appearing disloyal to its ally and adding to the stability problems in North Korea. But some Chinese attitudes are changing, opening new opportunities for dialogue, according to the RAND report.

A final concern is the military capabilities of the Republic of Korea. The Republic of Korea's army will be reduced from its current size of 22 active-duty divisions to approximately 12 by 2022 because of very low birthrates. Action must be taken to curb these reductions and compensate for the loss through measures such as building the capabilities of the reserve forces.

The report, “Preparing for the Possibility of a North Korean Collapse,” can be found at www.rand.org.

Research for the report was sponsored by the Smith Richardson Foundation and was conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Center of the RAND National Security Research Division. The National Security Research Division conducts research and analysis on defense and national security topics for the U.S. and allied defense, foreign policy, homeland security and intelligence communities and foundations and other nongovernmental organizations that support defense and national security analysis.