蕭旭岑的膝蓋式反應

【雙魚之論】英文拷到 G / D 找中文翻譯
Merely because Donald Trump invited Xi Jinping to his inauguration next January, Ma Ying-jeou's key aide, Hsiao Hsu-tsen, hastily concluded that U.S.-China relations would shift dramatically. This response seems more instinctive than analytical, especially given the promotion of narratives like the "U.S.-China condominium of Taiwan," which appear to prioritize conclusions over reasoned justification.
In reality, Trump's so-called "madness" often reflects a calculated strategy. For instance, during Xi Jinping's visit to the United States on April 6, 2017, Trump hosted him at his private resort in Florida. At dinner, Trump unexpectedly informed Xi of a strike involving 59 Tomahawk missiles on Syria minutes ago. This revelation visibly stunned Xi.
Had he traveled to the U.S. just a month later, such military actions could have complicated his status when he return to China, potentially exposing him to significant internal challenges and threatening his leadership.
The crucial question for Xi's inner circle, then, is how to evaluate these risks. How can they obtain reliable assurances from someone as unpredictable as Trump?

僅因為川普邀請習近平參加就職典禮，馬英九核心幕僚蕭旭岑就率爾認定美中關係會有重大轉變。這實在是膝蓋的直覺反應，包括宣傳「美中共管台灣」的論調，實在是先有結論再編制理由。
其實，川普的瘋狂，是理性的算計。習近平2017 4月6日訪美，川普在佛州私人度假俱樂部設宴待。席中川普臨時告知自己已經下令59枚戰斧飛彈攻擊敘利亞假使習近平親自赴美（進剩一個月時間，作業將來不及），習近平無言以對。習近平回國後將遭受重大鬥爭，甚至下台。
習近平核心要如何評估此風險？如何獲得川普的保證？

川普去年也怒炸敘利亞當時正笑迎習近平

傳川普親邀習近平參加就職典禮 蕭旭岑：美中共管台灣格局將出現    太報 20241212

美國總統當選人川普下個月上任，傳出親邀大陸國家主席習近平出席就職典禮。馬英九基金會執行長蕭旭岑今提醒，若習真應邀前往，不僅開啟中美關係是新的篇章，美中共管台灣的格局也出來了，對台灣非常不利。

蕭旭岑表示，2018年川普前一任期內發動貿易戰時，中美競爭被認為是未來50年世界格局大勢，但如今川普第二任一當選就邀習近平參加就職典禮，川普的起手是就是一個預告美中台局勢將會有天翻地覆的大變動。

蕭旭岑說，川普上台後，中美關係可望朝正面穩定發展，卻會壓縮到台美關係或是台灣想藉由美國處理兩岸緊張情勢的冀望，籲一直無法獲得美方關愛眼神的總統賴清德趁川普上台前，趕快調整兩岸政策，回歸中華民國憲法。

蕭旭岑提醒，賴清德與國安團隊，先不要把力氣放在算計在野黨、雙城論壇、馬英九基金會或立法院長韓國瑜，而應該花一點力氣思考未來4年新美中台關係與對川普的因應之道，不然的話我們「連當第三者的資格」都會很吃力。

蕭旭岑批評，今天賴清德政府有點亂套、黔驢技窮，對未來局勢沒法預測，內部鷹派、鴿派力量拉扯，對美方卻沒有在做相關努力，前總統蔡英文至少還有跟川普通話，現在連像樣管道都沒有，未來能否與川普溝通都打上問號。

蕭旭岑認為，「台灣問題一定在川普清單很後面」，當賴政府無能改變美中共管的大局，民間能做的交流一定要更努力，營造兩岸民間善意，才能降低兩岸衝突可能性，相信民間和樂融融兩岸就打不起來。