川普對英美「特殊關係」的衝擊

【雙魚之論】英文拷到 G / D 找中文翻譯
特殊關係：從美英到兩國論
20170127 President Trump & British Prime Minister Theresa May Press Conference
國史館出書證實 特殊國與國關係 司法院長許宗力所創

倫敦和華盛頓的“特殊關係”經受特朗普新總統任期的考驗   法廣 20241107

美國總統大選 –特朗普當選美國總統後，英國首相史塔默隨即表示祝賀，並強調期待和特朗普合作。儘管史塔默過去曾暗批特朗普，但他近期也積極靠攏這位白宮新主人。

英國首相斯塔默和特朗普6日通了電話。他表示與美國當選總統進行了“非常積極、非常有建設性”的對話。在特朗普獲勝之後，斯塔默還表示，我深知英國和美國的特殊關係將繼續下去。

但由於特朗普保護主義傾向、對烏克蘭的支持問題以及某些工黨部長過去針對前總統發表的不合時宜的言論，與工黨政府存在分歧的話題並不少見。英國皇家國際事務研究所-查塔姆研究所（Chatham House）負責人布朗文·馬多克斯對法新社表示：“這確實是一種複雜的關係。”

在她看來，“這一切都歸結於特朗普捍衛的‘美國優先’原則”。她還解釋道，“他不會在貿易方面提供任何好處，而且在烏克蘭問題、如何加強歐洲安全以及可能在中東問題上可能會存在意見分歧”。

特朗普批評美國向基輔提供的援助規模（英國是基輔的早期盟友），並承諾“在 24 小時內”實現和平。肯特大學國際關係教授理查德惠特曼（Richard Whitman）認為，毫無疑問，英國政府“感到擔憂”，他強調倫敦“根據美國關注的焦點”制定了大部分外交政策。

倫敦亞非學院國際關係教授萊斯利·文賈穆里（Leslie Vinjamuri）還回憶道，特朗普傾向於從“討價還價”的角度處理外交關係。她堅持認為，如果英國“可以提供一些東西，非常好，但除此之外雙邊關係將不會成為美國總統的優先事項之一”，並強調“倫敦必須與歐盟建立富有成效的關係”。

儘管工黨政府已將加強經濟增長作為首要任務，但特朗普承諾對所有進口產品徵收關稅的保護主義計畫可能會阻礙其計畫。

 

America chooses a new role in the world    Bronwen Maddox＠Chatham House 20241106

Donald Trump’s election victory will bring immediate costs for US allies, says Bronwen Maddox, and will remake the map of American partnership.

As a second Trump presidency became a certainty, countries around the world were racing to forge relationships with him and calculate the likely impacts – which could come within weeks of his inauguration.

One Japanese official spoke for the mood in many capitals in saying ‘we have learned to respond to new American presidents as we would to a Christmas present – you open it, and whatever is inside, you say “That is exactly what I wanted!”’

In the case of Trump, that sentiment is most straight forward in Moscow, where President Vladimir Putin’s supporters were exultant. In Europe, especially the UK, and among the US’s Indo-Pacific allies, the calculation is more complicated. They are trying to work out their response based on remarks Trump has made, knowing that unpredictability and inconsistency were the hallmarks of his first presidency and may be of his second.

Tariffs

The most immediate global impact is likely to come through the tariffs which Trump has vowed to impose on goods from China – and other countries too. Tariffs will not decouple the US and Chinese economies but could sharply check trade in electric vehicles and other imports.

They could also undermine global economic growth: economists have warned – with no apparent effect on the Trump campaign – of the inflationary effect tariffs will have and the consequent upwards pressure on interest rates and the dollar.

A similar effect would apply to European countries. This will depend on the tariffs chosen and whether a Trump administration seeks actively to discourage Europe’s still relatively open economy from trade with China.

Given that many European governments are struggling to get economic growth at all, this would be a significant new blow.

Ukraine

In his victory speech Trump repeated a point of which he is immensely proud: that in his terms, there were ‘no new wars’ during his first administration.

He also said that while he wanted strong US armed forces, he preferred not to use them. He has publicly made much of his desire to end conflicts in Ukraine and in the Middle East and has boasted of his ability to strike ‘deals’ to that end.

If Trump seeks to freeze the conflict along the current frontline, there will be little to protect Ukraine – or Europe – from further Russian aggression.

The key question is if and how Trump will push for a cessation of fighting in Ukraine. If he seeks to freeze the conflict along the current frontline, there will be little to protect Ukraine – or Europe – from further Russian aggression in the future unless the US pledges to block that. The US could offer Kyiv explicit security guarantees, although NATO membership remains a distant prospect.

A direct security pledge from Washington is more realistic, but it remains to be seen whether that would be sufficient to convince Ukraine to stop fighting. Ukrainian leadership and people regard the war as existential and any surrender of territory to Russian control, even if it were not formalized, may yet prove an impossible barrier in negotiations.

Nor is it obvious how Trump could secure an agreement with Putin worth the name. He has prided himself on his relationship with the Russian leader, and Russian disinformation campaigns appeared to weigh in on his side. But Russia has broken agreements before.

It would be a more plausible deal if backed by China – but that would require Trump to deal with a regime he appears to regard as the US’s primary threat.

Middle East

Trump could make the conflict in the region much worse – or just possibly, open a route to stability. He has consistently sided with Israel, but his relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been mixed.

There is no doubt that Netanyahu hoped for a Trump victory. Were Trump to clearly side with the prime minister and those in his cabinet who have no intention of granting a state to the Palestinians, it would represent an inflammatory step.

Elements of Israeli society would see this as the opportunity to annex the West Bank and seek control or partial reoccupation of Gaza, hoping to give Palestinians every incentive to leave those areas for neighbouring countries. Netanyahu may also be encouraged to strike further at Iran.

On the other hand, Trump appears to mean what he says about shutting down conflicts, even if only out of concern for US interests. Netanyahu may come under pressure to stop bombing southern Lebanon and to reach some deal in Gaza with Hamas, including the release of the hostages.

A more hopeful route lies in Trump’s pride in the Abraham Accords, a signature achievement of his first term that normalized relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco.

The great prize still dangling in front of Israel is the possibility of normalization with Saudi Arabia. That would allow Trump to claim he had brought peace to the Middle East. But that will remain impossible for Riyadh without Israeli commitment to a Palestinian state.

The UK

There are no grounds to believe this will be an easy relationship for the UK to manage.

Foreign Secretary David Lammy has put in the air miles getting to know the Republicans around Trump.

Sir Keir Starmer was quick to congratulate Trump, pointedly including the phrase ‘special relationship’ and referring to cooperation on technology and security. But his new UK government, which has prioritized growth, will be acutely aware of the tariff threat.

Foreign Secretary David Lammy has put in the air miles getting to know the Republicans around Trump, but his comments denouncing the president elect before Labour’s own election victory may well sour the mood. So too will reports of Labour supporters organizing to support Democrat campaigning.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves is expected to visit China early in the new year. She will have to decide by then the UK’s position on whether to import cheap Chinese solar panels and electric vehicles. Trump’s victory will not make this decision easier.

Climate

Trump and Harris offered starkly different environmental visions. Trump’s commitment to pursue cheap US oil and gas is fashioned with voters at home in mind, and will remove the US further from global climate talks.

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If Trump pulls out of the Paris Agreement again, it is likely that the global target to avoid above 1.5°C warming will be dead. So too will be any prospect of improving Western cooperation with China and India on decarbonization.

That may in turn allow China to portray itself as having the moral high ground, taking more steps to invest in solar power and electric vehicles.

The US’s place in the world

Trump offers a very different vision of the US’s role. His emphasis on protecting Europe only if Europe pays more for its defence makes the US position within NATO transactional. US commitment to its article 5 obligations may begin to look in doubt – both to those it protects as well as those it is intended to deter.

In turn, South Korea and Japan have reason to doubt the integrity of the US defence umbrella protecting them and may look to shore up their own defences further.

US foreign policy is set to become significantly more unpredictable. The application of Trump’s plans in his first term was often disorganized and inefficient.

His approach may however have the oblique advantage of muddying a picture which seemed to be resolving into two clearly opposed global blocs.

Trump is eager to talk to leaders currently ranged against ‘Western’ interest, including Russia. The US’s traditional allies worry, however, that in doing so he might sacrifice Western values, and accelerate a new world order based on transactions rather than principles.

https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/11/america-chooses-new-role-world