烏克蘭，就是和以色列與台灣不一樣

【雙魚之論】英文拷到 G / D 找中文翻譯
許多人不知道：在俄國全面侵烏前的2022年1月3日，五大核武國家簽署〈五個核武器國家領導人關於防止核戰爭與避免軍備競賽的聯合聲明〉（Joint Statement of the Leaders of the Five Nuclear-Weapon States on Preventing Nuclear War and Avoiding Arms Races）^[1]。
聲明的基礎是：認識與同意「核戰爭不可能贏，也絕不能打」（a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought）^[2]；其餘主要內容為：避免核武國家間爆發戰爭和減少戰略風險，包括核武只能服務於防禦目的；嚇阻侵略和防止戰爭；防止核武進一步擴散；防止核武未經授權或意外使用；不將核武瞄準彼此或其他任何國家等。但聲明剛簽完俄國隨即發動侵略戰爭，考慮此，我們可感受到大國戰前的不安與管控戰爭不使之升級的用心。
也就是這樣，美國有過承諾不會出兵烏克蘭。但是，以色列與台海不一樣。美國與以色列的關係是固定在每次簽署的10年期協議中，目前的協議涉及從2019年到2028年逐步獲得美國380億美元（約新台幣1.17兆元）的軍事援助。
台海則另有授權，一旦有事，美國真的會出兵。

 

以、烏差別待遇？美：「關係不同」且不會與俄直接交戰    自由 20240418

美國、英國等西方國家聯手攔截伊朗攻擊以色列的飛彈，不免讓烏克蘭總統澤倫斯基吃味，澤倫斯基呼籲西方在保護烏克蘭上展現同樣的「團結」。美國國務院發言人米勒（Matthew Miller）16日被問到這問題時答說，美國與以色列的關係和烏克蘭不同，美國不會與俄國發生直接武裝衝突，「因為我們不希望第三次世界大戰」。

米勒在16日國務院例行記者會上，回應記者問到澤倫斯基呼籲西方盟邦，以保護以國的同樣方式保護烏克蘭，米勒說，美國與以色列的關係，與和烏克蘭的關係「完全不同」。

他說，「就安全夥伴關係而言，我們與以色列的關係可追溯到數十年前，我們與以色列有數十年之久的安全夥伴關係，我們一直提供他們直接軍事援助」，「以色列是美國的主要非北約（NATO）盟邦，烏克蘭的情況不同，直到在這場衝突爆發前幾個月，我們都與他們沒有那種協議」。

米勒指出，美國自烏俄戰爭以來，提供烏克蘭自衛所需軍備，包括愛國者防空系統等，所做所為眾所皆知，「他們能夠如此成功地抵擋俄國一波波的攻擊，很大一部分是因為我們提供的那些防空系統」。

他說，「我們與俄國並不處於直接軍事衝突，這種情況會需要美國飛機在烏克蘭上空回應俄國攻擊。我們不會與俄國發生直接武裝衝突，美國總統已經非常清楚表明這一點。我想，美俄之間不發生直接武裝衝突，符合美國人民的利益，因為我們不希望第三次世界大戰」。

米勒強調，美國「充分致力於保護烏克蘭」，過去兩年已經證明這一點，他呼籲美國國會通過追加援烏預算，讓美國能提供烏克蘭亟需的更多武器裝備。

伊朗14日對以國發動報復攻擊，根據以國軍方統計，伊朗發射了170架無人機、150枚飛彈，絕大多數在以國境外就遭以國和美國、法國與英國等盟邦聯手攔截。澤倫斯基立即譴責攻擊，但也力促西方盟邦，展現同樣的「團結」保護烏克蘭。

 

 

白宮記者會（摘要）    白宮 20240417

QUESTION: Matt said the U.S. is very concerned, that this would be on the G7 agenda, but I was wondering if you could provide any more detail, particularly what the U.S. is doing in response to Chinese support for Russia’s industrial base.  馬特說美國非常擔心這將被列入七國集團議程，但我想知道你是否能提供更多細節，特別是美國正在採取哪些措施來回應中國對俄羅斯工業基礎的支持。

MR PATEL: Sure, Ben. So let me say a couple things on that. We believe that the PRC is supporting Russia’s war effort, and it’s doing so by helping ramp up its defense production. Specifically, the PRC is providing Russia with significant quantities of machine tools, microelectronics, optics, UAVs and cruise missile technology, and nitrocellulose, which Russia uses to make propellants for weapons. Together, we think that these materials are filling critical gaps in Russia’s defense production cycle, helping revitalize Russia’s defense industrial base, which had otherwise suffered significant setbacks due to sanctions and export controls from the United States, from our partners and allies.  當然。讓我就此說幾句話。我們相信，中華人民共和國正在支持俄羅斯的戰爭努力，並且是透過幫助提高其國防生產來實現這一目標的。具體來說，中國正在向俄羅斯提供大量工具機、微電子、光學、無人機和巡航飛彈技術，以及俄羅斯用來製造武器推進劑的硝化纖維素。我們認為，這些材料共同填補了俄羅斯國防生產週期的關鍵空白，有助於振興俄羅斯的國防工業基礎，該基礎曾因美國、我們的合作夥伴和盟友的制裁和出口管制而遭受重大挫折。

This kind of support is actively enabling Russia’s war in Ukraine, and it poses a significant threat to European security. We’ve raised these concerns with the PRC through diplomatic channels, including through recent conversations at the leaders level, and we’ve been briefing our allies and partners on our concerns over the past few weeks. And we issued an executive order targeting third-country banks that facilitate support to the Russian defense industrial base, we’ve sanctioned relevant firms in the PRC, and are prepared to take further steps as necessary.  這種支持正積極促成俄羅斯在烏克蘭的戰爭，並對歐洲安全構成重大威脅。我們透過外交管道，包括透過最近的領導人層級對話，向中國提出了這些關切，並且在過去幾周裡，我們一直向我們的盟友和夥伴通報我們的關切。我們針對為俄羅斯國防工業基地提供支援的第三國銀行發布了一項行政命令，我們已經制裁了中國的相關公司，並準備在必要時採取進一步措施。

https://www.state.gov/?post_type=state_briefing&%3Bp=92333

 

國務院記者會（摘要）    DoS 20240416

QUESTION: Thank you. And final one on Ukraine – wanted to go – our back and forth yesterday. I’m sure you have seen President Zelenskyy’s comments yesterday in which he made it clear that we can now see how unity can work truly, a hundred percent, and how almost a hundred percent of Shaheds and missiles can be intercepted. Factor Ukraine officials don’t really understand why is it that United States is not helping them directly to prevent Russian attacks at least to the – targeting their energy infrastructure.  謝謝。關於烏克蘭的最後一個 - 想問 - 我們昨天來回討論。我相信你已經看到了澤倫斯基總統昨天的言論，他在其中明確表示，我們現在可以看到如何真正百分百地團結起來，以及如何可以百分百地攔截Shaheds和導彈。烏克蘭官員並不真正理解為什麼美國不直接幫助他們阻止俄羅斯的攻擊，至少是針對他們的能源基礎設施。

MR MILLER: So a few things. Number one, I saw the comments from the President – very much understand where he’s coming from. I would expect the president of any country who is under such withering attacks to look for any way possible to defend his people. Fully understand that.  有幾件事。第一，我看到了總統的評論——非常理解他的想法。我希望任何受到如此猛烈攻擊的國家的總統都會尋找任何可能的方法來保護他的人民。完全理解這一點。

Number two, I think it is important to note the context that we have an entirely different relationship with Ukraine and Israel in that our relationship with Israel goes back decades and – in terms of a security partnership. We have had a decades-long security partnership with Israel where we have been providing them direct military aid – not just going back two years of a conflict but for decades – and have had long, broad-standing communications between our military and the Israeli military that goes back decades.  第二，我認為重要的是要注意我們與烏克蘭和以色列有著完全不同的關係的背景，因為我們與以色列的關係可以追溯到幾十年前——就安全夥伴關係而言。我們與以色列建立了長達數十年的安全夥伴關係，我們一直向他們提供直接軍事援助— — 不僅僅是衝突發生的兩年前，而是幾十年來— — 並且我們的軍隊和以色列軍隊之間有著長期、廣泛的溝通可以追溯到幾十年前。

Israel is a major non-NATO ally of the United States. Ukraine is just in a different position in that we did not have that kind of agreement with them prior to the immediate months before this conflict. But what you have seen us do since this conflict is provide them with the equipment they need to defend themselves, and that includes, of course, air-defense systems, Patriot systems, and other air-defense systems that we have either provided the Ukrainian military ourselves or we have sourced from other partner and ally countries around the world so they can defend themselves. And much of the reason that they have been able to successfully defend themselves against barrage after barrage after barrage of Russian attacks is because of those air-defense systems that we have provided.以色列是美國主要的非北約盟友。烏克蘭的情況則不同，因為在這場衝突發生前幾個月，我們沒有與他們達成此類協議。但自從這場衝突以來，你看到我們所做的就是為他們提供自衛所需的裝備，當然包括防空系統、愛國者系統以及我們向烏克蘭提供的其他防空系統。夥伴和盟友國家採購軍事物資，以便他們能夠自衛。他們之所以能夠成功抵禦俄羅斯的一波又一波攻擊，很大程度上是因為我們提供了防空系統。

Now, that said, you’re right that we are not in armed military conflict with Russia, which is what it would require for U.S. planes to be in the skies over Ukraine engaging with Russian attacks. And we are not going to be in direct armed conflict with Russia. The President of the United States has been – has made that very clear. I think it’s in the interests of the American people that we not be in direct armed conflict between the United States and Russia because we do not want World War III.  話雖如此，你說得對，我們沒有與俄羅斯發生武裝軍事衝突，而這正是美國飛機在烏克蘭上空參與俄羅斯襲擊所需要的條件。我們不會與俄羅斯發生直接武裝衝突。美國總統已經非常明確地表達了這一點。我認為，美國和俄羅斯之間不發生直接武裝衝突符合美國人民的利益，因為我們不希望發生第三次世界大戰。

That said, we are entirely committed to the defense of Ukraine. We have proved that over the past two years; the President has proved that by providing American support. And if you want to ask the question about what more we can do, the question is one to put to the United States Congress – because we have a supplemental spending bill that would allow us to provide more equipment, including more air-defense systems, to Ukraine that they very much need, and we hope that bill will pass.  也就是說，我們完全致力於保衛烏克蘭。過去兩年我們已經證明了這一點；總統透過提供美國的支持證明了這一點。如果你想問我們還能做什麼，這個問題應該向美國國會提出——因為我們有一項補充支出法案，可以讓我們提供更多設備，包括更多防空系統，他們非常需要烏克蘭，我們希望該法案能夠通過。

 

QUESTION: Thank you. So you’ve been talking about – with increasing concern about the Chinese support for Russian military-industrial base. And so have you warned the Chinese against doing that like you did a while ago with – when it comes to lethal aid, or are you planning any actions to address that?  你一直在談論——越來越擔心中國對俄羅斯軍工基地的支持。那麼，您是否曾警告中國不要像您不久前所做的那樣——在致命援助方面這樣做，或者您是否計劃採取任何行動來解決這個問題？

And separately, if I may, Polish President Duda said today that he will meet with former President Trump. That’s obviously another meeting after David Cameron met with him, and then the Ukrainians expressed interest in that. Are you concerned at all about these meetings, that there might be some shadow diplomacy or something like that?  另外，如果可以的話，波蘭總統杜達今天表示，他將與前總統川普會面。這顯然是戴維·卡麥隆與他會面後的另一次會面，然後烏克蘭人對此表示了興趣。您是否擔心這些會議可能存在某種影子外交或類似的事情？

….

QUESTION: Chinese.

MR MILLER: Oh, with China. So we have long made clear to the People’s Republic of China that we would have concern with any actions that they took to support Russia’s war in Ukraine, and that did not include – that doesn’t – that doesn’t have to just be direct military support, but that we would be incredibly concerned about them – about any steps taken by Chinese companies to reconstitute Russia’s defense industrial base. And so what we have seen over the past months is that there have been materials moving from China to Russia that Russia has used to rebuild that defense industrial base and produce arms that are showing up on the battlefield in Ukraine, and we are incredibly concerned about that. And you saw the Secretary engage with NATO foreign ministers about that week before last. It will certainly be on the agenda when he travels to the G7 tomorrow to meet with G7 partner countries.  哦，是中國。我們很早就向中華人民共和國明確表示，我們將對他們為支持俄羅斯在烏克蘭的戰爭而採取的任何行動表示關切，這不包括——這不包括——不只是直接的軍事支持，但我們會非常關切它們——關切中國公司為重建俄羅斯國防工業基礎而採取的任何措施。因此，過去幾個月我們看到的是，有材料從中國運往俄羅斯，俄羅斯用這些材料重建「國防工業」並生產出現在烏克蘭戰場上的武器，我們非常關切這一點。前一周你看到國務卿與北約外交部長進行接觸。當他明天前往七國集團與七國集團夥伴國家會面時，這肯定會被列入議程。

And then the only thing I will say further about that is the Secretary does plan to travel to China in the coming weeks, and you can certainly – without getting too far ahead of those meetings, you can certainly expect that that is an issue that he would be expected to raise.  然後我要進一步說的唯一一件事是，國務卿確實計劃在未來幾周內前往中國，你當然可以——不用在這些會議之前走太遠，你當然可以預料到這是他所關心的一個問題。

https://www.state.gov/briefings/department-press-briefing-april-16-2024/

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[1]  Joint Statement of the Leaders of the Five Nuclear-Weapon States on Preventing Nuclear War and Avoiding Arms Races，https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/01/03/p5-statement-on-preventing-nuclear-war-and-avoiding-arms-races/     accessed on 2023/03/04

[2]  2021年6月拜登與普丁的聯合聲明用語是「核戰沒有贏家，不得開打」（a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.）。2022年2月4日，〈中俄有關進入新時代國際關係與全球永續發展聯合聲明〉（Joint Statement of the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China on the International Relations Entering a New Era and the Global Sustainable Development），使用落落長的雙方「認為所有核武器國家都應摒棄冷戰思維和零和博弈，降低核武器在其國家安全政策中的作用，撤出部署在國外的核武器，杜絕全球反彈道導彈防禦系統的無限制發展，採取有效措施降低擁有軍事核能力的國家之間發生核戰爭和任何武裝衝突的風險。」（believe that all nuclear-weapons States should abandon the cold war mentality and zero-sum games, reduce the role of nuclear weapons in their national security policies, withdraw nuclear weapons deployed abroad, eliminate the unrestricted development of global anti-ballistic missile defense (ABM) system, and take effective steps to reduce the risks of nuclear wars and any armed conflicts between countries with military nuclear capabilities.）。2023年3月21日，習近平訪俄國時簡要理解為「核戰爭打不贏也打不得」。2022年8月1日，普丁致函「核不擴散條約會議」，承諾「核戰沒有贏家，永不應開啟」（there can be no winners in a nuclear war and it should never be unleashed）。習近平的中文表達是「核戰爭打不贏也打不得」。但，在中國外交部網站上，已經整頁刪除。