北約「首度評估」台灣情勢

【縛雞之論】英文拷到 G / D 找中文翻譯
In September, the North Atlantic Council held a meeting referring to Taiwan and the impact on NATO when China invaded Taiwan.  Not for defending Taiwan, the member countries assessed what the situation of Taiwan is and what the consequences of the supply chain of Chips would be under Chinese invasion means to NATO. 
China is such a big country that it is unrealistic for NATO and other countries to disengage with China.  It is now too early for NATO’s foreign ministers to render the issue in public, despite the navy vessels and aircraft of NATO members had reached the west Pacific Rim for years.

首度為台開會 北約「不捲入台灣戰爭」    聯合 20221201

隨著中國大陸加強施壓台灣，英國金融時報報導，消息人士透露，北約組織九月在主要政治決策機構北大西洋理事會召集下，首度為台灣舉行專門會議。

談及台灣面臨威脅

一名熟知九月會議的消息人士說，各國駐北約大使們討論了最新情報，內容關於台灣面臨的威脅，以及台海衝突可能帶給北約成員國的影響。

消息人士表示：「我們並未討論如果發生軍事行動，北約將扮演何種角色，而是討論軍事行動可能為歐洲和大西洋地區安全造成的多種衝擊，以及對北約更廣泛層面的影響。」也討論了北約應該如何讓北京知道軍事行動的潛在後果。

「別高估北約行動」

一名熟知美國與北約盟邦討論過程的消息人士則認為，重要的是，不要高估北約在台海衝突會採取的行動。

他說：「台海一旦發生衝突，對北約而言最重要的影響可能是，如果美國必須把若干軍事資產調派到印太地區，歐洲軍隊可能得回補美軍在北大西洋的資產。北約不太可能直接捲入台灣危機或戰爭。」

美國退將、前北約盟軍最高指揮官史塔伏瑞迪斯表示：「北約首度討論台灣地位及其民主政府，以及台灣在全球晶片生產方面的關鍵角色，這值得注意、具有特殊意義。」

 

中國威脅增 北約首度專門會議談台灣問題    自由 20221201

讓中國認清軍事行動可能招致潛在後果

英國《金融時報》十一月卅日報導指出，鑑於中國對台灣威迫加劇，「北大西洋公約組織」九月在其主要政治決策機構「北大西洋理事會」（NAC）召集下為台灣議題開會，為北約一九四九年成立以來，首度為台灣舉行專門會議，呼應美國對中國武力犯台的相關示警。各成員國常駐代表在會上交流台灣面臨的威脅、台灣海峽衝突對北約成員國的可能影響等情報，並討論該如何讓中國意識到軍事行動可能招致的潛在後果。

儘管知情人士告訴《金融時報》，北約九月專會沒有討論北約在台海軍事行動可能扮演的角色，且北約屆時可能需要填補美國軍事重新部署到印度─太平洋地區而在歐洲遺留的空缺，但曾任美國歐洲司令部司令與歐洲盟軍統帥部司令官的美國退休海軍上將史塔伏瑞迪斯依舊認為，北約首度討論台灣地位和其民主政府，以及台灣在全球晶片製造上擔任的關鍵角色，此事「值得關注且具重大意義」。

在此之前，北約成員國已在NAC就中國對台灣施壓一事開會數次；並於六月底舉行的北約年度峰會更新《戰略概念》，首度在未來十年戰略藍圖寫入中國並首次將之列為威脅，延續去年北約峰會聯合公報稱中國為北約「體制性挑戰」的基調，並正式寫入今年《戰略概念》，但當時沒有提到台灣，結果中國八月初就為美國聯邦眾議院議長裴洛西訪台一事，進行大規模軍事演習。

北約昨外長會議 中國「挑戰」成焦點

北約各成員國外交部長十一月卅日也齊聚羅馬尼亞開會，中國「挑戰」為議題之一。一名正在當地參加北約會議的西方官員指出，北約「在中國問題上有很大進展」，「正從評估問題轉向解決問題」。

與會的加拿大外交部長趙美蘭強調，「七大工業國組織」（G7）就台灣問題有較多討論，而中國正密切關注北約如何回應俄羅斯二月廿四日以來，進犯烏克蘭一事，「我認為聯盟的團結是我們的力量，我們需要確保加強它」。

 

Interview

with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg by Deutsche Welle journalist Sarah Kelly at the Koerber Stiftung’s annual Berlin Foreign Policy Forum    NAC 20221018

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Sarah Kelly: Let's turn briefly to your Strategic Concept and to future threats. At the Chinese Communist Party Congress, President Xi Jinping said that China would use – and I'm quoting here – "All necessary measures to secure Taiwan". Is the next conflict for NATO with China?

NATO Secretary General: Well, Taiwan is not a NATO member, so our collective defence clause doesn't apply for Taiwan, but what we see is China...

Sarah Kelly: But Mr Secretary General, how would NATO respond if China were to invade Taiwan? How would NATO respond?

NATO Secretary General: I'm not going to outline exactly how NATO will respond. What we have stated clearly, and that's for the first time in our Strategic Concept, is that the rise of China matters for our security and it is a challenge for our values, for our interests, and for our security. And that is because China is now investing heavily in new modern military capabilities, also long range missiles, nuclear weapons. We see how they don't share our values, in the way they crack down on democratic voices, forces in Hong Kong, the minorities they abuse, and also how they coerce countries in the region. So, all of this makes it important for us to address the rise of China – not by isolating China, China is important also to engage with, and therefore we are both addressing the security challenges but also the need to engage with China, as we do. And I met recently with the Chinese Foreign Minister and that was my main message to him.

Sarah Kelly: The head of the British Cyber Intelligence Agency, he put it this way, he described the security threat posed by Russia as affecting the weather, while China's affects the climate. What do you think there is to be learned from Allies' support of Ukraine against the Russian invasion, should China move to invade or to illegally annexed territory?

NATO Secretary General: Sorry, in Taiwan?

Sarah Kelly: Anywhere, should they move to invade or illegally annex territory, in general.

NATO Secretary General: Well, in general, that's always unacceptable, that one country tries to grab land from another country. And that's the reason why we have reacted so strongly against the Russian invasion of Ukraine, because this is the biggest land grab since the Second World War in Europe, and also why we convey to China that, of course, they should be able to at least condemn the illegal war of Russia against Ukraine. And also, one of the reasons why we support Ukraine is to send a message to all other authoritarian leaders that we don't accept this kind of behaviour.

 

NATO Foreign Ministers end meetings in Bucharest with focus on China, more support for partners    NAC 20221130

NATO foreign ministers ended two days of meetings in Bucharest on Wednesday (30 November 2022), with meetings focused on the long-term challenges posed by China, as well as on support for partners facing Russian pressure. “NATO is an Alliance of Europe and North America, but the challenges we face are global, and we must address them together in NATO,” said Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.

Foreign ministers considered China’s ambitious military developments, its technological advances, and its growing cyber and hybrid activities. They also stressed the importance of meeting NATO’s resilience guidelines, maintaining NATO’s technological edge, and continuing to strengthen cooperation with partners in the Indo-Pacific region and with the European Union.  Mr Stoltenberg said that the war in Ukraine demonstrated a dangerous dependency on Russian gas, and that "this should also lead us to assess our dependencies on other authoritarian regimes, not least China, for our supply chains, technology, or infrastructure." He added: we will continue, of course, to trade and engage economically with China, but we have to be aware of our dependencies, reduce our vulnerabilities, and manage the risks." Ministers also discussed terrorism, and agreed to continue efforts to counter this grave threat. 

The Foreign Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia and Moldova joined the final session of the ministerial. NATO Allies agreed to step up tailored support to these three partners, including on capacity-building, reform, and training to improve their security and defence institutions.  

On Tuesday, NATO Foreign Ministers met with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba to address Ukraine’s most urgent needs, as well as longer-term support. Allies agreed that continued military support for Ukraine is essential – in particular, additional air defences. Allies also announced additional contributions to NATO’s Comprehensive Assistance Package, which is providing Ukraine with non-lethal aid, including fuel and generators. 

Allies were joined by Finland and Sweden for all sessions at the ministerial, their first meeting of NATO foreign ministers as invitees to the Alliance.