誰家後院失火？Kazakhstan 動亂，哪那樣簡單？

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A country has to deploy troops on foreign soil after receiving the clear invitation of the host government to do so unless there is an existing international institution and the latter made such a resolution.
 The riot in Kazakhstan is the case. The President asked the Russian, and the Collective Security Treaty Organization, to send the troops to put down the riots.
 China defines the incident in Kazakhstan as a domestic issue. The response oversimplifies the international matter. We should note that Kazakhstan is a member of The Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

哈薩克示威失控 俄派兵「維和」    自由 20220107

反燃料漲價和平示威變暴動 千人死傷

〔編譯管淑平／綜合報導〕哈薩克因為天然氣漲價而引爆的示威潮，五日在第一大城阿拉木圖演變成攻擊政府機關的動亂，在政府強悍鎮壓下，數十名示威者和十三名員警喪生，上千人受傷。俄羅斯應哈薩克總統請求，派出傘兵以國際維和部隊名義，進入哈薩克。

13警喪命 其中兩人遭斬首

阿拉木圖警方六日表示，前夜群眾企圖衝入數座政府機關建築物，「數十名攻擊者被肅清」，兩千人被捕，有暴動者在攻擊警局時偷走武器，「反恐怖份子」行動持續進行中，呼籲民眾暫勿出門。衛生部門指出，約一千人在徹夜的動亂中受傷；國營媒體報導，警方十三人喪生，其中兩人遭斬首，另外三五三人受傷。

官署遭縱火 軍隊對平民開槍

阿拉木圖市長辦公室、一處總統官邸都遭縱火，市內一家電視台、兩家醫院也遭洗劫，街頭多處可見被焚毀的車輛，軍方派兵和數輛裝甲運兵車於六日清晨進入市中心廣場時傳出槍聲；暴力示威群眾也一度佔領該市機場，雖然軍方後來奪回機場控制權，但機場已因動亂宣布暫時關閉。軍隊六日更在阿拉木圖市中心主要廣場對示威者開槍。

網路流傳的影片顯示，西北部鄰近俄羅斯的阿克托比（Aktobe），南部臨烏茲別克、吉爾吉斯邊境的奇姆肯特市（Shymkent）、塔拉茲市（Taraz）也都傳出政府機關遭示威群眾攻擊；阿克托比和西部靠裡海港市阿克濤（Aktau）機場關閉。

示威蔓延十多城 2千人被捕

這場示威二日起從西部產油省往外蔓延到十多個城市，原本和平的示威迅速演變成哈薩克獨立來最嚴重的暴動。總統托卡葉夫（Kassym-Jomart Tokayev）將緊急狀態擴大至全國，直到一月十九日，全國網路、行動通訊斷訊，同時對引爆示威潮的液化石油氣價格訂出上限，為期半年。

總統控恐怖攻擊 請求俄協助

托卡葉夫六日凌晨發表全國電視演說，指控外國訓練的「恐怖份子匪徒」是暴亂黑手，「打擊國家完整，攻擊我國民眾」，他連夜請求由俄羅斯領導的「集體安全公約組織」（CSTO）協助。俄羅斯證實已派出傘兵部隊前往哈薩克，將在該國維和「一段有限的時間」，「先遣單位已經開始履行任務」。俄羅斯外交部六日聲明，會與哈薩克和其他盟邦諮商，可能以更多行動支持哈薩克的「反恐行動」。

聯合國、歐盟呼籲各方冷靜、自制，歐盟針對俄國派兵介入，表示俄國必須尊重哈薩克主權。白宮發言人莎琪說，美國支持各方冷靜，也力促哈薩克政府自制，允許示威者和平表達意見；她同時斥責所謂美國在背後煽動的消息為「瘋狂的俄羅斯說法」。中國稱這場動亂為內政事務，希望情勢能迅速穩定。

 

Q  And then, on the situation in Kazakhstan, does what is happening there in any way change the dynamic for the U.S.-Russia talks that are going to begin next week, from the U.S. side? And is there any thought that Putin might be less likely to invade Ukraine while this crisis is playing out in Kazakhstan?
MS. PSAKI: Well, let me touch on a couple of things. First, to provide all of you an update — and you may have seen this — but today, Secretary Blinken shared a productive call with Kazakhstan foreign minister — with the Kazakhstan foreign minister, where he reaffirmed the United States full support for Kazakhstan’s constitutional institutions, human rights, media freedom, including through the restoration of Internet service, and advocated for a peaceful, rights- respecting resolution to the crisis.
There have been, kind of, a range of reports about peacekeeping forces, which I think you might be referencing, but — from Russia. We are closely monitoring reports that the Collective Security Treaty Organization have dispatched its collective peacekeeping forces to Kazakhstan. We have questions about the nature of this request and whether it has — it was a legitimate invitation or not. We don’t know at this point.
The world will, of course, be watching for any violation of human rights and actions that may lay the predicate for the seizure of Kazakh institutions, and we call on the CSTO collective peacekeeping forces and law enforcement to uphold international human rights obligations in order to support a peaceful resolution.
Of course, we will let the Kremlin speak to their own forces and the size of them and more specifics. But that’s we stand now.
There has not been any change to the planned three sets of talks next week.

 

Another 'revolution of dignity' sparks in Kazakhstan. Where will the country go?    Pravada 20220107

Heavy shooting erupted on Republic Square in the city of Almaty, Kazakhstan on January 6, TASS news agency reports adding that the connection with the source of the information was soon lost.

Eyewitnesses to the riots said that several citizens were injured during the shootout. It was also reported that explosions were heard in the city. Military men opened fire on the protesters who gathered on Republic Square, having warned the people of the intention.

Over 2,000 protester have been detained, tens were killed.

Until recently, Kazakhstan was considered to be one of the most stable and quiet countries on post-Soviet space. People took to the streets after the authorities doubled the prices on liquified gas.

However, social protests quickly evolved into political ones as people started demanding a regime change.

At the request of the protesters, President Kassym-Zhomart Tokayev dismissed the government, but the crisis was snowballing. All over Kazakhstan, protesters set cars on fire, seize local government buildings and attack law enforcement officers using the weapons that they had seized from them before.

It appears that neither the army nor the police will be able to help Kazakhstan President Tokayev.

He decided not to follow the path of either Viktor Yanukovych or Alexander Lukashenko. Tokayev simply refrained from dialogue.

Instead of acting harshly within the framework of the declared state of emergency, Tokayev accepted the resignation of the government and withdrew the troops. On January 5, the President was out of the media field.

Meanwhile, the crisis was getting worse every hour.

In some cities, security forces took the side of protesters. Such incidents were reported in Aktob and Arytau.

The symbols of power — the buildings of both the administration and residence of the sitting and past presidents of Kazakhstan — are in flames, and firefighters were not allowed to extinguish the fires.

Kazakhstan elites flee to the West

Kazakhstan's oligarchs have reportedly left the country. They are Patokh Shodiev, co-owner of Eurasian Resources Group, and Kenes Rakishev, the head of the metallurgical holding Sat&Company. Part of Nazarbayev's family, which controls oil and gas in Kazakhstan, have reportedly left the country on board a private jet too.

In the city of Zhanaozen, protesters demand a reset of the system of power. They want a person outside the system to come to power. This is unlikely to happen, because Kazakhstan is not a self-sufficient state.

Who will come to power in Kazakhstan?

If Kazakhstan succumbs to Western influence, the new person in power in Kazakhstan will not reorient hydrocarbon flows (85% of them go to the West). It is worthy of note that US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken discussed the crisis in Kazakhstan with UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan.

Tim Ash, an expert for emerging markets at BlueBay Asset Management, said in an interview with CNBC that the riots in Kazakhstan sparked because of frustrations over the lack of democracy.

"Young, internet savvy Kazakhs, especially in Almaty, likely want similar freedoms as Ukrainians, Georgians, Moldovans, Kyrgyz and Armenians, who have also vented their frustrations over the years with authoritarian regimes," Ash said.

We would like to add here that the mass riots in Kazakhstan sparked immediately after Nazarbayev and Tokayev paid a visit to the CIS summit to have a meeting with Vladimir Putin there. Perhaps they were planning something very unpleasant for the West during the talks.

If Kazakhstan chooses to follow the Russian influence, the new administration of Kazakhstan will turn to Russia, similarly to how Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus did.

Noteworthy, the riots are especially violent in the south of Kazakhstan, whereas the situation in the north of the country is relatively quiet. This prompted experts to assume that Kazakhstan may split into two parts, one of which will take a pro-Russian orientation, and the other one will be opposed to it.

Turkey and China may also have plans about Kazakhstan. Sinologist Nikolai Vavilov suggested that the purpose of the crisis in Kazakhstan was to pull the country out from the Collective Security Treaty Organisation so that it could subsequently enter into close military cooperation with Turkey, and through it with NATO.

"Turkey will thus gain a direct corridor to Xinjiang and begin providing direct support to East Turkestan. Russia will thus gain a potential hot front of not hundred, as in the case of Ukraine, but thousands of kilometres of unstable borders that would thus be open to militants from Afghanistan and the Middle East. The Urals, the Volga region and Western Siberia will all be destabilized," Nikolay Vavilov wrote in his Telegram channel.

Specialists have long predicted bloody riots in Kazakhstan after similar events had taken place in Ukraine in 2014, in Armenia in 2018, in Kyrgyzstan in 2020, and in Belarus in 2020. The same mistake was observed everywhere — local authorities showed their loyalty to the West and renounced everything Russian, save for cheap Russian resources. As a result of the revolutions of dignity in the above-mentioned countries, the standards of living in those countries have been declining, while prices on literally everything have been rising steadily.
Читайте больше на https://english.pravda.ru/world/150002-kazakhstan_riots/