Kazakh riots point to regional shift HoonTing＠Taipei Times 20220119

Kazakh riots point to regional shift    HoonTing＠Taipei Times 20220119

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has characterized recent anti-government unrest in Kazakhstan as a “color revolution” which he claims was instigated by “foreign-trained terrorists.” Tokayev appears to be trying to justify his decision to ask Russia for help, and to legitimize the next phase of his government’s operations.

During the initial phase of the unrest, Kazakh security forces took a beating from protesters and were on the back foot. However, after Tokayev appealed to the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) for assistance, the situation was rapidly brought under control. This suggests that there is more to the events than meets the eye.

An alternative explanation for the riots that has been floating around online concerns a reported stash of 100 tonnes of Chinese gold, allegedly smuggled out of China and placed in the custody of the Kazakh government by a faction of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) headed by former Chinese president Jiang Zemin (江澤民). The theory goes that Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) requests to Tokayev to repatriate the gold have fallen on deaf ears, and in a fit of pique, Xi decided to overthrow Tokayev’s government.

Although this explanation cannot be completely ruled out, it has the whiff of CCP propaganda, intended for internal consumption to distract from China being an impotent bystander to the events unfolding near it.

Although former Kazakh president Nursultan Nazarbayev stepped down in March 2019 after nearly three decades in power, he is believed to still be firmly in control and pulling the strings behind the scenes. From the Kremlin’s point of view, Nazarbayev has allowed Beijing to gain a foothold in Kazakhstan by means of massive investment through its Belt and Road Initiative. The Kremlin appears to have come to the conclusion that if Russia continues to turn a blind eye and fails to get a grip on the situation, it could soon have a disaster on its hands.

Therefore, a logical explanation of the events in Kazakhstan is that a political coup has taken place. Having first obtained permission from Russian President Vladimir Putin, Tokayev instigated a rebellion and used the tense situation as a pretext to call on the CSTO for assistance. Tokayev is now in full control of the country, Kazakhstan is once more a Russian satellite state, and Tokayev’s predecessor, Nazarbayev, is out of the picture and probably under arrest.

Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, in addition to forming the Commonwealth of Independent States, Russia also founded the CSTO. Although there has been some turnover of member states, the CSTO maintains a core six-nation membership of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Armenia. The CSTO’s primary purpose is to maintain the key borders of the former Soviet Union. At present, the Kremlin identifies the greatest chinks in Russia’s national security to be Ukraine (NATO), followed by Georgia and Azerbaijan (Turkey), and Turkmenistan (Iran).

With Beijing using its Belt and Road Initiative to expand China’s geostrategic and economic influence throughout the world, CSTO members Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan are essentially “forward operating bases” on the front lines of Chinese expansionism.

Ayni Air Base in Tajikistan is India’s first overseas air base. Jointly operated by the Indian Air Force and the Tajik Air Force, the Indian government funded its upgrade and has secured usage rights with the Tajik government for 20 years. If needed, India could use the air base to restrict Chinese expansion.

In June last year, the US and Russia held a high-level summit. At the post-summit news conference, US President Joe Biden said that both nations had agreed to establish cooperation in areas of mutual interest to build a stable strategic relationship. Afghanistan and Ukraine were several times mentioned in the same sentence, and Biden pointedly reminded Putin that there are several thousand kilometers of shared border between Russia and China.

Following Washington’s withdrawal from Afghanistan in August last year, the security situation in the country has deteriorated. However, this has paradoxically had the effect of easing the strategic threat to Russia. The withdrawal might therefore have been part of a wider strategic compromise arrived at between the leaders of the two nations at the summit, which has resulted in an easing of tensions between Russia and Ukraine, and the frustration of Chinese expansionism.

The events unfolding in Kazakhstan and Afghanistan are harbingers of a textbook geopolitical realignment. Just as an arc running from the first island chain to China’s northern boundary with Russia was used by Washington to restrain the Soviet Union during the Cold War, today Russia is the stabilizing force and CSTO members constitute the new front line. The realignment of the geopolitical tectonic plates has only just begun.

HoonTing is a political commentator.

Translated by Edward Jones