邱義仁是蔡英文的撿球員或神救援？ 聯合 20210709

【縛雞之見】

On July 4th, former President Chen Sui-Bian interviewed Chiu Yi-Jen, former Secretary of National Security Council, in Chen's radio program. Chiu revealed an unpleasant truth that Taiwan Independence is such an issue beyond the right that Taiwanese people could perform. Together with the earlier declaration of Kurt Campbell, the U.S. National Security Council Coordinator for the Indo-Pacific, that the U.S. does not support Taiwan Independence on July 1st.
The unpleasant truth hurts the feeling of traditional Taiwan Independence advocates, who believe that Taiwan can become a state by making a unilateral declaration of independence. They have known that they were wrong for more than a decade. The U.S. made several statements during President Chen’s second term. They are:

On 2004/10/24, Collin Powell, former Secretary of State, claimed: “Taiwan is not independent. It does not enjoy sovereignty as a nation, and that remains our policy, our firm policy.”

On 2007/08/30, Dennis Wilder, National Security Council Senior Director for Asian Affairs, confirmed: “Taiwan, or the Republic of China, is not at this point a state in the international community.”
http://blog.xuite.net/hoonting/twblog/160086998

On 2012/02/01, the White House Press Secretary Scott McClellan said U.S. policy with regard to Taiwan’s autonomy from China “remains the same,” and that President Bush had reiterated the U.S. position to Chinese President Hu Jintao during their meetings in New York earlier in September.
http://usinfo.org/wf-archive/2005/050930/epf501.htm

The issue originated from the end of the Pacific War of 1945 when Taiwan became Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek's proxy military occupation under the authority of the United Nations, in which the United States is the Principal Occupying Power or the main victor power which holds the supreme power to manage the world order afterward.
Seeing the serial moves, the United News put out an editorial on July 9th, with a slightly joyful mood, indicating that it is a deliberating move for Biden’s administration to make up the relations with Xi and that is thus a sign President Tsai has to change her course with China.
Taiwan is a residual issue of the Pacific War. There are many significant historical incidents happened since 1945. Friends become foes, and foes become friends, which is way beyond what the people of Taiwan could comprehend.

邱義仁是蔡英文的撿球員或神救援？    聯合 20210709

國安會前秘書長邱義仁近日說，台獨不是台灣人民自己可以決定，必須考慮國際現實，而「美國根本就不支持台灣獨立」。此話一出，原本盛氣凌人的獨派陣營一片沉默，似不知如何應對。事隔一日，白宮國家安全會議印太事務協調總監坎伯也在一項會議中表示，美國支持強健的美台「非官方」關係，但「我們不支持台獨」。這樣的前呼後應，要說純屬巧合，機率有多高？

邱義仁和坎伯相繼說出「美國不支持台獨」，分別在很奇特的場合。邱義仁是應邀上前總統陳水扁主持的廣播節目受訪時說出那番話，他說宣布台獨除會引起國內不和，「中國會打我們」，且美國根本就不贊成。至於坎伯，則是在回應前亞太助卿羅素問到美國對台灣「愛多少才叫愛太多」時，說出「不支持台獨」。由於坎伯是羅素的前任，這次問答，被認為是刻意安排。

如果這兩次談話都是刻意安排，這項訊息便十分耐人尋味。至於後果將如何發展，則仍難逆料。邱義仁並未退出政壇，他目前的官銜是「台日關係協會會長」，以他和蔡總統的深厚交情，他要去上陳水扁的節目，府方不可能不知情。他公開表態，且透過陳水扁的節目向社會放送，可能是看到蔡政府目前防疫諸事不順而民怨滔天的景象，因而主動出手幫蔡英文解圍。其目的，一是要求國內獨派稍安勿躁，二是要讓反獨民眾放心，三則是希望北京放下敵意。

至於坎伯的談話，則同樣是基於現實原則，回到美國利益的立場來談論美台和美中關係。華府原有意利用十月底的羅馬Ｇ20會議，安排拜登和習近平舉行會晤；但由於兩國關係緊張，中方反應相當冷淡，美方正在努力經營。坎伯的談話，極可能就是在為此鋪路，幫助修補美中關係。其談話清楚表達三點：第一，基於民主盟友的立場，美國是「愛台灣」的；第二，但雙方關係僅止於「非官方」性質；第三，美國不支持台灣獨立。

蔡總統近幾年藉著美台關係大作文章，塑造美國是台灣「反中大靠山」的印象，在兩岸及外交上變得挑釁、好鬥而肆無忌憚。尤其年輕世代，許多人把反中、仇中當成時髦標記，將不追隨反中曲調的人任意抹紅為「中共同路人」。如今，當民進黨大老邱義仁和美國政府高官同時喊出「美國不支持台獨」，或許意味蔡總統想要悄悄調整路線；但對於那些搖旗吶喊的反中追隨者，蔡英文難道沒有要說的話嗎？

邱義仁和陳水扁一搭一唱，說出「美國不支持台獨」，確實是一齣驚奇大戲。一位是國安會前秘書長，一位是貪瀆入獄而保外就醫的前總統，兩人在南台灣一個鮮為人知的電台，悠悠對蔡英文總統下了這步場邊指導棋。對藍營而言，反台獨是順心的宣示；對民進黨而言，能夠轉移焦點就好；對獨派而言，則像被點了死穴一般不知如何掙扎。對蔡英文而言，能藉這兩位關鍵人物之口向對岸釋放出「和」訊息，倒是簡便，至少不必從自己嘴巴說出難以啟齒的話。

不論邱義仁是以「撿球員」的角色幫蔡英文把打出界外的兩岸關係撿回來，或是以「神救援」的身分幫蔡總統擋下獨派的逼宮；接下來，都還要看蔡英文自己在場上的演繹。如果她還是言不由衷，她的大臣還是動不動就喊不惜一戰，邱義仁和陳水扁的戲就白演了。更糟的是，坎伯只說「美國不支持台獨」，邱義仁卻說「台獨不是台灣人民可以決定的事」；那麼民進黨灌輸給「天然獨世代」的夢想，要如何收尾？