季辛吉主義：保持台灣地位未定，讓中國有藉口收復，然後美國保衛台灣？

【縛雞之見】

所謂的貓熊專家，真令人氣結。
不改變台灣地位，但會防衛台灣。弔詭的地方在，因為台灣地位未定，成為中國動武的口實。
這讓情況變成：威脅動武→維持地位未定：地位未定→動武有口實。
這是某種騙人的遊戲嗎？

報告的建議有基本矛盾：若過去50年的策略很有效，所以現在要繼續維持。假使事實是如此，中國根本就應該早是愛好和平的國家，而非動不動威脅要發動戰爭。若，過去50年對中政策證明失敗，所以，合理的是反應是：該想新的策略。
然而，現在報告卻是混淆兩者：雖然政策失敗，但因為我們怕戰爭，所以答案不是修改政策，而是要繼續失敗的政策—聽起來矛盾連連，或倒果為因，一種季辛吉主義的無理由的延續。
沒有人想要戰爭，但在避戰之先，應該確認是非或正義，這個很基本很老套的疑問。

The so-called panda experts are illogical.
Kissinger’s approach has failed.  Yet, some panda experts keep insisting that the U.S. should follow Kissinger's path to prevent war with China.
The latest report by the Council of Foreign Relations, a notable think-tank of the U.S., proposes that the U.S. should not alter the status of Taiwan, on the one hand; while suggests the U.S. should defend Taiwan, with the allies, on the other hand.
Is it a kind of joke?
Chinese major excuse to incorporate Taiwan by force is because Taiwan’s status is undetermined.
It is tricky: Facing the Chinese threat of using force to take Taiwan, the U.S. should maintain Taiwan’s status quo undetermined, which gives China an excuse to threaten Taiwan; then, the U.S. should defend Taiwan after this.
The traditional thinking and debates of "just war" must become serious than ever.

美中台：避戰的戰略The United States, China, and Taiwan: A Strategy to Prevent War      Council of Foreign Relations 202102 　　Taimocracy翻譯

To preserve peace in the Taiwan Strait, Robert D. Blackwill and Philip Zelikow propose the United States make clear that it will not change Taiwan’s status, yet will work with allies to plan for Chinese aggression and help Taiwan defend itself. 為維護台海和平，Robert D. Blackwill和Philip Zelikow建議美國明確表示不會改變台灣的地位，但會與盟友合作，為中國的侵略做打算，並幫助台灣自衛。

Taiwan “is becoming the most dangerous flash point in the world for a possible war that involves the United States, China, and probably other major powers,” warn Robert D. Blackwill, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) Henry A. Kissinger senior fellow for U.S. foreign policy, and Philip Zelikow, University of Virginia White Burkett Miller professor of history.    外交關係委員會（CFR）亨利-季辛吉（Henry A. Kissinger）美國外交政策高級研究員羅伯特-D-布萊克威爾（Robert D. Blackwill）和佛吉尼亞大學懷特-伯克特-米勒（White Burkett Miller）歷史教授菲力浦-澤利考（Philip Zelikow）警告：台灣「正在成為世界上最危險的爆發點，可能會發生一場涉及美國、中國，可能還有其他大國的戰爭。  」

In a new Council Special Report, The United States, China, and Taiwan: A Strategy to Prevent War, the authors argue that the United States should change and clarify its strategy to prevent war over Taiwan. “The U.S. strategic objective regarding Taiwan should be to preserve its political and economic autonomy, its dynamism as a free society, and U.S.-allied deterrence—without triggering a Chinese attack on Taiwan.” 在一份外交關係協會新的特別報告《美國、中國和台灣：防止戰爭的戰略》中，作者認為：美國應該改變和明確其防止台灣戰爭的戰略。「美國對台灣的戰略目標應該是維護台灣的政治和經濟自治，維護台灣作為一個自由社會的活力，維護美國—盟友的威懾力—而不是引發中國對台灣的攻擊。」

“We do not think it is politically or militarily realistic to count on a U.S. military defeat of various kinds of Chinese assaults on Taiwan, uncoordinated with allies. Nor is it realistic to presume that, after such a frustrating clash, the United States would or should simply escalate to some sort of wide-scale war against China with comprehensive blockades or strikes against targets on the Chinese mainland.”「我們認為，指望美國在不與盟國協調的情況下，用軍事手段擊敗中國對台灣的各種攻擊，在政治上或軍事上都是不現實的。假設在這種令人沮喪的衝突之後，美國會或應該簡單地升級為某種針對中國的大範圍戰爭，對中國大陸的目標進行全面封鎖或打擊，也是不現實的。」

“If U.S. campaign plans postulate such unrealistic scenarios,” the authors add, “they will likely be rejected by an American president and by the U.S. Congress.”  But, they observe, “the resulting U.S. paralysis would not be the result of presidential weakness or timidity.  It might arise because the most powerful country in the world did not have credible options prepared for the most dangerous military crisis looming in front of it.”

作者補充「如果美國的競選計畫假設了這種不切實際的情況，它們很可能會遭到美國總統和美國國會的拒絕。」但他們觀察到：「由此導致的美國癱瘓不會是總統軟弱或膽怯的結果。它的產生可能是因為世界上最強大的國家沒有準備好可信的方案來應對眼前迫在眉睫的最危險的軍事危機。」

Proposing “a realistic strategic objective for Taiwan, and the associated policy prescriptions, to sustain the political balance that has kept the peace for the last fifty years,” the authors urge the Joe Biden administration to 作者敦促拜登政府，提出「一個現實的台灣戰略目標，以及相關的政策處方，以維持過去五十年來維持和平的政治平衡。」

• affirm that it is not trying to change Taiwan’s status; 申明它並不試圖改變台灣的地位。
• work with its allies, especially Japan, to prepare new plans that could challenge Chinese military moves against Taiwan and help Taiwan defend itself, yet put the burden of widening a war on China; and與盟國，特別是日本合作，準備新的計畫，挑戰中國對台灣的軍事行動，幫助台灣自衛，但將擴大戰爭的負擔放在中國身上；以及
• visibly plan, beforehand, for the disruption and mobilization that could follow a wider war, but without assuming that such a war would or should escalate to the Chinese, Japanese, or American homelands. 明顯的計畫，事先，為更廣泛的戰爭後可能出現的混亂和動員，但不假設這樣的戰爭會或應該升級到中國、日本或美國本土。

“The horrendous global consequences of a war between the United States and China, most likely over Taiwan, should preoccupy the Biden team, beginning with the president,” the authors conclude.   作者總結：「美國和中國之間的戰爭，很可能是為了台灣問題，其可怕的全球後果應該讓拜登團隊，從總統開始關注。」。

 

Professors: To request an exam copy, contact publications@cfr.org. Please include your university and course name.