華郵：中國視國安法為治台藍圖 往武力犯台邁進 中央社 20200707

【縛雞之見】

If the legislation of the National Security Law in Hong Kong could serve as a blueprint for dealing with Taiwan, CCP will definitely exercise the military government over Taiwan.

Those who support Beijing to take over Taiwan are not aware of it. 

華郵：中國視國安法為治台藍圖 往武力犯台邁進    中央社 20200707

港區國安法近期上路，由於規範廣泛，外界憂心中國威權觸角將伸向世界各處。華盛頓郵報今天一篇評論文章表示，中國可能把國安法當治台藍圖，進而朝武力犯台目標邁進一步。

 

香港特區國家安全法6月30日生效，規範分裂國家、顛覆國家政權、恐怖活動，及勾結外國或境外勢力危害國家安全等4項罪名。其中第38條明訂不具香港永久居民身分人士在香港以外犯罪也在此法管轄範圍內，規範之廣讓世界各地人人自危，引發寒蟬效應。

 

曾任「華盛頓郵報」（The Washington Post）北京分社社長的潘文（John Pomfret）今天刊文表示，上週生效的港區國安法令人畏懼的原因很多，舉凡嚴重限制香港言論自由、允許北京當局到香港抓人回中國大陸審判、在香港建立能法外執法的秘密警察結構等。

 

潘文說，在港區國安法之下，任何主張香港獨立的人士都恐觸法並遭逮捕，此法似乎能管到「地球上所有的人」。不過，他強調，最令人憂心的其實是國安法沒提的部分。

 

潘文說：「那就是國安法可能作為（中國）處置台灣的藍圖。事實上，藉由此法的通過，中國朝向距離90英里（約144公里）外民主之島開戰的準備，無疑更邁進一步。」他表示，2021年7月恰逢中國共產黨建黨100週年，外界普遍猜測，中華人民共和國主席習近平希望在黨慶到來前「解決台灣問題」。

 

潘文引述主張武力統一的「當代智庫論壇」理事長李肅近期發言，作為佐證。

 

李肅6月底在微博上傳影片，談論香港、台灣議題是如何環環相扣。他說，國安法的重點是要取得司法權，因為只要「把所有這些學生鬧事的，所有這批反對派抓到大陸來判…哪有治不住的，根本不可能治不住」。

 

李肅表示，香港問題為中國解決一國兩制、統一台灣問題鋪平道路；他表示，中國透過國安法，從香港起步作出示範，「就告訴你台灣，武統之後我有辦法解決你」。

 

潘文說，多年來，中國把香港當成處理台灣問題的「試驗品」。北京1997年承諾，要讓香港在「一國兩制」下維持50年資本主義經濟與相對自由的政治體制，隨後也提議要以「一國兩制」統一台灣。

 

不過，潘文表示，中國現在被指控對香港毀棄承諾，絕大多數居住在亞洲數一數二蓬勃民主中的台灣人也反對與中國統一。

 

 

The Hong Kong security law could be China’s blueprint to deal with the ‘Taiwan problem’    John Pomfret＠WP 20200707

The national security law that China passed last week is scary for many reasons: It severely limits free speech in Hong Kong, which had been a fixture of life for decades; it allows the authorities to take suspects from Hong Kong and try them in mainland China, where people such as the recently detained writer and law professor Xu Zhangrun are prosecuted for simply expressing their opinions; it establishes a secret police structure in Hong Kong that will operate outside of the law.  And in threatening to arrest anyone who advocates Hong Kong’s independence, the law seems to assert jurisdiction over every person on the planet.

 

​But perhaps the most worrisome element in the law is what is left unsaid.  And that is that the legislation could serve as a blueprint for dealing with Taiwan.  In fact, with the passage of the national security law on Hong Kong, China has arguably moved a step closer to preparing for war with the island democracy that sits 90 miles off its coast.

 

Don’t take my word for it.  Listen to Li Su, the president of the Modern Think-Tank Forum and a prominent hard-liner in Beijing.  Following the passage of the law, Li took to Chinese social media to hail the law as a critical step in “liberating Taiwan.” Li is part of an influential group of scholars in China who support an armed solution to what they call “the Taiwan problem.”

 

Li has given speeches in Taiwan warning people on the island of China’s will to invade it.  In April 2019, Taiwan’s government barred him from returning to Taipei to give another speech because he had advocated the use of force.  Li also led a delegation of Chinese academics to the United States in 2019 to hammer home China’s intentions to take over the island.  When I met with him then, I was taken aback by the clarity of his message: “We are going to fight a war to reunite with Taiwan,” he told me.  He also chillingly predicted how China would launch its current crackdown in Hong Kong.

 

​In his lecture on Chinese social media, Li said he interpreted the Hong Kong security law as a “test case” on which China will model its takeover of Taiwan.  “We will learn how to control Taiwan by experimenting with this law on Hong Kong,” he declared.  “From the experiment on Hong Kong, we will tell the people on Taiwan that after we forcibly unite with you, we will have a way to deal with you.”  Simply put, that would consist of rounding up “your independence activists, democracy activists, students who cause trouble and bring them to the mainland to be sentenced.”  After that, Li asked, “who would dare oppose us?”  At least 10 people have already been arrested in Hong Kong under the new law, and Chinese officials said they could be tried in mainland Chinese courts.

 

​For years, China has used Hong Kong as a test case for its dealings with Taiwan.  In 1997, China agreed with Britain to resume control over Britain’s old colony of Hong Kong under a model that the Chinese government called “one country, two systems.”  Under that model, China promised to maintain Hong Kong’s freewheeling capitalist and more open political system for 50 years, an agreement that China is now accused of breaking.  China subsequently propose-

d to Taiwan that it follow the “one country, two systems” model to unite with China.  Today, a vast majority of Taiwanese, who live in one of Asia’s most vibrant democracies, reject any idea of uniting with mainland China.

 

​China claims Taiwan is part of China and has never abandoned the threat of force to take over the island.  China’s president, Xi Jinping, reiterated that vow in a speech on Jan. 1, 2019, declaring that China would “retain the option of taking all necessary measures” to absorb the island.  U.S. law requires that the U.S. government provide for Taiwan’s defense but stops short of requiring that American soldiers die for Taiwan.

 

There has been considerable speculation in China that Xi wants to solve “the Taiwan question” sometime near July of next year, when the Chinese Communist Party will celebrate its centenary.  Li said the promulgation of the security law last week basically confirmed that theory.  “Sometime around 2021,” Li predicted, “we are definitely going to liberate Taiwan.”

 

​Li and other like-minded hard-liners played down the reaction of Western nations, which were generally united in their condemnation of the Hong Kong law.  “China’s enemies are a group of a dragons without a head,” Li declared.  “The U.S. is already a hooligan nation.  How can a hooligan nation be a leader?  America doesn’t even qualify to be China’s opponent.  … What are they going to do, fight a war over Hong Kong?”