武漢肺炎》僅5.1％患者被偵測 專家估10天後武漢確診逾25萬人 自由20200126

【縛雞之見】

「僅占實際確診病例的5.1%」，意思是要乘上20，但可能不止。

「若控制措施不變」，怎麼可能變？最後，中國只好使出殺手鐧。

武漢肺炎》僅5.1％患者被偵測 專家估10天後武漢確診逾25萬人    自由20200126

中國國湖北武漢肺炎疫情爆發至今，已突破1300例，死亡41例。不過英美學者23日發表流行病學預估報告，指初目前公布的病例僅占實際確診病例的5.1%，若防疫措施不變，預估10天（2月4日）後，武漢確診病例將超過25萬人，同時疫情也將在中國其它城市爆發。

報告同時警告，包括台灣、香港、日本、南韓、泰國5地出現航空輸入疫情的風險，而中國政府就算對武漢進行封城禁止出入，也只能降低24.9％的感染病例數量。

該研究論文由英國蘭卡斯特大學 （Lancaster University）、蘇格蘭格拉斯哥大學英國醫學研究委員會病毒研究中心（MRC-University of Glasgow Centre for Virus Research），及美國佛羅里達大學（University of Florida）等5名學者共同發表，當中指出，目前武漢市區出現大量交叉感染，根本無法控制疫情散播，而要制止武漢肺炎個案上升，必須有效控制72至75%傳染個案，但估計，目前偵測到的患者數量，只佔實際個案的5.1%。

論文警告，若控制措施不變，估計肺炎將會在中國各城市爆發，國際間的病例也會上升。估計到了2月4日，即10日後，單是武漢的感染人數便會衝破25萬。武漢人口為1100萬，預計每100人就有超過2人受感染。

而根據武漢2017年1月飛機總運輸量數據，推估北京、上海、廣州、重慶、成都將有可能出現疫情爆發。其中，預估2月4日上海感染人數為590至1308人，平均數915人、北京507至1124人，平均數786人。

報告指出，助長疫情的原因之一，是本月中旬開始的全國春運，而上述推測數字是假設感染個案都是來自人傳人，因為武漢華南海鮮批發市場早已封閉，不可能在當地感染。

Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions    MedRXiV 20200123

View ORCID ProfileJonathan M Read,  View ORCID Profile Jessica RE Bridgen, Derek AT Cummings, Antonia Ho,  View ORCID Profile Chris P Jewell

Abstract

In December 2019, a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is thought to have emerged into the human population in Wuhan, China. The number of identified cases in Wuhan has increased rapidly since, and cases have been identified in other Chinese cities and other countries (as of 23 January 2020). We fitted a transmission model to reported case information up to 21 January to estimate key epidemiological measures, and to predict the possible course of the epidemic, as the potential impact of travel restrictions into and from Wuhan. We estimate the basic reproduction number of the infection (R_0) to be 3.8 (95% confidence interval, 3.6-4.0), indicating that 72-75% of transmissions must be prevented by control measures for infections to stop increasing. We estimate that only 5.1% (95%CI, 4.8-5.5) of infections in Wuhan are identified, and by 21 January a total of 11,341 people (prediction interval, 9,217-14,245) had been infected in Wuhan since the start of the year. Should the epidemic continue unabated in Wuhan, we predict the epidemic in Wuhan will be substantially larger by 4 February (191,529 infections; prediction interval, 132,751-273,649), infection will be established in other Chinese cities, and importations to other countries will be more frequent. Our model suggests that travel restrictions from and to Wuhan city are unlikely to be effective in halting transmission across China; with a 99% effective reduction in travel, the size of the epidemic outside of Wuhan may only be reduced by 24.9% on 4 February. Our findings are critically dependent on the assumptions underpinning our model, and the timing and reporting of confirmed cases, and there is considerable uncertainty associated with the outbreak at this early stage. With these caveats in mind, our work suggests that a basic reproductive number for this 2019-nCoV outbreak is higher compared to other emergent coronaviruses, suggesting that containment or control of this pathogen may be substantially more difficult.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549v1

Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding @DrEricDing

HOLY MOTHER OF GOD - the new coronavirus is a 3.8!!! How bad is that reproductive R0 value? It is thermonuclear pandemic level bad - never seen an actual virality coefficient outside of Twitter in my entire career. I’m not exaggerating... #WuhanCoronovirus #CoronavirusOutbreak

2/ “We estimate the basic reproduction number of the infection (R_0) to be 3.8 (95% confidence interval, 3.6-4.0), indicating that 72-75% of transmissions must be prevented by control measures for infections to stop increasing...

3/ ... We estimate that only 5.1% (95%CI, 4.8-5.5) of infections in Wuhan are identified, and by 21 January a total of 11,341 people (prediction interval, 9,217-14,245) had been infected in Wuhan since the start of the year. Should the epidemic continue unabated in Wuhan....

4/ we predict the epidemic in Wuhan will be substantially larger by 4 February (191,529 infections; prediction interval, 132,751-273,649), infection will be established in other Chinese cities, and importations to other countries will be more frequent. Our model suggests that..

5/ travel restrictions from and to Wuhan city are unlikely to be effective in halting transmission across China; with a 99% effective reduction in travel, the size of the epidemic outside of Wuhan may only be reduced by 24.9% on 4 February. Our findings are...

6/ ...critically dependent on the assumptions underpinning our model, and the timing and reporting of confirmed cases, and there is considerable uncertainty associated with the outbreak at this early stage. With these caveats in mind, our work suggests that...

7/ a basic reproductive number for this 2019-nCoV outbreak is higher compared to other emergent coronaviruses, suggesting that containment or control of this pathogen may be substantially more difficult.”!!!! #wuhanvirus #CoronavirusOutbreak #ChinaCoronaVirus ...

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100212907959